- Aug 24, 2007
Wow, the fact that they got a very simple, but very important part of the mathematical equation for "death rate" completely wrong is very concerning...Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with COVID-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, Chinawww.worldometers.info
From the article:
This is completely inaccurate. Here's an analogy:*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).
Imagine there's a test being given to 100 people. And imagine that after 10 people finish the test, turn it in and get graded, we find that 2 of the 10 have passed the test.
Since 2 of 100 people have passed, can we now say that 2% of the people who took the test will pass it?
Of course not. We still have 90 people who haven't yet completed their test and turned it in to be graded. Most likely our pass ratio will be closer to 20% (the 2 in 10 number) than 2%.
This is what that "Death Rate" statistic above is doing. Basically, it is dividing the number of people who have died by the number of people infected. But, that denominator -- the number of people infected -- include a LOT of people who we don't have an outcome for. They haven't died, but they also haven't recovered.
They are the ones who -- based on this analogy -- are still taking the test!
That Death Rate is accurate if -- and only if -- every single person who has gotten the virus, but who hasn't yet died, ends up not dying. And that's obviously not going to be the case.
In reality, the "Death Rate" should be calculated as:
Where the number of RESOLVED CASES is the total number of people who have either died or fully recovered.*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of RESOLVED CASES).
Btw, if you do *that* math, we find that the Death Rate would be between 18-20%.
Though, in reality, that's the upper bound, and it's probably lower than that, simply because the number of deaths will be much more accurately reported than the number of recoveries (many people will recover without ever getting diagnosed).
So, 2% is the lower bound; 20% is the upper bound; and the real number is somewhere in-between.
Unfortunately, with the majority of people "still taking the test," it's really hard to know exactly what the Death Rate is right now.
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