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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Vigilante

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So I am going to state the obvious, mainly for my benefit but we're going to apply simple business strategy to stay calm. We're faced with a new set of circumstances, and I am mindful of the old book "Who Moved My Cheese." People are resistant to change, and I can lump that in with the discussion(s) we have had here about normalcy bias.

A few times over the last few days, I have become overwhelmed within my own thoughts. What about... this? What if .... this... happens. What about that?

A few coping strategies :
  • people are refreshing spirituality - and if that is your thing, this is an excellent time to double down. If you "believed" during good times, now is the time to put that "faith" to the test
  • exercise. If you are quarantined, you can exercise. If you aren't, get out and get some fresh air. Get moving. Get your adrenaline going. Release some of those stress endorphins. Take a longer walk than you have taken before, and do it again tomorrow.
  • Invest in the kids. Really be present for any younger ones you have around. Intentional. Focused. They might be stressed also, but YOU can remedy that simply by meeting their emotional needs. Be there. Invest. Calm. Engage. They may never forget this time.
  • Take one block at a time. How do we solve business issues? We focus on the immediate need. We look long term, but then we take action in smaller steps. Methodical steps.
  • Slow everything down. It's ok to just BE, today. It's ok to let yourself relax a bit. To let go of the stress.
  • Find some new podcasts. Find some new music. Find some new religious streams. What ever. Find some new things of interest.
  • Let your life begin to adjust.
I have a vehicle whose lease was up... this week. I just called the bank and said I wasn't going to deal with that for a few months. I wasn't bringing it back, wasn't buying it, wasn't doing anything. That's one thing I am just not dealing with today. Know what the bank said? OK. Problem solved. I will deal with that some other time. BTW the worker from the bank I talked with? Today was her first day working at home. New reality for her, in her job, talking to me.

Amazon sellers in the United States are freaked out because Amazon announced overnight suspension of FBA shipments to Amazon. Know what my reaction is? OK. I will deal with that as it flows. I'll handle it. If I allow myself (like the hundreds of posts on their forum) to get my underwear all tied up in knots about it, I am not problem solving.

My business doesn't stop. Heck, I want to meet with more retail buyers, and now I don't have to fly to see them! I can SAVE MONEY and they would totally understand... they don't want to meet me face to face. So over the next few weeks, I will be changing my business to ZOOM with as many prospective customers as will take my invitation, and I may NEVER go back to the way it was.

My warehouse rent is due at the end of the month. I will deal with that... at the end of the month. There will probably be some forced flexibility there. However, prime example. NOT ON MY LIST TO DEAL WITH TODAY.

I have a family wedding in April. Guess what? NOT ON MY LIST TO DEAL WITH TODAY.

Prioritize like you would ANY business issue. Make this transition clinical. To coin a phrase from Steven Covey(?) put FIRST THINGS FIRST. Big rocks. Work only on the things that matter. Let some other things slow down for a while. Let some not so big priorities sit there.

Clear your head. Focus only on what matters. Turn off the TV news - there's plenty of other people that will fill you on on critical developments. For example, my buddy just messaged me - Florida is shutting bars and BREWERIES at 5PM. Now, I might let myself REACT to that a bit... I need to grab a few brewskis for 30 days coverage. But the news found me. I didn't have to study every late breaking press conference. The things that are important will work their way into your bunker.

Wash your hands. Seriously, were you people not washing your hands before?

This was just my current brain dump, as much to recalibrate where I am spending energy. Hope someone out there in the internet needed it as much as I did.
 
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biophase

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LOL, to all the people that are saying, XXX kills XXXX more people each year, or that the media is overblowing this... Those aren't actually the reasons to worry.

Has your factory in China ever been shut down over the flu? Do people empty out grocery stores because some people in their town catch a cold?

It doesn't matter what YOU actually think of the virus or even if you think it is real. What matters is what 10,000 people in your town do. If your streets are empty and your fridge is bare, you can certainly stay home and play videos games all day. But what happens when you are hungry and there is no food. Then does it really matter what YOU think?

Nobody here is doing anything crazy. Is buying extra food and water really insane? Sure you can laugh at people that are doing it. This is a total mindset thing. There are people that prepare and people that just go through life without planning.

On the business side, it's the same mindset. Where does your supplement company get all those plastic/glass bottles that they put all the private label stuff into? China, of course. The supplement powders might be made here, but the jars and caps come from China. I order my jars/bottles from a USA container company, so you might think, US company, no need to panic. But guess what? They come from China too and they are out of stock now. No ETA for their next shipment to arrive.

But guess what I did? I ordered a years worth of stuff a month ago. I have enough inventory to last until 2021 right now. I might be crazy, or I might be the only one in stock in September. Who knows. But am I going to risk my business on what I THINK about the virus, or am I going to go by what is actually going on.
 

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And it looks like the partisan "get Trump" crowd has arrived.

If you're going to use this forum to express your Trump Derangement Syndrome, the "it's all Trump's fault!!" narrative, you will be removed from the thread. If you think Trump is 100% to blame and you think you're going to express that here in THIS thread, you are wrong. Take your esteemed opinion over to Reddit where your HuffPost and MotherJones links will be absorbed without question.

We've lasted 50+ pages without it.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Point of Information:

In times like these when information is unknown, sketchy, unverifiable, and a lot of speculation, all you can do is FACTUALLY OBSERVE what is happening, and use that to make decisions.

This is why I prepped 4 weeks ago. This is why I stocked up on ammo and got 3 more weapons. This is why I was ready before the media started addressing it.

But here are the facts:

First: China's reaction to this virus was unimaginable, like straight out of an apocalyptic movie. Lock downs, full hazmat gear, quarantines, medical shanty towns ... THAT IS A FACT. From that fact, you can DEDUCE that they know the origin, threat, and likely epidemiology that his virus poses.

Second.

Trillions of dollars are at stake.

Major, billion/trillion dollar industries have gone on hiatus.

You simply don't do that for a flu. For a minor threat. Not when you stand to lose billions. To put it medically, industry knows that this can destroy the patient (the worldwide economy) if they don't address it, so they've decided to amputate a leg (a few months of industry) in order to stave it off.

Again, in life, if you really want to gauge the severity of something (or lack of severity) all you need to do is follow the money. Money is telegraphing that this is BIG, from the markets, to the shutdowns.

I don't care about pro sports -- but it was a big indicator, another datapoint to analyze. And it also made it REAL for the generally uninformed.

I hope the money flow is wrong and that yes, this is a nothing burger. The world's countermeasures perhaps can make that more likely. I hold hope as it seems to be a worldwide effort.

So who here has changed their daily life so far?
I stopped going to the gym 4 weeks ago. I've gained 6 pounds. I've never done well with the flu, this thing I don't want to get.
 

Fox

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Anyone else noticing a reset in dopamine levels/feeling way more gratitude?

Not to sound cheesy but I catch myself really enjoying simple things and just feeling really good. Last night I was thinking how comfy my couch was for like 5 minutes haha.

I know there is a lot wrong right now but there is so much to be happy and grateful about also - we might be all stuck inside but we still live better than 99.99% of people who ever lived.

I think the last year before this I had been kinda rushing around and not really taking in a lot of stuff. Slowing down and having to focus on the day to day has been really helpful and enjoyable. I have been sleeping some of my best sleeps ever also.

I'd be interested to see if anyone else is feeling similar.
 

Bekit

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Here's my observation, as someone who does not consume mainstream media.

I sense that people have real fear about this, but I can't tell if that fear is justified or just something manufactured by skillful fearmongers.

The media has really heightened and honed their ability to breed real fear of diseases over the past few years.

Fear is naturally contagious, but there will always be those people who shrug it off and say, "Meh, whatever. It's not going to be as bad as they're trying to get you to think."

I'm one of those people. But it seems that we have gotten thinned out by the media's increasing ability to convince a huge number of people that it WILL be as bad or worse than we think.

I remember discussing Ebola a few years back with a co-worker who was genuinely terrified of Ebola. His attitude was the same as the one in this thread title: "Is Ebola going to kill us all?" I realized then, "Wow, people actually believe this!" This guy was not unstable or just a wuss. He was a manly dude, earning very high wages, well liked, extremely good looking, and overall someone who was enjoying life and fun to be around.

I remember SARS being a thing. I went to China in January of 2004, and lots of people were still wearing masks. I've noticed periodically the contrast between how EVERYONE in China seemed to be adopting mask wearing as a normal thing, and how very few people here do so. It seems to me that China has been MORE successful at breeding that fear population-wide, but we are catching up.

I think this fear becomes easier and easier to breed because every successive event taps into the fear that was already aroused in the last round and just layers on top of it. So for instance, all the fear that built up in my coworker who was afraid of Ebola will probably revive in full force, and now coronavirus will just build on that.

Is it possible to experience a worldwide pandemic? Yeah.

Is it likely that this is it? I don't think so.

Will it affect some people? Yes. Will it be heartbreaking for them? Yes.

But car accidents affect people every day, and we're not terrified to drive our cars. In fact, we tend to think, "It won't happen to me."

Car accidents cause about 40,000 deaths per year in the US [source]. Worldwide, there are an estimated 1.24 million car accident deaths per year [source].

I can see us freaking out and feeling like "it might affect me" if the numbers approach car accident numbers.

I can see us progressing to think, "it might kill us all" if the numbers rise to double or triple that.

Until the death toll for this comes closer to car accident numbers, though, I think it's all just a bunch of hype and manipulation.
 

Walter Hay

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This thread would be great starting point for a PHD thesis on human behavior to a real or perceived danger.

We have every response on a very wide spectrum.
  • Denial
  • Boredom
  • It hasn't affected me or my family so it's not real
  • Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story
  • Wild guesses
  • Uneducated assumptions
  • The voice of reason
  • Unjustifiable speculation
  • The Russian roulette approach suits me
  • Blind faith in statistics (There are lies, damn lies and statistics.)
  • Blind faith in government disclosures
  • It's on YouTube so it must be a fact
  • Someone said... So it's a fact
  • I'll be OK
  • Only X,Y or Z types will catch it
  • I'm not in a high risk category so why worry
  • It's a conspiracy
  • It hasn't turned up in my locality, so why should I worry
Walter
 

Envision

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This is your thread reminder to take a break from this thread, social media, and the news.

Its easy to get worked up and lose control of your thoughts when all you do is feed your mind this information.

Go read a book, play with your pets, hangout with your family, FaceTime old friends, work on an idea.

This will all come to pass
 

MJ DeMarco

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Just because you are hunky dory about living on a farm, doesn’t mean that’s ok for everyone else.
Just because you're OK with millions of folks dying over a few % of GDP, doesn't mean that's OK for everyone else.

See how that works?

You've been removed from this thread for 1 week.

We understand your position, you've made it clear many, many times.

Maybe one week for now, it will change.
 

Vigilante

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This forum and this thread has been the best source of consolidated news anywhere on this subject. In my opinion this is an interesting new chapter for this forum. Absent of a few dumbasses the give and take has been solid.
 

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JAJT

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This thread would be great starting point for a PHD thesis on human behavior to a real or perceived danger.
One of my favorite posts in this thread.

I almost feel like I'm addicted to this thread just to see what people will post next. Is it news? A conspiracy? Unfounded claim? Interesting anecdote? Mathematical extrapolation?

It's almost like a soap opera that I just can't stop watching.
 

biophase

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July or August?!

Just let the 0.6% die and end containment honestly. That’s what we do with the flu. This is NOT WORTH the economic cost.

Look at what UK is doing. I think we are WAY over reacting here.
I guess we will see which way was better in hindsight.

But I'm ok with your solution, as long as the 0.6% is from your friends and family. See how f*cked up that sounds. It's ok as long as it doesn't affect you. That's basically what you are saying because you are only worried about your business and your money.
 
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MTEE1985

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  • If you are quarantined, you can exercise. If you aren't, get out and get some fresh air. Get moving. Get your adrenaline going. Release some of those stress endorphins. Take a longer walk than you have taken before, and do it again tomorrow.
  • Invest in the kids. Really be present for any younger ones you have around. Intentional. Focused. They might be stressed also, but YOU can remedy that simply by meeting their emotional needs. Be there. Invest. Calm. Engage.
Amen brother. We are combining the 2 on a daily basis.

31189 31190 31191

Edit: Made it to the top! 31205
 
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Andy Black

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Meanwhile, here in Ireland, I nipped to the shops to get some fruit, veg, and ice-cream.

There’s something to be said for living on a island with a population of 6 million, where there’s only two TV channels people tune in for the news, and where the government has been continually stressing the seriousness of the situation but telling people the supply chains are uninterrupted and shelves will be replenished.

Below are photos from inside one of two Aldi stores in our town of about 22k people at 3pm this Thursday the 19th of March 2020.

Schools, colleges, and childcare centres closed last Thursday. Pubs and restaurants closed on Monday.

We’re currently at 366 confirmed cases in Ireland, with 15,000 expected by the end of March.

Hospitals are ramping up. 24k care workers and medical staff have responded to a national call for help in the past three days.

30,000 test kits were due into the country today.

The national sports stadium has been turned into a drive through test centre.

The lab doing the actual tests has gone from 30 tests a day two weeks ago to 900 a day and is nearing capacity.

If rumours are to believed the army is setting up emergency hospitals in various barracks.

We’re not in full lockdown yet, but the head of government’s St Patrick Day address emphasised that this was the calm before the storm. It’s worth listening to that address. I think Leo did a great job.

I know we’ve a long way to go but I’m fierce proud of the way this country has been dealing with this emergency so far.


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Oh, and our 7 year old gave me his shopping list when I got back. Bless.

2C3D0435-4D1E-40B5-87A5-0B153B91AB2C.jpeg


@Fox ... I know you’re worried about your family back in Ireland. I hope this helps allay some of your fears.
 

Vigilante

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I'd like to give a bit of recognition to someone who usually shys away from the spotlight. There is a forum member who behind the scenes is working to make the global crisis a bit easier for the first responders. In an era where "entrepreneurs" get a bad rap from profiting on the misfortune and/or increased demand for in-demand products, there are some people behind the scenes.

A week or two ago I let it be known that I was searching for medical grade masks to equip an organization who has jump teams that are providing critical machine maintenance to hotspot hospitals in a several state service area. Their teams were out of N95 masks, yet continued working and going straight into hospitals dealing with CoronaVirus patients.

And in typical Fastlane Forum member fashion, a trait unique amongst many insiders at this place in contrast to the rest of the internet (and world, seemingly) a fastlane member stepped up and gave selflessly. Pulling some strings, he arranged for the delivery to me of multiple boxes of N95 masks. And before you ask, he depleted his entire resource to help me provide to this team, FREE OF CHARGE, with the critical protection they needed, just when they needed it. He sent me BOXES of masks, whose retail value has shot through the roof. The same products that are selling for ridiculous multiples, the same products that are impossible to get, the same masks that could have created a crazy profit had he just kept them and sold them... he sent them. In fact, he overnighted them. For free.

I was able to get them into the hands of the jump teams, who will be using them on the front lines. At a minimum, this selfless act kept people from getting sick, and possibly many due to the multiplication effect. At a maximum, we'll never know if he just literally may have saved a life or two or more.

I am not going to OUT him here, as he is the type of guy that doesn't ever ask for the limelight. For those of you who have attended the past few meetups, you might be able to pinpoint who it is but I ask that you not speculate on these pages to maintain his privacy and anonymity. But I know he will see this post, and I know that he already knows he's appreciated with a debt that cannot be repaid.

And that, folks, is what keeps a lot of us connected together through this forum.
 

James Klymus

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The only cure for coronavirus is some limes.

I prefer modelovirus though, if im honest.

But in all seriousness, the media is sensationalizing things like usual. 2 Weeks ago we were on the brink of world war 3, now the next plague is upon us.

Also, compared to 100 years ago, we've come a long way with our understanding of viruses and treatment. In people with healthy immune systems, it is rarely fatal. The people who have died were already in poor health.


The jokes and memes I've seen going around show how "concerned" people actually are about this.

Ironically I have a bit of a stuffy nose and sore throat as I type this, so it was nice knowing you guys.
 

Vigilante

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Non-preppers angry at preppers because non-preppers called preppers panicked until non-preppers panicked and tried to prep but they were too late.

People who normally buy 1 week of toilet paper who bought 3 weeks worth last week weren’t greedy or panicked, they were smart. People who mocked them then are fighting in Costco parking lots now.

Remind me who the dumb ones are?
 

biophase

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I shared what I shared because this thread had me legit panicked for about 4 hours a few days ago. Some people have shared some seemingly credible scary stuff on here.

The unknown nature of this gave my brain fits, especially when I asked myself, "What if my kids got the possibly weaponized never seen before world infecting killer virus for which we have no cure?"

Brain. Stopped. Working.

My fear felt irrational.

So I started seeking out the counterpoints. I had to know to what level of fear was rational.

And if I struggled with this kind of emotion, then others probably are/have.

That said, I personally stocked up because it is better to have and not need than need and not have.
This leads to an interesting question. As business owners, we deal with the unknown all the time. In fact, the unknown is pretty much the only truth that we know.

So maybe this is why some of us act differently than others to this virus. I know for me, my first reaction was to read the data, come to my own conclusions, make my own predictions and then do something about it.

This is why I stocked up a few weeks ago. That was for me personally. For my business, I ordered additional supplies that we needed for inventory and took steps to make sure we had enough inventory for the next 6-8 months.

When talking to others who work a regular job, they seemed to downplay everything. They didn't like to think about "what if scenarios." Maybe that is because "what if scenarios" to them are all doom and gloom. If you think about it, 9 to 5 workers worry about alot of things, like the economy, whether or not they will get laid off, and they can't do anything about them.

Maybe as entrepreneurs we see things from a different lens. We are used running scenarios in our heads and developing plans and solving problems.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Andy Black

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ChrisV

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I found this 'good news' list on Snopes, who says the list is true:

A viral list notes numerous "good news" items related to the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus disease pandemic.

31343
How about some good news?

– China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

– Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

– Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.

– A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

– Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

– Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

– Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.

– Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.

– Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

– 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

– A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

– A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

– Tulsa County’s first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

– All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.

– Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
 

Vigilante

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Below are some key highlights/takeaways from a Goldman Sachs investor call that was held yesterday (Saturday) re Covid-19 and its economic implications where 1,500 companies dialed in.
Key Takeaways:
---------------------

(1) Projection that 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150MM people) as it is very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and of which the majority of Americans will get 2-3 times per year.

(2) Expectation that 70% of Germany (58MM people) will contract the virus. As you know, Chancellor Angela Merkel projects this same figure. This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected - watch carefully.

(3) Peak - virus expected over the next 8 weeks, declining thereafter.

(4) The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees North latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, this virus prefers cold weather. It is expected that the coming summer in the Northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

(5) Of those impacted, 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu. These are stay at home for 2 weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly-weighted toward the elderly.

(6) Mortality rate, on average, up to 2%, heavily weighted toward the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning possibly up to 3MM (150MM x 2%) people. In the U.S. about 3MM/year die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated. There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3MM new deaths from this virus. It means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. Covid-19 may, however, stress the healthcare system.

(7) There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The U.S. is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending toward allowing it to spread, so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage, but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

(8) China’s economy has been significantly impacted, which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to 6 months for it to recover.

(9) Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

(10) S&P 500 companies likely to see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

(11) There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Goldman believes stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

(12) In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between the KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies the U.S., now a large energy exporter, is feeling a significant negative impact on the valuation of its domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the U.S.

(13) Technically, the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

(14) There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that as the private banking sector is very well capitalized. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them. Goldman did not address non-bank banks and their respective balance sheets, which are not as healthy as the regulated banking sector.

(15) Goldman: This feels more like 9/11 than 2008…
 

biophase

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I was talking to my friend and she was saying that she couldn't find hand sanitizer and thought it was dumb that people are hording it. She doesn't think much of the virus situation.

What I explained to her was that it doesn't matter what she thinks. She said all those people are stupid for buying up all the sanitizer, but the fact is that she is out of sanitizer and other people have alot of it.

So who is the dumb one in this situation?

This is much like when @MJ DeMarco says, the market doesn't care what you think. Just because you don't believe the corona virus is dangerous doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything about it. If you know that there will be a run on XXXXX product, and you use that product, why not buy more? Why not go to the store today, instead of next week?

So when you are out of toilet paper and you have wipe your a$$ with your hand, think about who the idiot is. :)
 

BizyDad

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THANK YOU EVERYONE.

Sincerely, so many of you have spent serious time this thread typing out pages of in-depth pages of thoughts and positions and theories and advice.

It is a really amazing to behold. I have learned so much more than I possibly could have accumulated on my own .

And I for one just want to take a moment and thank you for caring enough about this community and your fellow man to be this invested in this thread (and forum).
 
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