The Entrepreneur Forum | Startups | Entrepreneurship | Starting a Business | Motivation | Success

HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Remove ads while supporting the Unscripted philosophy...become an INSIDER.

MoneyDoc

Gold Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Jun 24, 2014
1,060
2,441
580
26
Guys kinda off topic but does anyone know a manufacturer or a distributor in the USA that has 3-ply or 2-ply surgical masks that I can purchase? Our hospitals in Canada are turning to media outlets to ask for free donations of these surgical masks and nobody seems to be stepping up. They cost like $0.3/mask so I was thinking of buying around 10,000 to give out to these hospitals. PM me please!
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

AceVentures

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Apr 16, 2019
160
429
196
Houston
Anyone here watch 3Blue1Brown on Youtube?

He just released a very interesting COVID-19 infection simulation.

It's based on similar principles as what was done in previous leading studies - but in these simulations, the guy asks and answers a lot of the same questions we're asking in this thread.

Really cool to see, at least mathematically, what can happen in a variety of different scenarios and which variables matter most.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
 

ChrisV

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 10, 2015
3,103
6,531
1,512
Islands of Calleja
Except you, right? Everyone except you.

I'm done updating this thread with what I find for ya'all. It's become absurdity on both sides, and eroded from a discussion and fact finding mission into divided drivel. It started as one of the best threads in the history of this forum, but now has run it's course.

I have had one LEGENDARY MEMBER let me know he was bailing on the forum completely due to the sheer douchebagery of this thread, determining that he needed a break from you (nearly) all.

So, I'll still be reading, and moderating, but I will leave the commentary to the rest of you (armchair) experts. Ya'all can talk into your own reflection. Never forget that intellectual disagreement is not only healthy, but enlightening. Never stop learning. Don't be afraid to be wrong, as that recognition and acknowledgment just may be the edge of true wisdom.

Here's hoping to a continued trend of a break in the curve, and here's hoping that anyone whose eyes grace these pages stays healthy, stays smart, and stays CoronaVirus free.

- Dave
Well if it's worth anything I've appreciated your updates, and would prefer you continued. But whatever you feel is best.

Our stats aren't that great at this point. It's a constantly evolving, difficult to measure situation.

Regardless, look at the irony...

Brilliant scientist comes out with catastrophic model and it makes headline news worldwide and is used as the basis for shutdowns and pandemic pandemonium

SAME GUY comes out a few weeks later, and in a move that is uncharasteric of his industry, admits a significant error and revises his own previous forecast to non-cataclysmic - :::crickets:::

If HE was part of the basis for the PANIC, HE has to be part of the voice of reason for the solution
I've been away from the thread for a couple days. What's this in reference to.

Edit, never mind... just saw the Dailywire article.
 

ChrisV

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 10, 2015
3,103
6,531
1,512
Islands of Calleja
Anyone here watch 3Blue1Brown on Youtube?

He just released a very interesting COVID-19 infection simulation.

It's based on similar principles as what was done in previous leading studies - but in these simulations, the guy asks and answers a lot of the same questions we're asking in this thread.

Really cool to see, at least mathematically, what can happen in a variety of different scenarios and which variables matter most.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
One of my all-time favorite channels.
 

farmer79

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Nov 24, 2013
60
247
155
Saskatchewan, Canada
A question for Gilman
Why is social distancing so effective? If it can live in the air for 3 hours whether I am 1 foot away from the infected person or arrive in their contaminated air two steps later doesn’t seem like it would make much difference.
 

GIlman

Still Gilman
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 16, 2014
684
3,836
886
A question for Gilman
Why is social distancing so effective? If it can live in the air for 3 hours whether I am 1 foot away from the infected person or arrive in their contaminated air two steps later doesn’t seem like it would make much difference.
There are probably several reasons.

First, the further you are from another person, the more diluted the innoculum (virus exposure) becomes. It spreads out in the air in 3 dimensions, so it diluted by a factor to the third power (cubed), because that’s how the volume of air expands on three dimension. So say 1 foot away would be dilution of 1 ; (1x1x1), 2 ft apart dilution of 1/8 (2x2x2). At 6 ft the dilution is 1/216 (6x6x6), at 10 feet 1/1000, at 100 ft 1/1,000,000. As you can see the amount the virus is diluted in the air rapidly increased with even small to modest increases in distance. Hope that’s not too confusing to follow.

Besides the dilution effect, we believe that transmission is droplet, droplets have considerable mass and fall out of the air over time. The further you are away from the source, the more likely that stuff has settled to the ground or other surfaces before it gets to you.

Not every exposure even if you breathe it in results in you getting infected. Your body produces mucous and has other mechanisms to protect yourself from infection. The larger the # of viruses in the innoculem, the higher the probability that you convert to infection.

So anything that decreases the # of virus particles you are exposed to the less likely you are to become infected from any exposure. All exposures have risk, some are tiny and some are huge risks based on viral load.

Of course there is a time component. The longer you stay in the same space as an infected person the more likely you receive a high enough virus exposure to get infected. Also those droplets will settle out on surfaces around you or your clothes over time that increases your risk.

Greater distance between people and decreased time together decreases risks as described.

If you are meeting with people, as opposed to uncontrolled exposure to other people. Choose to meet outside in the direct sun with as much space as comfortable to talk, UV kills viruses and bacteria which offers added protection on top of distance.
 
Last edited:

MattR82

Gold Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Oct 4, 2015
854
1,319
425
37
Perth
This is somewhat of a rant, but if anyone here is in the high risk section yet not taking care of yourself as best you can, you're kind of being a selfish a-hole to your family.

My dad has diverticulitis and diabetes, and complained to me about some of the food he eats that makes him feel unwell. Then told me he let the guy at the store he was just at have it, for using gloves but still handling money and everyone using the pinpad.

Won't listen to any thoughts on alternative diets because they"eat healthy already and always have."

And the thing he was buying at the store? Cigs.

Almost ALL of the people I know over 50 are doing a terrible job.
 

Mckenzie

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 25, 2013
129
179
148
US supermarket throws out $57,000 worth of food that woman intentionally :coughed o
As pretty much everyone in this thread, I'm not an expert. I'm not taking any sides, either. Just wanted to point out something that I feel many people are missing as if it wasn't important while everyone is constantly checking the rising numbers of cases and deaths - the long-term effects of a lockdown, including countless personal tragedies and deaths, too.

There's no denying that without flattening the curve there would be many more deaths. It's also obvious that if "certain" countries decided to act as soon as possible there might have been no need for such restrictive measures (as the examples of still functioning relatively normally Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan show as well as certain smaller countries that acted fast - here in Barbados the government and private business, without mandatory measures, took immediate action after identifying the first cases).

But the countries currently struggling the most are whey they are and they can't go back and implement the diligent Asian measures sooner. At this point, the question is whether it can really be contained given thousands of cases and the inability to properly perform contact tracing which has been so essential in countries that weren't as affected.

Which brings me to a thought I've been having recently: what if while everyone is focused on the current cases, it turns out that the biggest death toll will come later due to the effects of strict, economy-destroying measures? I'm not arguing for dollars here but for lives, too.

A study by researchers at Imperial College London linked 500,000 cancer deaths to the Great Recession. They found unemployment and health care cuts lead to these half a million tragedies (non paywall source mentioning this article: Chillingly, Scariest Coronavirus Death Toll May Not Come from COVID-19)

A study by University of Oxford researchers found 10,000 suicides tied to the Great Recession. That was in the US, Canada, and Europe alone.

The psychological strain of loneliness manifests physiologically, too. Harry Taylor, who studies social isolation in older adults, particularly in the black community, says that it’s one of the worst things that humans can do to their overall well-being, adding that “the mortality effect of social isolation is like smoking 15 cigarettes per day.” In older people, social isolation seems to exacerbate any preexisting medical conditions, from cardiovascular diseases to Alzheimer’s, but its ill effects aren’t limited to those over 60. (source: What Coronavirus Isolation Could Do to Your Mind (and Body))

The vulnerable today might avoid the virus (that isn't guaranteed to kill them) only to die later due to a lack of resources in hospitals caused by an economic downturn the world hasn't yet seen before. High stress can lead to cancer and other deadly diseases and health disorders. Strict isolation measures can ruin mental health and lead not only to indescribable suffering but also suicides.

All of this can be much worse than the casualties so far. It's a horrible trade-off, but that's where we are due to the failure of taking action sooner. I feel there should be a public discussion regarding what's the lesser of two evils now.



I get your point about economic effects not comparable to deaths. But what if because of a prolonged shutdown of the economy those 20 people can't find a job at all? What about their families that might now suffer hunger or enter a generational cycle of poverty? What if one of those 20 people commits suicide, unable to cope with the difficult situation? What if some of those 20 people or some of their family members get sick (after the current epidemic ends) and they can't afford treatment (cancer is a likely outcome of an extremely stressful trauma)? What if some of those 20 people need to resort to crime just to put some food on the table?

The deaths from coronavirus make headlines. Deaths from causes that can't be directly traced to it don't. Yet both are tragic and the secondary effects (the longer the lockdowns lasts, the worse) might eventually cause many more deaths (note the word "might" - I have no idea, just wanted to offer a different perspective).

I'm not arguing - just wanted to point out a different perspective which I feel is being ignored. Right now it might feel as if the world is ending but it will continue and we might have to face a much bigger death toll due to these secondary effects.

Again, I'm not taking any sides. I'm not an expert. I wouldn't want to be in a position where I have to choose which approach to follow. I too have family members that are vulnerable and I certainly don't think that it's fine for the elderly or other vulnerable people (or anyone for that matter) to die. It's a horrible trade-off either way. I'm just wondering if any countries around the world compared the short-term (still horrible) damages to the long-term effects (that might be even more horrible - or maybe not?).
As the saying goes: “be careful of what you wished for”:
 
Last edited:

Andy Black

Figuring it out as I go along!
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
May 20, 2014
10,200
42,166
4,306
Ireland
Last edited:

MattR82

Gold Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Oct 4, 2015
854
1,319
425
37
Perth
I’ve never come across an article formatted like this on mobiles. We can read the text while the graphs change as we scroll. Very clever, informative, scary.



This graph stands out:
View attachment 31610
I saw that yesterday. Personally not a fan of the scroll graphics!
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

Timmy C

I Will Not Stop!
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Jun 12, 2018
1,157
2,545
659
Melbourne, Australia
I’ve never come across an article formatted like this on mobiles. We can read the text while the graphs change as we scroll. Very clever, informative, scary.



This graph stands out:
View attachment 31610

Nice!

Didnt like reading it.

Someone in my house is being selfish, going out to the mikbar not washing his hands.

Im calling him out on it, he has always been a slob and unhygienic and i turned a blind eye.

But now if he thinks he is gonna risk my families health by being a pig hes got another thing coming. pulling him up on it everyday.

Getting quite angry, if this keeps happening there will be big issues, id call the cops if i could.
 

MattR82

Gold Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Oct 4, 2015
854
1,319
425
37
Perth
Nice!

Didnt like reading it.

Someone in my house is being selfish, going out to the mikbar not washing his hands.

Im calling him out on it, he has always been a slob and unhygienic and i turned a blind eye.

But now if he thinks he is gonna risk my families health by being a pig hes got another thing coming. pulling him up on it everyday.

Getting quite angry, if this keeps happening there will be big issues, id call the cops if i could.
It's terrible isn't it. I subletted from a friend that couldn't afford her place anymore so that I could get out of my sharehouse asap. Last time I ever share again.

I don't think you will change this person's attitude to hygiene overnight so I'd look for alternative arrangements.
 

MTF

Never give up
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 1, 2011
3,103
15,382
3,254
There are probably several reasons.

First, the further you are from another person, the more diluted the innoculum (virus exposure) becomes. It spreads out in the air in 3 dimensions, so it diluted by a factor to the third power (cubed), because that’s how the volume of air expands on three dimension. So say 1 foot away would be dilution of 1 ; (1x1x1), 2 ft apart dilution of 1/8 (2x2x2). At 6 ft the dilution is 1/216 (6x6x6), at 10 feet 1/1000, at 100 ft 1/1,000,000. As you can see the amount the virus is diluted in the air rapidly increased with even small to modest increases in distance. Hope that’s not too confusing to follow.

Besides the dilution effect, we believe that transmission is droplet, droplets have considerable mass and fall out of the air over time. The further you are away from the source, the more likely that stuff has settled to the ground or other surfaces before it gets to you.

Not every exposure even if you breathe it in results in you getting infected. Your body produces mucous and has other mechanisms to protect yourself from infection. The larger the # of viruses in the innoculem, the higher the probability that you convert to infection.

So anything that decreases the # of virus particles you are exposed to the less likely you are to become infected from any exposure. All exposures have risk, some are tiny and some are huge risks based on viral load.

Of course there is a time component. The longer you stay in the same space as an infected person the more likely you receive a high enough virus exposure to get infected. Also those droplets will settle out on surfaces around you or your clothes over time that increases your risk.

Greater distance between people and decreased time together decreases risks as described.

If you are meeting with people, as opposed to uncontrolled exposure to other people. Choose to meet outside in the direct sun with as much space as comfortable to talk, UV kills viruses and bacteria which offers added protection on top of distance.
If this were true, then could you explain why Sweden (check this post: HOT TOPIC - The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...) despite having almost no restrictions compared to Europe and the first case recorded on the same date as Italy (January 31) is still functioning relatively normally and doesn't suffer from healthcare overload or anything like that? According to this theory it should have been a collapsed country already.

I'm not trying to argue, I'm just super confused why almost every country preaches social distancing while Sweden fares so well without such restrictive measures and they're fine (and by all accounts, they should be completely utterly messed up now).
 

Andy Black

Figuring it out as I go along!
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
May 20, 2014
10,200
42,166
4,306
Ireland
Just announced in Ireland... From midnight tonight until 12 April, everybody must stay at home except in specific circumstances.

This is with 2,121 confirmed cases, 71 in ICU, and 22 deaths. The worry is the trend.

Again, I'm struck by the clarity, measuredness, and leadership of the Irish government.

Here's the national news reporting on the announcement:


Here's more details (from: New restrictions: Exceptions for leaving your home).

With effect from midnight tonight, for two weeks until Easter Sunday 12 April, everybody must stay at home in all circumstances:

Except

- To travel to and from work for the purposes of work only where the work is an essential health, social care or other essential service or cannot be done from home (a list of these will be provided)

- To shop for food or household goods or collect a meal

- To attend medical appointments or collect medicines and other health products

- For vital family reasons, such as providing care to children, elderly or vulnerable people

- To take brief individual personal exercise within 2km of your own home which may include children from your own household as long as you adhere to two-metre physical distancing

- For farming purposes that is food production and care of animals

- All public and private gatherings of any number of people outside a single household or living unit are prohibited. The virus might be in your household already so please don't spread it to someone else

- This prohibition includes social family visits that are not for vital reasons already mentioned

- A further range of non-essential shops and services will be closed. The guidance given earlier this week in respect of retail outlets will be revised to reflect this

- Adult community education centres and local community centres will be shut

- All non-essential surgery and health procedures and all other non-essential health services will be postponed

- All visits to hospitals, residential healthcare settings and prisons are to cease, with specific exceptions on compassionate grounds

- Shielding or cocooning will be introduced for all those 70 years of age and specified categories of people who are extremely vulnerable to Covid-19

- Travel to our offshore islands will be limited to residents of those islands

- Pharmacists will be permitted to dispense medicines outside of the current period of validity with an existing prescription in line with the pharmacists clinical judgement

- All public transport and passenger travel will be restricted to essential workers and people providing essential services

- Outside of the reasons listed there is to be no travel outside a 2km radius of your home for any reason
I just spotted you have a “sad” reaction to this @Fox. I agree it’s sad for people to be isolated for two weeks, but I’m happy the whole country is doing this. I think it’s for the long-term good.
 

Andy Black

Figuring it out as I go along!
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
May 20, 2014
10,200
42,166
4,306
Ireland
Guys kinda off topic but does anyone know a manufacturer or a distributor in the USA that has 3-ply or 2-ply surgical masks that I can purchase? Our hospitals in Canada are turning to media outlets to ask for free donations of these surgical masks and nobody seems to be stepping up. They cost like $0.3/mask so I was thinking of buying around 10,000 to give out to these hospitals. PM me please!
@AgainstAllOdds ... I spotted you’d bought and sold some masks.
 

Antti

Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Dec 21, 2017
31
36
112
39
Finland
I'm not trying to argue, I'm just super confused why almost every country preaches social distancing while Sweden fares so well without such restrictive measures and they're fine (and by all accounts, they should be completely utterly messed up now).
The situation is now quickly getting worse in Sweden. Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned and people were adviced to stay home if possible. There have also been talks of restricting movement to and from Stockholm which is the worst affected area.
 

Rivoli

Silver Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Jun 4, 2018
510
769
287
Orange County, California

MTF

Never give up
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 1, 2011
3,103
15,382
3,254
The situation is now quickly getting worse in Sweden. Gatherings of more than 50 people were banned and people were adviced to stay home if possible. There have also been talks of restricting movement to and from Stockholm which is the worst affected area.
My point remains the same - if we model what might happen in other countries based on Italy or Spain, then why Sweden, with the first case on the same date as Italy, isn't hit at all compared to Italy?

As for gatherings of more than 50 people - it was up to 500 people just a couple of days ago. Again - 500 freaking people compared to most countries in Europe where two people are now considered a crowd. And in the articles you can see packed restaurants and public venues. If it spreads so easily in crowds, then why is Sweden okay? I don't get it and I find it strange that nobody looks at countries that decided to go against the current and try something else.

There are just over 3000 official cases recorded (I know they're not all reported) and 105 dead - that's compared to over 86k cases and over 9k dead in Italy. Same date it started, virtually no restrictions in Sweden, life's been going pretty normal and there has been no huge spike in cases or deaths. It's not Asia with its hi-tech contact tracing methods and it's not China with the government's data you can't trust.

I'm not an expert, don't argue for either side since I'm too stupid for that (but okay, I'm contrarian at heart), just genuinely curious what's going on.
 

GIlman

Still Gilman
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 16, 2014
684
3,836
886
If this were true, then could you explain why Sweden (check this post: HOT TOPIC - The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...) despite having almost no restrictions compared to Europe and the first case recorded on the same date as Italy (January 31) is still functioning relatively normally and doesn't suffer from healthcare overload or anything like that? According to this theory it should have been a collapsed country already.

I'm not trying to argue, I'm just super confused why almost every country preaches social distancing while Sweden fares so well without such restrictive measures and they're fine (and by all accounts, they should be completely utterly messed up now).
I don’t know anything about Sweden as a country, but as @Antti points out the situation appears to be deteriorating. One problem I’ve seen with this pandemic is that things change so rapidly that you must make sure to be looking at the Very latest news and data. Stories and data from 2+ days ago can be totally different than today. Again I haven’t dug deep into Sweden, but we can’t point to any country as a success where infection rate is growing not shrinking. We have seen this pattern time and again that places that seemed fine, just blow up with mounting deaths seemingly overnight.

Some countries may be hit harder than others for known or unknown factors. I’m told the elderly in Italy as a percentage is very high for instance. But one pattern is clear, lots of governments act in denial until the numbers really skyrocket or young/famous/important people die. Then there is a collective oh sh*t, and you see an about face in policy and opinion. Everyone believes they will be different until they are not.

Even news anchors and experts they have on are giving false information. Last night I saw an epidemiologist expert on saying that we shouldn’t expect it to be as bad as people are saying because on the diamond princess the death rate was 1% and 7 people had died - totally false. People assume they can stop watching eventually and things wind change. As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness

As of yesterday when he said this in fact 10 people had died and 15 remain in serious/critical condition. It’s not a good sign for people to be in serious/critical condition for so long. Some of those are highly likely to die, and many of those who do live are highly likely to have life long handicaps and may even be ventilator bound for the rest of their lives.

As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness. So so many people struggle with this concept. It literally takes months and months to see the impact. if someone doesnt grasp and factor this in, they will derive a very very different picture than what is happening under the surface.

In a live dynamic population, you can’t ever see the true picture because infected are sometimes unaccounted for and also the exponentially increasing influx of new cases clouds what’s happening. People usually die starting 2-3 weeks after they got sick, but it can take much longer. So the deaths you see today are outcomes from 2-3 weeks (or longer) ago infections .

With a mushrooming, exponentially growing, new # of infections, it appears that the # dead is much less significant than it really is. Just look at an exponential growth curve. As long as something is doubling at a high rate, it gives false hope and the wrong outlook.

Let’s do a little thought experiment to demonstrate this. On day 1 we have 100 people infected. We assume the infection doubles ever 7 days, and on average it takes 2 weeks to die. 10% of the infected die at exactly 2 weeks after they initially get infected and no additional people die after more than 2 weeks of becoming infected. Here is our data.

7 days in, total 200 (100 new) infected 0 dead.
14 days in, total 400 (200 new) infected 10 dead
21 days in, total 800 (400 new) infected 20 dead
28 days in, total 1600 (800 new) infected 40 dead
35 days in, total 3200 (1600 new) infected 80 dead
42 days in, total 6400 (3200 new) infected 160 dead
Assume at this point a treatment to prevent new infection is developed, but there is no cure and treatment for those infected.
49 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 320 dead
56 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 640 dead

At day 7 you could proclaim this is a nothingburger, 200 infections and no one is dying (hmmm...this happened here @trump and many others). Then, notice that at any other point in time you try and calculate death rate from infected population, it is only 1/4 of the real death rate if you allow everyone to go from infection all the way through recovery or death. The new infections drown out the scale of how many are dying. The faster the doubling time which results in a bigger influx of new cases, and the longer the delay in outcome (death or recovery), the greater this effect. Note coronavirus doubles faster and time to resolution is longer than this example. Death rate is unknown but likely less than this example.

We have exactly one example of coronavirus that is snapshotted over time, it is the most pure example to follow. The diamond princess. It is the only “fixed experiment” that we have. As opposed to other populations the DP population was exposed and infections painstakingly counted. The exposures on the DP were all essentially at the same time, over a short period of time. As we follow the DP overtime no fresh cases are being added to cloud the picture of what is happening. We can then follow the outcome of all passengers over the required weeks and months, without clouding the picture will new cases occurring. As stated currently 10 of 712 passengers have died, 15 are still serious/critical, depending how those 15 resolve we will have min 10 deaths maximum 25 deaths.

But...until ALL have resolved we cannot actually state any final death rate, just a range with a maximum and minimum. And consider how long this “experiment” has been going on and we still have no answer. In fact when all infections had occurred on the diamond princess, there were only something like 50 known cases in the entire US. Now > 100K. And still over 1/2 of the cases from the diamond princess we do not know the live/die outcome of. Let that sink In!!

Now, back to Sweden...

I’ve been trying to follow a lot of the local papers around the world to get information as close to the source as i can.


Every country will follow similar patterns, but somewhat different rates. The time it takes for cases to double is not the same everywhere. There are things that do appear highly correlated to the rate of spread though.

1) Places with large international gateway airports. Makes sense, people bring it from other countries.
2) Tends to be worse with increasing population density
3) Tends to be worse with increases shared spaces, this is likely part of the reason why NYC has blown up faster than LA or Seattle. People ride the subway vs people driving their own cars, etc.

Anyway, this post is long enough. If something is not clear let me know.
 
Last edited:

Trevor Kuntz

Professional Dog Owner
Feb 5, 2012
482
645
281
Arizona
1% of Congress (1/100 Senators and 4/435 Reps) have tested positive for COVID-19 as of yesterday.

 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

ChrisV

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 10, 2015
3,103
6,531
1,512
Islands of Calleja
I don't know about anybody else, but this quarantine has made my life so much easier.

My doctors call me, my deliveries are hand-delivered to me. I've been saving so much time and money in gas it's unbelievable.

I can get used to this.
 

JScott

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Speedway Pass
Aug 24, 2007
4,532
9,787
2,201
For the record, it's people like you and @GIlman (and some others) that keep me coming back to this thread - people with data-driven attitudes that are willing to change and revise their opinions and theories as better data emerges.
Thank you.

Unfortunately, I've been told by one of the moderators that my contributions here are worthless, so I'll be staying out of this (and many other) threads at this point...

But I do appreciate the kind words...
 

LightningHelix

Bronze Contributor
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Mar 26, 2015
107
214
155
33
I don’t know anything about Sweden as a country, but as @Antti points out the situation appears to be deteriorating. One problem I’ve seen with this pandemic is that things change so rapidly that you must make sure to be looking at the Very latest news and data. Stories and data from 2+ days ago can be totally different than today. Again I haven’t dug deep into Sweden, but we can’t point to any country as a success where infection rate is growing not shrinking. We have seen this pattern time and again that places that seemed fine, just blow up with mounting deaths seemingly overnight.

Even news anchors and experts they have on are giving false information. Last night I saw an epidemiologist expert on saying that we shouldn’t expect it to be as bad as people are saying because on the diamond princess the death rate was 1% and 7 people had died - totally false. People assume they can stop watching eventually and things wind change. As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness

As of yesterday when he said this in fact 10 people had died and 15 remain in serious/critical condition. It’s not a good sign for people to be in serious/critical condition for so long. Some of those are highly likely to die, and many of those who do live are highly likely to have life long handicaps and may even be ventilator bound for the rest of their lives.

As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness. So so many people struggle with this concept. It literally takes months and months to see the impact. if someone doesnt grasp and factor this in, they will derive a very very different picture than what is happening under the surface.

In a live dynamic population, you can’t ever see the true picture because infected are sometimes unaccounted for and also the exponentially increasing influx of new cases clouds what’s happening. People usually die starting 2-3 weeks after they got sick, but it can take much longer. So the deaths you see today are outcomes from 2-3 weeks (or longer) ago infections .

With a mushrooming, exponentially growing, new # of infections, it appears that the # dead is much less significant than it really is. Just look at an exponential growth curve. As long as something is doubling at a high rate, it gives false hope and the wrong outlook.

Let’s do a little thought experiment to demonstrate this. On day 1 we have 100 people infected. We assume the infection doubles ever 7 days, and on average it takes 2 weeks to die. 10% of the infected die at exactly 2 weeks after they initially get infected and no additional people die after more than 2 weeks of becoming infected. Here is our data.

7 days in, total 200 (100 new) infected 0 dead.
14 days in, total 400 (200 new) infected 10 dead
21 days in, total 800 (400 new) infected 20 dead
28 days in, total 1600 (800 new) infected 40 dead
35 days in, total 3200 (1600 new) infected 80 dead
42 days in, total 6400 (3200 new) infected 160 dead
Assume at this point a treatment to prevent new infection is developed, but there is no cure and treatment for those infected.
49 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 320 dead
56 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 640 dead

notice that at any point in time you try and calculate death rate from infected population, it is only 1/4 of the real death rate if you allow everyone to go from infection all the way through recovery or death. The new infections drown out the scale of how many are dying. The faster the doubling time which results in a bigger influx of new cases, and the longer the delay in outcome (death or recovery), the greater this effect. Note coronavirus doubles faster and time to resolution is longer than this example. Death rate is unknown but likely less than this example.

We have exactly one example of coronavirus that is snapshotted over time, it is the most pure example to follow. The diamond princess. It is the only “fixed experiment” that we have. As opposed to other populations the DP population was exposed and infections painstakingly counted. The exposures on the DP were all essentially at the same time, over a short period of time. As we follow the DP overtime no fresh cases are being added to cloud the picture of what is happening. We can then follow the outcome of all passengers over the required weeks and months, without clouding the picture will new cases occurring. As stated currently 10 of 712 passengers have died, 15 are still serious/critical, depending how those 15 resolve we will have min 10 deaths maximum 25 deaths.

But...until ALL have resolved we cannot actually state any final death rate, just a range with a maximum and minimum. And consider how long this “experiment” has been going on and we still have no answer. In fact when all infections had occurred on the diamond princess, there were only something like 50 known cases in the entire US. Now > 100K. And still over 1/2 of the cases from the diamond princess we do not know the live/die outcome of. Let that sink In!!

Now, back to Sweden...

I’ve been trying to follow a lot of the local papers around the world to get information as close to the source as i can.


Every country will follow similar patterns, but somewhat different rates. The time it takes for cases to double is not the same everywhere. There are things that do appear highly correlated to the rate of spread though.

1) Places with large international gateway airports. Makes sense, people bring it from other countries.
2) Tends to be worse with increasing population density
3) Tends to be worse with increases shared spaces, this is likely part of the reason why NYC has blown up faster than LA or Seattle. People ride the subway vs people driving their own cars, etc.

Anyway, this post is long enough. If something is not clear let me know.
I really think more people need to read this post.
 

ChrisV

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 10, 2015
3,103
6,531
1,512
Islands of Calleja
If this were true, then could you explain why Sweden (check this post: HOT TOPIC - The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...) despite having almost no restrictions compared to Europe and the first case recorded on the same date as Italy (January 31) is still functioning relatively normally and doesn't suffer from healthcare overload or anything like that? According to this theory it should have been a collapsed country already.

I'm not trying to argue, I'm just super confused why almost every country preaches social distancing while Sweden fares so well without such restrictive measures and they're fine (and by all accounts, they should be completely utterly messed up now).
There are a lot of factors... population density, physicians per capita, respirators per capita, hospital beds per capita; and every community has different needs.

@GIlman and I discussed this exact topic on his podcast


Italy basically had to have a lockdown because their situation got so out of control, but on the flip side Germany had very few deaths from this; despite having roughly the same population. It's unclear as to why.

31621

Germans are not known to be a particularly touchy-feely, I-want-to-hug-you race of people, so perhaps social distancing has just been part of their culture for hundreds of years. I've seen something similar with the Japanese, who have low infection rates; and aren't known to be touchy-feely.
 
Last edited:

Kak

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jan 23, 2011
6,046
26,233
4,554
so I'll be staying out of this (and many other) threads at this point...
You mean threads where you look like a prick? I wonder what thread you mean by that...

I guess your signature, “admit when you’re wrong,” holier than thou, self righteous bullshit doesn’t apply when you’re this deep in huh?
 

GIlman

Still Gilman
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 16, 2014
684
3,836
886
The real death toll in Wuhan was 45,000. Based on the amount of cremated urns.

Honest question, what point are you trying to make. I’m unclear based on your past responses.
 

GIlman

Still Gilman
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 16, 2014
684
3,836
886
So, listening to interview from Trump just now, they are looking at travel bans from places in New York, Connecticut, etc. described as “An enforced quarantine”

Call me an alarmist if you wish, but we are following almost the identical trajectory of how Italy progressed.

Suggestions, recommendations, orders, travel restrictions, progressing to full or near full country lockdown. I predicted this way back in post #1119, but it wasn’t so much a prediction as modeling the US on other countries whose response and attitude seemed to match ours.

Remember the apex of deaths everywhere for the current wave occurs 3+ weeks after complete lockdown. That’s just the deaths, which lag infections. The extreme vast majority of humans don’t understand this. As this grows despite drastic measures, people demand more control, and they panic more and more as things worsen despite what appears to be maximum measures.
 
Last edited:

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Sponsored Offers

  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE You Are One Call Away From Living Your Dream Life - LightHouse’s Accountability Program ⚡
Dropping a quick note in here to say... if you are on TFL, you are part of an elite group of...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Fox's Web Design Guide: Earn $100K this year (Yes, 2020!) and Go Fastlane
Hey @Simon Angel thanks for the write up. I think there is a ton of potential in all areas...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE How To Create A 100K-1M+ Sales Funnel
@Lyinx lol man, okay. Just to make it clear to everyone else, I'm not involved with...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE KAK’s “Kill Bigger” Incubation Program- With DAILY personal attention.
I joined @Kak's business incubator in the first week of May. During our daily chats we uncovered...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Lex DeVille's - Advanced Freelance Udemy Courses!
This is your May reminder that you can do this. I'll keep it short. These are the May promos...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Grow Your Business With a Book (An Unorthodox Marketing Strategy That Built One of the Largest...
Thanks! This is a cool idea, actually. I would like to use your experience as I heard that these...
  • Sticky
FEATURED! Introducing... WEALTH EXPO$ED, A Short Story By MJ DeMarco
would this be available in paper version? I know it's short, but most of my family is...


Visit A Forum Sponsor
sponsor

New Topics

Fastlane Insiders

View the forum AD FREE.
Private, unindexed content
Detailed process/execution threads
Monthly conference calls with doers
Ideas needing execution, more!

Join Fastlane Insiders.

Top Bottom
AdBlock Detected - Please Disable

Yes, ads can be annoying. But please...

...to support the Unscripted/Fastlane mission (and to respect the immense amount of time needed to manage this forum) please DISABLE your ad-block. Thank you.

I've Disabled AdBlock