Stock Picks - Post Your Favorites & Why

[kurtyordy]

I trade and have made a lot of money on HES options. The stock moves like crazy.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Rawr]

This week I picked up NSIT, Insight. Time horizon is 6 mos - 1.5 years.

Yahoo 1y Target Est: 27.50

I want to buy, but If I do I am thinking about going all in with tight stop loss.

 

[DustinS]

MJ,
As I said, The stock is overbought short term (extended above Bollinger Bands) but the weekly trend is higher. We can't fight the trend. I have laughed so many times after shorts got crushed on BIDU. They shorted at $200, $220, $230, $250. And I am sure they are doing it again now at $300. That sucker is super extended and I am completely sold out but I wouldn't short it.

Some stocks are staring to form blow-off tops such as PTR.

Just wait for the signal. You don't need 100% of the move, just 60%-80% after a confirmation of a trend change!

Yea china has been going crazy lately. I shorted JRJC today, but I'm kinda nervous about it. It's either going to go really well for me or really bad I think :O

 

[MrDoctor]

ACXM


I don't care what buyout fell through. Acxiom hold the information that business advertisers NEED to be successful. Businesses will pay anything for it....

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[DustinS]

Well I'm gunna play the IPO game. A few days ago I noticed RCH and thought about purchasing it at 6.00$ a share lol. I thought it'd do decent because its a china stock and china is on fire at the moment, but I talked myself out of it. Then 4 days later its at 27$ a share

Anyways my pick for tomorrow is STV, they provide digital TV to china and have 44% market share. Their earnings increased 300% from 05 to 06. If it performs anything like RCH I'll be very happy.

 

[piranha526]

Dustin.,
How'd you do with STV? I flagged them weeks ago when they appreared on the IBD list of IPO's in October.
Closing Trade: 28.00
Day's Range: 26.65 - 39.96

 

[ramy98]

I am currently have a position in BAJ.TO on the Toroto Exchange. They are starting work on a copper mine in Mexico. Production is slated to begin in 2009.

http://www.bajamining.com/

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[DustinS]

Dustin.,
How'd you do with STV? I flagged them weeks ago when they appreared on the IBD list of IPO's in October.
Closing Trade: 28.00
Day's Range: 26.65 - 39.96

Doing great haha! Up 51% today counting after hours

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Doing great haha! Up 51% today counting after hours

STV is rocking! Up $12!

 

[DustinS]

Yea its the best stock I've owned to date. I got out today though at 50$ a share because my trailing stop was triggered well I was at work. I think it has the potential to go much higher, but I also think its due for a large correction so I'm happy with my 75% gain :banana:

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[imirza]

IIG - There is a 10% owner who keeps buying more - millions more + the chart looks very bullish. Lots of upside.

 

[imirza]

On a seasonal basis I also like BWLD. Tends to outperform this time of the year.

 

[piranha526]

VMW crossed $100 today. I grabed shares above $69 last month (some thought I was crazy). The IPO game is hot in 2007. The risk/reward is paying off nicely. Ride a trend until it end - cliche is old but true!

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[MrDoctor]

VMW crossed $100 today. I grabed shares above $69 last month (some thought I was crazy). The IPO game is hot in 2007. The risk/reward is paying off nicely. Ride a trend until it end - cliche is old but true!

Ahaha, I lost money shorting VMware. I have no idea when this one is going to end. This is the hype IPO for 2007 without a doubt. But eventually I will short it successfully!

 

[kidgas]

MrDoctor,
Shorting sounds like a good idea although timing is the catch. Have watched many hot stocks over the years fade like KKD, TZOO, TASR. How do you protect yourself? Stop loss or long call for protection. Just curious. Thanks.

 

[MrDoctor]

MrDoctor,
Shorting sounds like a good idea although timing is the catch. Have watched many hot stocks over the years fade like KKD, TZOO, TASR. How do you protect yourself? Stop loss or long call for protection. Just curious. Thanks.

Stop loss.

VMware is a great company, but their trading price makes no sense. Then again, nothing on W St. makes sense...

You get economist getting down on the economy, throwing out negative outlooks, I short when the negativity rushes the headlines, and then everyone jumps into tech, saying it will be the only sector that will survive the economic hardship. And then I read positive outlooks in the paper this morning. Geesh. When are we becoming a third world country?

M$ (MSFT) is going to make the Zune the next hottest MP3 player. Mark my words. Apple may now have a strong competitor in the market. The Zune 1 wasn't quite so impressive. This new Zune's SOCIAL and CUSTOMIZABLE experience will make it a winner. It's profitable too. I already put myself down for one on Nov 13th. Their new Zune Social interface is going to be KILLER. The Zune market place is dominated by M$ because of corporate powerhouses like BMG SONY striking deals.

Apple is a done deal. MP3 market wise. I still don't understand why anyone would use a Mac computer :smx7:.

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Rawr]

Watching SPG and MRK. Hit by a class action lawsuit on Thurs - may be shorting if there is room to fall.

 

[MrDoctor]

To to check in with everyone...I have as of late shorted YHOO.

Too complicated to explain, but invest at your own risk. It's a risky move, but I believe it will pay off.

 

[hakrjak]

Ahaha, I lost money shorting VMware. I have no idea when this one is going to end. This is the hype IPO for 2007 without a doubt. But eventually I will short it successfully!

I couldn't agree with you more. Any of us that actually work with this product know what a piece of garbage it really is, and how poorly it performs.

You should see how quickly boardrooms full of execs stop asking you to implement VMWare as soon as they see the results of it in testing. Random crashes, lockups, disconnects, slow performances, the list goes on.

Cheers,

- Hakrjak

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[Rawr]

I am in GMCR - just got upgraded and IMO the potential is good.

 

[imirza]

My top stock pick - All the financial companies SHORT . MER LEH GS UBS C WM WFC JPM BAC CS . All these guys have 'crap' on their balance sheets which will continue to be exposed in the months ahead. There is talk that these financial companies will write off up to $280 billion or even $450 billion. I think the eventual figure will be well over
$1 trillion. As property values continue to fall these guys end up having to write off more. I don't believe we are anywhere near the bottom of the real estate market.

 

[randallg99]

great minds....

I am long SKF again

 

Dislike ads? Remove them and support the forum: Subscribe to Fastlane Insiders.

[randallg99]

As property values continue to fall these guys end up having to write off more. I don't believe we are anywhere near the bottom of the real estate market.

a lot of media attention has been focused on mortgages at the expense of home equity loans and derivatives. a shit storm is brewing, imo.

Equity loans next problem: NYT --

Equity Loans as Next Round in Credit Crisis
E

By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: March 27, 2008

Little by little, millions of Americans surrendered equity in their homes in recent years. Lulled by good times, they borrowed — sometimes heavily — against the roofs over their heads.

Now the bill is coming due. As the housing market spirals downward, home equity loans, which turn home sweet home into cash sweet cash, are becoming the next flash point in the mortgage crisis.

Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.

To get it, many lenders are taking the extraordinary step of preventing some people from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages unless they pay off all or part of their home equity loans first. In the past, when home prices were not falling, lenders did not resort to these measures.

Such tactics are impeding efforts by policy makers to help struggling homeowners get easier terms on their mortgages and stem the rising tide of foreclosures. But at a time when each day seems to bring more bad news for the financial industry, lenders defend the hard-nosed maneuvers as a way to keep their own losses from deepening.

It is a remarkable turnabout for the many Americans who have come to regard a home as an A.T.M. with three bedrooms and 1.5 baths. When times were good, they borrowed against their homes to pay for all sorts of things, from new cars to college educations to a home theater.

Lenders also encouraged many aspiring homeowners to take out not one but two mortgages simultaneously — ordinary ones plus “piggyback†loans — to avoid putting any cash down.

The result is a nation that only half-owns its homes. While homeownership climbed to record heights in recent years, home equity — the value of the properties minus the mortgages against them — has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the Federal Reserve.

Lenders holding first mortgages get first dibs on borrowers’ cash or on the homes should people fall behind on their payments. Banks that made home equity loans are second in line. This arrangement sometimes pits one lender against another.

When borrowers default on their mortgages, lenders foreclose and sell the homes to recoup their money. But when homes sell for less than the value of their mortgages and home equity loans — a situation known as a short sale — lenders with first liens must be compensated fully before holders of second or third liens get a dime.

In places like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where home prices have fallen significantly, second-lien holders can be left with little or nothing once first mortgages are paid.

In December, 5.7 percent of home equity lines of credit were delinquent or in default, up from 4.5 percent in 2006, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

Lenders and investors who hold home equity loans are not giving up easily, however. Instead, they are opposing short sales. And some banks holding second liens are also opposing refinancings for first mortgages, a little-used power they have under the law, in an effort to force borrowers to pay down their loans.

“Acknowledging a loss is the most difficult thing to do,†said Micheal Thompson, the executive director of the Iowa Mediation Service, which has been working with delinquent borrowers and lenders. “You have to deal with the reality of what you are facing today.â€

While he has been able to strike some deals, Mr. Thompson said that many mortgage companies he talks with refuse to compromise. Holders of second mortgages often agree to short sales and other changes only if first-lien holders pay them a small sum, say $10,000, or 10 percent, on a $100,000 debt.

Disagreements arise when the first and second liens are held by different banks or investors. If one lender holds both debts, it is in their interest to find a solution.

When deals cannot be worked out, second-lien holders can pursue the outstanding balance even after foreclosure, sometimes through collection agencies. The soured home equity debts can linger on credit records and make it harder for people to borrow in the future.

Experts say it is in everyone’s interest to settle these loans, but doing so is not always easy. Consider Randy and Dawn McLain of Phoenix. The couple decided to sell their home after falling behind on their first mortgage from Chase and a home equity line of credit from CitiFinancial last year, after Randy McLain retired because of a back injury. The couple owed $370,000 in total.

After three months, the couple found a buyer willing to pay about $300,000 for their home — a figure representing an 18 percent decline in the value of their home since January 2007, when they took out their home equity credit line. (Single-family home prices in Phoenix have fallen about 18 percent since the summer of 2006, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index.)

CitiFinancial, which was owed $95,500, rejected the offer because it would have paid off the first mortgage in full but would have left it with a mere $1,000, after fees and closing costs, on the credit line. The real estate agents who worked on the sale say that deal is still better than the one the lender would get if the home was foreclosed on and sold at an auction in a few months.

“If it goes into foreclosure, which it is very likely to do anyway, you wouldn’t get anything,†said J. D. Dougherty, a real estate agent who represented the buyer on the transaction.

Mark Rodgers, a spokesman for CitiFinancial, declined to comment on the McLains’ situation, citing privacy considerations.

“We strive to find solutions that are acceptable to the various parties involved,†he said but two lenders can “value the property differently.â€

Other lenders like National City, the bank based in Cleveland, have blocked homeowners from refinancing first mortgages unless the borrowers pay off the second lien held by the bank first. But such tactics carry significant risk, said Michael Youngblood, a portfolio manager and analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, the securities firm. “It might also impel the borrower to file for bankruptcy,†and a judge could write down the value of the second mortgage, he said.

A spokeswoman for National City, Kristen Baird Adams, said the policy applied only to home equity loans originated by mortgage brokers.

Underscoring the difficulties likely to arise from home equity loans, a Democratic proposal in Congress to refinance troubled mortgages and provide them with government backing specifically excludes second liens. Lenders holding a second lien would be required to write off their debts before the first loan could be refinanced. That could leave out a significant number of loans, analysts say.

People with weak, or subprime, credit could be hurt the most. More than a third of all subprime loans made in 2006 had associated second-lien debt, up from 17 percent in 2000, according to Credit Suisse. And many people added second loans after taking out first mortgages, so it is impossible to say for certain how many homeowners have multiple liens on their properties.

“This is turning out to be a real impediment to solving this problem,â said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, “at least, solving it quickly.â€

 

[imirza]

Good post Randall ! Rep + +

And guess who holds a ton of HELOCs in California and Arizona ? None other then Washington Mutual WM . I would be surprised if WM is still left standing by December. Countrywide is in this mess too but atleast Bank of America has their back ( or maybe not).

Here is another tornado that is going to strike the market hard in the months ahead.



The Government and the market are trying to boil this down to a ’sub-prime’ thing, especially with all constant talk of ‘resets’. But sub-prime loans were only a small piece of the mortgage mess. And sub-prime loans are not the only ones with resets. What we are experiencing should be called ‘The Mortgage Meltdown’ because many different exotic loan types are imploding currently belonging to what lenders considered ‘qualified’ or ‘prime’ borrowers. This will continue to worsen over the next few of years. When ‘prime’ loans begin to explode to a degree large enough to catch national attention, the ratings agencies will jump on board and we will have ‘Round 2′. It is not that far away.
Since 2003, when lending first started becoming extremely lax, a small percentage of the loans were true sub-prime fixed or arms. But sub-prime is what is being focused upon to draw attention away from the fact the lenders and Wall Street banks made all loans too easy to attain for everyone. They can explain away the reason sub-prime loans are imploding due to the weakness of the borrower.
How will they explain foreclosures in wealthy cities across the nation involving borrowers with 750 scores when their loan adjusts higher or terms change overnight because they reached their maximum negative potential on a neg-am Pay Option ARM for instance?


Read the full article here