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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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ChrisV

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Also this 'human lives vs the economy' thing is one of the biggest false dichotomies I've ever seen.

It may be surprising but allowing 2-6 million people die and literally collapsing the healthcare infrastructure is not going to positively affect the economy.

We're F*cked either way. And the consensus among economists is that we're even more F*cked economically if we don't contain this.

Let me repost this:

A panel of 44 of the nations top economists were asked this to Agree/Disagree with the following statement:

"Lifting lockdowns will lead to greater economic damage than keeping the lockdown measures in place"

80% Agreed. 14% were Uncertain. 0% Disagreed.


31938



31937



Source:

University of Chicago – Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis
 

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Kak

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Also this 'human lives vs the economy' thing is one of the biggest false dichotomies I've ever seen.

It may be surprising but allowing 2-6 million people die and literally collapsing the healthcare infrastructure is not going to positively affect the economy.

We're F*cked either way. And the consensus among economists is that we're even more F*cked economically if we don't contain this.

Let me repost this:

A panel of 44 of the nations top economists were asked this to Agree/Disagree with the following statement:

"Lifting lockdowns will lead to greater economic damage than keeping the lockdown measures in place"

80% Agreed. 14% were Uncertain. 0% Disagreed.


31938



31937



Source:

University of Chicago – Policy for the COVID-19 Crisis
I think it is pretty well proven at this point that the economy vs deaths argument isn't the 1:1 relationship the communists would have everyone believe. You can have the economy functioning with precautions in place and not "let 2-6 million people die." An argument like that, at this point, is total straw. We don't even have a true death rate.

The fraction of a fraction of a fraction of lives that are saved by these policies are now known to be so few...

First of all you have a total case count... An unknown number definitely an order of magnitude higher than we know... It basically doesn't count non-clinical cases. This makes the death rate an order of magnitude lower.

NEXT... The prospect of survival for someone put on a ventilator is grim anyway. Suggesting about a 2/3 of people on ventilators do die.

That leaves the proportion of the 1/3 ultra critical cases that would live with ventilator treatment... Relative to how many people a hospital must turn away which is currently ZERO in the USA to my knowledge.

I am suggesting you let the economy move forward to the extent that hospitals don't turn people away. My method kills ZERO more people than a commie shutdown. People would still take personal responsibility for their safety and the curve would still be flatter, just not some snails pace lockdown.

Saying economic shutdowns save lives is correct, but only the fraction of the fraction of the fraction of the save-able people seeking treatment and can't get it. Saying economic shutdowns will save millions of lives is a total farce.
 
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Do you realize that this virus also kills young people, even those WITHOUT comorbidities??
Especially among doctors and health workers... I've read of quite a few.
And even among those not in healthcare professions.
And that is for mortality- death. For those that survive, some of them have significant residual complications, I've read of a young person in his 30s with no comorbidities that had to be discharged home permanently on oxygen supplementation via an oxygen machine, for God knows how long. There's no guarantee that he'll be able to get off that oxygen machine for the rest of his life...he may be oxygen dependent for life because of pulmonary fibrosis- scar tissue in the lungs from attempts at healing.
So, the claim that it does not affect young people is incorrect, ...yes it's often less severe in them, but even among them, it can cause significant havoc if left to run amok.
And yes, a significant number of young to middle aged people also have some comorbidities- notably asthma, with some others having diabetes, hypertension and immunosuppressive conditions.
So, you might want to exercise some caution in proposing that strategy as the panacea to the current situation.
What’s the death rate for young people bossman? 0.0005%?
 

ChrisV

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I think it is pretty well proven at this point that the economy vs deaths argument isn't the 1:1 relationship the communists would have everyone believe. You can have the economy functioning with precautions in place and not "let 2-6 million people die." An argument like that, at this point, verging on straw.

The fraction of a fraction of a fraction of lives that are saved by these policies are now known to be so few...

First of all you have a total case count... An unknown number definitely an order of magnitude higher than we know... It basically doesn't count non-clinical cases. This makes the death rate an order of magnitude lower.

NEXT... The prospect of survival for someone put on a ventilator is grim anyway. Suggesting about a 2/3 of people on ventilators do die.

That leaves the proportion of the 1/3 ultra-critical cases that would live with ventilator treatment... Relative to how many people a hospital must turn away which is currently ZERO in the USA to my knowledge.

I am suggesting you let the economy move forward to the extent that hospitals don't turn people away. My method kills ZERO more people than a commie shutdown. People would still take personal responsibility for their safety and the curve would still be flatter, just not some snails pace lockdown.

Saying economic shutdowns save lives is correct, but only the fraction of the fraction of the fraction of the save-able people seeking treatment and can't get it. Saying economic shutdowns will save millions of lives is a total farce.
According to what data? The initial US projections death toll was 2.2 million (from the Imperial College,) and there were various projections after that. Some saying 4 million, some saying 6.

Now when you run those same numbers with the social distancing measures, these are the numbers you get:

31993

 

Kak

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According to what data? The initial US projections death toll was 2.2 million (from the Imperial College,) and there were various projections after that. Some saying 4 million, some saying 6.

Now when you run those same numbers with the social distancing measures, these are the numbers you get:

View attachment 31993

Because saying projections are factual just because economists and "experts" say so doesn't give us a total case count or an accurate death rate.

What happens is that experts do their best to extrapolate given the data that they have... Then through telephone, people turn what they say into "undeniable fact" when the entire thing was built on shaky and unknown numbers to begin with.

If you prolong the economic carnage for 6 more months you aren't going to have an economy to come back to.
 

ChrisV

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Because saying projections are factual just because economists and "experts" say so doesn't give us a total case count or an accurate death rate.
Of course projections aren't perfect.. they're projections. But it's the best we have. Otherwise we're just relying on our intuition about what might happen.
 

Kak

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Of course projections aren't perfect.. they're projections. But it's the best we have. Otherwise we're just relying on our intuition about what might happen.
First of all social distancing measures and total lockdowns are two different things. People will continue to socially distance on their own... Per their own comfort level.

My claims, with any projections, are correct... These measures only save lives to the extent that 1/3 of ultra severe, touch and go cases get turned away from hospitals.

THAT is the only true relationship between economy and COVID deaths.

CONTROLLED BURN is the way out. We must use unused hospital capacity.

More recoveries= further out of this mess.
 
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WillHurtDontCare

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Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.
 

ChrisV

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Well I choose to listen to people who have spent their lives studying the spread of infectious disease.

Let's all agree to disagree.

The numbers have changed because of the various actions we've taken. The first rule of statistics is "always account for variable change."

But anyway..

/unfollowed again
 

Kak

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Well I choose to listen to people who have spent their lives studying the spread of infectious disease.

Let's all agree to disagree.

The numbers have changed because of the various actions we've taken. The first rule of statistics is "always account for variable change."

But anyway..

/unfollowed again
If no one has been denied a ventilator yet, the experts can't point to a single life saved by economic shutdown. On the other end of that spectrum we can point to more than 10 million out of work.

Last I checked, doctors aren't economists and economists aren't doctors...

I stand by this... The relationship between covid deaths and the economy comes down to ventilator availability. Something we have a HELL of a lot more of.
 

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Well I choose to listen to people who have spent their lives studying the spread of infectious disease.

Let's all agree to disagree.

The numbers have changed because of the various actions we've taken. The first rule of statistics is "always account for variable change."

But anyway..

/unfollowed again
It's s a straw man argument. The two choices were :
1. The sky is falling or
2. The sky didn't fall because people wore facemasks

There's a third alternative. It wasn't what the media told you it was. Did people get sick? Yes. Did people die? Shitty, but yes. Was the entire population at dire risk of dying if they didn't bathe nightly in Purell?

Some areas have done so incredibly well that the virus was contained. Some of the measures were extreme, some worked, and some were an overkill power grab.

You have to be intellectually honest enough to look past the rhetoric at the results. The spread is slowing. We're not going to let the economy go towards totalitarianism to mitigate a virus war that is being methodically defeated. We'll be better prepared for future events, and we'll be better off personally and collectively for this scare.
 
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Kak

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Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.
Agree.

I didn't set out to grill @GIlman or find out where he has been wrong in the past or go on a fact checking mission. For the most part we agreed on how this is pretty messed up right now. The policy response has been downright frightening. He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.
 

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Agree.

I didn't set out to grill @GIlman or find out where he has been wrong in the past or go on a fact checking mission. For the most part we agreed on how this is pretty messed up right now. The policy response has been downright frightening. He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.
@GIlman and I can get back to agreeing on 99% of what makes the Fastlane possible for all who seek it. And, there are silver linings in this reset that in a post Covid America people will be able to harness for personal and collective gain.
 

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I am excited for what America has in front of her. And, we're now in a better position than EVER to help the rest of the world.
 

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It's certainly a factor.
What other assumptions can we operate under? The vaccine is over a year out. The treatment is already available and being tested.

So yes.. If you isolated everyone and the disease died out without reaching any more people... YES then that relationship changes... But you can't operate under that assumption because with jailing people in their homes indefinitely with no interpersonal interaction at all, we will starve to death before COVID would.

We are basing the assumption "less deaths because of these lock downs" on a temporary condition. The root of the problem isn't solved. The curve might be flatter, but the same amount of people eventually get this and the same ratio of people eventually die.
 
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Rivoli

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Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.
N O T H I N G B U R G E R !!!

I’m am proud of myself for sticking to my guns and following my gut dispite massive pushback...a trait all entrepreneurs need to do.

Trump was smart and tried to play it off as “just a flu” but people got to butthurt about it, and shut themselves in the face. The same people that demanded action (quarantine) are the same people who are going to be unemployed begging for rent forbearance in like 3 weeks.
 

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.

The financial system is getting messy, between the stimulus, the money printing, and the FED interventions. Lest we remember, there's two contagions at work, the health contagion, and the economic one.
 

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.
Not sure if you caught it but Cuomo said at the presser that he’s being having “good results” from the trials they are doing.
 

ChrisV

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I have no idea what the media is or isn't saying. I watch the news for all of 5 minutes and then get a headache.

The initial projections of X Million were "if no action was taken." No one ever claimed that X Million will die no matter what.

We will never see that number becase some action is going to be taken. Whether it be social distancing by personal choice or shutdowns.

When we make these projections it's a lot like a mathematical formula.

Take a simply Equation x * y * z / q = p

You change any one of those numbers, the output changes significantly. We have to change all these numbers based on new data that comes in.

How fast a virus is spreading is the R0 rate. If people change their behavior and that R0 rate becomes less, we not have to factor that into the equation. So as new data comes in, we change the models based on those new numbers.

The initial projections were based on the typical R0 rate of COVID-19. The rate of infections has leveled off a lot.

31996

Which is part of the reason the initial estimate was 2.2 million, now it's ~100,000. Even the 100,000 number could change drastically based on what happens.

And R0 is only one single input into these projection models. For example the Case Fatality Rate, in the beginning was 2%. Now with the hospitals at capacity the CFR is over 12%.

This is just to give a sense of how much these models change based on now information.

We almost have this Catch-22. Even if everything we did worked and no-one died, people would be like "Look! We took all that action and no one died! We did all this for nothing!" It's circular reasoning.
 

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.

The financial system is getting messy, between the stimulus, money printing, and FED interventions. Lest we remember, there's two contagions at work, the health contagion, and the economic one.
One crazy side bar is Kyle told me about that drug 30 days before Trump mentioned it

Must be nice to have lobbyists on your payroll @Kak
 

ChrisV

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What other assumptions can we operate under?
The # of ventilators is one aspect, but the # of people infected is also a factor because that increases the need for ventilators. At the end of the day, we don't want the demand to outweigh the supply.

If we can change either of those numbers (the supply or the demand) the problem can be mitigated somewhat.

That's assuming the ventilators are saving 100% of the people who are put on them (they're not, but that's a different discussion)

He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.
I don't know if the lockdown measures are the absolute best course of action.

I honestly don't know dick about a lot of things.

So I have to make a choice:

• form an opinion about something I'm not fully educated on or
• trust the experts in those fields

Right now what I see is medical professionals and economists agreeing that lifting the lockdowns would be dangerous. And since I can't realistically go get a degree in both fields, I just have to trust the consensus. I'm a believer in division of labor.. so I just say let the doctors be the doctors, let the epidemiologists be the epidemiologists, and let the economists be the economists.

I can't be an expert on everything. I just have to trust that these people know what they're doing.

Regarding 'slow burn' - there is something to be said about letting people get infected and as I mentioned before the UK floated that idea. But in the same breath, they had to drop it because even that would have overwhelmed their hospital system.

There are a bunch of articles on it. uk herd immunity - Google Search
 
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Kak

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.

The financial system is getting messy, between the stimulus, the money printing, and the FED interventions. Lest we remember, there's two contagions at work, the health contagion, and the economic one.
The end of crisis... Personally no, I don't think so...

The beginning of the end of misguided policies, I am optimistic.

It is never going to be a switch that flips and we can all just go back to normal life. This is going to be a process.
 

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The end of crisis... Personally no, I don't think so...

The beginning of the end of misguided policies, I am optimistic.

It is never going to be a switch that flips and we can all just go back to normal life. This is going to be a process.
I think like the other strains of CoronaVirus (and flu, and Sars, and others) this will be around a LONG TIME but the mitigation is underway. They had to break the back of the pandemic until they knew what they were dealing with. The breakthroughs are on the immediate horizon. I don't think this will be eradicated, and the net gain for society will be of great benefit for future similar circumstances - beauty from horrific ashes.
 

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The same people that demanded action (quarantine) are the same people who are going to be unemployed begging for rent forbearance in like 3 weeks.
I can’t bring myself to like a nothingburger post... But this is gold. :rofl:
 

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Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.
I would say in general @Kak and I agree on most things, but also I want to point out that it’s way way early to be calling the end of this. You know that all the new projections of ~100,000 deaths is based on the assumption that this quarantine lasts well into August? The models still project very high death rates if quarantines are dropped now. Could the models be wrong, yes!!!

But one other thing that has also come to light is that ventilators are not terribly effective treatment. If people require a ventilator, their odds of survival are somewhere 20-50%.

I’m all for getting the economy back on track, and I’m sure we will see how it pans out. This has cost me more $ than the extreme majority of people, so I would love things to return to normal. But we are probably 5 minutes into this basketball game, so I think on any side it’s way early to be assuming the outcome.

@Vigilante glad to see you back in the discussion.
 
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Kak

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GIlman

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Agree.

I didn't set out to grill @GIlman or find out where he has been wrong in the past or go on a fact checking mission. For the most part we agreed on how this is pretty messed up right now. The policy response has been downright frightening. He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.
I would say my perspective is the disease is still very scary, the stats still look bad, New York has a significant problem and is likely going to have a long time before they can get back completely to normal.

But there are patterns of higher and lower risk areas we can identify and work on dealing with those in a more case by case basis. This has been a change in my thinking on this subject. So it’s the solution to the problem more than the outlook of the disease itself that has been changing with me over time. As I’ve said before the big question right now is how much subclinical disease is there. Right now anyone who says they know this is lying, the data is very sparse and what little data we have had some problems. This will be the thing that really determines the outcome.

But, I Have and will continue to change my belief and opinions over time. We all can only deal with the best information and experiences we have at any given time. No one is 100% right or 100% wrong all the time, but as time goes on if your rational you’re work to reject some things you had initially accepted and accept some things you had initially rejected.

But I think, and have always thought the government is terrible and uses situations to bad effect. I am very libertarian in nature, I generally want the government out of as much as possible.
 

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View attachment 31999
There's a segment of the population that would prefer lesser money on unemployment vs. marginal increased income derived from working. Those are the incentives that need to go away. Congress literally approved an unemployment package that pays recipients MORE than they were earning during full employment.
 

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