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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

c4n

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Read an interesting blog post at IMF.org (International Monetary Fund) today:

It talks about how to prevent people from avoiding negative interest rates by withdrawing cash from banks. You can't pay negative interest on hard cash, can you?

Well, it appears you could. Because you can't outright ban cash (yet), the idea is to decouple cash from electronic money (debit cards and all the digits you see in your bank account) and make people pay the negative interest when they try to deposit the cash back (converting it to "electronic money").

Looks like someone is preparing to drop rates further into negative values in the next crisis? Thoughts?


Related IMF working paper: Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money
 

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PizzaOnTheRoof

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Read an interesting blog post at IMF.org (International Monetary Fund) today:

It talks about how to prevent people from avoiding negative interest rates by withdrawing cash from banks. You can't pay negative interest on hard cash, can you?

Well, it appears you could. Because you can't outright ban cash (yet), the idea is to decouple cash from electronic money (debit cards and all the digits you see in your bank account) and make people pay the negative interest when they try to deposit the cash back (converting it to "electronic money").

Looks like someone is preparing to drop rates further into negative values in the next crisis? Thoughts?


Related IMF working paper: Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money
Hello gold and silver
 
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JScott

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Looks like someone is preparing to drop rates further into negative values in the next crisis? Thoughts?
A few months ago, I thought it was ridiculous to think we'd ever see negative rates here in the US. These days, I'm completely rethinking that stance. The fact that the Fed doesn't seem to care about rates going to 0%, and the fact that we already don't have enough runway to support positive rates in a downturn (typically speaking, rates drop an average of about 5% during a recession), leads me to believe that negative rates could certainly become a reality in the near future.

Here's a post I made on Facebook a couple months back about how negative rates could play out:

NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES

I received a lot of great feedback for my economic post last week, but it generated a lot of questions related to negative interest rates, as that concept has been all over the news the past few weeks. So today, I’m going to tackle the basics of negative interest rates, why they might happen, and why they are very likely to be bad for our economy long-term…

In order to make things simple, this post is going to be a bit long. Sorry about that, but people seem to appreciate when I start with the basics (that's how I like to learn as well!).

So, let’s start with a quick primer on interest rates:

The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) controls interest rates, and they raise/lower rates in order to impact people’s spending and saving. When the economy is struggling, the Fed will lower interest rates – this means that you get less benefit from saving money, more benefit from borrowing money (since interest rates are lower), and encourages Americans to SPEND MORE. This helps our economy. On the other side of things, when the economy is too strong, we start to see inflation (a rise in prices) based on all the spending Americans are doing. So, the Fed increases rates – this encourages savings (savings accounts pay more interest), discourage borrowing (rates are higher), and Americans start to SPEND LESS.

Long story short, lower rates spur the economy; higher rates slow the economy. When entering a recession, the Fed will lower rates to get us out of it.

One important historical economic data point is that during a typical recession, the Fed will have to lower rates by an average of about 5 points to spur the economy out of the recession. But, what happens when rates are lower than 5% when the economic downturn starts? This is the issue that many countries are facing today – rates are under 5%, economies are softening, and governments are forced to lower rates even past the 0% mark in order to try to spur economic growth.

In the US, rates are currently at around 2%. What happens if -- when the downturn comes -- the Fed has to lower rates below 0% to get us out of it? I’m not saying that this will definitely happen in the US, but it certainly could.

So, what does a negative interest rate mean and how could it affect our economy?

I'm assuming we all inherently understand how rates work – when you borrow money, you pay back the amount you borrow plus a little more. That “little more” is based on the interest rate – the lower the rate, the less the “little more” is that you need to pay back. When the interest rate is 0%, you pay back $1 for every $1 you borrow, and there is no “little more” that you have to pay back (no interest!).

But, with negative interest rates, not only does the borrower not have to pay back a “little more,” but the borrower actually pays back LESS than what they borrowed (ignoring fees and such). For example, if I borrow $100 at a negative interest rate, I may only have to pay back the lender $98 or $99 instead of the full $100!

You might be asking, why would a lender loan money in a situation where they aren’t even going to get the full amount back??? The answer is that the lender may not have a better option. If they put that money in the bank, and the bank is paying negative interest, that means that the bank isn’t going to return the full amount of the deposit (instead of paying interest on your savings, negative rates means you’re paying the bank to hold your money). Likewsie with bonds and other "safe" investments.

So, a lender may be happier loaning money at negative .5% than putting that money in a bank account or bonds earning negative .75%. They lose less money that way!

So far, that doesn’t sound too bad… Negative rates helps us as investors because not only do we borrow money cheaply, but we don’t even have to pay back the full amount! But, in reality, it’s not all good. Successful investors tend to have a lot of cash, and they need some place to put that cash. As real estate investors, if we want to take advantage of borrowing at negative interest rates, we need to put our cash somewhere other than the houses we’re buying. But, just like we’re getting negative interest on the money we’re borrowing, many investments are paying negative interest as well. It costs money to keep our cash in the bank, it costs money to put that cash in government or corporate bonds, it costs money to lend, etc.

And while there will still be investments that pay returns above 0%, we may start to see returns that are lower than the risk profile of those investments suggest they should be. In other words, we're not getting the returns we need on those investments to cover the risk of those investments. Meaning that overall, on average, we're losing money on those other investments. Just like with safer negative interest investments

For poorer people, negative rates are even worse. They are seeing their savings eroded away, and the small negative interest they are paying to the bank could be enough to drive them to insolvency. One big effect of very low or negative interest rates is that it drives the inequality gap, hurting poorer people more than it hurts wealthier people. Low rates have already exacerbated the wealth gap over the past decade – that would get much, much worse with negative rates.

Next, think about how negative rates would affect big companies in the US? Berkshire Hathaway has over $100B in cash, Apple has over $200B and Facebook has about $50B – how do you think their balance sheets will look when they are losing money on those cash reserves quarter over quarter. And when corporate balance sheets get ugly, our equities markets (i.e., the stock market) starts to get ugly. Negative interest rates could have a massive impact on equity/stock prices.

In addition, negative interest rates run the risk of destroying bank profits. Sure, they get to pay back less than you deposit, but people are much less likely to deposit money at negative interest rates, and more likely to stash it under their mattress or in a hole in their back yard. Negative interest rates are typically very bad for banks, which can cause issues that then trickle into the broader economy. For anyone who understands the idea of “time value of money,” where a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow, this entire monetary concept will be flipped – a dollar tomorrow will be worth more than a dollar today!

Next, negative interest rates in one country encourages citizens of that country to ship their money to another country or another currency that might be paying a bit more (or is less negative). That hurts the local currency and the local economy. This is part of the reason why the US dollar is so strong right now – lots of foreign investors bringing money into the US and investing in our currency, as our rates are higher than some other places in the world. Without getting too complicated, this is part of the reason why we’ve seen an inversion in the yield curve recently – when a lot of money is flowing into bonds, the “yield” on those bonds will drop (with bonds, more demand means a lower return). With many other countries dropping rates, and in some cases already in negative rate territory, a lot of foreign money is flowing into US government bonds, pushing yields down.

Speaking of other countries, we’re already seeing negative rates in several places. Japan went negative on their rates in 2016, and their economy has been sluggish since (and well before). Part of Europe and Denmark are also in negative territory on their rates. Even closer to home, companies like Apple, McDonalds and Pepsi are already issuing bonds/debt at negative rates, meaning that if you loan these companies money by buying their bonds, you’ll get less back than you invested when the bond expires! But, investors are still happy to put their money there, as they consider it safer than other investments that might pay a little more (or cost a little less).

To put things into perspective, there are a total of about $115 trillion in bonds around the world, both companies and governments. As of right now, $15 trillion of those bonds are paying negative yields! That’s a huge percentage. If the US decides to go negative, that total could skyrocket (about 45% of all non-US bonds are negative yielding right now).

As for how negative interest rates would ultimately affect the economy long-term, the answer is that nobody has any idea. Most economists speculate that things won’t end well, but considering it’s uncharted territory, who knows.
 

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NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES
All it's doing is inflating the bubble that is the US stock market.

Prices are being bid up by global dollars searching for YIELD on cash.

Not only is this problematic, it will pose a liquidity issue when everyone starts running for the exits.

People have always asked since the last bubble (housing) what's the next bubble?

Now we know. It's the stock market.
 

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With negative interest rate, doesn’t that give you the incentive to borrow? Wouldn’t the housing market increase due to negative interest rates?
 
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JScott

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With negative interest rate, doesn’t that give you the incentive to borrow? Wouldn’t the housing market increase due to negative interest rates?
Keep in mind that the rate that will go negative is the Federal Funds Rate. This is the internal rate that banks borrow from each other and the Fed.

Mortgage interest rates (and other rates) are influenced by the fed funds rate, but not controlled by it. Other factors that play into consumer interest rates are bond rates, supply and demand, and direct manipulation by the lenders. For example, just because the fed funds rate goes negative, that doesn't mean that a bank needs to offer negative rates on mortgages, lines of credit, credit cards, etc. They can do whatever they want, within the confines of what supply and demand will allow.

If fed funds rate goes to 0%, my guess is that mortgage rates will get down to about 2 - 2.5%. Any fed funds reduction from there might trigger a drop in consumer rates, but will likely also trigger an increase in loan fees. If you ever see a 0% mortgage rate, you can probably bet that won't mean free money. You just won't necessarily be paying the costs as interest.
 

c4n

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If fed funds rate goes to 0%, my guess is that mortgage rates will get down to about 2 - 2.5%. Any fed funds reduction from there might trigger a drop in consumer rates, but will likely also trigger an increase in loan fees.
That is exactly what is happening here in the EU. Anyone with average regular income can get a 30-year mortgage at EURIBOR + 2.5% or 3.45% fixed-rate, in some countries even lower.
 

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People have always asked since the last bubble (housing) what's the next bubble?

Now we know. It's the stock market.
This. The one hundred year reset. Black Tuesday of 2029.

Ironically, I came to the same conclusion the other day finally identifying what asset is in a bubble right now and where the "tipping point pop" will come from. (student loans? consumer debt? fed policies? oil? trade war?... No silly, it's right there in front of you, so big and obvious that it's overlooked). The stock market.

Initially browsing around looking for a black swan that could catalyst an upcoming recession..... a recession is not even my focus anymore after really digging & analyzing. Never mind anticipating the section of rough rocky narrow as we float down in our river raft; watching for the narrow is blinding us from seeing the waterfall that comes after.

Without going into too much detail; I believe we are in the late stage of the Belief stage of the stock market bubble. Exiting this Belief stage into Thrill soon after whatever upcoming recession ends (around mid 2020's). Although the early adopter/movers have already flashed subtle beginning signs of Thrill stage characteristics such as: average Joes recruiting friends, Forex courses exploding (and we all know what market stage we are at when courses flood in), etc. etc. - These are just brewing in small scale, those first movers are already in Thrill while general retail population is still in Belief mode waiting to be pulled in.

The Thrill stage being driven from "now that we got the recession out the way, it's clear coasting & full speed ahead for ten years!". As technically the upcoming recession will likely be more so just a continuation correction of the current expansion/bull market, so essentially things pick up right where they left off after a fairly quick recovery.

Then finally entering the Euphoria stage nearing the end of the 2020's.. I'm thinking the Euphoria stage will last around 6 months (obviously very short time frame when compared to every other stage).

28854
 
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Although the early adopter/movers have already flashed subtle beginning signs of Thrill stage characteristics such as: average Joes recruiting friends, Forex courses exploding (and we all know what market stage we are at when courses flood in), etc. etc. -
It also does not help when the young folks start to consider stock market and other financial trading avenues as another means besides the 9-5.

Starting a regular business or even a part-time hustle to stave off the 9-5, I can understand.

But when you are having kids fresh out of college doing the financial markets thing, without a decent financial education, more or less a degree in finance, shits gonna go real.

I've probably heard from an uncle for the umpteenth time that, 'You should learn from those guys in Singapore...fresh out of college and they just get into stocks and trading....'

Currently my parents are pushing me to 'invest', and I am conflicted as to whether to tell them that the market is inherently F*cked- even here in Malaysia.

@MJ DeMarco, since a wide stock market bubble burst could affect almost every other instrument, would you consider this an 'apocalypse-level' event, as in UNSCRIPTED? Gold and guns? It appears to me that is so, since the finance markets are heavily centered around the public companies.
 

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make people pay the negative interest when they try to deposit the cash back
Just spit coffee on my screen.

negative interest rates
That's a funny way to call "tax on HAVING money"

Btw. Gov is also reducing the amount of money on the market that they were happily printing for last decade.
 
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People have always asked since the last bubble (housing) what's the next bubble?

Now we know. It's the stock market.
It definitely looks like the stock market is over-valued. From an historical perspective, it's about as overvalued as it's ever been in recent history -- just above the early 2000s bubble.

To throw some data behind it, there is a popular economic data point called The Buffet Indicator (so-called because Warren Buffett believes in it, not because he invented it). It's a measure of the ratio of the total of US equities -- basically, the value of the entire set of major stock markets, often using the Willshire 5000 price index -- and the total output of the US (nominal quarterly GDP is a common measure).

In layman's terms, it's basically a comparison of the stock market value to economic GDP. In theory, the market should rise proportionately to economic growth -- no faster or slower. If the market underpaces or outpaces economic growth, it should eventually "revert to the mean." Sometimes different indexes are used than the ones I mentioned above, but the general ratio of Equities to GDP stays the same.

Historically, the mean for this ratio is somewhere around .9 (or 90%). When the ratio is below about 90%, we typically say that the stock market is under-valued. If it's over 90%, we typically say that the stock market is over-valued.

As of today, the Willshire 5000 is at about 31,960. (Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index)

Nominal Quarterly 3Q19 GDP was 21,525. (Gross Domestic Product)

So, as a rough measure, the Buffett Indicator today is about 148%.

During the 2000 bubble, it was at about the same level. And if you believe this ratio is indicative of where the stock market *should* be, then it's probably safe to assume that we're currently overvalued by about 40%.

Here's an historical chart using the same data points (this one was from about three weeks ago):

28856
 

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JScott

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That's a funny way to call "tax on HAVING money"
It's not a tax on having money. It's a tax on having the government *protect* your money.

Remember, rates are a reflection of risk (investors are found of saying "Rates = Risk")...

Btw. Gov is also reducing the amount of money on the market that they were happily printing for last decade.
That's most certainly not true...

The Fed balance sheet was contracting for a couple years, but the recent trend has been huge expansion:

 

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Starting a regular business or even a part-time hustle to stave off the 9-5, I can understand.

But when you are having kids fresh out of college doing the financial markets thing, without a decent financial education, more or less a degree in finance, shits gonna go real.
Observing the Exact same. Reminds me exactly of a certain period in Bitcoin.
 

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So, as a rough measure, the Buffett Indicator today is about 148%.
Thanks for sharing the measure. Really puts in perspective what I'm seeing, but couldn't exactly quantify.
 

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This is an updated chart of the one I posted around the time the yield curve inverted. I took the Google Trends of 'recession' and 'inverted yield curve' and overlayed both on the Dow Jones.

28858
One thing I know for sure about trading markets is that people forget very quickly if there was no cause of pain.

With that said, it's not a coincidence that 'inverted yield curve' is pretty much forgotten by the general public. Even take a look at this thread itself, that term 'inverted yield curve' is all but gone in the last months of posts. As well as 'recession' as this thread itself has slowed down.

Anyways; there's a couple alarms that I see when I analyze this updated chart.

1) General public's awareness in the correlation between an inverted yield curve and a recession. Both spiked at the same time which was not the case even 10 years ago. The pain of the Great Recession caused this heightened general public awareness.

Conclusion: Because of this awareness and "Fear".. contrarily, this "Great Expansion" we are going through (aka "Roaring 20's" referring to the decade before the Great Depression) will continue. Sure we will get corrections here and there but generally, we will bounce back quickly and continue on with the bull market.

I'm not one to say "see I told you I was right", but I was the only one completely convinced via sentiment and fundamentals... yelling that the markets will continue higher to breaking all time highs over the next months.

The same fundamentals that lead me to that conclusion still exists, and from this chart, it looks like it won't be stopping any time soon either.

2) There is an eery hidden fractal that matches our stage to 2005. Instead of the DJIA (Dow) I should have used a chart from the housing market, but either way, it should still illustrate the point.

It's hard to explain the fractal but I placed a green box where the main action will likely happen if it does indeed follow it.

But here's my conclusions from it:

a) Until the public interest of 'recession' all but completely disappears shown once the Orange line crosses over the Blue line (where the Orange is on top). You can think of this as Blue Line is general public while the very small minority of the smartest investors continue to monitor 'inverted yield curve' related information even when any recession concerns are completely dead. This would likely be directly tied with the market top aka distribution range of these smart investors (whales, big wig insiders, funds, etc.)

b) Then once they have completed distribution, their interest would all but disappear. The orange line would then look similar to how a bear market looks.. Meaning most times, there is a huge descending triangle where the highs become lower than the last, and the lows become lowers than the last.. eventually leading to a "dead" flat line at the bottom.

Once we see this flat line aka dead market bear.. this is when the big sell offs begin to happen. Because that first wave of sells never recovers like it would normally due, because the floor was actually wiped out from underneath the "holders" from the smart guys who distributed the top.

c) Of course, the Blue line public interest of 'recession' would spike really hard shortly once the sell offs are the real deal. And obviously; at that point, it would either be in the middle of capitulation or right at the bottom. Which is ironic, because this is one of my best working counter-signals on when to enter markets.

3) At this point; I am about 90% sure this is how things will play out. The scale at which this compares to 2005 is many fold times bigger which indicates it would be near a Great Depression type size. Also, "things are too big" to turn things around or steer the course the other way, too big of a ship.. which is why my 90% is kicked in, because it's highly unlikely we don't have a Depression in 10 years.

The main thing, the psychology and sentiment fits "bubble" stages in almost every textbook fashion. I could sit here and write a book about the sentiment/psy things you can't find in text books, but all of those are firing warning flags as well.
 
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With that said, it's not a coincidence that 'inverted yield curve' is pretty much forgotten by the general public. Even take a look at this thread itself, that term 'inverted yield curve' is all but gone in the last months of posts. As well as 'recession' as this thread itself has slowed down.
Yeah, it's always interesting what people latch onto...

In terms of the yield curve, I'm having a lot of people tell me that they don't believe a recession is coming because the yield curve has gone back to normal...so, clearly the problem has corrected itself.

I don't like to argue about it (okay, maybe I do), but the fact is, the yield always goes back to normal within a few weeks after an inversion (worst case, within a few months). And it's always relatively normal looking when the recession hits.

For example, if you look at the data for August 10, 2006, you'll see that the 2 year and 10 year bonds were equal, and the expirations in-between were lower (classic yield curve inversion):


If you then jump to early 2007 -- still a good six months prior to the Dow starting to drop and a year before the major crisis began -- you'll see a normalized yield curve. It stayed that way through 2019...
 

JunkBoxJoey_JBJ

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If fed funds rate goes to 0%, my guess is that mortgage rates will get down to about 2 - 2.5%. Any fed funds reduction from there might trigger a drop in consumer rates, but will likely also trigger an increase in loan fees. If you ever see a 0% mortgage rate, you can probably bet that won't mean free money. You just won't necessarily be paying the costs as interest.
Taking that into consideration...

Would you then consider taking a more serious look at buying an investment portfolio/real property even though the property price may be higher or comes with higher loan fees?

Somehow I think your answer will have the word "depends" in it and "do the math"...
 
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Taking that into consideration...

Would you then consider taking a more serious look at buying an investment portfolio/real property even though the property price may be higher or comes with higher loan fees?

Somehow I think your answer will have the word "depends" in it and "do the math"...
I'm always looking to buy good real estate deals. The bigger question is, does the reduction in rates create more deals than previously? And my take is that a reduction in rates alone isn't going to impact the real estate market considerably.

One of two things would have to happen before real estate values change considerably:

1. Real wage growth increases a good bit (in which case values will go higher); or
2. The economy turns and unemployment increases (in which case values will go lower).

At this point in the economic cycle, I believe #2 is almost certainly going to happen before #1, so I do think there will be more opportunity to buy real estate, but that opportunity will more be a function of lower prices, not lower rates.

In the multi-family space, there tends to be a lower-limit on cap rate compression (the delta between interest rates and cap rates), and I think we'll see that at about 0% interest rates and 3% cap rates. If interest rates go negative, I don't believe cap rates will go lower, so there may be some opportunity in the multi-family space when that happens.

That said, negative interest rates and 3% cap rates create their own problems, so there are a lot of other variables to consider. I wouldn't rush out to buy multi-family just because the mortgage rate and cap rate spread starts to increase...

Long story short, it depends and you'll need to do the math... ;)
 

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At this point in the economic cycle, I believe #2 is almost certainly going to happen before #1, so I do think there will be more opportunity to buy real estate, but that opportunity will more be a function of lower prices, not lower rates.
That's interesting ...and not knowing sh*t, my gut feels like #2 is way more likely too just based on the totality of circumstances.

And thanks for the other points made.
 

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I was thinking about this the other day...

About the market's continual run up and how negative interest rates was playing a role.

It was a scene I saw before but couldn't exactly pinpoint it. It was a scenario that felt familiar.

Then I figured it out.

Instead of trying to explain it via written word, here it is drawn:

IMG_0978.JPG
 

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Who's the poor guy behind the second smoke stack... Yikes.
 

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About the market's continual run up and how negative interest rates was playing a role.
So even though you have strong feelings about the stock market unless you have "extra money" to allocate/play, and without giving financial advice ...could I deduct to continue to "stay in cash" for the time being?

Thus, you would already be on the lifeboat?
 

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It definitely looks like the stock market is over-valued. From an historical perspective, it's about as overvalued as it's ever been in recent history -- just above the early 2000s bubble.

To throw some data behind it, there is a popular economic data point called The Buffet Indicator (so-called because Warren Buffett believes in it, not because he invented it). It's a measure of the ratio of the total of US equities -- basically, the value of the entire set of major stock markets, often using the Willshire 5000 price index -- and the total output of the US (nominal quarterly GDP is a common measure).

In layman's terms, it's basically a comparison of the stock market value to economic GDP. In theory, the market should rise proportionately to economic growth -- no faster or slower. If the market underpaces or outpaces economic growth, it should eventually "revert to the mean." Sometimes different indexes are used than the ones I mentioned above, but the general ratio of Equities to GDP stays the same.

Historically, the mean for this ratio is somewhere around .9 (or 90%). When the ratio is below about 90%, we typically say that the stock market is under-valued. If it's over 90%, we typically say that the stock market is over-valued.

As of today, the Willshire 5000 is at about 31,960. (Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index)

Nominal Quarterly 3Q19 GDP was 21,525. (Gross Domestic Product)

So, as a rough measure, the Buffett Indicator today is about 148%.

During the 2000 bubble, it was at about the same level. And if you believe this ratio is indicative of where the stock market *should* be, then it's probably safe to assume that we're currently overvalued by about 40%.

Here's an historical chart using the same data points (this one was from about three weeks ago):

View attachment 28856
Very interesting stuff.

I'm curious, for the stock, etf, mutual fund investors who believe that we are at the peak, are you holding off on all of your US investments until the crash? I know it's pretty difficult to time these sorts of things, but there will be some good deals once the crash comes, if it does...
 

MJ DeMarco

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So even though you have strong feelings about the stock market unless you have "extra money" to allocate/play, and without giving financial advice ...could I deduct to continue to "stay in cash" for the time being?

Thus, you would already be on the lifeboat?
No debt. Home free and clear. Mix of cash, hard and business assets. Municipal bonds. In a calamitous event, nothing will be immune, the question will be, what will be hit hardest the least.
 

Kid

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That's most certainly not true...
I get it for being not true for credit - people give back less than they borrowed so more of cash is left on market.

How it is not true for tax on savings (in the bank)?

The Fed balance sheet was contracting for a couple years, but the recent trend has been huge expansion:
Thanks for the link, nice read.
 
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JScott

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I get it for being not true for credit - people give back less than they borrowed so more of cash is left on market.

How it is not true for tax on savings (in the bank)?
My "That's not true..." was in reference to you saying the Fed reducing their balance sheet, not about taxation... I included the link for that reason.
 
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theresgot2bemore

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Amazing thread! In my ignorance I had no idea what raising the rates did but now I know along with other lessons learned. The fact that all data points are taken into account in this thread, to include political strategy, makes this so much better compared to the weak analysis that exists elsewhere. I've yet to find anywhere else that uses FACTS and LOGIC to show the reality of the situation instead of what "feels" right (quite a bit of folks are going off of Trump tweets alone at the moment).

This whole ordeal makes me very uncomfortable. If it gets bad enough I'm not sure if we'll see some actual civil unrest.
 

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