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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Madame Peccato

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Italy crossed the 10.000 deaths yesterday, and the virus is spreading in nursing homes now.

It has been killing roughly around 600-700 people daily (consider that on average around 1.600-1.700 people die in Italy every day) for the past 10 days, and we've been on lockdown for a while.
 

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Found a video of how India is enforcing its lockdown.
Looks like they've got a new strategy now:

 

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Yesterday an Amber Alert was sent out in NE Florida advising anyone over 65 to remain indoors. This was very odd, as if some wave of flu virus was about to pass over the city. Making it even more odd, other than no "in" dining, large crowds and social events, we are not under some of the strict isolation measures (shut down) that many cities and counties are under. My 77 year old neighbor was confused as all get out.
 

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What if some of those 20 people need to resort to crime just to put some food on the table?
I hate to be right about this...


Some concerning stories (the parts in bold by me):

Police descend on a supermarket after reports people have stolen food to feed themselves, as patience turns to desperation.
Another video has been shared around the country showing a father with his young daughter addressing the Italian prime minister, saying: "It's already 15-20 days that we've been inside and we're at our limit."

He gestures to his little girl who is eating a piece of bread and says: "Like my daughter, other children in a few days won't be able to eat this bit of bread. Rest assured, you will regret this because we're going to have a revolution."
Images have also emerged of police descending on supermarkets in Palermo in Sicily after reports people have started stealing to feed themselves. And groups have been set up in the last few days on social media to organise raids of supermarkets.
"Discomfort and malaise are growing and we are recording worrying reports of protest and anger that is being exploited by criminals who want to destabilise the system," said Leoluca Orlando.

"The more time passes, the more resources are exhausted. The few savings people have are running out. This tells us socio-economic issues will erupt."
Granted, at the moment it seems this is mostly limited to Italy, and particularly Southern Italy where organized crime is pretty much a part of society.

But still, civil unrest is eventually expected if you're taking away so many freedoms (and coupling it with a never-ending barrage of bad news, no hope, panic, fear, etc.).

A couple of weeks might be manageable, but after that people will get so tired of the restrictions that the situations cited above will become more and more common around the world.
 

EVMaso

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Looks like they've got a new strategy now:

I guess that's better than physical beatings?
 

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In other "news"...

 

1milclub

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Light at the end ... ?

NY Doctor Successfully Treats Patients: Zero Deaths, Zero Hospitalizations, Zero Intubations

He sent the letter to the president and the medical community around the world.
--------
Excerpt:
"My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:

Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days

The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.

Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.

Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.

In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.

With much respect,

Dr. Zev Zelenko

Board Certified Family Practitioner

cc: President Donald J. Trump; Mr. Mark Meadows, Chief of Staff"
 
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EVMaso

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GIlman

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Light at the end ... ?

NY Doctor Successfully Treats Patients: Zero Deaths, Zero Hospitalizations, Zero Intubations

He sent the letter to the president and the medical community around the world.
--------
Excerpt:
"My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:

Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days

The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.

Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.

Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.

In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.

With much respect,

Dr. Zev Zelenko

Board Certified Family Practitioner

cc: President Donald J. Trump; Mr. Mark Meadows, Chief of Staff"
I am hopeful that something like this works. There are theoretical in vitro (cell culture) reason it MIGHT.

However I am skeptical of this particular report as providing credible evidence, there are a large # of things that make me say this.

1) They treated 500 people under the assumption that 65% of people were infected. 65% positive test rate is much much higher positive test rate than anything I’ve seen reported. They tested 200, and based on their report approx 130 were positive - which is where the presumable derive this 65% figure.

2) They make a statement that there are 35,000 in their population, and based on their 65% positive infection rate, estimate 20,000 infected in the community. But, tests are made when people have symptoms. So even if there is a 65% infection rate, that would be of symptomatic people. So they extending that to the entire population which is nonsensical to start with and makes me seriously question all their assumptions.

2) Based on their description they tested based on symptoms, they said they treated 500 patients, but based on above did not test, so a large # of the people that they treated did not have Covid to begin with.

3) There is no indication how long they followed these patients, were any lost to follow up, have they retested any to prove they were virus free (based on #of tests they reports doing) it is obvious they have not.

4) There was no control, there was no placebo, there was no randomization. Lack of each one of theses makes the results less credible and prone to errors.

I sincerely hope that this treatment does prove successful, I just want to point out many reasons that makes me believe this report isn’t reliable at all. Right now in NY they are doing hrdroxychloroquine/azithromycin trial, which is being conducted correctly. This will be the first credible answer we will have.

However, as stated before, these drugs have been used a long time, tend to be tolerated well, and there is a plausible cellular mechanism how they could be effective treatment. Given the low risk of taking them and the relatively high risk of coronavirus, I would still be personally desirous of taking these medication if I tested positive.
 

MJ DeMarco

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The Trump admin just extended the "social distancing" guidelines to April 30th indicating that the economic standstill could continue another month. In what could be called an optimistic statement, he also "hoped" that the peak would occur around Easter time.

As with all data and/or statements, I look to the "money" to see how impactful/truthful/meaningful the information is: The stock futures are down about 2.2% which, IMO, isn't too terrible. Perhaps this information is already baked in... but the night is still early, lets hope we don't get another "Black Monday".
 

Trevor Kuntz

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My 80-year-old grandfather is in the ER here in Phoenix. He has been sick for 10 days with what was suspected to be a regular cold. His condition worsened today, so he was taken to the ER, administered the CV test, and now we are waiting 3-5 days for results. My grandmother is not showing symptoms, but has been in close proximity to him regularly. Not sure how he was infected, as they have been in self-quarantined for 2 weeks now, but it’s not looking so great.
 

GIlman

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My 80-year-old grandfather is in the ER here in Phoenix. He has been sick for 10 days with what was suspected to be a regular cold. His condition worsened today, so he was taken to the ER, administered the CV test, and now we are waiting 3-5 days for results. My grandmother is not showing symptoms, but has been in close proximity to him regularly. Not sure how he was infected, as they have been in self-quarantined for 2 weeks now, but it’s not looking so great.
There is a game changer on the works, and it’s not a therapy. There is a test now approved arhat they are shipping supplies for that offers a 5-15 minute result.

This makes a big difference for the following reason:

1) identify infected patients in isolation outside before they enter the hospital to decrease in hospital spread.
2) regularly test health care workers to prevent in hospital or nursing home spread.
3) increase speed to test, quarantine, and do contact tracing.
4) gives new options to try and open the economy in different ways. Maybe we can reopen international flights by testing everyone on arrival. The logistics of a lot of this of course is hard.

I see these new rapid tests opening the door to lots of innovative practices and procedures to get back to normal quicker.

There is also some early suggestions that amount of exposure (i.e. # viruses) someone is exposed to impacts how severe their illness is and their outcome. It makes one wonder if some ancient practices such as variolation might be useful.

Variolation is the practice of intentionally infecting people with very very small amounts of virus in an attempt to get them to produce immunity. The bad part of this is that you are using a live virus, and there will be some people that can succumb to the disease. They did this with small pox and it is believed the death rate of those that underwent this procedure was about 1% vs 30% if they were infected normally.

The other thing that might be able to be made faster is an attenuated virus, basically a wimpy virus, that shares enough similarity with the original that your body can develop immunity but the severity of illness is very mild. You can infect people intentionally with this attenuated virus to protect them from getting the full blown disease.
 

Jon L

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Looks like GIlman beat me to it ... but still. My prediction:

I think we are going to be on lockdown for the next 4-6 weeks. After that, we'll have testing spun up fast enough that we'll be able to tell where the outbreaks are, and quarantine just those people/places that are infected.

That new test from Abbott Industries that Gilman mentioned above is what I think has the best chance of moving the needle in the next year. We may have some miracle drug that comes along, but easy access to testing will be a huge deal.

Why? Nothing needs to be done except a lot of tests. This is dead simple and doesn't require months of studies that may pan out, or not. Its something that county-level health departments can implement.
 
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WillHurtDontCare

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"More than a fifth of Detroit’s police force is quarantined;"

"An increasing number of police departments around the country are watching their ranks get sick as the number of coronavirus cases explodes across the U.S. The growing tally raises questions about how laws can and should be enforced during the pandemic, and about how departments will hold up as the virus spreads among those whose work puts them at increased risk of infection."

I actually hadn't considered the impact that a highly contagious virus would have on the police. If this makes them afraid to visit certain areas, I'm wary of what second order effects we might see.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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"The outbreak is expected to deal a serious blow to the state’s bottom line as efforts to slow the spread of the virus shutter wide swaths of the economy, undercutting several sources of tax revenue. Already, Gov. Tom Wolf has ordered a hiring freeze and general purchasing ban for state agencies in an effort to cut spending."

Here is an opportunity - figure out what useful services governments will cut out of desperation and start offering them privately.
 

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I just witnessed a guy get punched in the face 4 times, right outside my house.

It's not like I live in a ghetto somewhere. I live on a quiet, suburban cul-de-sac in a small town. I've met our in neighbors in 9 of the 12 houses on the cul-de-sac. People are friendly. Middle class. A mix of young families and middle-aged people. A couple retired folks. We've held progressive dinners at each other's houses. It has felt really safe.

I've never in my life seen someone punch another person (except on TV).

But today, Neighbor 1 (let's call him Joe) and Neighbor 2 (let's call him Bob) started fighting when Bog's dog got loose and went over to Joe's yard and chased Joe's cat.

Joe ran after the dog and caught him beside our house. He emerged from the side of our house, carrying the dog by its collar. All 4 feet of the dog were up in the air, so the dog was being choked by the way he was held.

Bob yelled at Joe, "Don't hold him like that. Put him down." Bob yelled at Joe again, "You're choking him. Put him down." They were walking toward each other and it looked like Joe was going to hand the dog to Bob, but Bob punched Joe in the face about 4 times. They both went down on the ground right outside my window, with Joe on the bottom.

Neighbor 3 walked over and intervened.

Joe picked up his cat and walked back to his house. Then he came back outside and shouted at Bob again. Joe said if he ever sees that dog in his yard again, the police are going to be called.

Bob said, "I asked you to put the dog down. If you had put the dog down, there wouldn't have been a problem."

Joe said, "If your dog comes into my yard again, you'll find out how fast I put that dog down."

Bob made a gesture with his hand in the shape of a pistol and said, "Oh yeah? We'll settle that one real quick."

Guys.

People are on edge.

This situation is causing already stressed-out people to experience record levels of tension.

Fuses are short.

Neighbors who never used to interact with each other are suddenly all at home, feeling stir-crazy.

And even if a dog chasing a cat has nothing whatever to do with the pandemic, a little thing like this can be all it takes to spark that very short fuse.

If this is happening in a quiet little neighborhood where people have actually met and interacted with each other, where supposedly everybody likes everybody, where we have seemingly good-natured, stable, prosperous folks who are mostly still employed, then I assume it's brewing just under the surface, all over America.

If people are suddenly punching each other over someone's dog chasing someone else's cat, then what's going to happen in the inner cities?

In the face of all this, let's be aware that people are struggling.

Let's go out of our way to be kind.

Let's look for ways to lift others up, ease their burdens, and encourage their hearts.

Let's keep our eyes open for those moments when we can defuse a potentially explosive situation.

And let's be extra vigilant about staying safe.

=========
*Edit* I just saw @WillHurtDontCare 's post above about law enforcement.

Combine lower levels of police (because they've been infected) with higher levels of stuff like this, and we have a recipe for some serious unrest.

Joe and Bob are just two dudes that have a simmering resentment toward each other now. But how fast is that kind of thing multiplying across the country?
 

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I actually hadn't considered the impact that a highly contagious virus would have on the police. If this makes them afraid to visit certain areas, I'm wary of what second order effects we might see.
I work in a medium sized department -- definitely not a large city, but big enough. For the area I work in, we are one of the busiest departments. We have around 24,000 residents and handle close to 19,000 reports a year. We are fortunate to not have consistent violent crime.

As soon as the outbreak occurred and everyone realized it was time to get serious, we immediately cut back on our proactive policing. Before and after every shift, we disinfect our cars. We are to handle as much as we can over the phone. We do not enter medical facilities or people's homes unless it is a true life-threatening emergency. We try to keep at least 6-9 feet away from everyone. We stopped traffic enforcement unless it's for public safety. We all carry a bottle of hand sanitizer and have been asked to wash our hands after any interaction with the public, if possible. The skin on my knuckles are starting to crack from being so dry. I've been trying to use moisturizer but it's not really working. One of our lieutenants put together emergency kits for every car that includes wipes, face masks, and tyvek suits.

Any emergency call into 911 will be asked about travel and/or symptoms. We are warned every time that someone might have the virus. My jurisdiction hasn't had a serious outbreak yet, but they are starting to trickle in. We also have a testing site setup a few miles away, which only increases cases reported. While some people in my area tested positive, they will not tell us who they are unless we get dispatched to that specific person's home.

A lot of businesses have shut down. We have a large shopping plaza that has gone from several hundred cars to zero. Our neighboring jurisdiction has a large mall that has been shut down. Some stores have limited hours and/or try to reduce the amount of people in the business at one time. Wawa stopped their self-serve coffee and make you ask an employee to pour it for you (people are not happy to lose control over their coffee). Dunkin Donuts locked their doors and require you to go through the drive-through only.

With all that said, we are fortunate that our call volume has been nearly cut in half. It has helped to reduce our potential exposures. On a busy day, we could take 50-60 reports. Now, I would guess we're around 25-35. I used to take 10-15 reports by myself in a 12 hour day. Now, I'm down to around 5. Most of my day is patrolling around, checking on certain areas, and then sitting in a parking lot trying to remain visible. When reducing proactive policing, it's hard to turn your eye to people driving like maniacs. People are getting a little stir-crazy, including ourselves.

I can't tell you how many people I've talked to who said they were really sick in January or February before this whole coronavirus became a thing. I'm convinced a lot more people were infected without knowing it. Without a test, they will never know if they are now immune or may still get it.

I tend to feel on edge quite often because any time someone coughs or sneezes, you have to be concerned about coming into contact with the virus. It's such a weird time right now and while you want to think you'll be okay, you also start to accept that it's just a matter of time before you get it and hope that you don't have serious complications. My biggest fear is my two small kids getting it either from my wife or me or from their day care. It's quite amazing that after our day care shut down for two weeks, their coughs and runny noses are gone. They are starting again tomorrow and I just hope another parent doesn't drop off a sick kid because they have to send their kid to day care to rid the burden of staying home. And I also hope we aren't unknowingly infected and passing it off to someone else's kids. My wife and I both have essential jobs so we don't have much choice. My parents have helped watch our kids but they are older (higher risk) and live nearly 5 hours away. They live in an area where there are zero confirmed cases while they come down and help us out in one of the hardest hit areas of our state. It's hard on them to travel back and forth and I definitely don't want to risk getting them sick or having them take it back to their home.

We just ask people to take this seriously and stay home or maintain a safe distance from each other. As police, we don't want to do our jobs right now, but we still have to go to work everyday. We need cooperation from everyone. We have to all do what is best for each other. We have to be in this together.
 

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Stock futures are now down only 1.2%. I feel if we can get through a weekend with relatively bad news and the markets don't react harshly to the downside (5, 10% declines) it will be helpful, perhaps a signal that the worst (in terms of the market) is behind us. I feel that we might retest the lows in a slow drift downward slide, but perhaps, the worst of the big moves are over.

and we have a recipe for some serious unrest.
And just think, things aren't that bad.

We aren't living in apocalypse situation -- apocalypses don't have Amazon deliveries and "take out" pizza.

My fear is something REAL occurring ... like an EMP, solar event, etc. Then you will see shit really hit the fan.
 

James Klymus

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Joe and Bob are just two dudes that have a simmering resentment toward each other now. But how fast is that kind of thing multiplying across the country?
Sounds like they type of things that happen in jail. Both "locked" in their cages, going stir crazy. Full of stress and anxiety over an invisible monster they can't see.

I know tensions are rising in Italy, People are running low on money from being locked down, and civil unrest is brewing.


How much of normal life can you take away, and for how long, before the negatives outweigh the positives?
 

GIlman

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Sounds like they type of things that happen in jail. Both "locked" in their cages, going stir crazy. Full of stress and anxiety over an invisible monster they can't see.

I know tensions are rising in Italy, People are running low on money from being locked down, and civil unrest is brewing.


How much of normal life can you take away, and for how long, before the negatives outweigh the positives?
This is all very predictable. Right now we are at Maslow level 2, people are tense but not primal. In Italy they are entering Maslow level 1, that’s when things get really risky and unpredictable, humans become primal when desperate and instinctive.

I won’t post politics statements, I’m just grateful in the US we have some of the rights we do.
 

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We aren't living in apocalypse situation -- apocalypses don't have Amazon deliveries and "take out" pizza
Damn straight!

Looking on the bright side. We stay busy and like to unwind, so Brittany and I go out to eat a LOT. It was a challenge, but we have learned to eat healthy out. We go several times a week. So it has been a weird adjustment not having that option.

I used Door Dash for the first time ever yesterday. I have to give a fantastic report. I LOVE IT. Super easy.

Since restaurants are a big deal for us, we are doing our best to support them and at least help them keep their head above water through all this. I can’t imagine owning a restaurant or chain right now.
 

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The skin on my knuckles are starting to crack from being so dry. I've been trying to use moisturizer but it's not really working.
One thing I've found that works for this is antibacterial ointment (like Neosporin or the generic equivalent). It has a way of better seeping into the skin and healing those cracks and dry spots. You can use it during the day, or slather it on at night and cover it with a bandaid(s) while you sleep. For me, it's the only thing that really works. I know this is a minor thing, but I've read that keeping your hands "uncracked" is one way to reduce the odds of catching the virus. (Not sure of the mechanics, but there ya go. It's kind of ironic, considering that we're all washing our hands like crazy right now.)

THANKS for sharing the first-hand account of policing in times like this. It was really interesting. Stay safe out there!
 

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Yesterday an Amber Alert was sent out in NE Florida advising anyone over 65 to remain indoors. This was very odd, as if some wave of flu virus was about to pass over the city. Making it even more odd, other than no "in" dining, large crowds and social events, we are not under some of the strict isolation measures (shut down) that many cities and counties are under. My 77 year old neighbor was confused as all get out.
I think because the "incubation date" has been met and a lot of people who have it are going to be leaving the hospitals and going back home, so it will be greater odds to come into contact with these people? That could possibly be why?
 

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We aren't living in apocalypse situation -- apocalypses don't have Amazon deliveries and "take out" pizza.
Yea, I was just talking to my friend today mentioning that I'm sick of cooking and eating frozen meals. I wanted to get Wendy's or a burger somewhere.

Nobody is starving, we are just tired of the same old same old.

We joked that in a couple weeks, our conversation would be, I'm glad I have frozen meals in my fridge and can supplement it with my 50 lb bag of rice to make it last 2 meals.

Hope it doesn't get to that.

Our situation here in Arizona is especially rosy. All stores are open and everything just looks like normal, with less traffic.
 

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