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HOT! The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Kak

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I am just laughing... We still have the loser lefties STILL arguing in favor of lockdowns when most have been lifted at this point. There isn’t anything close to “blood in the street” that was originally predicted. Sorry commies. You lost the argument.

99% of people DIDN'T get a clinical case, which means the stupid curve could have blown up just the same after the lockdown lift.

The only acceptable argument at this point is that the lockdowns were worthless and the government is just trying to save face. Daddy Trump's swift actions "saving us all" pegs my bullshit meter.

I have been out to eat at least 5 times in the last week and a half. I don’t wear a mask. I shake hands. I don’t care.

At this point I would go to a sporting event even though I don’t like sports. :rofl:
 
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VTK

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As Italian living in Germany (where we had "light" lockdown measures comparatevely speaking, i.e. closed restaurants, cancelled big events and the such - but NO stay at home order beside for grocery shopping or going to the hospital - which you may also call house arrest), may I ask you to also have a look at the German chart?

Sure, strict lockdowns work to bring numbers down, but are they really necessary? There are nations like Germany which show declines without having to shut down completely everything for 2 months and longer. With obvious consequences on economy, mental and physical health...

It's a good point. The UK and Germany are relatively speaking comparable countries. The UK absolutely 100% ended up needing a lockdown, Germany didn't.

What made it necessary in the UK but not Germany? The Germans had a massive and relatively effective testing and tracing system which along with minor restrictions they used to suppress the spread of the virus and prevent it from over-whelming health services. The UK by contrast only paid lip-service to testing and tracing and held back on any restrictions until a massive base rate of infection had been established. The UK also has several large, international and densely populated cities with London being exceptionally vulnerable to pandemics. If the UK hadn't have locked down, things would have gotten nasty very quickly.

Sweden is another example. They don't have lockdowns but they don't have a huge, densely populated country. This is a generalisation but they seem to be a societally conscientious population who observed strong social distancing without needing it pushing by the Government. This is backed up by credit card data that shows that there was barely any difference in the drop in spending between neigbouring Norway who did lock-down and Sweden who didn't. It's also evidenced by the serology studies showing that very few people in Sweden have been infected. The UK and Sweden started with the same strategy and got two extremely different results, so again it shows the conversation requires nuance and context.

South Korea didn't need a full lock-down despite being hit hard and early by Corona, because they have an exceptional testing, tracing and quarantining system. The UK and US didn't have a system like this, Spain and Italy also didn't (or got blindsided).

So lockdowns aren't strictly necessary and can be avoided with strong early epidemiological controls, but in some countries they became necessary.
 

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This makes me laugh. Sure the lock-down slowed stuff down, but WHO CARES. Lock-down might slow the spread of the annual flu as well, but is that something that needs to be done?

I read in the paper the other day that something close to 80% of the deaths in my Province were the elderly in long-term care homes. While that is a tragedy, if you ask me it is something on its own. We failed our elderly, and this just highlighted it in a big way.

Back to young, healthyish people. Do they need to be locked down? WHY???????? It is a giant a$$ non event. People get sick all the time! Why destroy everything to stop them from getting sick? They get sick, they get better.

I will do you one better. I have a good friend who's life might LITERALLY BE SAVED because of COVID19. Yup, you read that right. He has had leg pain for a while and went in to get it checked out, they booked him in for some proper scans that would take place in 2021 (Thanks Canada!). A few weeks ago he started having trouble breathing and he thought he caught the COVID, so he went in to get tested. They all came back negative, so they decided to do those scans right away. Turns out he had hip cancer that is spreading through this body and somehow ended up in this lungs. So they got him on treatments right away.

He would probably be dead if he had waited until the original scan date, instead thanks to COVID19 he was able to get in and scanned and get treatment right away. He has a young daughter at home. COVID19 might end up being what SAVED this little girls father.

Lock down? WHYYYY???????????
 

Kak

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1590763927925-jpeg.33237

Credit to @Thoelt53 for this epic meme.
 

MTF

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Interesting initiative that might help better understand how widespread the virus actually is at the moment.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Hey you.

Yes, YOU.

You reading this.

F— it.

There's better things to do with your time than argue on the internet.

Sincerely,
-UC

See, that's where you're wrong.
 

ChrisV

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Hey you.

Yes, YOU.

You reading this.

F— it.

There's better things to do with your time than argue on the internet.

Sincerely,
-UC
I think that arguing can actually serve an important role. It allows you to see past your own idealogical echo-chamber. It also forces one to put their ideas out there and have them torn apart.

It's actually how the scientific method works, and the scientific method is the best tool humanity has ever developed for arriving at truth. One researcher puts out their puts out their idea, and other researchers try to rip it to shreds. Within that destruction the grain is separated from the chaff.

It appears as though noone is changing their mind because often people have to let the ideas bounce around their heads for a little while before they incorporate all the information, but actually arguing is an essential learning process. Did you learn anything from my argument? ;)
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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Speaking of conspiracy nuts, I find the following quite amusing, I think someone had possibly some fun with it all.

The corona virus was declared a pandemic on 11 March.

Revelation 3:11 KJV:
I am coming soon. Hold on to what you have, so that no one will take your crown.

[Latin corona, meaning "crown" or "wreath"]

Revelation 3:10 KJV:
Since you have kept my command to endure patiently, I will also keep you from the hour of trial that is going to come on the whole world to test the inhabitants of the earth.
What about all the other verses that line up with dates?

It’s like someone saying they saw three 7’s on their way to buy a lotto ticket and won...

What about the other hundred times you saw them and didn’t win?
 
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ChrisV

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Videos from 2018 / 2015:

Jordan Peterson talks with Jonathan Haidt - Infectious disease and authoritarian belief


Jordan Peterson - Correlation Between Prevalent of Infectious Diseases & Authoritarian Belief


Original study:

33245
 

MTF

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Experts say that if the US severs ties with the WHO, there could be catastrophic consequences to global public health. The US contributes hundreds of millions of dollars to its efforts. “It’s surreal to even be having this conversation, since it’s so hard to get one’s head around the massive implications,” Rebecca Katz, director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University, told Nature this week.

LMAO. Look around the world and you'll see catastrophic consequences before your very own eyes. The world surely can't be in a worse shape without WHO. I dare say it might actually be a better place if one of the most corrupt organizations in the world will be underfunded.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Thoelt53

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Vigilante

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Make a separate thread about the riots
 

Kak

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Make a separate thread about the riots

Nothing like race riots to cure a fake virus danger. My sincere hope that they are “practicing social distancing” while stealing air fryers from target.

Seriously. Nothing says “end police brutality” like air frying some tater tots.
 
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David Harrison

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Hitler was a pussy compared to what's coming down the pike...

The Government contagion propaganda around ‘Covd-19’ is fueled by fear and hysteria. It is
skewing the usual NHS diagnostics towards making ‘C0VlD-19’ the ‘diagnosis-of-choice’. The
way suitably trained HCPs differentiate between all medical conditions which share similar
signs/symptoms has been fatally skewed and perniciously biased through this contagion
propaganda whose pernicious axiom presumes that everyone is a probable Typhoid Mary[1].
For example, the Government poster and TV campaign ‘Anyone Can Have It. Anyone Can

Transmit It’. This national campaign feeds both the public and HCPs Government advertised-
and-promulgated list of very generic and non-COVID-specific symptoms. These include

ubiquitous phenomena previously known to be non-fatal: sore throats, runny noses, coughs,
feeling hot etc. This dangerously weaponises the everyday experience of people against
themselves and others thereby and instilling contagion-fear, loathing and ultimately paranoia.


Reasonable debate is a relic of the "old" normal.
Do what you're told is the "new" Normal/dictatorship. (How do I get into North Korea)?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEhSk71gUCQ


yup, I know...
 

Vigilante

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A friend observed yesterday that the riots seemed to have cured the CoronaVirus.
 

David Harrison

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Hey, some good news for you guys...

HAPPYTALISM, a more advanced, holistic, and comprehensive economic genus and human development paradigm, which places the primacy of happiness, wellbeing, and freedom at the center of economic and human development, and all life, and seeks as it's ultimate end, the global happiness, wellbeing, and freedom of every human being on the planet by 2050," said Ndaba Mandela, UN AIDS Global Ambassador and co founder United Nations New Economic Paradigm Project.

Yep, it's nearly here.
Make sure you lock yourself up at home (be happy).
Stop creating anything that amounts to building a better life (be happy).
Be very afraid (but be happy).
Succumb to any dictates, regardless of "your" reasoning. (be happy).
Obey me, and BE HAPPY!! ; )


I know, you couldn't make this shit up...

But someone did!
 
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Tommo

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Clay County Judge nails it. Shortened by myself.
Before I rule, I'm advising everybody in this room, no public outbursts or displays. The court is still in session until you are told otherwise.

Since the inception of this insanity, the following regulations, rules or consequences have occurred: I won't get COVID if I get an abortion but I will get COVID if I get a colonoscopy. Selling pot is essential but selling goods and services at a family-owned business is not. Pot wasn't even legal and pot dispensaries didn't even exist in this state until five months ago and, in that five months, they have become essential but a family-owned business in existence for five generations is not.

A family of six can pile in their car and drive to Carlyle Lake without contracting COVID but, if they all get in the same boat, they will. We are told that kids rarely contract the virus and sunlight kills it, but summer youth programs, sports programs are cancelled. Four people can drive to the golf course and not get COVID but, if they play in a foursome, they will. If I go to Walmart, I won't get COVID but, if I go to church, I will. Murderers are released from custody while small business owners are threatened with arrest if they have the audacity to attempt to feed their families.

These are just a few of examples of rules, regulations and consequences that are arbitrary, capricious, and completely devoid of anything even remotely approaching common sense.


The defendant in this case orders you to stay home and pronounces that, if you leave the state, you are putting people in danger, but his family members traveled to Florida and Wisconsin because he deems such travel essential. One initial rationale why the rules don't apply to him is that his family farm had animals that needed fed. Try selling that argument to farmers who have had to slaughter their herds because of disruption in the supply chain.
When laws do not apply to those who make them, people are not being governed, they are being ruled. Make no mistake, these executive orders are not laws. They are royal decrees. Illinois citizens are not being governed, they are being ruled. The last time I checked Illinois citizens are also Americans and Americans don't get ruled. The last time a monarch tried to rule Americans, a shot was fired that was heard around the world. That day led to the birth of a nation consensually governed based upon a document which ensures that on this day in this, any American courtroom tyrannical despotism will always lose and liberty, freedom and the constitution will always win.
The Honorable Michael D McHaney, chief judge
 

garyfritz

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I decided to apply for EIDL, since I've had over $10k in lost profit directly as a result of COVID/shutdown/etc.

I applied for $20k. My understanding is that they still plan to waive payback of the first $10k. (Still true?) I will hold onto the second $10k until I'm sure I won't need it, then pay back.

My business is a single-member LLC. I am the sole 100% owner and the only "employee." My job-related expenses (travel, etc) are normally paid by my clients. So other than minor expenses for occasional software purchases &etc, my LLC has basically no business expenses -- except paying modest W2 wages to the single employee (me) and distributing excess profits to the owners (also me) as dividends.

The EIDL paperwork says you have to have receipts for all expenses. Fine, I can do that. But it also says:
33274

Does that mean I can NOT use the EIDL funds to pay myself with distributions? What about W2 salary?
 

James Klymus

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A friend observed yesterday that the riots seemed to have cured the CoronaVirus.

But wait, they aren't social distancing when they're blowing up target and autozone!

Remember how people were getting pissed when those mean old Republicans and Libertarians were protesting without masks? Saying that they were morons who were spreading the virus. Where's the media now?

Trying to keep this corona related, I strongly believe that a big part of the reason people are being so rowdy right now, is because of the lockdowns. The George Floyd case is tragic, and I think this was the tipping point.

What happens when you have nothing to do all day except sit on social media, Where people are constantly yelling at you that the world sucks? I think you get this as a result. A lot of people have been on edge the past 3 months, and this is one of the ways they're finally cracking.
 

MTF

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But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1…

Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.
 

garyfritz

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But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered.
Norway, with their small and less-dense population, never went into sustained exponential growth of cases or deaths. So yes, lockdown might have been overkill for them.

But I don't think that's the case in the US. We sustained exponential growth through most of March, and only started to slow down after the lockdowns started.

There was a site that calculated the realtime Rt based on the incoming cases. This is basically the most accurate way we know how to estimate the actual growth rate. Most states had realtime Rt > 2.0 in March, and many were above 3.0. With the short incubation time, that was enough to cause dramatic exponential growth across much of the nation.

You can see the code (Python) at https://github.com/k-sys/C0VlD-19/blob/master/Realtime R0.ipynb. Unfortunately they seem to have broken it so I can't get it to update now, but the page has a copy of all the states' charts as of late April. You can see how many states had Rt >3.0 and even >4.0. Scroll down about 75% to the bottom of the page.

The current home of that project is at Rt C0VlD-19. Unfortunately that one is also broken, and their historic charts only go back to early April.
 

MTF

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Norway, with their small and less-dense population, never went into sustained exponential growth of cases or deaths. So yes, lockdown might have been overkill for them.

Yes, that's the point. Figure out where it does make sense and where it doesn't. A blanket policy makes no sense.

There was a site that calculated the realtime Rt based on the incoming cases. This is basically the most accurate way we know how to estimate the actual growth rate. Most states had realtime Rt > 2.0 in March, and many were above 3.0. With the short incubation time, that was enough to cause dramatic exponential growth across much of the nation.

I'm always curious how they calculate it considering that so many cases aren't reported. Seems like it's yet another model. I'm not saying the site is wrong, just pointing out that the number is yet another estimate, not real observable data.
 

garyfritz

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I'm always curious how they calculate it considering that so many cases aren't reported. Seems like it's yet another model. I'm not saying the site is wrong, just pointing out that the number is yet another estimate, not real observable data.
Sure. It's like a political survey. They canvas some likely voters, maybe 0.1% of the actual electorate, and use that to extrapolate an estimate. It's not precise because they didn't ask every single person, but they can get a pretty good estimate. Not within 0.001% of course, but close.

Likewise the Rt estimates aren't exact because they can't track all cases. But if the Rt calculation says 27 states had a realtime Rt over 3.0, you can be pretty confident it's not a situation like Norway.
 

James Klymus

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I know we've been beating a dead horse here since April, but I'm actually surprised to see Tony Robbins take on this:

View: https://youtu.be/YgP_Au5RZVw


I don't really follow Tony, but this video popped up on my feed. The video basically repeats everything we've been discussing since early April.
 

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