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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2018-2019?)

Discussion in 'Investing/Trading/Cryptocurrency/Altcoins' started by JScott, May 27, 2018.

  1. JScott
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    JScott Legendary Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR

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    Consumer debt, corporate debt & inflation.
     
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  2. Mainstream7
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    Mainstream7 Beauty is Truth

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    So as expected SPX starts to panic. I could see another bounce/leg up into May 19. Let´s see!
     
  3. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Holy shit, woke up today and didn't even look at the market was doing.
     
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  4. therealmark
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    therealmark Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER

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    I’ve been paying attention since I found this thread a while ago. Since Friday I have been seeing a lot of what you’ve been predicting starting to unfold. Very cool.
     
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  5. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Anyone who agreed with my theory and acted upon it should be doing very well right now...

    Now you have to decide, take profits and double, triple your money? Or let it ride and go for 5X, 10X?
     
    YoungPadawan, Tom.V, Xeon and 4 others like this.
  6. therealmark
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    therealmark Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER

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    Since I’m only playing with FU money I’m going to let it ride and learn.
     
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  7. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Dow down over 800.

    Wow. Just wow.

    I took very little profits today, still going to hold longer for some follow through till we get about down 10%. While I'm into some really big gains, none of it matters until I sell and lock it in. Most of it is volatility expansion, VIX > 22.

    I hold LONG VIX calls as well, those have already doubled.

    Yet, It could all disappear in a few days.

    I expect more follow through tomorrow, perhaps Friday.

    Rebound = most gains will evaporate.
     
    YoungPadawan, Tom.V, Xeon and 5 others like this.
  8. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Futures are already down another 20... that's another -2.00 on the open (SPY) or -20 on the SPX. Today was down was about 3%. Corrections usually go for 7-10%. Recession territory, 15 - 20%.
     
  9. JScott
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    JScott Legendary Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR

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    I think we had the same theory... :)

    All my options are concentrated into QQQ and XHB leap puts (between January and December 2019)...not selling anything yet...
     
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  10. Bryan James
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    Bryan James Bronze Contributor Speedway Pass

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    Boy the stock market got kicked in the nuts pretty hard today!
     
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  11. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    As of now, the Futures are now showing a -4.00 SPY open, -40 on the SPX.

    :jawdrop:
     
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  12. RayAndré
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    RayAndré Dare to differ. Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass Summit Attendee

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    Thanks everyone who's driven this thread over the past months. I've learned a TON of catch-up knowledge about the stock market I seemed to have missed in my first couple decades of life. :)

    If only I learned options trading and invested like MJ suggested ;)
     
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  13. Rivoli
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    Rivoli Bronze Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    So whats Socals' and MJ's recession prediction? When do you guys think it has a 75% chance of happening? 11/18? 12/18? 1/18? 2/18??
     
  14. Guest3722A
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    @MJ DeMarco @JScott

    I'm glad those trades finally turned in your direction in this stubborn market. I'm learning quite a bit from reading your posts. Curious as to how you guys deal with the amount of drawdown you incurred? Does it ever get painful? If so, how do you deal with that? Do you lose sleep and other similar things that I've seen other traders struggle with when in similar situations?

    I ask because my trading personality wants to cut the loss and just wait for a reposition or the next fight. Plus I've seen well capitalized traders "flip a lid" and break stuff!

    Also wondering how often early timing, which leads to depleted time value, affects your trades?

    As always, Thank You
     
  15. Jaden Jones
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    Jaden Jones Igloo Builder Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I am still not cashing out on my SPX shorts, I think there is still a bit to fall. HODL hard friends...

    Edit, 830am mountain time. Tech stocks already showing recovery this morning, will close all shorts very soon here.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  16. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    I incurred very little drawdown because I hedged the other side by making positive delta bets, many of them worked. So if I took a negative hit on the long SPX put bleed, I made it back in a long call elsewhere.

    Now granted, all those hedges (yesterday) lost $$ and lessened the magnitude of the gains.

    My central bet was a big decline, 10% or more. I accepted the risk that it's normally not a good bet and also somewhat costly.

    The bet also has confirmed my trading style I've outlined on the INSIDE (30+ pages) whereas I much rather be SELLING OPTIONS over BUYING. I've been on the other side of this bet and while it can be harrowing, it is much easier to win on the other side when you have price movement, time, and vol reversion working for you. On a bet such as this, time works against you as does vol reversion, case in point, the start of today is DOWN, but VOL is also down, and that slight disparity has already wiped away 10% of yesterday's gains. (I'm right on the market continuing down, but volatility is retracting, causing the bet to lose value.)

    While the market feels like a pause today, I might buy some more SPX puts, as much as a hate to do so at VIX > 20.
     
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  17. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Cramer just said "now is the time to buy stocks..."

    SELL SELL SELL!
     
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  18. MTEE1985
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    MTEE1985 The world belongs to the risk takers Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Learned my Cramer lesson when I was 17, bought a pharma stock on his recommendation and literally the next day lost 20%
     
  19. JunkBoxJoey_JBJ
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    JunkBoxJoey_JBJ Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER

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    Love reading this thread and don't even do trades or understand all of this!!!

    This is like the question you ask your doctor, soooo if you had "a friend" who went to all cash in their (401k) about 3 weeks ago...

    Thoughts?
     
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  20. Jaden Jones
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    Jaden Jones Igloo Builder Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Probably not a bad idea considering what the Schiller PE and the Buffett indicator are at right now
     
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  21. NanoDrake
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    NanoDrake Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane Speedway Pass

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    If we are lucky.

    I'm looking closely at Turkey and Italy that might be the triggering factors
    While I'm pretty sure Italy won't default - Turkey remains a big question mark for me.
     
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  22. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Today was a continuation downward, a close below the 200DMA for the S&P Futures...

    Tomorrow will be the big TEST of the theory, usually markets around the 200DMA bounce up.

    Fridays tend to move more violently.

    Question is, will it be a violent rebound, or a violent continuation down, aka, Black Friday?
     
    Guest3722A, RayAndré, Xeon and 4 others like this.
  23. Jaden Jones
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    Jaden Jones Igloo Builder Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I closed my shorts, mostly because I thought the reversal was starting. Even though it finished down, I think the reversal will start tomorrow. My prediction is a long doji or inverted hammer candlestick tomorrow....
     
  24. therealmark
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    therealmark Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER

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    I'm holding out one more day to see where things go. Granted I have so little invested I could lose out and be fine.
     
  25. msufan
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    msufan Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    On a side note, interestingly crypto also trended down yesterday evening after the stock market had declined. I had thought perhaps money would move from stocks into crypto in times like these, but that appears to not be the case.

    Tomorrow morning I would expect things to bump upward initially and then what happens next will be critical. I agree with MJ that I expect a wild ride in either direction.
     
    Xeon likes this.

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