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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

PizzaOnTheRoof

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I was in a terrible downturn in Los Angeles around 1990. The RE market crashed hard. It took most of that decade to recover. The 1980s had been all about OPM (using other people's money). Almost all of my friends in the RE business ended up in bankruptcy court with their hats in the hands.

Now, I'm part of the counter culture. I'm working a personal program to getting debt-free -- even my RE mortgages paid off. I've tried to talk to some of the other investors around me and they think I'm crazy. But, I remember the 1990 recession, and all of that pain I watched then. And, before that in 1980, the interest rate went from 12% to 21% just about overnight. There's nothing sure about the financial markets. I just know that equity and cash are king!
If you’re taking out interest only, variable rate, ballon loans then yeah you’re taking on massive risk.

Fixed rate 30 year mortgages are a MUCH safer way to leverage your money. Better than cash imo.
 

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Dan_Cardone

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Btw, to go along with my post above, three things to keep in mind:

1. Consumer debt is currently at an all-time high at over $4T.
2. Mortgage debt is currently at an all-time high at over $9T.
3. Corporate debt is currently at an all-time high at over $19T.

Do with that information what you will...
What book if you dont mind me asking?
 

WJK

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If you’re taking out interest only, variable rate, ballon loans then yeah you’re taking on massive risk.

Fixed rate 30 year mortgages are a MUCH safer way to leverage your money. Better than cash imo.
OK? Good luck. A 30-year mortgage can be a little bit safer... I guess I've seen too much over the last 43 years in the RE business. If these graphs are right... if the financial markets crash hard and we go into a depression... I sure don't want those payments hanging around my neck.

I have "friends" who do the BRRRR plans. Every time they get even a hint of equity, they run out and refi. One, in particular, invests in apartment buildings. I keep reminding him that those are commercial loans and are subject to loan calls during downturns. He doesn't believe me. I keep telling him that I saw those situations in the past. And I was hired on audit teams by the Feds when the Savings and Loan Associations, who had those loans, also went down. He keeps buying more and I keep paying down my mortgages.

It's just a different point of view.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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OK? Good luck. A 30-year mortgage can be a little bit safer... I guess I've seen too much over the last 43 years in the RE business. If these graphs are right... if the financial markets crash hard and we go into a depression... I sure don't want those payments hanging around my neck.

I have "friends" who do the BRRRR plans. Every time they get even a hint of equity, they run out and refi. One, in particular, invests in apartment buildings. I keep reminding him that those are commercial loans and are subject to loan calls during downturns. He doesn't believe me. I keep telling him that I saw those situations in the past. And I was hired on audit teams by the Feds when the Savings and Loan Associations, who had those loans, also went down. He keeps buying more and I keep paying down my mortgages.

It's just a different point of view.
I think it's a spectrum of risk, and most people don't have $100k-$200K sitting around to buy a property in cash. They'd miss out on more opportunity saving up to buy with cash than if they have just made a modest down payment years earlier.

Obviously, your "friends" don't mind the risk of BRRRR investing, meanwhile you've seen some shit and want no part of it. I wouldn't touch a variable balloon loan with a 10-foot pole.

My plan is to hold RE for the rest of my life and pass it down to my kids someday. I don't think buying mid-level properties, renting at just below market rates, on a 30-year fixed is all that much riskier than cash.

But the upside of leveraging your initial investment far outweighs the risk. IMO

Even in a severe downturn, people still need a place to live. They tend to sell their overpriced homes and rent modest homes....which is right where you want to be.

Don't go and leverage yourself up on a $1M+ property, because nobody will rent it at the bottom of the market and you'll be footing the bill when things go south.

On the flip side don't sell yourself short by buying low value, cheap housing just to save money. People would rather pick up a part-time job then live in a mobile home in a bad part of town.

Different strokes I guess.
 

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WJK

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I think it's a spectrum of risk, and most people don't have $100k-$200K sitting around to buy a property in cash. They'd miss out on more opportunity saving up to buy with cash than if they have just made a modest down payment years earlier.

Obviously, your "friends" don't mind the risk of BRRRR investing, meanwhile you've seen some shit and want no part of it. I wouldn't touch a variable balloon loan with a 10-foot pole.

My plan is to hold RE for the rest of my life and pass it down to my kids someday. I don't think buying mid-level properties, renting at just below market rates, on a 30-year fixed is all that much riskier than cash.

But the upside of leveraging your initial investment far outweighs the risk. IMO

Even in a severe downturn, people still need a place to live. They tend to sell their overpriced homes and rent modest homes....which is right where you want to be.

Don't go and leverage yourself up on a $1M+ property, because nobody will rent it at the bottom of the market and you'll be footing the bill when things go south.

On the flip side don't sell yourself short by buying low value, cheap housing just to save money. People would rather pick up a part-time job then live in a mobile home in a bad part of town.

Different strokes I guess.
If you are in USA, you are right on with the tax changes and the market. The middle of the market is where it's at. The tax changes are going to create a lot more renters in the residential mid-market and some bump in the luxury markets.
 

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It's geared specifically towards real estate investors...
But has plenty of value for people not interested in RE as well...
 

James Fend

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I think we have a general consensus things are greatly un-balanced and continuing to pile on in many spectrums across the board. So a matter of IF and not WHEN.. But...

Ramble thoughts about even after that; I wonder what will pull us out of a future Depression? That's the scary part (or great part if it's some innovative tech breakthrough).. Last time it was War. Not so sure it would apply the same cause we only need a few bombs vs. 25,000 bombs and whatever else needed to support that industry. A few jets can fulfill what an entire battalion did back then.

Anyways; food for thought.

Every time they get even a hint of equity, they run out and refi. One, in particular, invests in apartment buildings. I keep reminding him that those are commercial loans and are subject to loan calls during downturns. He doesn't believe me. I keep telling him that I saw those situations in the past.
Yes. I am hearing these second hand stories all too much these days. In my trader mind; I call this stage of sentiment the 'Trill'. That is eventually followed by 'Euphoria' which is pretty much the top before a crash.
 
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SamRussell

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I think we have a general consensus things are greatly un-balanced and continuing to pile on in many spectrums across the board. So a matter of IF and not WHEN.. But...

Ramble thoughts about even after that; I wonder what will pull us out of a future Depression? That's the scary part (or great part if it's some innovative tech breakthrough).. Last time it was War. Not so sure it would apply the same cause we only need a few bombs vs. 25,000 bombs and whatever else needed to support that industry. A few jets can fulfill what an entire battalion did back then.

Anyways; food for thought.
eliminating a ton of regulation and taxes would allow the economy to take care of itself.

Longer term, government spending would need to be cut back to a small percentage of what it is now. Eliminating taxes and regulations would make it easier for the people leaving government jobs to find new jobs.
 

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Everyman

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Does that ring a bell to anyone...


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh7rdCYCQ_U
We aren’t even close to that. I think right now America is like Rome 50 years after the 3rd Punic war. We probably have another Huge Civil war and the conversion to dictator ship to go...
America has too much going for it
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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We aren’t even close to that. I think right now America is like Rome 50 years after the 3rd Punic war. We probably have another Huge Civil war and the conversion to dictator ship to go...
America has too much going for it
Not to mention almost every non dictatorship country depends on our support.

Despite what you think about American history, right now we’re the “benevolent empire”.
 

WJK

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I think we have a general consensus things are greatly un-balanced and continuing to pile on in many spectrums across the board. So a matter of IF and not WHEN.. But...

Ramble thoughts about even after that; I wonder what will pull us out of a future Depression? That's the scary part (or great part if it's some innovative tech breakthrough).. Last time it was War. Not so sure it would apply the same cause we only need a few bombs vs. 25,000 bombs and whatever else needed to support that industry. A few jets can fulfill what an entire battalion did back then.

Anyways; food for thought.



Yes. I am hearing these second hand stories all too much these days. In my trader mind; I call this stage of sentiment the 'Trill'. That is eventually followed by 'Euphoria' which is pretty much the top before a crash.
The resulting recession in 1990 lasted almost a decade. I guess it was technically a depression. Our mantra in RE was "Stay alive 'til 95". 1995 came and went -- the recession continued without relief. In our market in Los Angeles, it was worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.
 
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JScott

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That's interesting. I wonder how that will affect the commercial loan market.
Mortgage rates haven't been terribly well correlated with interest rates the past few months, so who knows!

Here's what happened last week:

 

Everyman

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We aren’t even close to that. I think right now America is like Rome 50 years after the 3rd Punic war. We probably have another Huge Civil war and the conversion to dictator ship to go...
America has too much going for it
I agree. I don't have a crystal bowl (well, I have but it's a crystal bowl in the end).

I think the velocity of the collapse is greater today. Like Stefan (in the YT video) mentions, the time to travel from borders of Britain to Syria was around 6 months during the Roman Empire.

And today?

FED notes have already lost 97%-99.99% of their 'value' since the creation of the FED in 1913. But there are also two accomplices - Bank of Japan (stagnation started in 1990s and never ended) and ECB (hard to say but I won't make a mistake by saying Europe is stagnant since 2007, mildly). At least that we know of, so the Empire of Freedom exists because of that too...

My crystal bowl is saying that FED notes are already dead and gold backed currency ready and agreed upon... when and where is a completely different question...
 

Geekour

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Been thinking to buy land and build a small home from scratch on my own from nothing. Maybe even a log cabin kit home? I would learn a lot of useful skills along the way. Anybody have any experience buying land and building something like a homestead on? Not sure how land prices would be affected by the market. Pretty sure it is affected differently from apartments and residential real estate homes but I might be wrong here.
 

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WJK

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Been thinking to buy land and build a small home from scratch on my own from nothing. Maybe even a log cabin kit home? I would learn a lot of useful skills along the way. Anybody have any experience buying land and building something like a homestead on? Not sure how land prices would be affected by the market. Pretty sure it is affected differently from apartments and residential real estate homes but I might be wrong here.
I live in the woods in rural Alaska. I know all about building and living in this type of situation. I went to Los Angeles when I was 19 years and lived there for 30 years -- so I know both lives. It takes different skills to live here. Building is only one of them. How are you at felling trees for firewood? What do you know about hunting, fishing, and foraging? I grew up this way so it natural for me. We only eat out around once a week. Can you cook for yourself? And we must be able to fix just about anything that goes wrong around here.
The biggest problem is making a living. I provide almost all of the affordable housing for my community and the only Laundromat. I'm lucky to have my real estate background from Los Angeles. And I also have side businesses and incomes. Do you have marketable skills for an area like this?
We have people who just show up here with your same dream. We just wait and watch. If they aren't driving nails by May 1st, they aren't going to have a place to live by winter -- and housing is life and death here. That means having a prepared pad on which to build ready for that moment. Our ground is usually still frozen. Most go back to where they came from within the first year. You have a wonderful dream, but most who share it, don't know how to make it happen. And they don't want to work that hard.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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Been thinking to buy land and build a small home from scratch on my own from nothing. Maybe even a log cabin kit home? I would learn a lot of useful skills along the way. Anybody have any experience buying land and building something like a homestead on? Not sure how land prices would be affected by the market. Pretty sure it is affected differently from apartments and residential real estate homes but I might be wrong here.
My dad bought a few acres with a pond for about $37k.

He purchased a small storage shed, added a front door and is building it out like a small cabin/tiny house.

I help him doing all the framing, plumbing, electrical, insulation, solar power, etc.

Learned everything from YouTube/online.

We’re in Texas so weather is relatively temperate except in summer. Beefy insulation will go a long way to help.

I live in the woods in rural Alaska. I know all about building and living in this type of situation. I went to Los Angeles when I was 19 years and lived there for 30 years -- so I know both lives. It takes different skills to live here. Building is only one of them. How are you at felling trees for firewood? What do you know about hunting, fishing, and foraging? I grew up this way so it natural for me. We only eat out around once a week. Can you cook for yourself? And we must be able to fix just about anything that goes wrong around here.
The biggest problem is making a living. I provide almost all of the affordable housing for my community and the only Laundromat. I'm lucky to have my real estate background from Los Angeles. And I also have side businesses and incomes. Do you have marketable skills for an area like this?
We have people who just show up here with your same dream. We just wait and watch. If they aren't driving nails by May 1st, they aren't going to have a place to live by winter -- and housing is life and death here. That means having a prepared pad on which to build ready for that moment. Our ground is usually still frozen. Most go back to where they came from within the first year. You have a wonderful dream, but most who share it, don't know how to make it happen. And they don't want to work that hard.
Absolutely brutal homesteading in Alaska...not for the faint of heart.

Mad respect
 

WJK

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I live in the woods in rural Alaska. I know all about building and living in this type of situation. I went to Los Angeles when I was 19 years and lived there for 30 years -- so I know both lives. It takes different skills to live here. Building is only one of them. How are you at felling trees for firewood? What do you know about hunting, fishing, and foraging? I grew up this way so it natural for me. We only eat out around once a week. Can you cook for yourself? And we must be able to fix just about anything that goes wrong around here.
The biggest problem is making a living. I provide almost all of the affordable housing for my community and the only Laundromat. I'm lucky to have my real estate background from Los Angeles. And I also have side businesses and incomes. Do you have marketable skills for an area like this?
We have people who just show up here with your same dream. We just wait and watch. If they aren't driving nails by May 1st, they aren't going to have a place to live by winter -- and housing is life and death here. That means having a prepared pad on which to build ready for that moment. Our ground is usually still frozen. Most go back to where they came from within the first year. You have a wonderful dream, but most who share it, don't know how to make it happen. And they don't want to work that hard.
My dad bought a few acres with a pond for about $37k.

He purchased a small storage shed, added a front door and is building it out like a small cabin/tiny house.

I help him doing all the framing, plumbing, electrical, insulation, solar power, etc.

Learned everything from YouTube/online.

We’re in Texas so weather is relatively temperate except in summer. Beefy insulation will go a long way to help.


Absolutely brutal homesteading in Alaska...not for the faint of heart.

Mad respect
But, over the years, we've made a comfortable lifestyle. We just put a waste-oil-furnace into our big metal-shop building. That's one building that won't have to heat with wood anymore. You're right about the insulation. I had the building's interior sprayed with several inches of foam insulation when we built it -- and yes, my husband and I built it ourselves over a summer. We mostly use our woodstove in the house; we burn the wood that we've harvested, cut, split and stacked. We spend all summer getting ready for winter. It's a whole way of life that most people will never experience. People are very attracted until they realize how much work it involves.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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But, over the years, we've made a comfortable lifestyle. We just put a waste-oil-furnace into our big metal-shop building. That's one building that won't have to heat with wood anymore. You're right about the insulation. I had the building's interior sprayed with several inches of foam insulation when we built it -- and yes, my husband and I built it ourselves over a summer. We mostly use our woodstove in the house; we burn the wood that we've harvested, cut, split and stacked. We spend all summer getting ready for winter. It's a whole way of life that most people will never experience. People are very attracted until they realize how much work it involves.
I imagine people up there do it for freedom and self-reliance over the fantasy of a wooded lake house with chirping birds and bambi in their backyard.
 

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I am preparing to build a large house on 1.6 acres in Oregon. I have never built anything. I am looking at building an ICF house(look it up on YouTube). Very cool and very DIY/first-timer friendly. I hooked up with a local ICF expert that I am hiring to coach us through it.
 

Geekour

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I live in the woods in rural Alaska. I know all about building and living in this type of situation. I went to Los Angeles when I was 19 years and lived there for 30 years -- so I know both lives. It takes different skills to live here. Building is only one of them. How are you at felling trees for firewood? What do you know about hunting, fishing, and foraging? I grew up this way so it natural for me. We only eat out around once a week. Can you cook for yourself? And we must be able to fix just about anything that goes wrong around here.
The biggest problem is making a living. I provide almost all of the affordable housing for my community and the only Laundromat. I'm lucky to have my real estate background from Los Angeles. And I also have side businesses and incomes. Do you have marketable skills for an area like this?
We have people who just show up here with your same dream. We just wait and watch. If they aren't driving nails by May 1st, they aren't going to have a place to live by winter -- and housing is life and death here. That means having a prepared pad on which to build ready for that moment. Our ground is usually still frozen. Most go back to where they came from within the first year. You have a wonderful dream, but most who share it, don't know how to make it happen. And they don't want to work that hard.
Wow that is awesome! ! Really appreciate your response it was eye opening. Honestly congratulations for making all that happen. Really inspirational.

No, I have no experience felling trees as of yet. I have hunted before and know how to fish. I live in Texas currently; Alaska is another beast though lol. This would be a new experience for me. I was thinking to use a log cabin kit for my first build just to get the gist of things. For that reason I decided that my first build would be near a city and not too off grid but enough to get my feet wet and learn. I really want to build something for myself as I feel I have never built anything of significance just yet. I would also love to build a community of simple homes and cabins that can be put on Airbnb and rented out but I am getting ahead of myself. I need to start somewhere though.

Besides my day job as an RN, I currently am teaming up with my brother and learning about real estate (he is an agent). I also do real estate videography/photos for agents and counter top companies and such on the side.
 
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WJK

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Wow that is awesome! ! Really appreciate your response it was eye opening. Honestly congratulations for making all that happen. Really inspirational.

No, I have no experience felling trees as of yet. I have hunted before and know how to fish. I live in Texas currently; Alaska is another beast though lol. This would be a new experience for me. I was thinking to use a log cabin kit for my first build just to get the gist of things. For that reason I decided that my first build would be near a city and not too off grid but enough to get my feet wet and learn. I really want to build something for myself as I feel I have never built anything of significance just yet. I would also love to build a community of simple homes and cabins that can be put on Airbnb and rented out but I am getting ahead of myself. I need to start somewhere though.

Besides my day job as an RN, I currently am teaming up with my brother and learning about real estate (he is an agent). I also do real estate videography/photos for agents and counter top companies and such on the side.
Rather than a kit, try a cabin shell that's already built out. They will deliver it to your lot. Then you set it and finish it. You'll have to do the insulation, interior walls, plumbing, electrical, etc. But, the shell is constructed and "weathered in" -- walls, roof, windows... It will save you a lot of time. Also, being on-grid helps a lot. Being without power really sucks. I would choose a lot that has at least power to it. And you may need to dig a well and septic tank system. A working bathroom in the winter is pretty neat. (I hate outhouses.) Bringing in utilities is very expensive. Don't forget about zoning in your area and Building and Safety requirements. You may need some expert help to pick out the right lot for your adventure.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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Wow that is awesome! ! Really appreciate your response it was eye opening. Honestly congratulations for making all that happen. Really inspirational.

No, I have no experience felling trees as of yet. I have hunted before and know how to fish. I live in Texas currently; Alaska is another beast though lol. This would be a new experience for me. I was thinking to use a log cabin kit for my first build just to get the gist of things. For that reason I decided that my first build would be near a city and not too off grid but enough to get my feet wet and learn. I really want to build something for myself as I feel I have never built anything of significance just yet. I would also love to build a community of simple homes and cabins that can be put on Airbnb and rented out but I am getting ahead of myself. I need to start somewhere though.

Besides my day job as an RN, I currently am teaming up with my brother and learning about real estate (he is an agent). I also do real estate videography/photos for agents and counter top companies and such on the side.
Another thing, take your time looking for land. Don't settle.
 

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