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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

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Rivoli

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Rivoli

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OMG stop with the strawman bullshit.

You got shut down because you said the same thing TEN TIMES. Just like your post above, you posted it ONCE, then you posted it again. WORD FOR WORD.

We don't need to read your opinion posted 20 times on 20 different threads, some started by you.

You are welcome to post your opinion, but I don't need to read the same version of it (with different syntax) every 3 posts.
It’s not a strawman. I wasn’t spamming. I was responding to peoples posts and providing sources.

It’s not my fault that thread turned into a group think where everyone enforces the same thinking so it seemed like all my replies were the same.


I should be unbanned
 

MJ DeMarco

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I should be unbanned
I think you are in a day or two. And if you post the same post 10X, just in a different format, you will be banned again.
 

MJ DeMarco

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@Rivoli - BTW, your thread ban on the main thread expires Mar 25, 2020 at 9:16 AM -- at which point you can comment again.
 

Rivoli

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@Rivoli - BTW, your thread ban on the main thread expires Mar 25, 2020 at 9:16 AM -- at which point you can comment again.
Not really fair. You have to admit I got banned for political reasons, for disagreeing with people when now the whole thread @Kak @Vigilante, Donald trump, the WSJ and more and more people are agreeing with the positions I held while everyone was attacking me.

It would be more fair if I was unbanned now. I wasn’t spamming or any TOS violation.
 

biophase

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@biophase Give me a beak dude. Once I’m unbanned I’ll reply to every post you made there making fun of me for not being ok with a complete shut down of the entire economy - layoffs be damned.

Even MJ made fun of me saying I’m ok with killing “Millions of people” for a “few GDP points”

Well Morgan Stanley is saying we’re going to have a 24% drop in GDP for Q2, and I bet we’re going to see suicides, starvation and other ailments of despair skyrocket in the next couple weeks.

Plus all the hidden costs of a recession..families broken apart because both parents working low paying jobs after getting laid off, kids neglected, malnutrition, poor education, no retirement.

All because anyone who had any disagreement like myself got shot down in the panic of overreaction.
Oh, I am fully committed to the making fun of you for not being ok with a complete shut down of the entire economy! That's not what I was questioning. You said that we all changed our tunes and included tagging me, once Trump said WE CANT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE SICKNESS. I have never changed my tune on that. So that's I was asking.

Dude this is what you said, "Seeing everyone in the other thread quoting Donald Trumpso “WE CANT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE SICKNESS” tweet and talking about how their coming around to the idea maybe we shouldnt be destroying the economy to contain this is making me want to scoop my eyes out.

Half of the people (@Kak @lowtek @GIlman @biophase @Vigilante ) literally called me a sociopath, but the second Donald trump and the wall street journal says it suddenly they are open to it. Some people are such conformist."

So I'll ask again, I don't see anywhere where I've said that I'm open to it???
 

nitrousflame

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Rivoli

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Oh, I am fully committed to the making fun of you for not being ok with a complete shut down of the entire economy! That's not what I was questioning. You said that we all changed our tunes and included tagging me, once Trump said WE CANT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE SICKNESS. I have never changed my tune on that. So that's I was asking.

Dude this is what you said, "Seeing everyone in the other thread quoting Donald Trumpso “WE CANT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE SICKNESS” tweet and talking about how their coming around to the idea maybe we shouldnt be destroying the economy to contain this is making me want to scoop my eyes out.

Half of the people (@Kak @lowtek @GIlman @biophase @Vigilante ) literally called me a sociopath, but the second Donald trump and the wall street journal says it suddenly they are open to it. Some people are such conformist."

So I'll ask again, I don't see anywhere where I've said that I'm open to it???
So you’re still on board on shutting down the economy huh?

You‘ve seen the Fed is projecting 50% gdp drop and 30% unemployment. No problem with that?
 
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JScott

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It's hard to keep up with everything going on lately, but if I understand correctly, the Fed announced today that it plans to do unlimited QE and will even intervene in the corporate bond market! To @JScott and @PizzaOnTheRoof and others pointing out the risks in the bond market, will this latest announcement be enough?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/fed-signals-unlimited-qe-adds-aid-for-companies-municipalities
I think this will help prop us companies that are relying on debt to operate. Downgrades of corporate debt (especially the higher-risk BBB rated debt) would skyrocket borrowing costs, and would basically sink those companies that rely on these types of bonds for financing.

That said, I'm not sure how big the pool of companies that meet this requirement is -- in other words, I don't know if that's 5% of publicly traded companies or 50% of publicly traded companies. And that would make a big difference.

Adding this to my list of stuff to research... :)
 

Kak

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Half of the people (@Kak @lowtek @GIlman @biophase @Vigilante ) literally called me a sociopath, but the second Donald trump and the wall street journal says it suddenly they are open to it. Some people are such conformist."
Don’t pull me into this. My bullshit meter has been pegged the entire time. I caught shit for dare suggesting that the market could better allocate scarce goods than the government.

Donald Trump has nothing to do with my view points on any of this. I have been a harsh critic of a lot of so-called conservatives. I am consistently anti-collectivist and pro-freedom.
 

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Ing

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A bit top ther was said, etf s should go down.
But can they fo down more than the rest of the stocks?
I thought, etfs depict the top xx shares of a market.
Means that a etf cant be worse than a market. Right?
 

lewj24

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It's hard to keep up with everything going on lately, but if I understand correctly, the Fed announced today that it plans to do unlimited QE and will even intervene in the corporate bond market! To @JScott and @PizzaOnTheRoof and others pointing out the risks in the bond market, will this latest announcement be enough?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/fed-signals-unlimited-qe-adds-aid-for-companies-municipalities
The inflation the Fed creates will do more damage to the economy and destroy more lives than this virus will.

Get out of cash.
 

Kak

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The market disagrees.
Inflationary policy pushes up the price of equities too. We could have Dow 60000 and if we had $25 dollar toothbrushes it wouldn’t mean much.
 
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JScott

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The inflation the Fed creates will do more damage to the economy and destroy more lives than this virus will.

Get out of cash.
There is never going to be inflationary pressure when people can't spend money, so the risk of short-term inflation isn't much of a concern.

And there typically isn't going to be much inflation during a downturn, even if the money supply sees significant expansion.

The risk of inflation comes about once the economy gets back on track and businesses start seeing unfulfilled demand.

Hopefully, the Fed has the balls to do what it takes to contract the money supply before this happens. My guess is that this will slow any recovery, and may even force a recession for the duration of the time that the Fed sells off assets, but it's a necessary evil.

If the Fed doesn't have a plan for reducing the money supply, or if they refuse to carry it out for any reason, inflation becomes a risk. Especially with an extra 40% of GDP out there in the money supply.
 

biophase

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So you’re still on board on shutting down the economy huh?

You‘ve seen the Fed is projecting 50% gdp drop and 30% unemployment. No problem with that?
I'm ok with that. We've seen many recessions. This one may be the worse than others. You can't bring anyone back to life, but the economy will eventually come back.

Would you rather, have your business be saved and lose 3 friends/family... or have your business go under and keep those 3 friends/family? Heck, let's make it just 1 friend or family member.
 

lowtek

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There is never going to be inflationary pressure when people can't spend money, so the risk of short-term inflation isn't much of a concern.

And there typically isn't going to be much inflation during a downturn, even if the money supply sees significant expansion.

The risk of inflation comes about once the economy gets back on track and businesses start seeing unfulfilled demand.

Hopefully, the Fed has the balls to do what it takes to contract the money supply before this happens. My guess is that this will slow any recovery, and may even force a recession for the duration of the time that the Fed sells off assets, but it's a necessary evil.

If the Fed doesn't have a plan for reducing the money supply, or if they refuse to carry it out for any reason, inflation becomes a risk. Especially with an extra 40% of GDP out there in the money supply.
Doesn't your argument assume that the supply of goods is constant, while demand for those goods drops? Aren't we in a situation where the supply of goods is about to drop (at least temporarily, due to the China shutdown)?

While demand for many things is down, demand for everyday goods is as strong as ever. Even to the point where Walmart and other grocer chains are hiring a boatload of workers to fulfill the demand.
 

Rivoli

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I'm ok with that. We've seen many recessions. This one may be the worse than others. You can't bring anyone back to life, but the economy will eventually come back.

Would you rather, have your business be saved and lose 3 friends/family... or have your business go under and keep those 3 friends/family? Heck, let's make it just 1 friend or family member.

I think you’re actually lying, and you just don’t want to admit that you’re wrong.

1. 50% drop in global GDP isn’t a recession. It’s a bigger than the Great Depression.
2. We aren‘t talking about 3 people in your family dying. If the average family is 5, that would be a 60% death rate, we’re talking about a 100 times less than that. Maybe even a thousand times less.
 

LightningHelix

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I think you’re actually lying, and you just don’t want to admit that you’re wrong.

1. 50% drop in global GDP isn’t a recession. It’s a bigger than the Great Depression.
2. We aren‘t talking about 3 people in your family dying. If the average family is 5, that would be a 60% death rate, we’re talking about a 100 times less than that. Maybe even a thousand times less.
Accusing people of lying now? Are you starting to see why you are getting banned.

It's not like people don't see your side. People are more concerned about people that are dying right now. Do you have enough humility to understand their side?
 

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lewj24

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There is never going to be inflationary pressure when people can't spend money, so the risk of short-term inflation isn't much of a concern.

And there typically isn't going to be much inflation during a downturn, even if the money supply sees significant expansion.

The risk of inflation comes about once the economy gets back on track and businesses start seeing unfulfilled demand.
I don't understand. If printing money causes inflation cant inflation happen during a recession or an expansion? The govt can print money anytime.

Hopefully, the Fed has the balls to do what it takes to contract the money supply before this happens
I personally don't think they have the balls to do this until they have no choice. They haven't had the balls to do it yet.
 

Silverfox148

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We are going to see something very interesting in the next few days/weeks, what is the monetary value of a human life? If the virus is as bad as is said by the government/medical community, and all the fear mongering over the past month, then we are going to see a substantial number of deaths if the economy is "opened for business".

Thinking the economy is going back to normal anytime soon is wishful thinking.
 

biophase

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I think you’re actually lying, and you just don’t want to admit that you’re wrong.

1. 50% drop in global GDP isn’t a recession. It’s a bigger than the Great Depression.
2. We aren‘t talking about 3 people in your family dying. If the average family is 5, that would be a 60% death rate, we’re talking about a 100 times less than that. Maybe even a thousand times less.
Why would I lie about this? Why would I care about a depression over my friends and family living?

Honestly, are you really that scared of losing your current lifestyle and your skills? I can survive. I have the confidence and skills to start over.

Do you only have 5 friends and family in your whole circle? If so that would be really sad.
 

ReeZ

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I don't understand. If printing money causes inflation cant inflation happen during a recession or an expansion? The govt can print money anytime.
While there is "inflation happening" it can't be observed.

Germany's currency after WW1. 31471
Which all makes sense doesn't it?
However, what we're not seeing on this chart is how much was printed.

(This chart was taken from Mike Maloney's "Money Secrets #7")

During 1914-18 there was a war, so people weren't spending the money they received. After the war, we're seeing that first spike - When people spend the money.
So unless people are buying things with that currency, inflation won't happen - No matter how much the fed or any other central bank is printing. If people are saving up all that money, it'll likely cause a spike later to keep up with the new currency in circulation when the people decide on spending the money.

Edit:
That's not the only thing that counts. As the USD is the currency that every other currency is "tied to". The international supply/demand of USD also counts, and of course, more factors that also come into play.
 
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Budgeoly

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If I May.
I would like to say Thank you to everyone who has contributed to this thread. Here is why.
I no nothing about world economics, markets, bonds etc.
My first clear instruction about entreprenrship came from unscripted in the last four months.
I have no clear instruction on how to proceed financially during these critical times hard to deal with so I turned to this forum for insight. I see now that the uncertainty seems to exist among the financially astute as well so I am comforted having read everyone's remarks.
Thank you ALL for being there when I needed you.
3.MQC2SS 1. EARTH 2. YAWWAY
 

tpf

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If anyone's interested the Financial Times have ungated some of their articles to do with Corona virus and the world economy. There's some interesting data about the Chinese economy, you have to scroll down past all the Corona virus charts:


Might be worth keeping an eye on to see what happens economically as they alter their lockdown policies and try to get everyone back to work.
 

MJ DeMarco

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fyi: Today's nice rebound has not, thus far, been accompanied by a big VIX reversion. I tend to interpret that to mean the bounce isn't real, or isn't to be trusted.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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fyi: Today's nice rebound has not, thus far, been accompanied by a big VIX reversion. I tend to interpret that to mean the bounce isn't real, or isn't to be trusted.
Are quick recoveries not just as volatile or at least mostly volitile as quick downturns?
 

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