I dont know. Most of the predictions are based that "the system" is going along as usual. But we are not in a stable system by definition and it is adaptive. For example, to some extend the repo market was not part of the discussion for several years. But starting in mid 2019 we see this big spike. The fed will decide whether this is more a delta function or a heavy side function ( short vs long time) and then it will have its effect. For the guys it is not to see the technical implications of their doing. In physics and engineering I need a close loop (measure and control) system to regulate for a certain value. Mostly FED uses interest rates for this. That is why we are discussing things like inverted yield curves here, or repo rates.I feel like there is some truth to this. And I'm not sure we're as far away from it "blowing" as you think.
If I have one value to control and I know how to co troll it, that is simple. But the markets are adaptive. A tool that worked 20 years ago might not work the same way anymore.
I do not want to be a fed representative, I stick with my machines.
if they find major flaws they have to fix the system, integrate a new mechanism and usually this is preceded by a big bust. We can ask why? Look, it is similar how AIs work. You build up a neural network and train it for example to run along a path, underneath filled with lava. Everytime the ai failed, you reset the system and start from zero until you find your perfect match of regulating parameters. But you have to start from zero. In economics you cannot, and here we have to do huge efforts to reset our system to "working" mode again where we thing we can run it smoothly again.
Just my engineering perspective...
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