Stock Picks - Post Your Favorites & Why

[kidgas]

In addition to my picks, I will post why I am picking them...
I think the fed has created too much liquidity as have the other central banks around the world and that the purchasing power of paper currency is declining, thus I think the real assets are useful to own to provide some protection against inflation. With the continued growth of India and China as well as strength in Europe, demand for commodities should continue to outpace supply for several more years.

With these themes in mind, this is what I own...
GG (gold miner), PAAS (silver miner), BTU (coal), CHK (natural gas)...I have owned and would like to own again HAL (oil services). I would also consider MRO, VLO, SLB. I just don't have enough money to own everything I would like.

I do splash a little tech in my portfolio as well. I own STX and WDC since I feel that increasing cell phone usage and entrance of many Indian and Chinese into the middle class will create demand for chips and memory. I also own YHOO as a turnaround type play. Anticipating that over the next several quarters, they can make some headway with the new Panama system. May not be the smartest thing to own.

Did own DRYS and AKS until Friday. Sold them off to move funds around.

I don't know that I would short many stocks currently with all the liquidity. It seems like there is some angst in the market, but the fall/winter months are coming which typically are strong. October gets a lot of bad press but September is historically the worst month.
Of course, I have no idea what will happen with the market. That is why I have puts on all my stocks and sell some calls to create collars. Just looking for slow and steady gains and adding to positions when they pull back.

 

[biophase]

NMX - long on options at the moment

 

[bflbob]

I'm also liking my GME (Gamestop) today.

Beating earnings, it is up over 11% for the day.

This is a carry-over from ELBO (Electronics Boutique) which was bought-out by GME.
I've already pulled my original investment out, and I'm riding on profits only here.:thankyousign:

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Post your stock picks ... what are you buying? Selling? Holding? Shorting?

 

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[randallg99]

For me, PVX (Provident Energy Trust) is a CRT that pays a hefty dividend (11%+) and recently took a dive to present a buying opportunity.

note the 11% is not entirely dividend as some of it is ROC (if my memory serves correctly) and the entire distribution (not dividend) is taxed at 15% foreign witholding (if you are US citizen)... the 15% is credited at year end tax filing if you buy outside of any tax deferred vehicle. But if the purchase is made in your IRA, you can kiss the 15% good bye and the 11% distribution is more like 9.4%+/-

be careful... when I owned PVX, it had an extremely dangerous level of low reserves. Unless they made good acquisitions, they are on a road to depletion much faster than most. Also, recently passed legislation in Canada put the nail in CRTs coffin as CRTs are becoming disbanded. Govt was getting frustrated many of the trusts were forming to avoid taxes, but it turns out now the companies are seeking alternatives and are basically packing up and moving out of Canada... the political scene is wreaking havoc now so anything can change between now and enactment.

A lot of these Canadian companies are selling themselves to get bought by foreign companies to restructure (into MLPs in USA, for example) ... I dont know if this is what PVX plans to do... this may help or may not....

Today I bought AHR and have been buying MVO. Both have tax ramifications with their dividends and their ownerships so dd is required.

BTW, thank you for your efforts on this board - it is a big improvement over the RDPD forum (where i just griped about too many useless posts)

 

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[kimberland]

My fun portfolio consists of;

Arctic Glacier
AG.UN
Bought: $10.49 (incl comm)
Market: $13.74
Yield: 10.5%
Why I bought it:
Bought it because it was a trust acquiring other ice companies.
First couple quarters after an acquisition, returns are lousy (severance payouts, etc.)
combine that with seasonal (I bought it in winter)
and unit holders preferring a payout over acquisitions
and a rising Cdn $ vs holdings in the U.S.
and I was seeing value.
Why I'm still holding it:
Cdn$ still high.
A sweet distribution.
Still acquiring and rumors that AG will be taken out.

Bayou Bend Pete
BBP
Bought: $2.32
Market: $1.66
Yield: 0%
Why I bought it:
Bought it a few weeks ago.
Complete spec play.
Not many analysts covering it.
Ramping up the wells, about ready to produce.
Why I'm still holding it:
Recent purchase.
Waiting for the "big find"

Equinox Minerals
EQN
Bought: $0.96
Market: $3.82
Yield: 0%
Why I bought it:
Honestly, I heard they hired a dedicated marketing person.
Why would a small player with no analysts covering them need a marketing person?
Investigated and liked that everyone and their mother was jumping on board to team up with the company.
Again why?
Why I'm still holding it:
I've taken my money off the table already.
Waiting for the "big news."

Keystone North America
KNA-UN
Bought: $6.55
Market: $8.90
Yield: 15.3%
Why I bought it:
Bought this for my fun portfolio during the Nov 1st correction.
Love the business (cemetaries, funeral homes).
Love their niche market (mid sized towns).
Price hurt by the rising Cdn $ (earnings in U.S.)
Why I'm still holding it:
Cdn $ still hurting earnings.
Growth business.
Great yield.

Lakeview Hotel REIT
LHR.UN
Bought: $5.08
Market: $4.96
Yield: 8.60%
Why I bought it:
Purchased this last month.
Was looking for a REIT.
Prices depressed 'cause of the housing slowdown
yet this is a hotel.
Western Canada focus (impossible to find hotel rooms there)
Why I'm still holding it:
Recent purchase.

Please note:
This is not a reco of any of these stocks.
(This is my fun portfolio where I buy all the crazy finds
my financial advisor doesn't agree on)
Do your own research

: )

 

[randallg99]

However, existing trusts will likely stay trusts until 2011.
That means a few more years of status quo
which is more than can be said for any other structure
(which could change at any minute).

Firms are not packing up and leaving Canada.
They're getting bought out by foreign investors
because they're bargains.
: )

Hey Kimberland-
you are absolutely correct about the trusts staying intact until 2011, and a few years of current scenario is fine as long as a company like PVX can continue acquiring assets to replace the depleted ones. Long term though, the Canadian Trusts are nowhere nearly the safe income producing haven they once were thus their bargain prices and now the big money has pulled out due to the uncertainty of whether or not marginal companies will either reform a different entity or simply be bought out by foreign equity (which is probably best case scenario). Dont forget, many companies that thrived under CRT laws will probably not perform nearly as well under any different type of corporate entity....

I dont believe they are packing up and leaving Canada now... their economy is too hot with the demand for natural resources in the past several years have been unbelievable.

The Halloween massacre (as I call it) drove a stake right through the heart of my portfolio when Flaherty pulled that stunt right from under us. I dont know much about Canadian politics, but at least now I know anything can happen anywhere and at anytime. boo politics.issed:

 

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[biophase]

FMN has been one my favorite dividend paying stocks (its a closed-end fund) for years. It's priced at $14 and it pays around $0.83/share per year. It pays out monthly and is 100% tax free. Try to buy it under $14 and just divident reinvestment monthly.

 

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[kidgas]

I agree with you on that.

 

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[kidgas]

Looks like AKS is up quite a bit today. Near term, I think there will be lots of volatility in the market.

 

[Rawr]

I bought LVS at 80 and sold off yesterday at 97. To shed some light on this stock - it was down to 70's for two months then in a week and a half climbed to 108 and now is down to 94 in 4 days.

Mike, what is the technical side telling right now? I follow the news and think (hope) this is the buy time and if I am buying I am throwing most of my money in. What's everyone's take?

I am back in this one at 94 and it is now at 99.25. I will hold till 100 then sell off, this one has a tendency to jump up and down over a week's period of time.

 

[TheBoyPlunger]

Looks like AKS is up quite a bit today. Near term, I think there will be lots of volatility in the market.

I went short on AKS today around 35.20. We'll see how it works out.

Took a long position after some time - CBST. Should have waited for this a week more but didn't want to miss a breakout :smx4:


Net 66% short and 33% long.

 

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[1320Trader]

VMW just wont stop.....and I dont own any :bgh: :smx4:

 

[MrDoctor]

Hmm AAPL could get a decent jump the day of the Ipod release, but the way the markets heading right now I'd wait a few more days to hop on that boat! I do like the plan though :smxF:

I'm glad I didn't wait :icon_fU:.

 

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[MrDoctor]

MrDoctor, what do you base your trading on? I mean -

1. How did you pick on AAPL?
2. Do you base, atleast a part of your trading, on news?

And more questions to follow

:thankyousign:

I base all of my trading on news. The market, a stock, or whatever else is affected by NEWS. News or speculation will either send a market, stock, etc up or down. We are still not sure about the fed cutting the rate yet again in September. Articles are released everyday pointing to yes and pointing to no...and it has been a rollercoaster ride, Dow up, Dow down.

Just as snowbank asked how Daytrading is related to poker...you have to know how your investors are going to react. Apple trading at a low $125.00 with the news of the new iPod on the way? This was a no-brainer investment. Have you seen how Apple reacts to RUMORS? I bought Apple at $89.00 when there was a RUMOR about the iPhone being release 1 month later than expected . Apple does not delay products, never :smxF:. And beside, what did it matter? I knew the phone was marked up 50% and it didn't matter when the thing released. The more technical investor would have stayed on the sidelines, but the MM's were all over this .

Oh, and yeah, we're still not sure about the new iPod releasing on the 5th . But, it is pretty much a dead giveaway. Ipod shipments decreasing, new ipods release in September, the event flyer is a hint at the new iPod interface..."the music goes on."

 

[randallg99]

As property values continue to fall these guys end up having to write off more. I don't believe we are anywhere near the bottom of the real estate market.

a lot of media attention has been focused on mortgages at the expense of home equity loans and derivatives. a shit storm is brewing, imo.

Equity loans next problem: NYT --

Equity Loans as Next Round in Credit Crisis
E

By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: March 27, 2008

Little by little, millions of Americans surrendered equity in their homes in recent years. Lulled by good times, they borrowed — sometimes heavily — against the roofs over their heads.

Now the bill is coming due. As the housing market spirals downward, home equity loans, which turn home sweet home into cash sweet cash, are becoming the next flash point in the mortgage crisis.

Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.

To get it, many lenders are taking the extraordinary step of preventing some people from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages unless they pay off all or part of their home equity loans first. In the past, when home prices were not falling, lenders did not resort to these measures.

Such tactics are impeding efforts by policy makers to help struggling homeowners get easier terms on their mortgages and stem the rising tide of foreclosures. But at a time when each day seems to bring more bad news for the financial industry, lenders defend the hard-nosed maneuvers as a way to keep their own losses from deepening.

It is a remarkable turnabout for the many Americans who have come to regard a home as an A.T.M. with three bedrooms and 1.5 baths. When times were good, they borrowed against their homes to pay for all sorts of things, from new cars to college educations to a home theater.

Lenders also encouraged many aspiring homeowners to take out not one but two mortgages simultaneously — ordinary ones plus “piggyback†loans — to avoid putting any cash down.

The result is a nation that only half-owns its homes. While homeownership climbed to record heights in recent years, home equity — the value of the properties minus the mortgages against them — has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the Federal Reserve.

Lenders holding first mortgages get first dibs on borrowers’ cash or on the homes should people fall behind on their payments. Banks that made home equity loans are second in line. This arrangement sometimes pits one lender against another.

When borrowers default on their mortgages, lenders foreclose and sell the homes to recoup their money. But when homes sell for less than the value of their mortgages and home equity loans — a situation known as a short sale — lenders with first liens must be compensated fully before holders of second or third liens get a dime.

In places like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where home prices have fallen significantly, second-lien holders can be left with little or nothing once first mortgages are paid.

In December, 5.7 percent of home equity lines of credit were delinquent or in default, up from 4.5 percent in 2006, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

Lenders and investors who hold home equity loans are not giving up easily, however. Instead, they are opposing short sales. And some banks holding second liens are also opposing refinancings for first mortgages, a little-used power they have under the law, in an effort to force borrowers to pay down their loans.

“Acknowledging a loss is the most difficult thing to do,†said Micheal Thompson, the executive director of the Iowa Mediation Service, which has been working with delinquent borrowers and lenders. “You have to deal with the reality of what you are facing today.â€

While he has been able to strike some deals, Mr. Thompson said that many mortgage companies he talks with refuse to compromise. Holders of second mortgages often agree to short sales and other changes only if first-lien holders pay them a small sum, say $10,000, or 10 percent, on a $100,000 debt.

Disagreements arise when the first and second liens are held by different banks or investors. If one lender holds both debts, it is in their interest to find a solution.

When deals cannot be worked out, second-lien holders can pursue the outstanding balance even after foreclosure, sometimes through collection agencies. The soured home equity debts can linger on credit records and make it harder for people to borrow in the future.

Experts say it is in everyone’s interest to settle these loans, but doing so is not always easy. Consider Randy and Dawn McLain of Phoenix. The couple decided to sell their home after falling behind on their first mortgage from Chase and a home equity line of credit from CitiFinancial last year, after Randy McLain retired because of a back injury. The couple owed $370,000 in total.

After three months, the couple found a buyer willing to pay about $300,000 for their home — a figure representing an 18 percent decline in the value of their home since January 2007, when they took out their home equity credit line. (Single-family home prices in Phoenix have fallen about 18 percent since the summer of 2006, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index.)

CitiFinancial, which was owed $95,500, rejected the offer because it would have paid off the first mortgage in full but would have left it with a mere $1,000, after fees and closing costs, on the credit line. The real estate agents who worked on the sale say that deal is still better than the one the lender would get if the home was foreclosed on and sold at an auction in a few months.

“If it goes into foreclosure, which it is very likely to do anyway, you wouldn’t get anything,†said J. D. Dougherty, a real estate agent who represented the buyer on the transaction.

Mark Rodgers, a spokesman for CitiFinancial, declined to comment on the McLains’ situation, citing privacy considerations.

“We strive to find solutions that are acceptable to the various parties involved,†he said but two lenders can “value the property differently.â€

Other lenders like National City, the bank based in Cleveland, have blocked homeowners from refinancing first mortgages unless the borrowers pay off the second lien held by the bank first. But such tactics carry significant risk, said Michael Youngblood, a portfolio manager and analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, the securities firm. “It might also impel the borrower to file for bankruptcy,†and a judge could write down the value of the second mortgage, he said.

A spokeswoman for National City, Kristen Baird Adams, said the policy applied only to home equity loans originated by mortgage brokers.

Underscoring the difficulties likely to arise from home equity loans, a Democratic proposal in Congress to refinance troubled mortgages and provide them with government backing specifically excludes second liens. Lenders holding a second lien would be required to write off their debts before the first loan could be refinanced. That could leave out a significant number of loans, analysts say.

People with weak, or subprime, credit could be hurt the most. More than a third of all subprime loans made in 2006 had associated second-lien debt, up from 17 percent in 2000, according to Credit Suisse. And many people added second loans after taking out first mortgages, so it is impossible to say for certain how many homeowners have multiple liens on their properties.

“This is turning out to be a real impediment to solving this problem,â said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, “at least, solving it quickly.â€

 

[MJ DeMarco]

For me, PVX (Provident Energy Trust) is a CRT that pays a hefty dividend (11%+) and recently took a dive to present a buying opportunity.

 

[kimberland]

Also, recently passed legislation in Canada put the nail in CRTs coffin as CRTs are becoming disbanded. Govt was getting frustrated many of the trusts were forming to avoid taxes, but it turns out now the companies are seeking alternatives and are basically packing up and moving out of Canada... the political scene is wreaking havoc now so anything can change between now and enactment.

The change with the income trust structure
was starting in 2011, taxes will apply.
When this was announced (Oct 31st),
there was a correction in the market,
accounting for this change
(discounting future cash flows).
(Many of us bought then as the market can be counted on to over correct)

Combined with a cut in corporate taxes,
there's no longer an incentive for conversion into the trust structure
(for new trusts, the taxes apply immediately).

However, existing trusts will likely stay trusts until 2011.
That means a few more years of status quo
which is more than can be said for any other structure
(which could change at any minute).

Firms are not packing up and leaving Canada.
They're getting bought out by foreign investors
because they're bargains.
Hhhmmm... should I avoid buying stocks because they're bargains?
Or because someone might come along and pay a premium to the market for them?

: )

 

[Rawr]

I bought LVS at 80 and sold off yesterday at 97. To shed some light on this stock - it was down to 70's for two months then in a week and a half climbed to 108 and now is down to 94 in 4 days.

Mike, what is the technical side telling right now? I follow the news and think (hope) this is the buy time and if I am buying I am throwing most of my money in. What's everyone's take?

 

[randallg99]

Re: Soros` Favorites & Why

cant answer why Soros bought these ....

WASHINGTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros reported in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that his fund has taken on stakes in U.S. oil major ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Soros Fund Management reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission its holdings as of June 30, which included 432,243 shares in ConocoPhillips and 407,474 shares in Freeport-McMoRan.

The overall value of Soros' fund increased to $3.15 billion from $2.48 billion as of March 31.

The filing revealed that Soros had also taken on a 508,515 share stake in Tyco International Ltd. (TYC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which recently completed its spinoffs, and a 539,016 share stake in Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Further, the fund disclosed a 2.03-million share stake in biotechnology company PDL Biopharma Inc. (PDLI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and a 1.02-million share stake in contract oil and gas driller Pride International Inc. (PDE.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

 

[TheBoyPlunger]

Did own DRYS and AKS until Friday. Sold them off to move funds around.

Kidgas, I saw ur post on AKS on the RD Forum(Hot stock post) and shorted it promptly. Covered for a small profit and shorted again later.

:icon_super:

 

[kidgas]

Kidgas, I saw ur post on AKS on the RD Forum(Hot stock post) and shorted it promptly. Covered for a small profit and shorted again later.

:icon_super:

Hope the short works out for you. I got out at a 6% gain over 3.5 months. That was after another 6% gain over 3 weeks. The liquidity crunch knocked the sails out of many stocks. AKS, I feel, was a combination play on commodities and takeover speculation. The takeover may be out of play for awhile now, but it is impossible to predict.

I am, however, back into DRYS. You can follow its progress in the stock collar thread here on this forum.

 

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[bflbob]

For today, it is ARK -- Blackrock Senior High Income
Bought it yesterday at $4.79.
Today it is up to $5.60 for a 16% 1-day gain.:banana:

Why? Because it fit my buying pattern.
I'll hold until it hits $10.27. (I bought originally at $6.30 a couple years ago.)
I'll buy more if it drops to $3.09.
Kicks out a nice little $.05/share monthly payout too.

 

[TheBoyPlunger]

I covered half my shorts yesterday at 28.3. Was kicking myself for not having covered completely. Either way, the nearest support is at 26 and the 50EMA is at 26.4. Moreover it should revisit yesterday's lows, technically speaking ;-)

 

[bflbob]

Today it is my NFLD.

This has been flat for me for a long time, but is up 30% right now (40% at the peak) for the day.

Unfortunately, it needs to climb quite a bit before I can sell.

 

[kidgas]

The next one I am watching is NVDA.

 

[MrDoctor]

VMW just wont stop.....and I dont own any :bgh: :smx4:

VMware is complete GARBAGE. Do you remember in 2000 when every tech company was over traded? These companies had no earnings and were trading HUGE! I am shorting VMWare, and it is going to make me a hefty profit. Although, I may add, they are going to post good profit in the 4th quarter. After that in when you short or if you feel risky, buy some put options. They have been in talks with many companies ala Dell, google, etc.

Here is why I chimed on this post. For those that do not know my style, I am a day trader. So, anything I recommend is a pump and dump or all speculation (mostly.)

Word is that a USA storage company (tech, hard drives, etc) is going to be acquired by an unnamed, but big Chinese company. And I may add that this is going to be a huge CASH buyout? I have come to the conclusion that the only possible target company is.......

WDC-- Western Digital.

There are some grins in Washington, they are concerned about the deal. It has to be approved...

I am invested in WDC. Since the rumor, it has gone up slightly. Now, this is not a sure thing, but either way it goes, WDC is a kick-a$$ company to own. You cannot lose much and the possibility of the deal going through is great. There is more positive in this move than negative.

 

[DustinS]

Shorted BCSI this morning and hoping to ride it down for a while. I don't forsee another rally anytime soon unless the FED interferes again.

 

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[MrDoctor]

Shorted BCSI this morning and hoping to ride it down for a while. I don't forsee another rally anytime soon unless the FED interferes again.

The rates aren't going anywhere. THANK YOU BUSH . I am not a Bush admin supporter, but I believe what the goverment and fed is doing (which is absolutley nothing) is the right thing to do.

On a side note, buy AAPL RIGHT NOW. On September 5th they will be releasing the new iPod. Buy it now, sell on top, short it down, and enjoy a nice cigar afterwards :coolgleamA:. Investors need another cult stock to sink money into during this time. VMWARE is HYPE. Apple is HYPE. HYPE is GOOD.

 

[DustinS]

Hmm AAPL could get a decent jump the day of the Ipod release, but the way the markets heading right now I'd wait a few more days to hop on that boat! I do like the plan though :smxF: