The Ukraine War, implications, outcome?

[Manfern]

It was a long war for a Ukraine, 8 years, last time they were attacking their own people(who wanted separation) and
civilian targets - schools and kindergartens - with tanks, their president a former actor and comedian - you get the picture?

Now Russia got involved to stop this madness and got blamed for everything, they even want to use it to get into EU urgently.
Of course war is bad and sometimes it's justified because - "Don't give weapons to idiots, they will kill each other"

 

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[loop101]

I saw the Russian stock market was "down 98%", so I bought a little bit of the Russian ETF "RSX".

Watch: Russian Trader Loses It On Live TV, Drinks To "Death Of The Stock Market" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Antifragile]

Watched some news from a Russian website Делегации России и Украины подвели итоги второго раунда переговоров в Белоруссии: Яндекс.Новости

Summary:

• Peace talks last round lasted 5+ hours.
• Some small progress has been made. Agreement to create humanitarian corridors with temporary cease fire. This is to allow civilians to get medical, food and pathway out of the conflict areas.

My own thinking here:

Putin must have expected sanctions. But the reaction of Russian people is harder to control. It’s not all ok and I hope it’s a lever that at least partly works to bring peace.

 

[Mathuin]

 

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[loop101]

If he wants to win, he will have to committ genocide on a mass level

Would the Ukrainians that are pro-Russia, be willing to commit a genocide against the Ukrainians that are anti-Russia? Putin may just have to create the environment for that to happen. The American Civil War brutal, and people on each side were often related to each other.

 

[Xeon]

If I am a Ukrainian I would be shocked that my leadership is not calling for a cease fire.

Instead I see people cheerleading the sending of Antitank/Stingers/Weapons to Ukraine, this will only prolong the inevitable misery and destruction of Ukraine, Ukraine cannot win this conflict without direct Western militaries going in there and fighting the Russians.

THIS. This guy gets IT.

The propaganda war has worked beautifully for Ukraine and it's their right to use it as they see fit, but it may backfire on them if they actually start to believe it.

This is why Zelensky is not the "hero" many see him as. He is despicable for the reasons:

1) Giving arms to civilians - in the event that one day after the war ends and Ukraine has no government left, and everyone has rifles at home, will some of these civilians and leftovers from the army form their own military factions, with many warlords fighting with each other for control of the country? And by giving arms to civilians to fight Russians, is this sending them to their deaths? Can a Ukrainian with a rifle on the street defend against the kind of missile that hit a building in Kharkiv?

2) Ukrainian propaganda seems to be trying to get Ukrainians to think that they actually have a chance to defeat the Russians. This in turn gets more civilians to take up arms to fight and sacrifice their lives. Zelensky is sending his own people to die.

 

[Antifragile]

THIS. This guy gets IT.




This is why Zelensky is not the "hero" many see him as. He is despicable for the reasons:

1) Giving arms to civilians - in the event that one day after the war ends and Ukraine has no government left, and everyone has rifles at home, will some of these civilians and leftovers from the army form their own military factions, with many warlords fighting with each other for control of the country? And by giving arms to civilians to fight Russians, is this sending them to their deaths? Can a Ukrainian with a rifle on the street defend against the kind of missile that hit a building in Kharkiv?

2) Ukrainian propaganda seems to be trying to get Ukrainians to think that they actually have a chance to defeat the Russians. This in turn gets more civilians to take up arms to fight and sacrifice their lives. Zelensky is sending his own people to die.

It’s a hell of a lot more complicated than this… people should always fight for their rights. Having weapons might become a good thing.

And Putin miscalculated how much resistance he faced. He should have been in and out in 2 days. The longer this goes on, the worse for BOTH: Putin and Ukraine.

Anyway, appreciate reading your perspective.

I’m against war.

 

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[BizyDad]

Kind of crazy how many Americans relate everything that happens in the world back to their own media and the disputes between their political parties. I'm aware that's a generalizing statement and not representative of all Americans posting in this thread or on twitter.

The US/NATO security blanket

I tend to agree. For this reason I stopped replying for a while earlier in this thread when responses became more about US politics. It felt like hijacking and irrelevant. When I noticed that others weren't treating the thread this way, I popped back in.

But I'd like to provide maybe a little insight. First off, in your own comment, your very next paragraph starts with the US as a focus point.

That's part of what being in the US is about. We are practically from birth taught that we are the policeman of the world. Other nations keep looking to us to lead. It is our job to protect the world. It is so instinctual that you didn't focus on NATO, you led with US/NATO.

Meanwhile, it is a big debate internally on whether we should be the ones protecting the world. Should we really be spending this much on military? This debate has been going on my entire life. Trump won in large part because his American first policy said no we shouldn't be the policeman of the world. We should take care of ourselves and let the world take care of the world.

Also, Ukraine has been part of our political cycle for at least the last 8 years. The coverage is always biased, and we're certainly no experts, but it's not like we haven't been hearing about what's been going on there for quite some time. And it has come up in the presidential elections, even the elections for Congress. Trump and Biden had Ukrainian connections.

This kind of stuff makes the news here.

Of course Russia has been part of the political talk cycle for longer than I've been alive. Russia is always the boogeyman, except for maybe a few years of the last 40. It is probably pretty difficult for any American to have an unbiased or clear headed view of Russia.

While we are often poorly educated on what's going on worldwide, I sometimes wonder how much the political events in other countries even come up in the elections for other countries' leaders.

Ireland is neutral for example. Does what's going on in Venezuela or the Middle East or the South China Sea get mentioned when you are electing your leaders? It's an honest question.

Everyone is suddenly a military and history expert.

Well, being an epidemiologist was getting boring...

Jokes aside. I hear you.

Can I suggest instead of ignoring people, you ignore certain threads instead?

I know for me, I often get bent when I visit the main chat thread. So much nonsense pops in there, and often from people I respect, so my experience on this forum is way better when I just don't go there.

That’s a rather unfair statement.

I don't think it was unfair. Of course a lot of people here are opposed to what Russia is doing now...

And I'm not going to fact check myself on this, but I believe it is accurate that black dragon is the only one to list the different territories that Russia has claimed since 2008, not to mention the assassinations etc etc. Maybe Hadrian did too?

Your comments make it sound like you're only upset with Russia because of this invasion. And that's most people on this thread. Maybe I'm just reading too much or too little into people's comments.

I agree that BD has made some incredibly wild statements and I understand how you could be hurt or offended or upset with him. Or me even, but at least I'm not ignored, so that's something.

But I don't think I was being unfair by giving Black Dragon very specific credit where I felt credit is due.

another early “favorite” post

My personal "favorite" post of his was when he said he understood how megalomaniacs think.

Like reading a few derivatives of Machiavelli makes you an expert on the machinations of nations-states.

which for the most part I've tried to ignore.

Bro, you wanted to bomb Moscow. You deserved some push back.

You're entitled to your opinions, and I agree with some of the stuff you've said, but you have launched some doozies. Please don't play the victim if you've been dishing it out.

Saying things like "I don't mean calling you extremely childish as an insult" qualifies as dishing it out. So does calling people cowards.

These are not things that are part of civil discourse.

 

[Silverfox148]

Something Europe/USA/West are not considering is that it actually benefits Putin/Russia geopolitically for Ukraine to become a basket case and break apart ala Syria with multiple warring factions. It would then turn the tables on NATO and has the possibility of drawing in NATO itself once the Russians pull out officially with Russia turning factions in Ukraine as a proxy against NATO itself. This thing can go many ways.

Putin does not want to occupy Ukraine as whole, he will keep the land bridge to Crimea in the east most likely with the recognized breakaway provinces but that's all I really see benefiting the Russians. In all reality the Russians have already achieved their strategic goals, Ukraine is not going to be joining NATO anytime soon nor are any big permanent western bases/militaries bases/missiles going in, and with it an active war zone for the foreseeable future most likely ruled by warlords Ukraine as a unified country is over. Yet another reason why there should be calls for an immediate cease fire.

Nobody really knows what the true Russian goals are for this action, Putin is a pretty cynical individual who I have no doubt is willing to sacrifice Ukraine for his own goals with regards to Russian security, once again Ukraine may be playing into Putin's game.

 

[nothingness]

Someone back a few pages said we don't live in a dictatorship.

Well, don't we? Literally every brit I spoke to yesturday when out said they don't want another war, why can't the UK just keep itself to itself and stop following the US to every new country the US wants to meddle in?

If we go to war we won't get a vote. Boris / HoL / HoC will just tell us we are going to war.

Sounds like a dictatorship to me.

 

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[Vadim26]

If you keep poking the bear - eventually it will attack.

 

[BizyDad]

Very disturbing trend that Russian citizens in the west be target of retaliation soon.

I agree. Someone earlier also mentioned Russians being banned from upwork. I think it's very concerning that the average Russian citizenry is facing consequences like these.

Call me naive, call me old-fashioned, but there should be a difference between a military strike and attacks on civilians. This is cancel culture run amok, and it does not bode well for the future.

Not to derail into politics or take this out of context of a post which I don't know enough about to assess, but seems sensibly written, but what do you call
'if you post misinformation online you should be banned from all social media platforms'
'spreading a misleading narrative online that undermines public trust in government institutions=terrorism'
'we must protect vaxinated people from unvaxinated people'
'winter of severe illness and death for unvaxinated'

if not bullying (or a lot worse)?

Honestly, this was the first I've heard these quotes. I went and googled them just to see what you were talking about.

I think you have a good point.

Also, while his Russian bias might be showing, it's pretty damn obvious your U.S. bias

Yes I have a US bias. Not only because I'm American, but because I'm a first generation American. I see what my family lives like in other countries. And I'm incredibly thankful and considerate myself blessed and fortunate to be an American.

But as a minority American, I don't think my US bias is quite as strong as you think it is. I'm very much aware of how imperialistic the United States can be.

And I think that's my main problem with Xeon is saying. There is so much intelligent criticism that can be leveled at the United States.

Instead he is saying stuff like this...

Maybe Ukraine is the 52th state?

Literally while Russia is attempting to annex Ukraine, he is accusing the United States of wanting to do so.

This is irrational thinking at best. At worst, it's pro Russian propaganda. But it doesn't stop there.

Invading another country is wrong, but at least they didn't come up with a thousand excuses about fighting for "freedom and democracy".

Their lack of hypocrisy makes them less repulsive and disgusting. In the case of another country, it's always along the lines of "hey buddy, we care for you, we want to protect you, and we're going to invade your country and take your resources for your own good".

Here again, he accuses the United States of wanting to do exactly what Russia is actually doing.

Delete the word democracy from this response, and this is exactly the Russian justification for this war.

But he'll want us to believe that the United States is the only one that does stuff like this.

Well read this comment...

It was a long war for a Ukraine, 8 years, last time they were attacking their own people(who wanted separation) and
civilian targets - schools and kindergartens - with tanks, their president a former actor and comedian - you get the picture?

Now Russia got involved to stop this madness and got blamed for everything, they even want to use it to get into EU urgently.
Of course war is bad and sometimes it's justified because - "Don't give weapons to idiots, they will kill each other"

I am glad to hear from someone in Russia here. Thank you for contributing.

Also @Raja thank you for providing an Indian commentary. I meant to mention that sooner.

Can the US perhaps be more like Canada or New Zealand?

Part of me wishes this was the case. I'm very sympathetic to this. That said, based on my previous comment, I just don't see how this is going to be possible.

When a war breaks out somewhere, nobody says hey New Zealand can you help us put the stop to this?

War is our business. I read recently that the United States has only had 21 calendar years where we weren't involved in a conflict. We have been involved in one war or another for over 200 years of our existence.

All these countries you mentioned only have fights with their neighbours. It's not uncommon. Do they go all the way to the other side of the world to meddle in other countries' affairs?

Yes most of the countries I mentioned meddle on other continents. That I can think of, France, UK, China, Iran, US, Russia meddle the affairs of African nations. Saudi Arabia does too, but maybe you consider them a neighbor. Several of these nations meddle in the affairs of Latin American countries also.

If you said the United States was the worst offender, I would agree with you. But you keep making it sound like the United States is the only one. And that is just false.

Either you're completely ignorant about what happens in the world, or you are being intellectually dishonest just to try and sound right.

Like I said before, there are plenty of factual reasons to be anti-American. Just please stop making up nonsense.

Something Europe/USA/West are not considering is that it actually benefits Putin/Russia geopolitically for Ukraine to become a basket case and break apart ala Syria with multiple warring factions. It would then turn the tables on NATO and has the possibility of drawing in NATO itself once the Russians pull out officially with Russia turning factions in Ukraine as a proxy against NATO itself. This thing can go many ways.

Putin does not want to occupy Ukraine as whole, he will keep the land bridge to Crimea in the east most likely with the recognized breakaway provinces but that's all I really see benefiting the Russians. In all reality the Russians have already achieved their strategic goals, Ukraine is not going to be joining NATO anytime soon nor are any big permanent western bases/militaries bases/missiles going in, and with it an active war zone for the foreseeable future most likely ruled by warlords Ukraine as a unified country is over. Yet another reason why there should be calls for an immediate cease fire.

Nobody really knows what the true Russian goals are for this action, Putin is a pretty cynical individual who I have no doubt is willing to sacrifice Ukraine for his own goals with regards to Russian security, once again Ukraine may be playing into Putin's game.

I find a lot of your comments interesting.

That said, I don't know what good will come up simply "calling for a ceasefire". From where I sit, there has been a lot of calling on Russia to cease firing immediately.

I could be wrong, but it doesn't appear like Russia wants to cease firing. And thus the world is leveraging the full weight of its soft powers (economic force, as opposed to hard power being military force) with the explicit aim of getting Russia to withdraw.

 

[Antifragile]

We are practically from birth taught that we are the policeman of the world. Other nations keep looking to us to lead. It is our job to protect the world. It is so instinctual that you didn't focus on NATO, you led with US/NATO.

I believe that a world mega power, an empire, must overspend on military and show strength by being the "protector" of the world. This is simply a deterrent of anyone trying to get the #1 spot. Am I wrong? I don't look at USA acting out the goodness of the hearts of all citizens when troops are sent into Vietnam, Korea etc. There is always a bigger motive.

Meanwhile, it is a big debate internally on whether we should be the ones protecting the world. Should we really be spending this much on military? This debate has been going on my entire life.

Yes, as long as USA remains the world's #1 empire it'll need to spend like the #1 empire until it loses that status. This is extremely expensive and typical in history. Dutch. British. Now USA.

Also, Ukraine has been part of our political cycle for at least the last 8 years. The coverage is always biased, and we're certainly no experts, but it's not like we haven't been hearing about what's been going on there for quite some time. And it has come up in the presidential elections, even the elections for Congress. Trump and Biden had Ukrainian connections.

Ukraine came into picture after Orange Revolution. Prior to that, it was pro-Russia with a puppet government. It makes sense that both Russia and the USA would pay a lot of attention post Orange Revolution to what occurs in Ukraine.

Well, being an epidemiologist was getting boring...

Jokes aside. I hear you.

Touche.

Can I suggest instead of ignoring people, you ignore certain threads instead?

I know. Kak said the same thing. You both are right. That said, this is one thread where during this war I feel like I should not ignore. I spoke to a friend here in Canada today whose father is in Kyiv, has Parkinsons and isn't going anywhere. All he can do is hope that the next bomb doesn't hit his dad's apartment. Another friend here has his mom (who was in Kyiv but moved west after first attack and now waiting to fly over to Canada asap). My own family in the west of Ukraine seems safe. Friends who were close and male have some hard choices to make.

But also there is the other side that few are willing to acknowledge. I have one of my best college friends who lives in Moscow. One of the nicest people you'll ever meet. In fact, I have so many Russian friends. And half of Ukrainians will have some Russian friends.

This isn't a conflict between countries. This is Putin VS "the Western World". Two incredibly similar and intertwined nations "at war". This isn't right. Ukrainians and Russians should not fight, period. Having lived in both places, having ties in both places I can tell you - ignoring this thread is hard.

I don't think it was unfair. Of course a lot of people here are opposed to what Russia is doing now...

Putin has been an aggressor since day 1 in power. I take it for granted and even responded to BD when he said that all of us think Putin is a nice guy. That was a first trigger for me - when did the sociopath with nukes become a "nice guy" in the west or anywhere else? What forum members were living under the rock to whom it's a surprise that Putin is an aggressive prick? Hell, he has to be to stay in power as long as he did!

I agree that BD has made some incredibly wild statements and I understand how you could be hurt or offended or upset with him. Or me even, but at least I'm not ignored, so that's something.

His response to my question about having kids triggered the ignore. I'd do anything for the safety of my kid. Asking if his opinion was theoretical or if he actually had kids was that test, should we talk or are we from different planets?

So while bombing Moscow was a "ok, whatever, everyone has opinions like assholes - most are full of shit". When someone claims that they'd sacrifice their kid over a ransom, holy crap, it's like we are from different planets. I don't want to read anymore.

Thanks for trying to broker peace here. I guess the real reason for my own decisions is that I'm actually feeling like shit all this time. This stuff (not the thread, but the actual events in Ukraine) is really eating away at me. My family is safe, but it's a stupid war. It should not be happening. Both Russia and Ukraine have compulsory military - meaning that the people dying are mostly forced to fight. It's just all F*cked. Yet there are no easy "black and white" solutions either.

/rant

 

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[Silverfox148]

I find a lot of your comments interesting.

That said, I don't know what good will come up simply "calling for a ceasefire". From where I sit, there has been a lot of calling on Russia to cease firing immediately.

I could be wrong, but it doesn't appear like Russia wants to cease firing. And thus the world is leveraging the full weight of its soft powers (economic force, as opposed to hard power being military force) with the explicit aim of getting Russia to withdraw.

The reason I mention calling for a ceasefire is because it gives the Russian side an off ramp if they want to take it. I don't know if they will, I honestly doubt it until they consolidate their gains in eastern Ukraine, I believe that was their goal, but I'm just guessing and so is everyone else, but it makes sense, they want a land corridor to Crimea and a Russian buffer they control. Once they establish that I believe they will be open to a real cease fire. Keep in mind when they do a significant part of the Ukrainian army is going to be destroyed.

I don't believe they actually want to rule over western Ukraine and seemed to have gone out of their way not to destroy it in the early days. I don't think they have really tried to take the capital seriously yet nor do I believe they want it, in fact it may be feint to distract attention for what they really want which is the east. They simply cannot occupy Ukraine as a whole long term, so they may be going for splitting it up and keeping the parts they need/feel they can control. If this is in fact the strategy Ukraine may be falling into a trap by their current actions.

I know people want to think the Russians are stupid/incapable/idiots/etc. but I seriously doubt it at the leadership level, the offensive in the west/convoy/conscripts has something odd/not right about it, it's almost like a distraction, make no mistake I do believe Russian leadership will sacrifice their own soldiers in order to meet their objectives.

The Russian leadership seems to want this fight and the fact that they are not fighting back on the propaganda front seems odd/fishy, if you look at social media it's all Ukraine winning and routing the Russians, it's almost like they want Ukraine to think it's winning. However, if you take a step back and look at that 40 mile convoy or whatever miles it is now, that doesn't square up with Ukraine routing the Russians, if that was the case that convoy would be getting shot to pieces from the air/sides/etc.

Something fishy not right about this whole mess.

 

[BizyDad]

Russia attacks Ukraine nuclear plant as invasion advances

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces shelled Europe’s largest nuclear plant early Friday, sparking a fire as they pressed their attack on a crucial energy-producing Ukrainian city and gained ground in their bid to cut off the country from the sea.

apnews.com

Someone seems determined to prove that war is hell.

 

[BizyDad]

Russia attacks Ukraine nuclear plant as invasion advances

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces shelled Europe’s largest nuclear plant early Friday, sparking a fire as they pressed their attack on a crucial energy-producing Ukrainian city and gained ground in their bid to cut off the country from the sea.

apnews.com

Someone seems determined to prove that war is hell.

7 minutes and a single Google search using the word nuclear and the internet has presented me with:



Too soon Fukushima. Way too soon. Read the room.

On a business note, this is why I hate programmatic advertising. I will forever link a shelling of a nuclear reaction with Fukushima. And now, so will you.

Talk about unintended consequences.

I'm so glad they tried to update Fukushima in my mind.

 

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[MTF]

Russia attacks Ukraine nuclear plant as invasion advances

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces shelled Europe’s largest nuclear plant early Friday, sparking a fire as they pressed their attack on a crucial energy-producing Ukrainian city and gained ground in their bid to cut off the country from the sea.

apnews.com

Someone seems determined to prove that war is hell.

This has got to be one of the most idiotic things ever done since the Chernobyl disaster. Whoever gave these orders is completely F*cked in the head.

 

[Simon Angel]

Hello Africa.

View: https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno

 

[MattR82]

Hello Africa.

View: https://youtu.be/dxJHecyYBno

This looks like a bad video game put together by a youtuber looking for views.

 

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[Xeon]

WTF Putin! Why are you bombing the nuclear plant! If you want war, go all in to wipe the military targets, capture Zelensky if you have to and end this already! Let people get on with their lives!

 

[Black_Dragon43]

Bro, you wanted to bomb Moscow. You deserved some push back.

You're entitled to your opinions, and I agree with some of the stuff you've said, but you have launched some doozies. Please don't play the victim if you've been dishing it out.

Saying things like "I don't mean calling you extremely childish as an insult" qualifies as dishing it out. So does calling people cowards.

These are not things that are part of civil discourse.

Well, dear Sir (as Indians would say), you are wrong.

I never called him a coward.

And I only called him childish at the very end, because quite honestly that's the only thing that can explain the inability to have a dialogue that he displays.

Compare this with:

lunatic

promoting nuclear war

brain washed to the point of no return

You are a propaganda machine on this thread with one post after another telling us what you think we think. Lay off the CNN and Fox.

off-hand couch heroes posts.

What would this self proclaimed "hero" and "tough guy negotiator" really do if Putin moved past Ukraine and into Romania? Fly out to the nearest safe country to continue to spew off more of his propaganda?

All addressed specifically to me.

Do you get the picture son?

I'm not the one attacking him, I haven't put him on ignore, I literarily have no issue at all with him.

As for responding to his question that "that's a stupid question" that was the answer he deserved - he didn't ask the question in good faith or to further the discussion of the thread, he asked it to score points. It literarily doesn't matter whether I have children, or whether I would act as we were discussing (because maybe I have no balls etc.). What is right or wrong has nothing to do with whether I'd have the emotional strength & mastery required to act in that manner. I laid down a principle - no negotiation with terrorists. We were discussing the principle, not whether Black Dragon's balls are big enough to act in accordance with it.

 

[Simon Angel]

This looks like a bad video game put together by a youtuber looking for views.

Nah, it's real footage uploaded by a time traveler.

 

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[Black_Dragon43]

WTF Putin! Why are you bombing the nuclear plant! If you want war, go all in to wipe the military targets, capture Zelensky if you have to and end this already! Let people get on with their lives!

If you think Putin cares about human life… you’re very very mistaken. This is the same guy who has brutally murdered his opponents (and some say also his friends) once in power and elbowed his way to the top.

Personally selected by Anatoly Sobchak then mayor of St Petersburg because no one was willing to do the dirty work that Putin was willing to do (coordinate with gangsters, give contracts worth millions and PILLAGE the russian people while filling up their pockets - including giving contracts to secure food during those shortages, food which never arrived). Then Putin staged a “heart attack” for Anatoly to help him escape corruption charged and flee to Paris after the latter lost re-election. Then Putin caught the attention of the Yeltsin regime and the oligarchs, because of his ruthlessness and willingness to do whatever it takes. They wanted protection and Putin wanted power. The perfect match.

Putin may, according to some sources including FSB defector Litvinenko (whom Putin murdered in the UK through polonium poisoning) have ordered, staged or allowed to happen the Russian apartment bombings to give a reason for brutally attacking and subduing the Chechens (Russian apartment bombings - Wikipedia ). Killing his own people to advance his agenda.

Then Putin used that as justification to literarily kill Chechens indiscriminately and subdue them.

After Yeltsin surrendered the power peacefully to Putin in exchange for protection and getting to keep the mullah they had stolen, there are rumors that Putin may have been behind the killing of his mentor and the man who brought him in to politics, the aforementioned Anatoly Sobchak. After sending the latter to Kaliningrad to campaign on his behalf, Anatoly died of “heart attack” in a hotel while his two bodyguards had to be treated for mild poisoning symptoms.

His widow Narusova ran her own investigation of her husband’s death and says that the details are kept hidden somewhere safe, away from Russia.

So this is who Putin is - a monster with no regard for anyone apart from himself. If you think you can trust such a man with anything, you’re wrong. You cannot count on Putin for anything.

 

[basedzoomer]

Good reason to rely on companies from your own country instead of foreign ones.

 

[Silverfox148]

Some second order effects that are just starting, once again once wars start, no one really knows where they will end up, the escalation dynamic is uncontrollable. The biggest losers here are not Russia or USA but rather Europe as a whole, with Ukraine being the biggest loser as it is now in the process of being carved up.

China:
- By far the biggest winner in all this, as now alternatives to the U.S dollar hegemony are being implemented as we speak by Russia. China will not have to suffer the pain the Russian state is now going to suffer, yet will benefit for the alternatives that will emerge.
- China also gets intel/behavior patterns of the west on how it will respond to conflict and can tailor their strategy appropriately.
- The world is no longer unipolar, other countries are watching and see the U.S was unwilling to step into the fight, alliances/trade will shift.

Russia:
- Martial law will most likely have to be declared, as imports stop and the war heats up I expect the population will begin to get restless.
- Russia will be forced to move away completely at this point from the dollar system, this will cause short term to medium term pain but will also free Russia to act unilaterally in other areas such as Syria, Venezuela,Europe, Nuclear Weapons, etc.
- Russia will have to focus on feeding it's population, expect limits on NatGas/Energy/Fertilizer exports if this heats up any further.

USA:
- Short to medium term pain on energy prices.
- Alternate dollar systems for trade are going to sprout out and be used this is going to be a huge challenge for U.S hegemony, as the dollar was a very effective tool for controlling other countries, even more so than the U.S military. This/ era is now over.
- U.S Hegemony is now over, rightly or wrongly , this will have long term effects on the population.
- The U.S is already rushing the Iran deal to complete as very real alternatives to the dollar are going to be coming online which will leave the U.S only with the military card, you can already see the effects.

Europe:
- By far the biggest loser in all this, the European continent is now entering a state of insecurity.
- They are going to have a Syria basically in Eastern Europe, with proxy conflicts spreading all over the place.
- The protection they have enjoyed as a part of U.S hegemony is now over. They are acting in unison now but it's short term. Pretty soon (months) they will have to start making real decisions of their trade with Russia and China and wether they will be complete vassals to a U.S which is unwilling to act military against nuclear powers.

More to come .....

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

Just finished watching another video by the German market observer that I follow.

He is in the process of collecting material for a more in-depth video, but as a teaser he said he worries that Russia is currently toying with the mouse and his goal is getting the western citizens to demand that NATO takes a more active role in the conflict from their governments.

Since the conflict between NATO and Russia around the Ukraine has been written about and predicted decades ago, it is naive to assume that Putin stumbled into this mess and was just not prepared very well.

What is his win condition? What is happening right now seems to make no sense for Russia at all - there is no obvious economical payoff and his prestige among the russian population can't be it. The only way for him to win is to drive up the costs for the west so much that we are in a position where we have to negotiate.

I think when we look at households that can't afford heating oil now and price increases across the board that are painful, we might get an idea of what Putin's plan is. The west was hoping that Putin would show off and get this over with in two days, then they could let the hammer fall on Russia.
But what if this takes a lot longer and there is no decisive action from NATO? Things just get worse and worse in the west and people get impatient?

He even mentioned that the west will be very careful not to take the bait, but based on the history lessons that Putin broadcasted, that is why we might actually see Russia go for aggressions against any country that has "provoked" them after 1997 - even Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, something that I was not expecting to hear from him (he is usually pretty conservative with his evaluations).

Makes me wonder what kind of role that would leave for China.

 

[DayIFly]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yl3TIhJ2Hs&ab_channel=CNN

For everyone who doesn't know who this guy is, here's an article from telegraph.co.uk from 2004.
https://archive.ph/6YuFm (archived, the live version is behind a paywall)

I recommend reading it from top to bottom. Let's put it this way, you would have needed certain very specific views on "morality" and "ethics" to be able to become an oligarch in the 90s.

 

[Silverfox148]

Just finished watching another video by the German market observer that I follow.

He is in the process of collecting material for a more in-depth video, but as a teaser he said he worries that Russia is currently toying with the mouse and his goal is getting the western citizens to demand that NATO takes a more active role in the conflict from their governments.

Since the conflict between NATO and Russia around the Ukraine has been written about and predicted decades ago, it is naive to assume that Putin stumbled into this mess and was just not prepared very well.

What is his win condition? What is happening right now seems to make no sense for Russia at all - there is no obvious economical payoff and his prestige among the russian population can't be it. The only way for him to win is to drive up the costs for the west so much that we are in a position where we have to negotiate.

I think when we look at households that can't afford heating oil now and price increases across the board that are painful, we might get an idea of what Putin's plan is. The west was hoping that Putin would show off and get this over with in two days, then they could let the hammer fall on Russia.
But what if this takes a lot longer and there is no decisive action from NATO? Things just get worse and worse in the west and people get impatient?

He even mentioned that the west will be very careful not to take the bait, but based on the history lessons that Putin broadcasted, that is why we might actually see Russia go for aggressions against any country that has "provoked" them after 1997 - even Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, something that I was not expecting to hear from him (he is usually pretty conservative with his evaluations).

Makes me wonder what kind of role that would leave for China.

View attachment 42417

Good analysis, the Russian leadership seems to have expected all the moves so far, they have pretty much faced down nuclear financial war from the West and are reacting very little which is not what was expected.

I honestly believe as I stated in an earlier analysis that he is hoping to drag NATO/West into the Ukraine mess once Russia officially pulls out of the Western parts of Ukraine into a Syria like situation. Such an action would split apart the Europeans as it would be a slow bleed, Putin has no intention of holding Ukraine together, the only ones wanting that so far is NATO/West.

NATO/West may be wising up to this fact, Zelensky is doing all he can to drag NATO into the war as happened last night with the nuclear power plant developments, even Biden had to call him I suspect to ask to tone down the rhetoric around the nuclear power plant but that's just speculation. I doubt it was for intel as I suspect the U.S has embedded intel assets in Zelensky's inner circle.

 

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[Marigold]

This has got to be one of the most idiotic things ever done since the Chernobyl disaster. Whoever gave these orders is completely f*cked in the head.

I see that's now being reported as fake news.

 

[Marigold]

- Russia will have to focus on feeding it's population, expect limits on NatGas/Energy/Fertilizer exports if this heats up any further.



More to come .....

Doesn't the Ukraine and Russia export 30% of the world's fertiliser and wheat? This is going to be a serious problem.

China already hoarded a lot of wheat. It's likely been preparing for this.