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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2019-2020?)

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JScott

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...the indicator to watch for is the US unemployment rate. I think that will show and predict the futher internal demand most accurately.
Historically, unemployment is a lagging indicator:

 

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James Fend

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Shock/Catalyst/Trigger
  • Asset Bubble: 15%
  • Government Policy: 65%
  • Oil Price Surge: 20%
I would watch Oil Prices very carefully though over the next 1-4 years. I think this might be a sneaky one.
Interesting.. I posted this about a month ago on this thread. Just some additional thoughts on why I mentioned this:

Although.. the recent events with Saudi Arabia/Iran is Not "The Trigger".... yet...or may never be... or may be in combination of.

Anyways, the reason I even mentioned Oil in the first place is because I actually knew an event exactly like this was inevitably going to happen within the next year or two... I shy'ed away from explaining it publicly because well, my fundamentals for whatever seem to trigger the "you're bat shit stupid" reactions; best to keep to myself lol.

Anyways; this is based upon the psy of emotional cycles. Relations also have mini-cycles within big social emotional cycles on their own. And this, precisely, is why I included it and put it at 20% probabilty, higher than even any financial asset bubble.

To better explain; this latest event isn't a one-off random event. It is an after-effect of the current stage of the psy emotional cycle it's at. The relations (the cause) will remain the same and slowly get worse behind the scenes, and another after-effect will again sooner or later inevitably pop up again. Each time much worse... it will be hidden, effects will be fast, it will catch people off guard, and only someone can see just what exactly happened in hindsight.

Anyways; just thought it's interesting to observe and see how it all plays out. Do I think it still remains at 20% probability.. yes. At this point, nothing from a fundamental side that imo points it to be higher in what I think will be the 'official trigger' they put in Wikipedia 15 years from now. Or again, it could be in combination with and go hand to hand with the other 'triggers'.

But it's a sneaky one that I think most people have never looked at before today and will likely forget all about by next month.

That chart I posted a month ago is still the factors that I will go by for the upcoming year(s).

Until those factors happen; markets will continue it's upward trend until near election time next year.
 
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JScott

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For those that might be interested, I did a live-stream Q&A for real estate investors the other night, and much of the discussion focused on the economy, economic cycles, where I think we are in the current cycle and the data that supports this view.

Some of the discussion is real estate heavy, but a good chunk is pure economic stuff...

Here's the video for anyone who might be interested -- if you just care about the economics stuff, jump to about 16:30 in Part 1 and continue into Part 2:

Part 1.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhHYoJj7bn0


Part 2.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4Zj6ywLj6I


Part 3.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTYP6oNFkHo
 

JunkBoxJoey_JBJ

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For those that might be interested, I did a live-stream Q&A for real estate investors the other night, and much of the discussion focused on the economy, economic cycles, where I think we are in the current cycle and the data that supports this view.

Some of the discussion is real estate heavy, but a good chunk is pure economic stuff...

Here's the video for anyone who might be interested -- if you just care about the economics stuff, jump to about 16:30 in Part 1 and continue into Part 2:

Part 1.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhHYoJj7bn0


Part 2.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4Zj6ywLj6I


Part 3.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTYP6oNFkHo
Haha...And shameless plug, no links or mention by title, but look at J’s latest book on RE/cycles and more - really good.:thumbsup:
 

Kevin88660

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Do you think there is an objective way of measuring how "recession-proof" a business is? I am curious if there are any historical patterns for what industries and types of businesses do well, and which don't.

I would guess that "essentials" survive and ultra-luxury brands are not heavily impacted, but curious to see if there is any deeper analysis that you could point me towards.
Marriage photo-shot and funeral business. High profit margin too.
 

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socaldude

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Something tells me a large institution failed but it's not public info yet.:rofl:

I guess banks needs more casino money. :rofl:
 
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JScott

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Yeah, this wouldn't have been a big deal (at least not as much of a big deal) had this corrected itself after a day or two, but the fact that overnight rates have been fluctuating so greatly for four straight days is starting to get concerning. The biggest issue is that (it appears) they don't know what's causing the liquidity issue in the first place -- you can't fix something if you can't diagnose it!
 

MJ DeMarco

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they don't know what's causing the liquidity issue
Bloomberg had a pretty good explanation (can't find the link now) and said it was estimated tax payments and people/corporations were seeking liquidity to pay taxes. I know for a fact that I contributed to that circumstance as I had to withdraw 1/2 million from a MM 2 weeks ago, some for taxes, and some for some other purchases. Yet, this circumstance happens ever quarter, not sure what makes this time any different.
 

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nitrousflame

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I've been following this repo stuff as well and find it quite interesting. I find it especially curious that:
1) As MJ mentioned, tax forecasting happens regularly (it's not some unexpected surprise), and
2) This has now been going for several days and the amounts needed are increasing...

Seems like every article I read though says something slightly different about what is actually going on. The AFP link quotes a $275B figure as being pumped into the market. Is that figure just click bait though? My understanding was that these repo injections are just overnight loans paid back the next day. In other words, if for example they injected $100B for 4 days, that would still be essentially the same $100B, not $400B, right?
 

MJ DeMarco

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I've been following this repo stuff as well and find it quite interesting. I find it especially curious that:
1) As MJ mentioned, tax forecasting happens regularly (it's not some unexpected surprise), and
2) This has now been going for several days and the amounts needed are increasing...

Seems like every article I read though says something slightly different about what is actually going on. The AFP link quotes a $275B figure as being pumped into the market. Is that figure just click bait though? My understanding was that these repo injections are just overnight loans paid back the next day. In other words, if for example they injected $100B for 4 days, that would still be essentially the same $100B, not $400B, right?
Yea, it's really confusing stuff, like to trying to learn how to read Japanese. Hard to make any sense of it, much less make forecasts or educated decisions based on what's going on.
 

MTEE1985

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Bloomberg had a pretty good explanation (can't find the link now) and said it was estimated tax payments and people/corporations were seeking liquidity to pay taxes. I know for a fact that I contributed to that circumstance as I had to withdraw 1/2 million from a MM 2 weeks ago, some for taxes, and some for some other purchases. Yet, this circumstance happens ever quarter, not sure what makes this time any different.

I was on a call Tuesday with the chief global strategist from JPM and he was trying to explain it. His viewpoint was not a big deal nor a sign of an underlying issue. Not the same scenario as 2008 when the banks were short on reserves leading to QE.

Take it with a grain of salt of course.
 

Kid

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What record volume in stock markets means in today's context?
 

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