HOT TOPIC Stock Picks - Post Your Favorites & Why

[MJ DeMarco]

Post your stock picks ... what are you buying? Selling? Holding? Shorting?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

For me, PVX (Provident Energy Trust) is a CRT that pays a hefty dividend (11%+) and recently took a dive to present a buying opportunity.

 

[kidgas]

In addition to my picks, I will post why I am picking them...
I think the fed has created too much liquidity as have the other central banks around the world and that the purchasing power of paper currency is declining, thus I think the real assets are useful to own to provide some protection against inflation. With the continued growth of India and China as well as strength in Europe, demand for commodities should continue to outpace supply for several more years.

With these themes in mind, this is what I own...
GG (gold miner), PAAS (silver miner), BTU (coal), CHK (natural gas)...I have owned and would like to own again HAL (oil services). I would also consider MRO, VLO, SLB. I just don't have enough money to own everything I would like.

I do splash a little tech in my portfolio as well. I own STX and WDC since I feel that increasing cell phone usage and entrance of many Indian and Chinese into the middle class will create demand for chips and memory. I also own YHOO as a turnaround type play. Anticipating that over the next several quarters, they can make some headway with the new Panama system. May not be the smartest thing to own.

Did own DRYS and AKS until Friday. Sold them off to move funds around.

I don't know that I would short many stocks currently with all the liquidity. It seems like there is some angst in the market, but the fall/winter months are coming which typically are strong. October gets a lot of bad press but September is historically the worst month.
Of course, I have no idea what will happen with the market. That is why I have puts on all my stocks and sell some calls to create collars. Just looking for slow and steady gains and adding to positions when they pull back.

 

[randallg99]

For me, PVX (Provident Energy Trust) is a CRT that pays a hefty dividend (11%+) and recently took a dive to present a buying opportunity.

note the 11% is not entirely dividend as some of it is ROC (if my memory serves correctly) and the entire distribution (not dividend) is taxed at 15% foreign witholding (if you are US citizen)... the 15% is credited at year end tax filing if you buy outside of any tax deferred vehicle. But if the purchase is made in your IRA, you can kiss the 15% good bye and the 11% distribution is more like 9.4%+/-

be careful... when I owned PVX, it had an extremely dangerous level of low reserves. Unless they made good acquisitions, they are on a road to depletion much faster than most. Also, recently passed legislation in Canada put the nail in CRTs coffin as CRTs are becoming disbanded. Govt was getting frustrated many of the trusts were forming to avoid taxes, but it turns out now the companies are seeking alternatives and are basically packing up and moving out of Canada... the political scene is wreaking havoc now so anything can change between now and enactment.

A lot of these Canadian companies are selling themselves to get bought by foreign companies to restructure (into MLPs in USA, for example) ... I dont know if this is what PVX plans to do... this may help or may not....

Today I bought AHR and have been buying MVO. Both have tax ramifications with their dividends and their ownerships so dd is required.

BTW, thank you for your efforts on this board - it is a big improvement over the RDPD forum (where i just griped about too many useless posts)

 

[kimberland]

Also, recently passed legislation in Canada put the nail in CRTs coffin as CRTs are becoming disbanded. Govt was getting frustrated many of the trusts were forming to avoid taxes, but it turns out now the companies are seeking alternatives and are basically packing up and moving out of Canada... the political scene is wreaking havoc now so anything can change between now and enactment.

The change with the income trust structure
was starting in 2011, taxes will apply.
When this was announced (Oct 31st),
there was a correction in the market,
accounting for this change
(discounting future cash flows).
(Many of us bought then as the market can be counted on to over correct)

Combined with a cut in corporate taxes,
there's no longer an incentive for conversion into the trust structure
(for new trusts, the taxes apply immediately).

However, existing trusts will likely stay trusts until 2011.
That means a few more years of status quo
which is more than can be said for any other structure
(which could change at any minute).

Firms are not packing up and leaving Canada.
They're getting bought out by foreign investors
because they're bargains.
Hhhmmm... should I avoid buying stocks because they're bargains?
Or because someone might come along and pay a premium to the market for them?

: )

 

[kimberland]

My fun portfolio consists of;

Arctic Glacier
AG.UN
Bought: $10.49 (incl comm)
Market: $13.74
Yield: 10.5%
Why I bought it:
Bought it because it was a trust acquiring other ice companies.
First couple quarters after an acquisition, returns are lousy (severance payouts, etc.)
combine that with seasonal (I bought it in winter)
and unit holders preferring a payout over acquisitions
and a rising Cdn $ vs holdings in the U.S.
and I was seeing value.
Why I'm still holding it:
Cdn$ still high.
A sweet distribution.
Still acquiring and rumors that AG will be taken out.

Bayou Bend Pete
BBP
Bought: $2.32
Market: $1.66
Yield: 0%
Why I bought it:
Bought it a few weeks ago.
Complete spec play.
Not many analysts covering it.
Ramping up the wells, about ready to produce.
Why I'm still holding it:
Recent purchase.
Waiting for the "big find"

Equinox Minerals
EQN
Bought: $0.96
Market: $3.82
Yield: 0%
Why I bought it:
Honestly, I heard they hired a dedicated marketing person.
Why would a small player with no analysts covering them need a marketing person?
Investigated and liked that everyone and their mother was jumping on board to team up with the company.
Again why?
Why I'm still holding it:
I've taken my money off the table already.
Waiting for the "big news."

Keystone North America
KNA-UN
Bought: $6.55
Market: $8.90
Yield: 15.3%
Why I bought it:
Bought this for my fun portfolio during the Nov 1st correction.
Love the business (cemetaries, funeral homes).
Love their niche market (mid sized towns).
Price hurt by the rising Cdn $ (earnings in U.S.)
Why I'm still holding it:
Cdn $ still hurting earnings.
Growth business.
Great yield.

Lakeview Hotel REIT
LHR.UN
Bought: $5.08
Market: $4.96
Yield: 8.60%
Why I bought it:
Purchased this last month.
Was looking for a REIT.
Prices depressed 'cause of the housing slowdown
yet this is a hotel.
Western Canada focus (impossible to find hotel rooms there)
Why I'm still holding it:
Recent purchase.

Please note:
This is not a reco of any of these stocks.
(This is my fun portfolio where I buy all the crazy finds
my financial advisor doesn't agree on)
Do your own research

: )

 

[randallg99]

However, existing trusts will likely stay trusts until 2011.
That means a few more years of status quo
which is more than can be said for any other structure
(which could change at any minute).

Firms are not packing up and leaving Canada.
They're getting bought out by foreign investors
because they're bargains.
: )

Hey Kimberland-
you are absolutely correct about the trusts staying intact until 2011, and a few years of current scenario is fine as long as a company like PVX can continue acquiring assets to replace the depleted ones. Long term though, the Canadian Trusts are nowhere nearly the safe income producing haven they once were thus their bargain prices and now the big money has pulled out due to the uncertainty of whether or not marginal companies will either reform a different entity or simply be bought out by foreign equity (which is probably best case scenario). Dont forget, many companies that thrived under CRT laws will probably not perform nearly as well under any different type of corporate entity....

I dont believe they are packing up and leaving Canada now... their economy is too hot with the demand for natural resources in the past several years have been unbelievable.

The Halloween massacre (as I call it) drove a stake right through the heart of my portfolio when Flaherty pulled that stunt right from under us. I dont know much about Canadian politics, but at least now I know anything can happen anywhere and at anytime. boo politics.issed:

 

[Rawr]

I bought LVS at 80 and sold off yesterday at 97. To shed some light on this stock - it was down to 70's for two months then in a week and a half climbed to 108 and now is down to 94 in 4 days.

Mike, what is the technical side telling right now? I follow the news and think (hope) this is the buy time and if I am buying I am throwing most of my money in. What's everyone's take?

 

[biophase]

NMX - long on options at the moment

 

[biophase]

FMN has been one my favorite dividend paying stocks (its a closed-end fund) for years. It's priced at $14 and it pays around $0.83/share per year. It pays out monthly and is 100% tax free. Try to buy it under $14 and just divident reinvestment monthly.

 

[randallg99]

Re: Soros` Favorites & Why

cant answer why Soros bought these ....

WASHINGTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros reported in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that his fund has taken on stakes in U.S. oil major ConocoPhillips (COP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Soros Fund Management reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission its holdings as of June 30, which included 432,243 shares in ConocoPhillips and 407,474 shares in Freeport-McMoRan.

The overall value of Soros' fund increased to $3.15 billion from $2.48 billion as of March 31.

The filing revealed that Soros had also taken on a 508,515 share stake in Tyco International Ltd. (TYC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which recently completed its spinoffs, and a 539,016 share stake in Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

Further, the fund disclosed a 2.03-million share stake in biotechnology company PDL Biopharma Inc. (PDLI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and a 1.02-million share stake in contract oil and gas driller Pride International Inc. (PDE.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

 

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[TheBoyPlunger]

Did own DRYS and AKS until Friday. Sold them off to move funds around.

Kidgas, I saw ur post on AKS on the RD Forum(Hot stock post) and shorted it promptly. Covered for a small profit and shorted again later.

:icon_super:

 

[kidgas]

Kidgas, I saw ur post on AKS on the RD Forum(Hot stock post) and shorted it promptly. Covered for a small profit and shorted again later.

:icon_super:

Hope the short works out for you. I got out at a 6% gain over 3.5 months. That was after another 6% gain over 3 weeks. The liquidity crunch knocked the sails out of many stocks. AKS, I feel, was a combination play on commodities and takeover speculation. The takeover may be out of play for awhile now, but it is impossible to predict.

I am, however, back into DRYS. You can follow its progress in the stock collar thread here on this forum.

 

[bflbob]

For today, it is ARK -- Blackrock Senior High Income
Bought it yesterday at $4.79.
Today it is up to $5.60 for a 16% 1-day gain.:banana:

Why? Because it fit my buying pattern.
I'll hold until it hits $10.27. (I bought originally at $6.30 a couple years ago.)
I'll buy more if it drops to $3.09.
Kicks out a nice little $.05/share monthly payout too.

 

[TheBoyPlunger]

I covered half my shorts yesterday at 28.3. Was kicking myself for not having covered completely. Either way, the nearest support is at 26 and the 50EMA is at 26.4. Moreover it should revisit yesterday's lows, technically speaking ;-)

 

[kidgas]

I agree with you on that.

 

[kidgas]

Looks like AKS is up quite a bit today. Near term, I think there will be lots of volatility in the market.

 

[Rawr]

I bought LVS at 80 and sold off yesterday at 97. To shed some light on this stock - it was down to 70's for two months then in a week and a half climbed to 108 and now is down to 94 in 4 days.

Mike, what is the technical side telling right now? I follow the news and think (hope) this is the buy time and if I am buying I am throwing most of my money in. What's everyone's take?

I am back in this one at 94 and it is now at 99.25. I will hold till 100 then sell off, this one has a tendency to jump up and down over a week's period of time.

 

[TheBoyPlunger]

Looks like AKS is up quite a bit today. Near term, I think there will be lots of volatility in the market.

I went short on AKS today around 35.20. We'll see how it works out.

Took a long position after some time - CBST. Should have waited for this a week more but didn't want to miss a breakout :smx4:


Net 66% short and 33% long.

 

[bflbob]

Today it is my NFLD.

This has been flat for me for a long time, but is up 30% right now (40% at the peak) for the day.

Unfortunately, it needs to climb quite a bit before I can sell.

 

[kidgas]

The next one I am watching is NVDA.

 

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[bflbob]

I'm also liking my GME (Gamestop) today.

Beating earnings, it is up over 11% for the day.

This is a carry-over from ELBO (Electronics Boutique) which was bought-out by GME.
I've already pulled my original investment out, and I'm riding on profits only here.:thankyousign:

 

[1320Trader]

VMW just wont stop.....and I dont own any :bgh: :smx4:

 

[MrDoctor]

VMW just wont stop.....and I dont own any :bgh: :smx4:

VMware is complete GARBAGE. Do you remember in 2000 when every tech company was over traded? These companies had no earnings and were trading HUGE! I am shorting VMWare, and it is going to make me a hefty profit. Although, I may add, they are going to post good profit in the 4th quarter. After that in when you short or if you feel risky, buy some put options. They have been in talks with many companies ala Dell, google, etc.

Here is why I chimed on this post. For those that do not know my style, I am a day trader. So, anything I recommend is a pump and dump or all speculation (mostly.)

Word is that a USA storage company (tech, hard drives, etc) is going to be acquired by an unnamed, but big Chinese company. And I may add that this is going to be a huge CASH buyout? I have come to the conclusion that the only possible target company is.......

WDC-- Western Digital.

There are some grins in Washington, they are concerned about the deal. It has to be approved...

I am invested in WDC. Since the rumor, it has gone up slightly. Now, this is not a sure thing, but either way it goes, WDC is a kick-a$$ company to own. You cannot lose much and the possibility of the deal going through is great. There is more positive in this move than negative.

 

[DustinS]

Shorted BCSI this morning and hoping to ride it down for a while. I don't forsee another rally anytime soon unless the FED interferes again.

 

[MrDoctor]

Shorted BCSI this morning and hoping to ride it down for a while. I don't forsee another rally anytime soon unless the FED interferes again.

The rates aren't going anywhere. THANK YOU BUSH . I am not a Bush admin supporter, but I believe what the goverment and fed is doing (which is absolutley nothing) is the right thing to do.

On a side note, buy AAPL RIGHT NOW. On September 5th they will be releasing the new iPod. Buy it now, sell on top, short it down, and enjoy a nice cigar afterwards :coolgleamA:. Investors need another cult stock to sink money into during this time. VMWARE is HYPE. Apple is HYPE. HYPE is GOOD.

 

[DustinS]

Hmm AAPL could get a decent jump the day of the Ipod release, but the way the markets heading right now I'd wait a few more days to hop on that boat! I do like the plan though :smxF:

 

[MrDoctor]

Hmm AAPL could get a decent jump the day of the Ipod release, but the way the markets heading right now I'd wait a few more days to hop on that boat! I do like the plan though :smxF:

I'm glad I didn't wait :icon_fU:.

 

[1320Trader]

nice pick up Dr. I'm getting into day trading...what news sources do you use daily?

 

[DustinS]

I'm glad I didn't wait :icon_fU:.

Hah guess my inexperience owns me again