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NOTABLE! The Coming Recession (2018-2019?)

pastemaker

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I wonder if something is brewing behind the curtains.

My online sales have declined by over 50% since September. I thought this was only happening to me because the local economy is going really well at the moment and everyone's reporting good sales.

But after doing some research online, it seems that many other sellers have been experiencing the same drop beginning around the same month

Here's one example(Don't just read OP, other sellers have posted similar declines in September):
Sales Drop since March... this is the END

Btw, my business is totally independent and I don't sell on Amazon as per the above link.

Apparently even big companies like Apple & Energizer(there's more) have reported declining sales in Q4.

Home sales & Home prices have also started decreasing in Q4, some even reporting 7-year low sales.

I totally think we are heading downwards big time from here, what other explanation could there be to this phenomenon? It can't be coincidence.

You can go through this google search for 'low sales' between september and today for some more insight:
low sales - Google Search
 
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JAJT

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I'm not in the markets, so much of this thread has gone over my head, but I recently joined a really killer local real estate group in town that has regularly monthly guest speakers. This month they brought out a guy named Chris Martenson who gave a really, really killer talk on many of the topics you guys are talking about.

I haven't heard of him before I saw him speak - but he's supposedly a multi-degree holding research scientist specializing in economy, energy and the environment. Apparently he gives talks at the UN and to various world leaders and such in addition to running around the world giving talks like the one I attended.

He put together a youtube course (hilariously titled "The Crash Course") that consists of 27 short videos that breaks down the current state of things (as of 2014, anyway) regarding the exponential growth and lack of sustainability in the US economy, energy and the environment. Despite the video series date being 4 years ago, his talk pretty much mirrored the video series, leading me to believe nothing major enough has happened to warrant a change of his opinions / outlooks / videos since then. At least nothing he bothered to mention.

Link to the channel

(Note - I have no association with this guy at all other than I saw him speak and watched the videos and thought they were interesting. He also sells a subscription to his website which is always a potential red flag, although he didn't come off like any typical shill I've ever seen, so take that for whatever it's worth).

They start off pretty boring / basic to get viewers up to speed so that what he says makes sense to a lay person, but they very quickly start digging into some really worrying statistics and facts and correlations about what he believes the future has in store for us (short version: lots and lots of historically unprecedented changes / collapses across all 3 areas).

I fully admit that I don't know enough to tell whether or not what this guy says is accurate or a pessimistic (mis)representation of facts. If I had to give the elevator pitch of my interpretation of him - I'd say it was like a doomsday prepper put down the glue, got sober, went to university, got a couple of scientific degrees, and then dedicated his life to running around the world giving talks on how anyone who isn't taking steps to minimize the impact of the impending doom is in for a pretty bad wake up call.

I've never seen a room full of people more worried, troubled, and confused on what the hell they can do after a presentation before.

As mentioned, I'm pretty ignorant about these things but it seemed like it was right up many of your alley's regarding talks of stock market movements, debt, gdp, inflation, crashes, real estate, etc...
 

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that consists of 27 short videos that breaks down the current state of things (as of 2014, anyway)
If you continually peddle doom-and-gloom, eventually you'll be right.

Then you can claim in your marketing "I called it!"

Myself and @JScott have been calling this in the last few months, not the last few years.

Calling the next World Series winner during spring training is impressive.

Calling a winner that will win "sometime within the next decade", not so much.

Not dismissing what he says or predicts, just pointing out the old "a broken clock is right twice a day".

When people make predictions, they always seem to have open-ended time frames.

Don't say XYZ will go down 10%.

Say XYZ will go down 10% by December 2018.

Everyone does the former, leaving their predictions infinitely plausible. How convenient, eh?
 

socaldude

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My short positions got their A$$ kicked today.

My bias was that stocks would rally into December.

I guess I should have done the oppossite haha.

You need to be a contrarian of a contrarian :rofl:.

But it does seem like the market is either trying to price in the political circus that will ensue or the peak of the business cycle which is approaching.
 

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I'm already on the record to say that it will start at the end of August, drift poorly into September, with October being an absolute sh*t-show -- the confirmation that, holy-sh*t, this is reallllly bad.

And then guess what happens in November?
I'm catching up on this thread, and you're not too far off. One thing I've learned is to never underestimate the powers-that-be and their ability to kick the can down the road in order to buy time.
 

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One of the more popular funds that started shorting stocks is shorting european stocks in particular, and a relatively common trend indicator (according to "MONEY: Master The Game") might have triggered that. The 100-day-average fell below the 200-day-average, so it might be about a simple "the trend is your friend" scenario, not a full blown crash.

Read a book (in German) that summarizes the situation as follows:

the perfect storm is likely in the making, but the timeframe cannot be predicted. I might as well happen 10 years from now.

Things that can contribute to a crash:
- The root causes of the last crisis were never solved
- The Euro is a flawed construct
- Escalation of tensions, maybe war between Saudi Arabia / Iran
- China Trade War: this seems to be about world domination, not just a trade deficit - China and Turkey will be fought until they fall in line regardless of the cost. Assuming that interest rates will rise only moderately might be wrong, because rising rates are key to speeding up the process
Rising rates are a problem because of the rising piles of debt
- North Korea
- Mass Migrations and the resulting tensions
- Russia does not want to surrender all power and China's modern Colonialism is not their idea of a solution. What will they do when they are backed into a corner?

Just shorting is not a great strategy because the effects of monetary policy, stock buybacks after repatriation / tax cuts etc. plus willful blindness and misleading regular corrections can sustain normality for a long time. Using shorts as insurance in a portfolio can make sense.

I keep reading that insiders are selling stocks while they make their companies buy them back.
That could be indicator that the powers that be are preparing for something ... but I have not seen any numbers related to those claims.
I guess all of the modern world might be in for a storm, then.

This depicts what's going on in modern capitalistic countries with free trade. But heavy credit usage drives up prices?

Sometimes I wonder whether to build a bunker or a business...
Or a business that builds bunkers.
 

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I am really interested in your theory.

The claim that the whole Trump presidency is just a "play" is too far out there, I suppose?

Some people speculate that companies are staging the whole presidential term and use storytelling to get people on board with more globalization - by showing how horrible protectionism is - and to make nationalists look bad in general.

If it was true that Trump was simply chosen as the actor that will be blamed for the trade wars, then that would mean that normality has to be uphelp for quite a few rate hikes. It would also mean the hatred is just an act.

Is that too crazy? Are your thoughts centered around more agreeable presuppositions?
Fascinating. Who's speculating?
 

LuckyPup

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So whats Socals' and MJ's recession prediction? When do you guys think it has a 75% chance of happening? 11/18? 12/18? 1/18? 2/18??
I predict financial shenanigans with a slow burn from now until 2020, but the real serious sh*t won't happen until 3Q2019-2Q2020, as the election nears.

I'm no economist, expert or quant, and this is just my gut.
 

Tommo

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If you continually peddle doom-and-gloom, eventually you'll be right.

Then you can claim in your marketing "I called it!"

Myself and @JScott have been calling this in the last few months, not the last few years.

Calling the next World Series winner during spring training is impressive.

Calling a winner that will win "sometime within the next decade", not so much.

Not dismissing what he says or predicts, just pointing out the old "a broken clock is right twice a day".

When people make predictions, they always seem to have open-ended time frames.

Don't say XYZ will go down 10%.

Say XYZ will go down 10% by December 2018.

Everyone does the former, leaving their predictions infinitely plausible. How convenient, eh?
Like Harry Denton does every six months. Nearly bought his book ten years ago. He will be right sometime though as you said.
 

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LuckyPup

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I'm not in the markets, so much of this thread has gone over my head, but I recently joined a really killer local real estate group in town that has regularly monthly guest speakers. This month they brought out a guy named Chris Martenson who gave a really, really killer talk on many of the topics you guys are talking about.

I haven't heard of him before I saw him speak - but he's supposedly a multi-degree holding research scientist specializing in economy, energy and the environment. Apparently he gives talks at the UN and to various world leaders and such in addition to running around the world giving talks like the one I attended.

He put together a youtube course (hilariously titled "The Crash Course") that consists of 27 short videos that breaks down the current state of things (as of 2014, anyway) regarding the exponential growth and lack of sustainability in the US economy, energy and the environment. Despite the video series date being 4 years ago, his talk pretty much mirrored the video series, leading me to believe nothing major enough has happened to warrant a change of his opinions / outlooks / videos since then. At least nothing he bothered to mention.

Link to the channel

(Note - I have no association with this guy at all other than I saw him speak and watched the videos and thought they were interesting. He also sells a subscription to his website which is always a potential red flag, although he didn't come off like any typical shill I've ever seen, so take that for whatever it's worth).

They start off pretty boring / basic to get viewers up to speed so that what he says makes sense to a lay person, but they very quickly start digging into some really worrying statistics and facts and correlations about what he believes the future has in store for us (short version: lots and lots of historically unprecedented changes / collapses across all 3 areas).

I fully admit that I don't know enough to tell whether or not what this guy says is accurate or a pessimistic (mis)representation of facts. If I had to give the elevator pitch of my interpretation of him - I'd say it was like a doomsday prepper put down the glue, got sober, went to university, got a couple of scientific degrees, and then dedicated his life to running around the world giving talks on how anyone who isn't taking steps to minimize the impact of the impending doom is in for a pretty bad wake up call.

I've never seen a room full of people more worried, troubled, and confused on what the hell they can do after a presentation before.

As mentioned, I'm pretty ignorant about these things but it seemed like it was right up many of your alley's regarding talks of stock market movements, debt, gdp, inflation, crashes, real estate, etc...
I'm familiar with Martenson and Adam Taggert, and I don't think they've been around enough to be put in the doomsayer category, at least not like some - Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, etc. Overall, I agree with their espoused goal of becoming more resilient in multiple ways.
 

LuckyPup

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Like Harry Denton does every six months. Nearly bought his book ten years ago. He will be right sometime though as you said.
You read my mind - Harry Dent immediately came to mind when I read that post by MJ.
 

ZF Lee

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Like Harry Denton does every six months. Nearly bought his book ten years ago. He will be right sometime though as you said.
I don't think that I'm wrong to say that you are doomed everywhere and anytime if you toss money without a careful thought into the market!:hilarious:
 

LuckyPup

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I don't think that I'm wrong to say that you are doomed everywhere and anytime if you toss money without a careful thought into the market!:hilarious:
Now there's an accurate prediction! :smile:
 

Andreas Thiel

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Fascinating. Who's speculating?
The most vocal one is a German guy ... so all I could link to is in German and I don't think the book will be translated. Not even his Wikipedia article has been translated.

Dirk Müller - Machtbeben

He runs a website called cashkurs.de.
 

LuckyPup

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The most vocal one is a German guy ... so all I could link to is in German and I don't think the book will be translated. Not even his Wikipedia article has been translated.

Dirk Müller - Machtbeben

He runs a website called cashkurs.de.
Danke schoen. That's the extent of my German, but thanks!
 

MJ DeMarco

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I predict financial shenanigans with a slow burn from now until 2020, but the real serious sh*t won't happen until 3Q2019-2Q2020, as the election nears.

I'm no economist, expert or quant, and this is just my gut.
Sometimes the gut is a better predictor.

As of now, the markets continue to slow bleed lower, led by perennial leaders such as AAPL, GOOG, FB, and AMZN.

I will also remind everyone that the 2008 financial collapse/recession brewed, then accelerated in the fall (Sept/Oct) with significant fomenting in Nov/Dec. Could history be repeating?
 

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What I'm curious is, assuming that the world or the US goes into a recession next year.
What should businesses (specifically B2C ecommerce ones) do?

Would the best plan be to lie low, cut down on ads, cut down on sales targets, just do enough to survive and wait it out for a couple of years?
Or do the opposite? E.g: go all in and big and heavy on driving sales and marketing?
 

jimmeboy

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Would the best plan be to lie low, cut down on ads, cut down on sales targets, just do enough to survive and wait it out for a couple of years?
Or do the opposite? E.g: go all in and big and heavy on driving sales and marketing?
Keep your eye on your ROI and conversion metrics. As long as they continue to make sense and deliver profitable sales, there's no reason to scale back. Let your numbers do the talking!
 

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Rivoli

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So looks like no recession 2018. What’s your guys predictions for 2019? Which quarter do you think most likely to have the recession?
 

MJ DeMarco

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ZF Lee

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What I'm curious is, assuming that the world or the US goes into a recession next year.
What should businesses (specifically B2C ecommerce ones) do?

Would the best plan be to lie low, cut down on ads, cut down on sales targets, just do enough to survive and wait it out for a couple of years?
Or do the opposite? E.g: go all in and big and heavy on driving sales and marketing?
If the ads are on encouraging discretionary spending, yup, maybe cut them down.

My hunch is that the more need-orientated businesses like health, education and protection (financial and physical) will have a boost. Can allocate more marketing dollars to that segement, but not nuclear-sized budgets lol.

Also, any business that helps cut time efficiently, such as Grab and Google, will continue to have traction.

In a recession, everyone will get into a F*cking panic. They'll start blaming and asking why, what, how, when. And they'll do something about it.

They'll go get extra side gigs, buy only necessities or discounted offers, move towards DIY and so on.

Having cash reserves and sufficient cashflow to meet a reduced cost measure certainly help to tide the storm.

I would also be interested to look at which corporate giants out there have no pants on when the tide goes away, so to speak. :p
 

MJ DeMarco

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All indicators are still pointing at the recession happening.

Seems beyond just a trade spat with China.
 

lludwig

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So how would you get yourself ready for an incoming recession?
Some obvious things.
  • Reduce and/or eliminate your debts
  • Increase your cash reserves
  • Reduce your stock allocation
  • Increase your bond positions
  • If you own a business prepare marketing to target the changed the economy.
 
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JScott

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So how would you get yourself ready for an incoming recession?
In the spirit of selling shovels, I just finished a video course on "Recession Proof Real Estate Investing" and will be releasing a book on the topic in the next few weeks...

In other words, I'm shoring up and recession proofing my passive income streams... ;)
 

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