The Entrepreneur Forum | Startups | Entrepreneurship | Starting a Business | Motivation | Success

NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

Remove ads while supporting the Unscripted philosophy...become an INSIDER.

lewj24

Gold Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
May 12, 2016
419
1,457
423
24
St. Louis, MO
On CNBC a restaurant guy said 1 million people lost their jobs in NYC in the food business.
Because the gov't shut them down? The virus is honestly not a big deal. It's the panic of the crowds that is the big deal.
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

MJ DeMarco

Administrator
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 23, 2007
30,014
107,096
3,751
Fountain Hills, AZ
You will get in trouble for saying that on this board.

@JScott
If you continue to harass users in this forum (or bait), in this case @JScott, you will be removed, thread by thread.

It's clear you two don't see eye-to-eye. Why don't you leave it at that, otherwise I will just have to force the issue on you. My guess is he has you on ignore anyway.

Thank you.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

1,000 Miles To Go
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Jul 30, 2018
943
2,045
552
Texas
So guys, it seems everyone agrees that this outbreak will be the catalyst to a major recession/bubble burst.

So what’s the next bubble to pop, and how can we take advantage of it?

I think the major possibilities are:
  1. Corporate debt/bonds
  2. Consumer debt (credit card, auto, mortgage)
  3. Healthcare/insurance
  4. ETFs
Thoughts?

Also, thoughts on a double dip crash?

I can see the market rebounding as the virus subsides, but then the economic impacts of layoffs, oil war, massive stimulus, dollar deflation, and the above mentioned items really hit us.
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
JScott

JScott

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Aug 24, 2007
4,421
9,153
2,201
So guys, it seems everyone agrees that this outbreak will be the catalyst to a major recession/bubble burst.

So what’s the next bubble to pop, and how can we take advantage of it?

I think the major possibilities are:
  1. Corporate debt/bonds
  2. Consumer debt (credit card, auto, mortgage)
  3. Healthcare/insurance
  4. ETFs
Thoughts?
Doesn't matter which bubble pops, the way to take advantage is the same: Buy low.

Whether it's real estate, businesses, assets, stock, or whatever it is you understand well, a general recession is a great time to buy low...
 

MJ DeMarco

Administrator
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 23, 2007
30,014
107,096
3,751
Fountain Hills, AZ
The futures market opens here in a few hours. I expect another shit show as the markets process the weekend's escalations with no indications of any end, much less a slowing.

SPY 215 is the next technical mark, in the aftermarket on Friday we were at around SPY 227. I expect we hit that within the first hour of open.
 

MHP368

Machine Learning Behavioral Driven Lead Gen
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 17, 2016
668
1,032
376
33
Sahuarita AZ
Thoughts?
Pension crisis? States declaring emergencies means they can shuffle money from normal stuff to triage the healthcare system , add the market dip and a lot of slowlaners who put in the 20 years expecting steady paydays might be in for a rude aakening shortly.
 

biggeemac

Gold Contributor
Speedway Pass
Jun 25, 2011
764
1,000
390
44
Is anyone anticipating a strong bounce back, or Will it be more likely thatThere is a substantial period of time to accumulate?
 

MJ DeMarco

Administrator
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 23, 2007
30,014
107,096
3,751
Fountain Hills, AZ
The futures market opens here in a few hours. I expect another shit show as the markets process the weekend's escalations with no indications of any end, much less a slowing.

SPY 215 is the next technical mark, in the aftermarket on Friday we were at around SPY 227. I expect we hit that within the first hour of open.
As I expected, straight down to the 217 level and then lock limited.
 
OP
OP
JScott

JScott

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Aug 24, 2007
4,421
9,153
2,201
Is anyone anticipating a strong bounce back, or Will it be more likely thatThere is a substantial period of time to accumulate?
I don't think anyone really knows, but here are my thoughts on that...

Even if 95% of businesses miraculously navigate through this crisis and don't have to shut down permanently, that still leaves 5% that have employees that will have to find new jobs. That 5% can easily increase unemployment from the previous 3.5% to 8% or more.

And that assumes that the 95% of businesses ramp up quickly and don't have to lay off some employees long-term or reduce hours/wages.

Plus, we have to consider how this whole things is going to impact consumers' spending habits. People may realize that saving is important and that there are things they can live without. That reduces demand, and leads to a slower recovery.

Also, consider that corporate debt is at an all time high. I can imagine a lot of businesses succumbing to that, even if they were otherwise well positioned to get back to things.

If this things goes on for more than another month or two, I have a feeling we're going to see a long drawn-out recovery. Think Nike swoosh type pattern for the downturn and recovery...

31413
 

mikeyjd

Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Dec 10, 2015
25
31
26
33
Michigan
As I expected, straight down to the 217 level and then lock limited.
I appreciate you weighing for those of us not currently participating in the markets. It's great to have a pulse on things without having to study the inundating amount of info coming from all the news outlets.
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

csalvato

Platinum Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,649
4,798
1,146
35
Rocky Mountain West
Because the gov't shut them down? The virus is honestly not a big deal. It's the panic of the crowds that is the big deal.
This virus is a big deal. They are piling their dead in churches like it’s wartime in Italy and turning away people over 60 so they can save the young.
 

csalvato

Platinum Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,649
4,798
1,146
35
Rocky Mountain West
I don't think anyone really knows, but here are my thoughts on that...

Even if 95% of businesses miraculously navigate through this crisis and don't have to shut down permanently, that still leaves 5% that have employees that will have to find new jobs. That 5% can easily increase unemployment from the previous 3.5% to 8% or more.

And that assumes that the 95% of businesses ramp up quickly and don't have to lay off some employees long-term or reduce hours/wages.

Plus, we have to consider how this whole things is going to impact consumers' spending habits. People may realize that saving is important and that there are things they can live without. That reduces demand, and leads to a slower recovery.

Also, consider that corporate debt is at an all time high. I can imagine a lot of businesses succumbing to that, even if they were otherwise well positioned to get back to things.

If this things goes on for more than another month or two, I have a feeling we're going to see a long drawn-out recovery. Think Nike swoosh type pattern for the downturn and recovery...

View attachment 31413
To dog pile on this point for a sec, you also need to consider that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

That means most people in the US right now literally can't afford to go a month (2 paychecks) without their check. Most are getting through the day to day essentials by:

1. Renting
2. Mortgaging
3. Financing everything else.

Remember, people are financing everything from $40 jackets from Anthropologie, $1000 iPhones , $2500 laptops, $15k in furniture and $500k houses.

If you have even 50% of America defaulting on a good portion of this debt they simply won't be able to afford to consume moving forward. Debtors won't be able to finance them, either, because their credit will shoot through the floor as they default.

I'd expect a lot of banks to be losing money after this, and the real estate market to lag 6-18 months from now as people struggle to catch up on their bills but simply cannot.

It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets any better, IMO. Nike swoosh makes sense to me @JScott
 

csalvato

Platinum Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,649
4,798
1,146
35
Rocky Mountain West
Delta Airlines is a great buy right now...
Maybe. Maybe not. It's very hard to tell right now.

Back in 2008, a lot of banks dropped in price. Some were able to stick through it. Others weren't and wound up getting acquired at firesale prices by other banks as the market consolidated.

Picking airline stocks is the game of picking winners and losers.

Which can sustain a short term zero-demand and long-term drop in demand? I honestly don't know. That would require a good deal of research, and a bit of luck, I'd think.
 

Mckenzie

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 25, 2013
123
159
148
So guys, it seems everyone agrees that this outbreak will be the catalyst to a major recession/bubble burst.

So what’s the next bubble to pop, and how can we take advantage of it?

I think the major possibilities are:
  1. Corporate debt/bonds
  2. Consumer debt (credit card, auto, mortgage)
  3. Healthcare/insurance
  4. ETFs
Thoughts?

Also, thoughts on a double dip crash?

I can see the market rebounding as the virus subsides, but then the economic impacts of layoffs, oil war, massive stimulus, dollar deflation, and the above mentioned items really hit us.
could you please explain to me why ETFs ...the next bubble burst? I’m Watching some of those ETFs and I really want to know why you think so. Thanks
 

Walter Hay

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Speedway Pass
Sep 13, 2014
2,534
10,332
2,453
World citizen
There is little discussion about the effect of Covid19 on manufacturing businesses, but I have seen some big manufacturers shut down.

Although there are huge numbers now working from home, manufacturing will have to start up again at some stage.

@Andy Black showed the bright idea pursued by The Flying Elephant company whose work from home desks are selling very well.

Someone has to make those desks, and what's more, someone has to make the materials that are used to make the desks.

Emergency hospitals are being constructed. Someone has to make the aluminum extrusions and the paneling being used to enclose spaces.

I could go on.

So, will there be any serious move to re-shore manufacturing that actually moved to China, or even re-establish manufacturing businesses that simply became defunct because competitors put them out of business by buying cheap stuff from China?

In my many visits to China I saw, instead of cheap labor at work in factories, robots and automated production lines humming along.

My opinion has long been that many manufacturers shut down in the USA and other Western countries just because buying from China was such an easy option, rather than the owners having to ensure cost - effective functioning of their manufacturing facilities.

Manufacturing quickly bounced back and became even stronger after previous serious crises, most notably WW2, but attitudes have changed, and addiction to cheap imports will probably persist.

Walter
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

1,000 Miles To Go
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Jul 30, 2018
943
2,045
552
Texas

Interesting article from 2017 that pension funds will be the next to blow up 2008 style.

According to Dave Kranzler, if the stock market were to fall by 10 percent or more and stay there for a number of months, that "would cause every single public pension fund to blow up."
$1.9 Trillion in underfunded pensions. Guess where these funds invest their money?...

... commercial/mall REITS.

could you please explain to me why ETFs ...the next bubble burst? I’m Watching some of those ETFs and I really want to know why you think so. Thanks
Not necessarily ETFs themselves, but as the saying goes “A rising tide lifts all boats.”

Companies that have no reason to be valued as high as they are will blow up when people panic sell out of these ETFs.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

1,000 Miles To Go
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Jul 30, 2018
943
2,045
552
Texas
Last one I promise!


Basically, everyone is scrambling for dollars right now. US treasuries will be dumped in favor of cash. Consider the worlds largest consumer being shutdown for weeks if not months. Countries depend on trade for dollars. Only other way to get them is selling out of US treasuries.

The Fed will be auctioning 7 and 10 year treasuries on April 8-9.

The thesis: Nobody/very little buyers for these bonds will cause them to implode. Others know this and we’ll see a large sell off of treasuries before the auctions.

TL;DR: Short 7/10 year treasuries

@JScott @MJ DeMarco I’d love to hear y’all’s opinions on this piece.
 
Last edited:

Andy Black

Figuring it out as I go along!
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
May 20, 2014
9,740
40,303
4,306
Ireland
There is little discussion about the effect of Covid19 on manufacturing businesses, but I have seen some big manufacturers shut down.

Although there are huge numbers now working from home, manufacturing will have to start up again at some stage.

@Andy Black showed the bright idea pursued by The Flying Elephant company whose work from home desks are selling very well.

Someone has to make those desks, and what's more, someone has to make the materials that are used to make the desks.

Emergency hospitals are being constructed. Someone has to make the aluminum extrusions and the paneling being used to enclose spaces.

I could go on.

So, will there be any serious move to re-shore manufacturing that actually moved to China, or even re-establish manufacturing businesses that simply became defunct because competitors put them out of business by buying cheap stuff from China?

In my many visits to China I saw, instead of cheap labor at work in factories, robots and automated production lines humming along.

My opinion has long been that many manufacturers shut down in the USA and other Western countries just because buying from China was such an easy option, rather than the owners having to ensure cost - effective functioning of their manufacturing facilities.

Manufacturing quickly bounced back and became even stronger after previous serious crises, most notably WW2, but attitudes have changed, and addiction to cheap imports will probably persist.

Walter
In case you read this and we’re confused by flying elephants:
> Business Ideas for the (emerging) stay-at-home Economy?
 
OP
OP
JScott

JScott

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Aug 24, 2007
4,421
9,153
2,201
Guggenheim Investments published a great paper over the weekend discussing the potential impact of the current crisis in terms of financial markets and future trends that will impact the markets.


Because its written with a good bit of financial jargon that I imagine a lot of people won't feel like wading through, I'm going to summarize their take here.

- First, it's worth noting that around the world, we've seen a peak in virus cases about 30 days post-lockdown in nearly every country that has locked-down. That means that if you consider our lockdown as having started last week, we're probably still 3 weeks out from hitting a peak in COVID-19 cases in the US.

- Assuming that's the case, we're probably on full or partial lockdown at least through April, meaning that unemployment will likely peak when April's numbers are released. I wouldn't be surprised to the number at 20% or more, with 25-35M Americans out of work (barring the government taking some drastic action).

- With that in mind, my take is that there is tremendous risk to about three-quarters of Americans who have less than $500 in savings, and who are mired in historic debt across the board -- college loans, credit cards, auto loans, mortgages, etc.

- Keep in mind that the average American family is taking home (post-tax) between $2-3K per month. The government is currently talking about $1000-1200 per month in direct-to-consumer stimulus. At those numbers, it's likely that many Americans will start to default on their debt and a snowball effect could easily ensue, leading to defaults, bankruptcies and foreclosures, the likes of which we haven't seen in 100 years. Of course, government action might stem this risk, but it's not yet clear if that will be the case or not.

To keep the economy afloat, targeted industry bailouts are probably not the best solution. It doesn't get the liquidity where it's needed, when it's needed, fast enough. A better solution is pools of liquidity through the Fed like we're seeing with repo markets. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear this is the direction the Senate is heading with the current bill.

- In terms of how much stimulus and liquidity is needed, we can look to 2008, when the Fed balance sheet hit $4.5T. In this case, we could be looking at more than that (plus the Fed balance sheet never got back to $0), so we could be looking at a total balance sheet expansion of up to $10T or more. This is about 50% of our GDP. The article points out that Japan is currently operating their central bank balance sheet at 105% of their GDP, so we shouldn’t be concerned about 50%. But, I fundamentally disagree. I’m not sure Japan is the model we’re trying to achieve here. And if the lockdown lasts longer than expected, and the worldwide implication is larger than expected, that $10T could be low.

- In terms of market reaction, not that the TARP stimulus was passed back in October 2008. The market continued to drop for the next six months, down another 30% from TARP to bottom. If we see something similar here, even if stimulus is passed this week, it could be Q3 or Q4 before we hit market bottom.

- Right now, there isn’t enough demand in the bond markets, and we’re likely looking at about $1T in BBB rated bonds to be downgraded. With $1T in high-yield (junk) bonds currently outstanding, we are likely looking at a total of $2T in high-yield bonds outstanding at some point in the near future. Given that PE firms are currently sitting on about $1T in capital, they are a prime target for acquiring these bonds, and with an unleveraged return in the low teens, a leverage return could be exactly what they’re looking for in terms of yield for their investors.

- (My question is, what happens if PE sinks $1T into junk bonds and gets these returns? Does that change the PE investment landscape for the foreseeable future while firms sit back and collect their paychecks?)

- (And it’s worth pointing out that these high yield bonds are senior to equity positions, so if these companies declare bankruptcy or need to liquidate, the bond holders are reasonable positions, especially if they traded equity positions for their bailouts, which is a possibility.)

- Collateralized assets are currently in a really bad position. They’ve been selling across various ratings at between 70 and 90 cents on the dollar. That’s about 20-30% more than just a couple years back, during the mini-recession of 2015-2016, and about 40% more than some of these collateralizations (like aircraft securitizations) are worth. And a lot of players in this space aren’t professionals – they were investors who were chasing yield and will likely get caught as asset collateralizations crash.

- At the end of the day, we’ll likely see a shift in the economy over the next several years as Americans come to grips with how all this played out. Employers may recognize that working from home is a viable option for a lot more employees, which will have a tremendously negative impact on commercial real estate, especially office. And retail real estate could get hit as well, as companies learn to manage online options for their customers.

- My take is that many companies will also realize that they can reduce work travel, opting instead for video communications. This could impact the travel industry considerably – reducing air travel, hotel bookings and restaurants, especially in metropolitan hubs.
 

biggeemac

Gold Contributor
Speedway Pass
Jun 25, 2011
764
1,000
390
44
Guggenheim Investments published a great paper over the weekend discussing the potential impact of the current crisis in terms of financial markets and future trends that will impact the markets.


Because its written with a good bit of financial jargon that I imagine a lot of people won't feel like wading through, I'm going to summarize their take here.

- First, it's worth noting that around the world, we've seen a peak in virus cases about 30 days post-lockdown in nearly every country that has locked-down. That means that if you consider our lockdown as having started last week, we're probably still 3 weeks out from hitting a peak in COVID-19 cases in the US.

- Assuming that's the case, we're probably on full or partial lockdown at least through April, meaning that unemployment will likely peak when April's numbers are released. I wouldn't be surprised to the number at 20% or more, with 25-35M Americans out of work (barring the government taking some drastic action).

- With that in mind, my take is that there is tremendous risk to about three-quarters of Americans who have less than $500 in savings, and who are mired in historic debt across the board -- college loans, credit cards, auto loans, mortgages, etc.

- Keep in mind that the average American family is taking home (post-tax) between $2-3K per month. The government is currently talking about $1000-1200 per month in direct-to-consumer stimulus. At those numbers, it's likely that many Americans will start to default on their debt and a snowball effect could easily ensue, leading to defaults, bankruptcies and foreclosures, the likes of which we haven't seen in 100 years. Of course, government action might stem this risk, but it's not yet clear if that will be the case or not.

To keep the economy afloat, targeted industry bailouts are probably not the best solution. It doesn't get the liquidity where it's needed, when it's needed, fast enough. A better solution is pools of liquidity through the Fed like we're seeing with repo markets. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear this is the direction the Senate is heading with the current bill.

- In terms of how much stimulus and liquidity is needed, we can look to 2008, when the Fed balance sheet hit $4.5T. In this case, we could be looking at more than that (plus the Fed balance sheet never got back to $0), so we could be looking at a total balance sheet expansion of up to $10T or more. This is about 50% of our GDP. The article points out that Japan is currently operating their central bank balance sheet at 105% of their GDP, so we shouldn’t be concerned about 50%. But, I fundamentally disagree. I’m not sure Japan is the model we’re trying to achieve here. And if the lockdown lasts longer than expected, and the worldwide implication is larger than expected, that $10T could be low.

- In terms of market reaction, not that the TARP stimulus was passed back in October 2008. The market continued to drop for the next six months, down another 30% from TARP to bottom. If we see something similar here, even if stimulus is passed this week, it could be Q3 or Q4 before we hit market bottom.

- Right now, there isn’t enough demand in the bond markets, and we’re likely looking at about $1T in BBB rated bonds to be downgraded. With $1T in high-yield (junk) bonds currently outstanding, we are likely looking at a total of $2T in high-yield bonds outstanding at some point in the near future. Given that PE firms are currently sitting on about $1T in capital, they are a prime target for acquiring these bonds, and with an unleveraged return in the low teens, a leverage return could be exactly what they’re looking for in terms of yield for their investors.

- (My question is, what happens if PE sinks $1T into junk bonds and gets these returns? Does that change the PE investment landscape for the foreseeable future while firms sit back and collect their paychecks?)

- (And it’s worth pointing out that these high yield bonds are senior to equity positions, so if these companies declare bankruptcy or need to liquidate, the bond holders are reasonable positions, especially if they traded equity positions for their bailouts, which is a possibility.)

- Collateralized assets are currently in a really bad position. They’ve been selling across various ratings at between 70 and 90 cents on the dollar. That’s about 20-30% more than just a couple years back, during the mini-recession of 2015-2016, and about 40% more than some of these collateralizations (like aircraft securitizations) are worth. And a lot of players in this space aren’t professionals – they were investors who were chasing yield and will likely get caught as asset collateralizations crash.

- At the end of the day, we’ll likely see a shift in the economy over the next several years as Americans come to grips with how all this played out. Employers may recognize that working from home is a viable option for a lot more employees, which will have a tremendously negative impact on commercial real estate, especially office. And retail real estate could get hit as well, as companies learn to manage online options for their customers.

- My take is that many companies will also realize that they can reduce work travel, opting instead for video communications. This could impact the travel industry considerably – reducing air travel, hotel bookings and restaurants, especially in metropolitan hubs.
I highly respect your input. That being said, I have three mortgages on three properties and plenty of cash in the bank. My mortgages are not currently in danger of default, despite the current events. The cash that I have was intended to build MY house on the third property. I am a little torn now. Should I sit on the cash and perhaps put it somewhere else when America bleeds out, or should I continue my trajectory of building? From your perspective, where do you think the biggest opportunities will be for us small players once we bottom out?

PS You dont have to give me the "I am not responsible if X happens....yadda yadda" speech. I completely understand.
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

Rivoli

Silver Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Jun 4, 2018
349
564
239
Orange County, California
Seeing everyone in the other thread quoting Donald Trumpso “WE CANT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE SICKNESS” tweet and talking about how their coming around to the idea maybe we shouldnt be destroying the economy to contain this is making me want to scoop my eyes out.

I’ve been saying this since day 1.

Half of the people (@Kak @lowtek @GIlman @biophase @Vigilante ) literally called me a sociopath, but the second Donald trump and the wall street journal says it suddenly they are open to it. Some people are such conformist.

I really doubt I’ll hear any apologies.

Wall Street Journal Op-Ed basically saying what I’ve been saying
Opinion | Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

I have a huge heart and my whole personal philosophy is about less suffering for more people is the right decision always, and to me its so clear killing an economy and sending 100 million people into the terror of a Great Depression is Actually going to hurt more than the worst case scenario of the virus.
 

Kid

Silver Contributor
Speedway Pass
Mar 1, 2016
759
630
278
Should I sit on the cash and perhaps put it somewhere else when America bleeds out, or should I continue my trajectory of building? From your perspective, where do you think the biggest opportunities will be for us small players once we bottom out?
Since you are in RE, keep it there. Recession means cheaper houses 'cause less people will be able to afford them.
Real estate is a little bit after stock market (in timing). And market is 'bout 30% down since February.
 

MJ DeMarco

Administrator
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 23, 2007
30,014
107,096
3,751
Fountain Hills, AZ
Interesting chart...



On perhaps some better news, the VIX today is actually lower (with 10 minutes left to the close). I tend to view the VIX as a leading-indicator, a very short view of prevailing sentiment.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kid

biophase

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 25, 2007
6,993
32,359
5,083
Scottsdale, AZ
I’ve been saying this since day 1.

Half of the people (@Kak @lowtek @GIlman @biophase @Vigilante ) literally called me a sociopath, but the second Donald trump and the wall street journal says it suddenly they are open to it. Some people are such conformist.
I don't see anywhere where I've said that I'm open to it???
 

biophase

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 25, 2007
6,993
32,359
5,083
Scottsdale, AZ
I highly respect your input. That being said, I have three mortgages on three properties and plenty of cash in the bank. My mortgages are not currently in danger of default, despite the current events. The cash that I have was intended to build MY house on the third property. I am a little torn now. Should I sit on the cash and perhaps put it somewhere else when America bleeds out, or should I continue my trajectory of building? From your perspective, where do you think the biggest opportunities will be for us small players once we bottom out?
I would sit on the cash and wait and see.
 

Rivoli

Silver Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Jun 4, 2018
349
564
239
Orange County, California
El Erian keeps talking about sudden stops and how everyone on CNBC is too optimistic still about the outcome.

He’s right.

My factory was ground to a complete halt on Friday.

1. Consumers complying with gov orders or fear stop shopping
2. Retailers - even with essential product - shut down.
3. Retailers stop or cancel all orders on Friday AND move payment terms from 30 to 90%
4. We have to stop all production, cancel all orders and also with Payment delays

This is not going to just spike back up. I know this. Relationships are going to be destroyed. Everyone I know who owns a factory, including a guy who employs about 400 people here in California laid 95% of his workforce off.

Rubio‘s bill is too late to stop layoffs like what’s been happening.. People that thinks we can continue like this and have just 20% unemployment are delusional at this point. Even when we pick back up, the environment is going to be changed forever.

The only positive thing I see is we’re going to see the end of globalization.
 

Yoda

Platinum Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Nov 12, 2015
394
2,701
654
Dagobah
The primary reason virtually all angles are guesses is because this is health versus wealth.

People have a human life value, just as much as an economy has a value. Now, you might argue the economy is run by the humans, but that's only partially true; not a zero-sum game.

The reason we're unlikely to have any comparable record of what is going to happen is because a pandemic like this has never spread in a time of technology and trade such as what has gotten us here. 100% new territory is being established right now.

> Here's the point:

While we can save more lives than, say, when the black plague was around (1300's for those wondering), just because we have the communication and jurisdictions doesn't mean we should (or shouldn't); the cost of doing so is much more extraordinary because the value of a working person's hour is so great, so it's an evaluation we've never had before.

When you're dealing with something entirely new, past isn't present, and assumptive models are, again, comparing health to wealth of a world population. There are no right answers.

You really have to ask yourself... Ethically speaking, is there really an economic value on someone's head, young or old?
 

Rivoli

Silver Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Speedway Pass
Jun 4, 2018
349
564
239
Orange County, California
I don't see anywhere where I've said that I'm open to it???
@biophase Give me a beak dude. Once I’m unbanned I’ll reply to every post you made there making fun of me for not being ok with a complete shut down of the entire economy - layoffs be damned.

Even MJ made fun of me saying I’m ok with killing “Millions of people” for a “few GDP points”

Well Morgan Stanley is saying we’re going to have a 24% drop in GDP for Q2, and I bet we’re going to see suicides, starvation and other ailments of despair skyrocket in the next couple weeks.

Plus all the hidden costs of a recession..families broken apart because both parents working low paying jobs after getting laid off, kids neglected, malnutrition, poor education, no retirement.

All because anyone who had any disagreement like myself got shot down in the panic of overreaction.
 

MJ DeMarco

Administrator
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 23, 2007
30,014
107,096
3,751
Fountain Hills, AZ
All because anyone who had any disagreement like myself got shot down in the panic of overreaction.
OMG stop with the strawman bullshit.

You got shut down because you said the same thing TEN TIMES. Just like your post above, you posted it ONCE, then you posted it again. WORD FOR WORD.

We don't need to read your opinion posted 20 times on 20 different threads, some started by you.

You are welcome to post your opinion, but I don't need to read the same version of it (with different syntax) every 3 posts.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Sponsored Offers

  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Lex DeVille's - Advanced Freelance Udemy Courses!
Advanced Upwork Proposals II IS FINALLY LIVE! Here's a look at what's inside: Improved YOU...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE You Are One Call Away From Living Your Dream Life - LightHouse’s Accountability Program ⚡
Here is where you eliminate uncertainty from the future! I wanted to post this image as I...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE KAK’s “Kill Bigger” Incubation Program- With DAILY personal attention.
Hey Guys! I wanted to give a quick update on what this program has become. In its infancy, we...


Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe to become an INSIDER.

Fastlane Insiders

View the forum AD FREE.
Private, unindexed content
Detailed process/execution threads
Monthly conference calls with doers
Ideas needing execution, more!

Join Fastlane Insiders.

Top Bottom
AdBlock Detected - Please Disable

Yes, ads can be annoying. But please...

...to support the Unscripted/Fastlane mission (and to respect the immense amount of time needed to manage this forum) please DISABLE your ad-block. Thank you.

I've Disabled AdBlock