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The Coming Recession (2018-2019?)

Discussion in 'Investing/Trading/Cryptocurrency/Altcoins' started by JScott, May 27, 2018.

  1. Carlitos
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    Carlitos Contributor

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    What good is it to hold assets that hold their value if they need to be liquidated in order to get that value in cash. So If the dollar was to get destroyed in this next recession, then we are clearly back at square one.

    Yea wages are really high, a lot of companies are raising their wages because they are having a hard time getting good employers. Also living expenses are really high in NYC the minimum wage right now is $13 and entering 2019 it will be $15. So with payroll going up companies will need to increase their services or product prices which still we are back at square one.

    I’m really trying to figure out or at least get an idea what will this next recession hit hard. I’m also looking to get my first apartment in September I moved down to Atlanta from NYC after I saw how crazy expensive it was getting. Now I’m looking to pursue some sort of Internet business will having a 9-5 job.


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  2. JScott
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    JScott Legendary Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR

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    That's why cash flowing assets are the best assets to hold during inflationary periods.
     
  3. WJK
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    WJK Gold Contributor Speedway Pass

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    We've been a recession here in Alaska since the oil market went from $123 to $35 a barrel around 2015/2016. I live in an "oil patch" area. It's the first recession this state has experienced since the 1970s. We're still in it.

    No one around me here knew how to handle it. Coming from Los Angeles, I had been through several economic cycles since 1976 when I started.

    I knew exactly what to do -- how to handle my low to moderate income, residential rental business. I cleaned house. That housekeeping included several evictions of marginal tenants, slightly lowered my rents and I stabilized my income stream.
    Several people in my little world told me that I crazy, but I didn't listen. It was a rough winter for me, but I did what I had to do.
    My program worked. I came out the other end stronger. I cut my vacancy rate and my collection problems. It's July and I haven't done any evictions so far this year. I have only 1 vacancy that has been available for less than 2 weeks.
    These things can be handled.
     
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  4. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Admin Post
    There isn't. This is just a gut feeling based on market action, global macroeconomics, and geopolitics.

    Just to reiterate... my speculation is just that, speculation. However if someone want to make a bet on it, buying some cheap SPX or NDX puts could yield some huge gains. The time to buy these would be NOW because once the move starts and volatility spikes, you won't be able to buy cheap.

    Just to give you a TASTE on how cheap puts respond during a correction or a major market move, here is how my cheap puts blew up in value during February's big decline.

    Basically 4 cheap SPX puts bought for $450 turned into over $7,800.

    Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 2.37.56 PM.png

    So if volatility retreats back to 11 or 12 (it spiked today due to Turkey drama) it could be the time to buy, although I'm still speculating that the decline will start toward the end of August/early Sept.

    Just airing my speculation, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
     
  5. Hurley32533
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    Hurley32533 New Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    So, what’s everyone’s thoughts on purchasing a business this year with a fixed Sba loan? This business has 1-3 year contracts in place with 30 ish large corporations. The main service being offer to these large companies is recurring parking lot sweeping with additional add on services as needed. In terms of buying environment bear or bullish under these current economic predictions being made in this thread?
     
  6. Hurley32533
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    Hurley32533 New Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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  7. jpn
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    jpn Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    @Hurley32533

    "Guess you have to have a higher worthless status to get a response around here? “Epic fakery” as they say"

    Or people on here have a life and don't owe you sh*t.

    And why on earth would a you let a life changing decision like taking a (presumably) large loan and to buy a business be influenced by people on the internet.

    First of all, MJ and others think there will be a market correction soon as in weeks, a lot of other people in the world tend to think it won't happen for another 2 years. Both of those groups of people could be absolutely wrong.

    Secondly, isn't it smarter to look at the business and run a worst case scenario? A recession is guaranteed to happen at some point in your life time again. How are you going to handle it?

    What if you buy the business and the next day the world economy craters, a 2008 style melt-down. How would your business be impacted? How will your clients be impacted? Will they still need a parking lot sweeping service? And if not, how will you pivot/position to ensure that you provide value in a recession?
     
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  8. c4n
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    c4n Full throttle Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    1. asks a generic question no one can give a good answer to without knowing the details
    2. waits for < 10 hours
    3. gets piss*d off, tags people who have been here longer and have actually provided value to many others as "higher worthless status" and "epic fakery"
    You are off to a great start, welcome! :clap:::thumbsup:
     
  9. Hurley32533
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    Hurley32533 New Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    Now this is what I’m talking about. Definitely aware that no one owes me sh*t so that’s no news flash.

    First off no where was it ever mentioned in the post that a decision to purchase the business was going to be influenced by what anyone on the net had to say.

    Worst case scenario test ✔️ (Solid advice)

    Finally some useful feedback. @jpn thanks for putting me in my place. Sad it took making a snide remark to elicit some member participation however it seems it definitely did the trick.Note to self
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2018 at 10:57 AM
  10. Hurley32533
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    Hurley32533 New Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    @c4n, On behalf of the community we all thank you for the play by play. Sadly you chimed in but left zero value but hey you responded! Appreciate your time champ!
     
  11. JScott
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    JScott Legendary Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR

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    A lot of people aren't checking every post every day. Had you simply been a little bit more patient, you would have gotten a lot more useful responses. You probably won't at this point.

    I was going to reply to your original post, but instead I'm going to choose to provide "zero value" instead. Feel free to whine, cry and call me names if you have to...
     
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  12. Hurley32533
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    Hurley32533 New Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    @JScott , I sincerely appreciate your advice and I will take it into consideration in the future.You provide tons of value in this community as well as others and I’m honored to have received a response from you. No whining,crying or calling names here. Now on to more important things!
     

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