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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

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Tossek

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VIX is currently down over 7%, and I'm not smart enough to know if this is a fake recovery or not.....(sigh) !!
Isn't it odd? At least 3 millions lost their jobs and it seems like stocks are up because the hope is that they are fed (pun intended) with money even more. It is sad that real economy and the stock market are sometimes so uncorrelated. I cannot believe that this is the level stocks priced in the near or mid range future.

Or, the bank's economic models are running wild and computer trading is lose because they cannot handle such heavy impacts and believe they are some kind of false negatives :-D
 

NovaAria

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It honestly feels unreal how disconnected from reality the stock market seems, these days.

Stocks are up and everything seems like its recovering when you look at the green numbers, but then you hear about people refusing to pay rent and landlords about to start doing their rounds with a gun in hand.
 

LightningHelix

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It honestly feels unreal how disconnected from reality the stock market seems, these days.

Stocks are up and everything seems like its recovering when you look at the green numbers, but then you hear about people refusing to pay rent and landlords about to start doing their rounds with a gun in hand.
Probably a blip in the market, due to confirmation of the 4T dollars about to get injected. I'm not entirely sure what to make of it, but I guess the idea that business won't go belly-up, because the government will save them encourgaes people to invest.

Expect some foreclosures soon and a drop in housing market, because i don't think housing is going to be excused during this time.
 

biggeemac

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Probably a blip in the market, due to confirmation of the 4T dollars about to get injected. I'm not entirely sure what to make of it, but I guess the idea that business won't go belly-up, because the government will save them encourgaes people to invest.

Expect some foreclosures soon and a drop in housing market, because i don't think housing is going to be excused during this time.
I hope you're right. I have cash.
 

socaldude

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Unemployment claims for the last 50 years. I know this is just one variable of many but i think its an important one because its close to the human element.

I dont blame trump for wanting to reopen the economy as he obviously has a duty. Im guessing nothing will get back to normal until mid summer or if we hit peak infection but its ultimately up to the governors to reopen the local economies.

We can go either way but we are obviously at a heightened risk of a financial collapse.:wideyed:
 
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JScott

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It honestly feels unreal how disconnected from reality the stock market seems, these days.

Stocks are up and everything seems like its recovering when you look at the green numbers, but then you hear about people refusing to pay rent and landlords about to start doing their rounds with a gun in hand.
Keep in mind that any public information is going to be built into the stock market pricing within minutes. And all the information that's coming out -- unemployment numbers, people not paying rent, etc. -- is already expected and baked into the market.

Basically, the rise in the market today was a signal that the unemployment number wasn't than expected...
 

Silverfox148

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The stock market as thought of in a traditional sense is long dead, with stock buybacks, algos, confirmed government insider trading based on Covid-19 briefings, etc.
Juicing it up via trillions in stimulus, etc.

It cannot be thought as nothing more than a rigged game at this point, play but it's rigged.
I think we will see some major positive changes in the economy long term over this, people waking up the real value of their life and therefore time.
 

Vas87

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Won't this stimulus package just boost business profits slightly, but not increase spending by the consumers? So basically prolong the recession? Or am I just making shit up.
 
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JScott

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Won't this stimulus package just boost business profits slightly, but not increase spending by the consumers? So basically prolong the recession? Or am I just making shit up.
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that this stimulus package won't do much besides keep the economy (and the people within it) from going under. This won't be enough for businesses to generate profits; hopefully it will be enough for them not to go under.

As for the recession, it hasn't even been officially declared. And there's no telling whether the economy will come roaring back or will take a nose-dive (or somewhere in between) after all this is done.

I believe it will boil down to two things:

1. How long the lock down lasts; and
2. How much $$$ the government is willing to inject into the economy.

If we hit May 1, and we're still in lock down, that's when I would start to worry about longer-term impacts to the economy.
 

valuecreator

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Well, how long the lockdown lasts depends on how long the government wants it to go on, and I'm pretty sure they're willing to keep throwing money at the economy until the cow's come home.
 

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Yoda

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If we hit May 1, and we're still in lock down, that's when I would start to worry about longer-term impacts to the economy.
I doubt we could avoid longer-term impacts given current circumstances. A lockdown through April is just going to heighten them. We're already past short-term effects.
 

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