The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[GIlman]

Curious if anyone here is willing put their money where their opinions are...

If you think this is the end of the economy and the next big bad black swan, the gateway to a recession, sell SPX calls. If you sell 10 or 20 of them and are CORRECT, you stand to make hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Likewise, if you think this is overblown and likely to fade away, sell SPX puts.

Either way, you take advantage of the huge premiums due to the volatility and uncertainty.

I've made bets that this will blow over, but not to the point that I'm risking life and limb.

Personally, I've prepared for the worst.

But financially, "my money" is on this flaming out moreso than something prolonged. If I'm wrong, it won't cost me too much but lost F-you money. But if I'm right, I could double my money. So not only do I have an opinion, I've wagered substantial money on it, moreso than a few months of food, toilet paper, and cans of Lysol.



Most cruise ships are disgusting, especially if it's owned by Carnival. Those numbers don't surprise me as cruise ships are like floating petri dishes, not to mention many folks who like them tend to be 50+ years and older.

I chose to buy some SPX puts, I realize the benefit of selling vs buying. But the potential gain in buying offers more than selling, and risk is limited to the cost of the put. I expect quite a bit of volatility and selling you may have someone exercise the option and force a loss even though they haven't expired.

 

[GIlman]

One question I have kicked around is.....if we didn't have flu shots available, what would the death rate of the common flu look like?

Death rate would be the same. Vaccines typically decrease the incidence and prevalence. But the death rate is a percentage of those infected who die regardless of the total # infected.

However, if the prevalence increases, with a fixed death rate, then the total killed increases in proportion to the incidence. E.g. 5% mortality rate would be 5 deaths if 100 infected, 50 deaths if 1000 infected, 500 deaths if 10,000 infected. The total number dead increased as the incidence increases, but the rate is unchanged of 5% of infected die. Vaccines decrease the total # infected, this decreasing the total # killed.

Some definitions to clear things up.

Incidence = the total # diagnosed in some specified time period. For flu or Coronavirus usually incidence is a 1 year period of time. For something like colon or breast cancer usually we talk about someone’s entire life.

prevalence = the total # with disease right now, today, at this moment in time. It is the number currently diagnosed with active disease. Anyone who had the disease previously and has recovered is not counted in the prevalence.

mortality rate = the number of people who die for a given number who develop the disease. This can be expressed as a percent or ratio.

morbidity rate = the number of people that suffer some complication related to the disease. This can be total morbidity which is any complication vs specific morbidity rate such as the percent of people with lung scarring or heart disease from the infection.

 

[loop101]

Edna Boone was 10 years old during the 1918 Spanish Flu, and her family was the only one in town that did not contract it. They had to care for the other families, and her job was to deliver jars of soup to their porches. She mentions that WW1, the Boll Weevil cotton infestation, and "Asian Flu", were all going on at the same time.

"Children need to learn about what could happen...the shock-wave that sets in when something like this happens, kind of stuns people, they go beyond thinking correctly....Be aware, be aware."

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k20VFZeLKY

 

[minivanman]

At the museum where my wife works they have a top guy that is out of the country. He chose to go (work related and paid for by the museum). There is a lady that is going to New York in a few weeks to a large show there and it is her choice to go (paid for by the museum).... but, when they both get back the museum has made it mandatory for them to be in self quarantine for 14 days. Both of them are very dedicated workers so it's going to be hard for them to stay at home for 14 days.

If you run out of toilet paper, just cut up old shirts.... it might feel so good you won't go back to toilet paper

 

[.B.]

I followed the numbers of daily deaths from COVID in Italy over the last 10 days.

It still is early to be sure that it will continue growing at the same rate.
But if it does, if you do the maths, it can go very bad very fast.
At least if people continue to “do business as usual” and don't take measures to reduce the spread of the virus.

I talk about "easy measures to implement" in the next post.
That's why I decided to post this today and not wait for the numbers of Monday.
Because some of those itiniatives are best thought over during the weekend.

The left column is the total number of deaths reported on that date.
The right column is the projection with the hypothesis of a 50% daily increase (from 04/03):


And several other European countries have the same situation as in Italy, they just don't know it yet because their government has not been testing massively yet.

E.g. in my country, they only just started testing this week, after the carnival holidays (instead of in January like most should have done)...

And in 5 days, they already found 169 cases out of 771 tests!!!
Not a big surprise if you let people infect each other for more than a month.
(source: Coronavirus en Belgique : 60 nouvelles infections détectées, 169 cas au total (carte))

And after 770 tests...they already ran out of kits to do the tests...no comment.
Just one more blunder.

So without test kits, they will still not see how bad the situation already is in the country.

And so, they will still force everybody to go to the office.
Even though in a service society many could work from home.
They will keep the schools open, etc etc

So the virus will keep spreading faster and faster, unless we try to do sthg about it (next post)

 

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[NovaAria]

I will let you fellas argue over whether this is a nothing burger or not, but as someone who's father has a heart condition, this worries me. 10% of the confirmed cases in Lombardy needed an ICU.
Locking down cities beats having to give hundreds of people extensive care at the same time.

 

[GIlman]

This presupposes that the vaccine is administered evenly across the population.

In reality, very old and immuno-compromised people likely count for a disproportionate number of vaccine receivers, so my guess is that the flu vaccine actually does reduce the mortality rate, as it's disproportionately reducing the prevalence of the virus in those with higher likelihood of dying.

That said, I haven't seen actual data.

that may be true, but you really have to stratify populations by age, etc...doesn’t really change my assertion, you have to look between like cohorts of patients.

the whole point was that being vaxinated decreases your risk of getting the disease to begin with, which as a population decreases the mortality rate because fewer people get the disease to begin with. But of those who get the disease, if stratified by age, the mortality rate should be the same.

 

[EVMaso]

Maybe this will be like the novel "Inferno" by Dan Brown (not the movie, they made a different ending). Covid 19 is just impossible to contain, it will just be circulating around the world like any other common malady, and we'll all just have to live with it. People will suffer and die because of it, at least until we get a vaccine made and properly circulated, but by then it might be too late to completely eradicate it. School children get vaccines in their schooling years much like we get hepatitis shots that keep us safe for decades. It will be just another thing to manage.

 

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[Here]

This all reminds me of when my kid was 10 months old and got a very mild case of shigella. Only reason I had her tested was because she had bloody stool in her diaper (TMI I know, sorry).

The Health Dept. calls me up to grill me. Was she at a large event? Did she eat prepared food? Did someone else have it? On and on they went. Then of course lots of warnings about how she can't be exposed to anyone for 2 weeks.

The whole thing was ridiculous because she obviously caught it from someone who wasn't showing symptoms. And the risk of someone else catching it from a 10-month-old is pretty low.

Same thing going on here, but a much larger scale. Those spreading the virus don't have symptoms. I'm concerned about what happens if someone DOES have symptoms, you know those around you have to be carriers but you're the one stuck in isolation for weeks.

I know it's important to take measures. I'm just questioning my past experience and what I expect them to do here.

 

[Walter Hay]

when people that they actually know start getting quarantined.

Or die.

 

[biggeemac]

Eventually, some, if not many, on this forum, will get COVID19.

Having said that, there are 2 11 cases near me, and I now have a sort-throat and a few other minor symptoms - which I assume are from severe allergies. At least I am ready, if I need to self-quarantine. I don't think I have COVID19, but it certainly is weird not feeling 100% when this crap is going on.

Edit: 98.1 F, I live!

I am sick, along with my wife and two daughters. It sucks wondering if we should be quarantined or not. But I am treating myself as though I have it. I have been avoiding contact with others, however, our business is adult foster homes. I have 9 souls living in my home, plus a few employees going in and out. The main directive that the state has given us in regards to the disease is that we are NOT allowed to restrict any of our residents or visitors from coming or going out of our home. Nothing about making sure prescriptions are filled, and very little about safety. Government FAILURE !!!

 

[Timea Szabo]

4 people in my local town have got it.
I saw my friend over the weekend who just recently came back from a trip in Italy . A member of his team on the trip has proved positive for C0VlD-19, so it is likely that my friend has it as well, although he said he was not showing any symptoms. I was in close contact with this friend, so if I don't already have it, I will probably eventually get it at some point.

If it is C0VlD-19, this virus is spreading like hellfire, and I personally think there is more to it than meets the eye. Not to mention, a lot of people who have the virus, show little or no symptoms at all, which is detrimental if they come into contact with elderly people, who are much more prone to death from this virus. Scary stuff.

Also:
24 members of the UK public to be infected with the coronavirus in order to develop a vaccine for it, in return for money.
Get paid £3500 to have Coronavirus

 

[LuckyPup]

I think the problem is that they, like me, are pretty well prepared.
Only for the wrong thing.

I am prepared to sweep through the streets wearing reinforced motorcycle gear, bashing zombieheads in left and right. Showing up like the knight in the white armor, saving the neighborhood through the power of my mace.

But now we have an invisible enemy, and all I can do is to practice proper hygiene and avoid crowds. Business as usual, it is.

Bummer.

FACT: And you have plenty of beets to see you through the inevitable famine.

 

[BellaPippin]

You forgot the meme guy! View attachment 30919

I was gonna do the Spongebob mock one but I got lazy hahahaha

 

[VDP]

It is. If full commie lockdown in China didn’t contain this... More taxpayer money to the CDC wouldn’t either.

THE BIGGEST help to this crisis is private industry. You know, Clorox, Lysol, P&G, Purel, Costco, Walmart. They have done more to prevent the spread of the virus than all of the world’s governments combined.

When there is a cost effective vaccine or cure, if there ever is one, it will be a pharmaceutical company that comes up with it.

From your reactions, I get that you think there is no important role for the government here. Am I right? Either way just wanted to put my thoughts out on this subject.

A lockdown might not contain it but it can for sure delay it. If we look at Singapore and South-Korea, they are doing a way better job than most European countries in dealing with the virus.

To me, it shows that there are for sure ways to slow it down depending on the reaction of the government. Are they pro-active (Singapore) or are they reactive and do nothing till it's spread like in Italy.

The disease might not be killing all of us, but if the virus can spread freely and a lot of people that need medical help are not able to the death rate will be way higher than needed.

IMO it is the government's job to educate and take pro-active measures.

p.s. obviously it would be better if people self-educated but we can't expect that from the general public

 

[Ernman]

It is. If full commie lockdown in China didn’t contain this... More taxpayer money to the CDC wouldn’t either.

I'm afraid I have to disagree on this one @Kak . A properly funded CDC would have been further ahead on this power curve. Instead they are playing catch up ball against a relentless enemy. And it is data from the CDC that will allow the pharma's to jump start and get the vaccine cooking.

I'm a firm believer in the balance of government and industry. Unfortunately, our current leadership got it very wrong and many U.S. citizens will pay the price.

 

[Ernman]

Would be funny if it wasn't so not funny. Seriously?!?!? This is like an SNL skit.

See how dangerous our habits can be? Most of the time we aren't even aware of what we are doing that is unsafe/unhealthy.

Let's all go make fun of well meaning people who are trying to help us, but are still human and subject to the same failings as all of us - cause that's going to accomplish what?

 

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[Ernman]

When a corporation behaves the same it eventually goes bankrupt.

Government doesn’t have that “problem.” It will just tax (steal), borrow and print money to kick the can down the road.

The only thing the government will do in this outbreak is lock you in your house while the private sector actually produces results.

For the record, being against an overreaching bureaucracy isn’t the same as being antigovernment.

OMG, I'm LMAO. Here I am engaging in a back and forth -when clearly we're not going to change each other's mind - when I should be focused on my biz. Talk about wasting time! It was fun, but I have work to do.

 

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[BellaPippin]

"I'll go to the mountains"

That is my strategy, but for the zombie apocalypse.

 

[LightningHelix]

That is my strategy, but for the zombie apocalypse.

Wait putting "the" before Zombie Apocalypse implies it will happen...

Do you know something we don't??

 

[NovaAria]

Yeah our government is displaying astronomical levels of incompetence too.

They refused to shut down schools and cancel sports events because, quoting the spokesperson: "If we take such drastic actions over the little cases we currently have, what will we do if this becomes a country-wide epidemic?"

The textbook definition of a reactive, slow-lane thinking policy maker.

 

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[MattR82]

The entirety of Italy, 60+ million people, was just put on lockdown.

You can only go out to work or buy supplies. If you travel you get criminally prosecuted.

Serie A (soccer league) was suspended. The last time it happened was during WW2.

Hardly a lockdown though is it. Hundreds from Maranello and Faenza are flying into Melbourne today for the F1 season opener.

 

[Thoelt53]

The data is already there being collected. Not so much an implantable chip. Your cellphone is basically a tracking beacon. The cellphone companies know where you and everyone else is pretty much all the time. When was the last time your cellphone was further than 30 ft from you?

Its not much of a stretch to see laws being passed, in the name of providing safety to the population (of course), that would aggregate all this data and track every one of us. When people fear they will willingly give up things to get a false sense of security.

just look at the patriot act after 9/11. On 9/10 people would have said that the patriot act could never be in-acted in the US. If/when CV hits a critical mass, expect there to be a huge power and privacy grab all in the name of providing safety.

Thank you.

I’ve been saying this, and it’s nice to see it in someone’s else’s words.

Although we don’t see eye to eye on the lethality of the virus, it seems we both agree the possible end game is the same.

 

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[Thoelt53]

These people are so dumb. They buy toilet paper....because they won’t be able to go to score in emergency?
But where is all this poop going to come from? Don’t they need to stock up on food as well? They just see people stocking up and then they stock up. So dumb

If the supply chain were to break down, you wouldn’t have any toilet paper.

I don’t know why being prepared is dumb.

You keep demeaning anyone who doesn’t share your view.

Perhaps you’re a condescending douchebag?

 

[biophase]

Well there are now two cases in my city. Last month, it was in my county.

Also, assuming this data is correct, it is encouraging. If the data isn't, well, disregard.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236995910141390848

View: https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1236995910141390848

Arizona News

Arizona Breaking news, local stories, and On Your Side investigations from the state’s largest television newsroom.

www.google.com

This means the virus was already in the Phoenix population last week.

I have a flight Wednesday... not sure if I'm going to take it or not. I could drive it in 14 hours.

 

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[Thoelt53]

Theo, when the facts are pointing one way and society is damagingly going another path, we need to aggressively non-conform. These panic clickers and buyers are sinking the economy. That’s the real threat.

Since when does massive quantity of consumption sink an economy?

We were already due for a correction. It seems that SARS-CoV-2 is simply the catalyst.

 

[Thoelt53]

So many Americans think bidets are "gross" and "eww." Funny, I always thought that shower clean from a bidet was markedly less "gross" than half-clean from dry toilet paper.

I don’t find them gross. It’s purely intimidation by a foreign object lol.

After all, there is no cleaner bum than a post-shower bum.

 

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[GIlman]

Is that apartment complex here in Maricopa county?

Yes, in Maricopa. I disagree with any such action, it is non-sense. And what do you do if there are several infections in different people overtime. How long and how often would you do any quarantine. I think there are some serious unknowns about CV, and some worrying indications about it. But certainly I do think many of the responses are not proportional to the illness itself. It's kinda of the do something do anything mentality, as if something and anything at all is better.

The thing I do not know if this was just a knee jerk thing from someone associated with the apartment or if there had been some warning or discussion with the state health department or some notification with the CDC, HHS, or some other body. So I have no idea what authority they would have to actually do it.

 

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[Mckenzie]

Italy suspends on mortgage repayments & tax bills Italy suspends mortgage repayments and tax bills – could threaten membership of the euro

 

[VDP]

Agree. Well said. And I am wondering the same things.

In the newspapers, all I read is stuff like, for example, "economic growth will be halved due to corona virus". Why are they writing that? What does it actually mean for you and me?

Life was good for me 20 years ago - between then and now, for the most years there was 'economic growth' .. is it better now? Maybe there will be no growth this year if we take the proper actions against this virus. Who cares? Or am I on the wrong forum now...

Totally agree. I tried to tell this story to 2/3 people close to me and most are still thinking it won't get as far. Don't get me wrong I hope they are right. But, if I ask for any reason they can not give it and start talking about the economy taking a hit. That is what the news reports and that is what they worry about I guess.

Let's first save our people and then we can worry about the rest.

We can still be capitalist while also putting lives above all else.