I've Read UNSCRIPTED
- Jan 29, 2020
Now 2021 and 2022 could be a different story. But the more we talk about that the more prepared we can be. It's fun to look at all the posts in here from two years ago and people very adamant that a recession will occur "in two months". I'm not smart enough, and I think no one is, to make such predictions.My report again, will reflect the strength of the economy because it is based on many psychological factors that completely dictate its health. It's not a copy and paste of data, but the emotions those elicit.
I might start another post on 2021-2022. Why is this different? Well China.
My circle of folks and myself are not sure how the Chinese intend to avoid or circumvent some issues that are coming down the line in 10-15 years that a major milestone occurs in 18-24 months.
I wouldn't be surprised if China starts a limited conflict within the next 18 months with Indonesia or some other (or multiple) export partners after bumping heads with contested territory. They will need to get the public's mind off of domestic issues and to reignite nationalism. I could see an intervention in Africa, Middle East, etc against some soft but tricky enemy. Not sure who or what that could be right now. The Chinese typically don't do anything new or unique, they are following the American playbook, wagging the dog isn't out of the realm of possibility. They're getting old and people's access to information is harder to control, so they have to do something to avert an economic crisis.
I will tell you there is also another development happening in 2 years that will change the game and threaten the entire fabric of the CCP. Any disturbance domestically could be a big deal. A Chinese civil war could be very costly for the global marketplace, those exposed in this area could really be pummeled and judging how asset managers navigate the next two years will help determine the recoil the US economy will experience. Whatever had a hiccup with coronavirus outbreak, I'd say to get out of anything within two degrees. The risk is quite high. I haven't met any analysts who have a favorable outlook of China (10-15yr), unless they pull off something that culturally we couldn't stomach. There is one fact which is national debt. I wouldn't put it past them to erase a majority of Chinese citizens' savings. They pretty much operate like that anyway. Not sure if the public would stand and fight. We did as Americans, but the Chinese may not. They have to rapidly move to a consumption-based economy in order to help stabilize against the incoming disruption. They are doing this now.
Access to information is lock, how to properly analyze it is key.
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