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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Here’s how our friends in China are treating the masks they sell to us
Have you seen the videos of how Americans treat the packages they are delivering you or the food they are making you?

It's one human doing something dumb, happens all the time, in every country. But by all means if you want to start making masks go for it.
 

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GIlman

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The creativity of restrictions in certain countries has been going through the roof recently, with some countries getting dangerously close to total martial law and/or Chinese-style restrictions (or some ridiculous measures that make little sense).

Some examples:

Poland - minors under the age of 18 can only go outside accompanied by an adult (source: Coronavirus: France's daily COVID-19 death toll doubles in a week). Is Mr. Coronavirus going to kidnap them?

Panama - super restricted shopping hours, other than that you can only stay within the perimeter of your property (no walking anywhere whatsoever which is much more restrictive than Spain and Italy). Just 2-hour windows of time for people to grocery shop, get medicines, or deal with medical emergencies based on the last digit of their cedula number or passport.

More details (source: COVID-19 Panama Information | U.S. Embassy in Panama):



St Kitts & Nevis - 24-hour curfew between March 31 and April 3, and if I understand it correctly, you can't even go grocery shopping (source: COVID-19: PM Harris announces 24-hour curfew for St Kitts & Nevis). Heard of the same 24-hour curfew being implemented for a WHOLE WEEK, between April 2 and 9, on Antigua & Barbuda (source:
View: https://www.facebook.com/BarbadosToday/photos/a.10152250721478191/10157463753178191/
).

Not sure if this is mostly a Caribbean thing for now but many nations in the region are now implementing some kind of a curfew. In Barbados it's between 8 pm and 6 am (so far between March 28 and April 15).

The worst part is that not everyone is following the restrictions and there might be further restrictions which is extremely frustrating given how nonsensical some of the rules are.

For example, supermarkets in Barbados (and I assume in many places around the world) only allow a certain number of customers. The rest waits in a line in front of the supermarket (many of them closer than 6 ft). And now the best part - in a local supermarket, the same bodyguard opens and closes door for everyone, pretty much leaning into every person entering and leaving the building (imagine if this guy is infected).

Supermarkets have now shorter opening hours (for non-vulnerable, between 10 AM - 5 PM instead of regular 8 AM - 9 PM), meaning that there are more people shopping at the same time. What is this supposed to accomplish?

I feel that a lot of the restrictions are introduced blindly, without really thinking through if they make any sense or provide any real reduction in risk (or maybe even actually increase it). There are at least several countries with very few or virtually no restrictions that fare well despite getting first cases a long time ago so it's clear that restrictions aren't the only answer (if they're the answer at all considering their immense cost).

I wonder if increasing restrictions are going to be implemented in other countries as well. I also wonder when countries start questioning these restrictions and asking themselves if they're really effective because it's starting to look like a race who can restrict more freedoms (regardless if it makes any sense).

I wholeheartedly agree.
Someone Needs to design a hat that projects a 6 ft radius ring around people. That flashes red if anyone violates the perimeter with big bold backup warnings on red projected on the pavement. So many opportunities when social norms are being shattered.

maybe a dumb idea. Maybe a million dollar winner. But helps solve a problem of helping to establish social distancing.
 

James Klymus

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I also wonder when countries start questioning these restrictions and asking themselves if they're really effective because it's starting to look like a race who can restrict more freedoms (regardless if it makes any sense).
What's also worrying is the fact that it seems officials are starting to use stronger wording in their statements:

As Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said: “We are no longer asking or suggesting Marylanders to stay home. We are directing them.”


Especially since the draconian shelter in place order that is in effect until June 10th in Virginia, If I was a resident of that state, I would seriously be considering protesting this executive order. I would also assume that civil unrest is basically bound to happen at this point, Since they have been shown to protest ideas that they don't believe in with the gun control protests.

 

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Someone Needs to design a hat that projects a 6 ft radius ring around people. That flashes red if anyone violates the perimeter with big bold backup warnings on red projected on the pavement. So many opportunities when social norms are being shattered.

maybe a dumb idea. Maybe a million dollar winner. But helps solve a problem of helping to establish social distancing.
Maybe get this guy in on it: Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device
 

Rivoli

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Have you seen the videos of how Americans treat the packages they are delivering you or the food they are making you?

It's one human doing something dumb, happens all the time, in every country. But by all means if you want to start making masks go for it.
Dude, China is US enemy number 1. If you haven’t realized that yet you’re blind as hell.
 

ChrisV

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Re: that guys comment in the tweet.. Manufacturing Jobs will never come back to the United States. People
in the US want $15/hr for working at KFC. People at a manufacturing plant will demand like $25/hr.

You know what manufacturing jobs pay? $4.50/hr. All those jobs moved elsewhere because the United States improved so much economically that we simply have better jobs now. Our Per capita income is 5x what it was when the US was doing manufacturing.

Those small wages were okay in the 1950s but now $5/hr is nothing.

The rust belt closed because those were good jobs in 1950 but life has improved so much that sweatshop labor is no longer that enticing.

I don’t see why people are so eager to bring back sweatshop labor. No one in the United States is ever going to work for $4.50/hr, so I’m not sure why it’s even a relevant conversation.

4586EC04-9F06-4AB4-BD74-718D0C7F23A7.png
 

Rivoli

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Manufacturing Jobs will never come back to the United States. People
in the US want $15/hr for working at KFC. People at a manufacturing plat will demand like $25/hr.

You know what manufacturing jobs pay? $4.50/hr. All those jobs moved elsewhere because the United States improved so much economically that we simply have better jobs now. Our Per capita income

Thise small wages were okay in the 1950s but now $5/hr is nothing.

The rust belt closed because those were good jobs in 1950 but life has improved so much that sweatshop labor is no longer that enticing.

I don’t see why people are so eager to bring back sweatshop labor. No one in the United States is ever going to work for $4.50/hr, so I’m not sure why it’s even a relevant conversation.

View attachment 31710
So unbelievably wrong.
big reply coming soon
 

GIlman

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What's also worrying is the fact that it seems officials are starting to use stronger wording in their statements:

As Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said: “We are no longer asking or suggesting Marylanders to stay home. We are directing them.”


Especially since the draconian shelter in place order that is in effect until June 10th in Virginia, If I was a resident of that state, I would seriously be considering protesting this executive order. I would also assume that civil unrest is basically bound to happen at this point, Since they have been shown to protest ideas that they don't believe in with the gun control protests.

I’ve been saying this for a month. Just watch other countries. Maslow's heirarchy is super useful in these situations. When societies are operating at high levels there is a huge difference between cultures and ways of approaching the world.

When you get to level 2 - safety and level 1 - survival then people revet more and more to instinct and primal nature. In these situations it’s highly instructive to look at other populations because human primal nature and instincts are nearly identical no matter where you live.

Back at the beginning of March I made this prediction for the US based on simply looking at italy and realizing what Maslow level changes were coming from. Here is what I said back then.

My bet is tonight (or in the very near future) that trump closes all boarders to the US and halts all or nearly all international flights.

Sometime in the not to distant future travel between states will be severely limited, and in all likelihood at some point either tonight or within the coming weeks all planes will be grounded.

We will see mass quarantines, that begin initially as recommendations, escalating to full scale military style quarantines.


I expect the hit to businesses will be massive from disruption of incoming supply chain, followed by lost wages, inability to buy, and restricted movement.”

Obviously some of these things have not happened yet, but things have steadily moved that way. And until this pandemic has played out I still think they are highly likely.

The question right now is how desperate the situation in the US becomes. Expect the response of people in the US to parallel any other population around the world in similar desperate situations.

Hopefully we figure out a way to short circuit the process and not go all the way down the Italy pandemic route.

The issue at the moment is how do we balance the desire (or need) for quarantine and get back to work. If you quarantine people don’t get infected. If you resume normal life people get quarantined. The two at this time are mutually exclusive.
 
Last edited:

Jon L

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Several eastern European countries, plus Australia are now suggesting that people wear masks in public. This is to prevent people that are asymptomatic from spreading the disease


 

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Someone Needs to design a hat that projects a 6 ft radius ring around people. That flashes red if anyone violates the perimeter with big bold backup warnings on red projected on the pavement. So many opportunities when social norms are being shattered.
LOL - I was playing around the other day with a battery operated 6 foot radius taser belt design along the lines of the old hoop dresses from days of old. Can you imagine people walking down the street with a bell shaped dome of metal sending a little "keep out" shock to anyone that touches it? Maybe not such a stupid idea after all? :playful:
 

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reedracer

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LOL - I was playing around the other day with a battery operated 6 foot radius taser belt design along the lines of the old hoop dresses from days of old. Can you imagine people walking down the street with a bell shaped dome of metal sending a little "keep out" shock to anyone that touches it? Maybe not such a stupid idea after all? :playful:
Might keep the dog off the bed, too! ROFL.

One neat thing I've seen is as awareness of PPE needs grows, some people are thinking outside the paper/nitrile single use paradigm.
(I couldn't find the article I was thinking of so I pasted this link just because)
 

GIlman

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Might keep the dog off the bed, too! ROFL.

One neat thing I've seen is as awareness of PPE needs grows, some people are thinking outside the paper/nitrile single use paradigm.
(I couldn't find the article I was thinking of so I pasted this link just because)
At some point in time people in Japan, Korea, Vietnam, etc didn’t wear masks. Now they are very common. I wonder if they will become commonplace and the US and what product opportunities there may be going foreword.
 

Andy Black

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Somehow, it struck me as funny that you're posting numbers, and the very first thing your signature says is 'never worry about numbers.' :)

But yeah ... those numbers are scary. And we're just getting started. I'm hopeful that with all the shut downs, the trend will be improving in the next few weeks.
These are worrying numbers indeed. Each one of them is a life and a family.

Most people don't understand exponential, that the few days wasted at the start are the same few days with *massive* increase later on.

I'm worried for the US in particular.

31724
 

Jon L

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These are worrying numbers indeed. Each one of them is a life and a family.

Most people don't understand exponential, that the few days wasted at the start are the same few days with *massive* increase later on.

I'm worried for the US in particular.

View attachment 31724
yeah. Its pretty bad. What's interesting is that here in the Seattle area, things are not blowing up like they are in NYC. We were first in the nation, I think (or pretty close to it), as far as cases of the virus. Really soon after things started growing around here, Microsoft and Amazon, both huge employers locally, sent all their employees home. Others followed.

Certain areas of the US will be pretty drastically affected. Others won't be.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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I have a rant. I’m sorry but what the CDC did with the masks is downright criminal - or should be.

They went around telling everyone “surgical masks aren’t effective at all” which is complete and utter bullshit; they just didn’t trust Americans to not horde masks (although considering what people did with Toilet Paper, that probably is a valid concern.)

Point is: don’t lie to people.

I’m not a huge Fox (or CNN fan,) but Tucker Carlson had a great rant on this exact subject:


A surgical masks probably offers 10-20% more protection than if you did nothing. if worn properly and you make sure there’s a good seal and no air escaping I’d guesstimate that number goes up to ~40 or 50%.

Furthermore the masks stop people from touching their faces, which is considered the weak point for the virus to enter your body. You don’t even realize how much you touch your face. This video illustrates how much we touch our face even when we’re trying not to.

The CDC legitimately made people feel like wearing a mask was pure superstition. Like wearing a mask was just as effective as carrying a rabbits foot.

CDC is like “Surgical masks are ineffective, don’t walk under ladders, don’t open an umbrella indoors... and make sure to not break any mirrors.”

The CDC: “surgical masks aren’t effective. please leave all these masks for the doctors. we don’t want to put the healthcare workers risk, so PLEASE leave all these completely ineffective, useless masks for them so they don’t get sick!”

Yes, the healthcare workers DO need them more than us, but don’t f—-ing lie to us to get your way. This is the reason people don’t trust the government and you see so many batshit insane conspiracy theories.

Oh and even better is “No we’re not ordering masks from China. they’re not as good as the ones produced in America.” So we have no masks rather than ones that might be 10% less effective. “ We’re not ordering those crappy masks, so you can walk around with 0% protection rather than the 88% efficacy of those crappy INFERIOR chinese masks.”

Here’s a great one too: “the masks are only effective at stopping people who are infected at spreading it“ ... well isn’t that the entire f—-ing problem??? There needs to be a law passed that you’re not allowed in public without something covering your face - whether it be a mask or a scarf. Grocery shopping, anything. Studies show that 80% of people who caught it, caught it from someone who was displaying NO symptoms.

People China are ALL wearing masks. Perhaps that’s partly responsible for their successful containment?

View attachment 31703

View attachment 31702

China:

View attachment 31704

Japan:

View attachment 31705

South Korea:

View attachment 31706

Perhaps when you have a pandemic who’s spread is 80% due to asymptomatic transmission (no visible symptoms) maybe doing everything you can to make sure those who DO have it don’t spread it is a good idea? Even if it doesn’t protect the wearer (i believe it does) from a population standpoint, it would be very helpful. I’d really like to see a law that prohibits people from being in public without some type of covering (whether it be a mask or a scarf or washable mask) to be enacted. If we had that we might even be able to slightly loosen some of the quarantine.

Anyway /rant
Holy shit... just found this:

31726


@GIlman
 

Jon L

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LOL - I was playing around the other day with a battery operated 6 foot radius taser belt design along the lines of the old hoop dresses from days of old. Can you imagine people walking down the street with a bell shaped dome of metal sending a little "keep out" shock to anyone that touches it? Maybe not such a stupid idea after all? :playful:
This could be cool too...

 

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So how ****ed are we when The quarantine lifts and it just spreads again
 

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GIlman

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So how ****ed are we when The quarantine lifts and it just spreads again
Yes exactly. Some input into the models has to change or all we did was pause the inevitable.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Somehow, it struck me as funny that you're posting numbers, and the very first thing your signature says is 'never worry about numbers.' :)
I've been looking for an excuse to post about Goodhart's Law.

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."

Andy is right - the numbers don't matter - whatever they're describing does.

(I know you get that, I just wanted to post this because it's worth keeping in mind because it is easy to forget.)
 

ChrisV

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Yes exactly. Some input into the models has to change or all we did was pause the inevitable.
well according to @Tortellini this is all a big Air Whopper with Nil Sauce so the outputs will be zero to the nothingth power regardless
 

Kak

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well according to @Tortellini this is all a big Air Whopper with Nil Sauce so the outputs will be zero to the nothingth power regardless
I wasn't the only one thinking meat stuffed pasta every time I looked at this thread. LMAO!!! :rofl:
 

ChrisV

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guys can you do me a favor... just post this link to your Facebook... Twitter.. whatever. I genuinely believe that with good masks we can beat this thing and perhaps even be able to lift the quarantines earlier

 

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BTW...Did Andrew get his 12 books in 12 months out? :(
Just curious, how's the situation in Malaysia now? They lockdown till 15 Apr, but is the situation on the ground getting better?

Between this and having zero masks, I would rather wear these.
 

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Just curious, how's the situation in Malaysia now? They lockdown till 15 Apr, but is the situation on the ground getting better?
More recoveries, fewer deaths (than the feared spike in Italy).

Stimulus package announced, but it seems to favour lower-income earners more than SMEs.

Even if the government were to act on peoples feedback and adjust, I’m anticipating a Forrest Gump-shrimp boat scenario, where a typhoon wipes out most of the SME folks on the water, and leaves the Gump boats that kept going (with steady marketing and such).

Markets and essential shops are still opened, as well as some manufacturing businesses (running at 50% capacity only though)

But we had a major market in Penang or Taiping shut down, because the folks just weren’t keeping social distancing, and were mingling around even after shopping.

I have heard some worrying cases of crime in my hometown, especially when you think of laborers or foreigners who are desperate for cash, after their livelihoods got shut down.

But so far these cases are nothing compared to the insanity in other countries:


 

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