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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

MJ DeMarco

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wide spreads are a turn-off for me.

Yea, the spread ate up what would have been a 60% gain, so I wasn't planning on waiting around... the stock went down about 40% since I bought the position.
 
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socaldude

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Yea, the spread ate up what would have been a 60% gain, so I wasn't planning on waiting around... the stock went down about 40% since I bought the position

Yeah , it’ll go lower. But your position is obviously by a certain time. It’ll take a lil longer to go lower.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Random thought...

What if current interest rates is a psyop to get trillions of money flow into short-term US treasuries (currently paying a cushy 5%+) so the government can then default on it, and erase much of the debt?

Paranoia? Perhaps. But being right on this notion will cost me 100% and millions. Being wrong will cost me the inflation rate.

The $35T deficit is beyond repair and default or insolvency is the only way out of that mess. The idiots in DC simply don't care, and never will until there is a full-scale collapse.
 

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Random thought...

What if current interest rates is a psyop to get trillions of money flow into short-term US treasuries (currently paying a cushy 5%+) so the government can then default on it, and erase much of the debt?

Paranoia? Perhaps. But being right on this notion will cost me 100% and millions. Being wrong will cost me the inflation rate.

The $35T deficit is beyond repair and default or insolvency is the only way out of that mess. The idiots in DC simply don't care, and never will until there is a full-scale collapse.
Americans need to demand some kind of game plan to eliminate the deficit and reduce the debt.
 
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Kevin88660

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Random thought...

What if current interest rates is a psyop to get trillions of money flow into short-term US treasuries (currently paying a cushy 5%+) so the government can then default on it, and erase much of the debt?

Paranoia? Perhaps. But being right on this notion will cost me 100% and millions. Being wrong will cost me the inflation rate.

The $35T deficit is beyond repair and default or insolvency is the only way out of that mess. The idiots in DC simply don't care, and never will until there is a full-scale collapse.
A default will launch financial amagaddon unprecedented.

They will most likely do targeted QE. Get some commercial banks to buy gov debts at all cost, guaranteed by Fed. Global investors do not want to hear Fed buying Government bonds directly. That’s what a banana republics does.

Targeted QE while keeping interest rate high. Keep the debt rolling while inflation under control, hopefully.

The world bank solution to debt is gold revaluation, which will keep Peter Schiff laughing his way to the bank.

 

socaldude

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Random thought...

What if current interest rates is a psyop to get trillions of money flow into short-term US treasuries (currently paying a cushy 5%+) so the government can then default on it, and erase much of the debt?

Paranoia? Perhaps. But being right on this notion will cost me 100% and millions. Being wrong will cost me the inflation rate.

The $35T deficit is beyond repair and default or insolvency is the only way out of that mess. The idiots in DC simply don't care, and never will until there is a full-scale collapse.

You are not getting paid for the risk you are taking as a bond holder though.

The risk-free rate theorized by finance academics is a defunct and outdated formula that "assumes" the government cannot and will not default on its debts and obligations.

We have to engineer this isomorphically equivalent thought-experiment that can give us a clue as to what will happen. We then need some way to test for transitivity so we are not just guessing.

Americans need to demand some kind of game plan to eliminate the deficit and reduce the debt.

Laugh out loud. They are so scared. We might just raise our voice at them.

That’s what a banana republics does.

America is a Banana Republic.

Most don't realize just how close we are to a complete collapse and a new financial order. A world completely turned upside down. Sorry everybody, not a "conspiracy theory". They don't want people to "beat the gun".

America is this bizarre corporate-oligarchy kleptocracy.

This is something that won't drag on for 50 years, more like a few years.

People don't realize just how fast America changed in a short few years. This whole historical narrative is something that does not exist and something you will never ever see again.
 

MJ DeMarco

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We might just raise our voice at them.

Or write strongly worded letters with our fists in the air! Woooo!

I recently wrote a check for taxes, in jest, I asked my accountant who I should write the check to, Ukraine or Israel?
 
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socaldude

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I recently wrote a check for taxes, in jest, I asked my accountant who I should write the check to, Ukraine or Israel?

The sad thing is, this is psychologically structured exactly like a scam or a con.

“We almost got em! We just need that aid. Hurry up!”

The world bank solution to debt is gold revaluation, which will keep Peter Schiff laughing his way to the bank.

Good thing we still have tonnes of Gold reserves at Fort Knox. That place must be maintained in pristine condition. There’s probably a French maid with an ostrich feather cleaning the place as we speak conspiracy theory non-sense on some Internet forum. Does anybody know if I can get a job there as a landscaper?
 

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Are REITs still a reliable tool to protect and grow your earnings? Especially Realty Income? Or maybe another one?
The monthly dividend is pretty unusual for someone from Europe (our REITs equivalents give yearly dividends).

Could it be an interesting strategy alongside bonds and regular dividend stocks? I know these tools are discussed by MJ at the end of Unscripted but I don't remember for REITs. I don't have the book available for the moment to check.

Any feedback from US people who should be familiar with it (or any fellow investor) is more than welcome! My net worth is growing and I would like to diversify.
 

Kevin88660

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Good thing we still have tonnes of Gold reserves at Fort Knox. That place must be maintained in pristine condition. There’s probably a French maid with an ostrich feather cleaning the place as we speak conspiracy theory non-sense on some Internet forum. Does anybody know if I can get a job there as a landscaper?
A gold revaluation will solve some of the problems keeping most governments solvent. After all their liabilities are in papers and they owned gold.

But that’s the last resort if the current game could not be sustainable. Inflation will be a bigger problem by then.

Eric Sprott did some number crunching back then and days U.S. government actually holds a lot less physical gold than they claim to own.

Right now copper price is going to the roof.

I feel it’s going to be paper currency devaluation rather than default. Allen Greenspan summarized succinctly before that “we can guarantee the payment but not the purchasing power”.

Japan is literally going through the process now. Huge debt, low interest rate, currency devaluation.

Your currency is going to lose value anyway when you default the debt. So you might as well just pay the papers.
 
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socaldude

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Eric Sprott did some number crunching back then and days U.S. government actually holds a lot less physical gold than they claim to own.

My guess is the US Treasury owns little to no Gold.

The dollar is not a gold or silver reserve currency as it once was so that gives them the all clear and the alibi.

If they do hold Gold it’s to make their lousy gold coins at the mint to sell to collectors.

It’s like the perfect crime. Commit fraud and embezzlement while having an alibi. When they have the “US dollar debt crisis hearings” in congress, they’ll just say “We did what we were told to do and we did what we thought was the best for the country at the time”. Not guilty baby! Suckers!
 

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Laugh out loud. They are so scared. We might just raise our voice at them.

Would you agree that without a plan there is no chance to save the US dollar?

The Gramm-Rudman-Hollins Act was actually passed, even if it was ignored. If they passed a similar act now, they would have 35 trillion examples of why they shouldn't ignore it, again.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Are REITs still a reliable tool to protect and grow your earnings? Especially Realty Income? Or maybe another one?
The monthly dividend is pretty unusual for someone from Europe (our REITs equivalents give yearly dividends).

I like to think so because they carry hard assets that will reprice to whatever is going on with currency.

Bottomline, when the dollar collapses—and it will— everything will take a beating, question is, which will be impacted the least.
 
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socaldude

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Would you agree that without a plan there is no chance to save the US dollar?

Yes, the Fed needs to end and all of congress fired. Not to mention a bunch of other institutions. It’s a crime syndicate.

These days I don’t know how that would even be possible. You’ll probably be canceled in some Underhanded way if someone led the way.
 

socaldude

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In the scientific method, scientists use empirical induction to guess what relationship observations have.

This is actually the dumbest way to arrive at the causes of things.

For something like a US Dollar-Debt Crisis, as to how we would engineer a clairvoyance. We would need logical induction or rational induction. You wouldn't be able to use deductive reasoning or the scientific method on it's own.

There would be more than one approach here of course. It would all be equally valid, no contradiction whatsoever.

You could even explain it just through energy. Like a mental illness or a raging lunatic or a serial killer or an angry mob.
 
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c4n

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In the scientific method, scientists use empirical induction to guess what relationship observations have.

This is actually the dumbest way to arrive at the causes of things.

For something like a US Dollar-Debt Crisis, as to how we would engineer a clairvoyance. We would need logical induction or rational induction. You wouldn't be able to use deductive reasoning or the scientific method on it's own.

There would be more than one approach here of course. It would all be equally valid, no contradiction whatsoever.

You could even explain it just through energy. Like a mental illness or a raging lunatic or a serial killer or an angry mob.

I believe you are mixing real science (physics, chemistry, biology...) with social "sciences" like Economy :)
 

Timmy C

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I've never really seen Australia in a worse spot than it is right now.

The middle class has been crushed by inflation, Making $100k is no longer an achievement, it's the starting point for not living in poverty.

Property values are through the roof, there's no way a 2 bedroom unit with a shared driveway in a dump like craigeburn is worth $650,000. It was only $450,000 a couple of years ago.

My brother had a look at some properties as he is looking to buy another, and he said all of the young people look afraid, and stressed at these inspections.

The money is so broken. You can imagine gold will go on a tear for quite some time. It finally started to move after years, and years which surprised me.
 
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socaldude

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The middle class has been crushed by inflation, Making $100k is no longer an achievement, it's the starting point for not living in poverty.

Talk about economic moats or barriers to entry. This is like total displacement. Like not being allowed inside a building. Like a sign that says no trespassing.

Same thing is happening here in the US.

Not only are people being displaced by price but by jobs that were never regenerated or don’t even exist. Job titles are just a made up figment like a book title.

People got high-paying jobs then used the salaries to buy real estate. Then the same jobs were never re-created.
 
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Timmy C

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Talk about economic moats or barriers to entry. This is like total displacement. Like not being allowed inside a building. Like a sign that says no trespassing.

Same thing is happening here in the US.

Not only are people being displaced by price but by jobs that were never regenerated or don’t even exist. Job titles are just a made up figment like a book title.

People got high-paying jobs then used the salaries to buy real estate. Then the same jobs were never re-created.

From what I hear about the USA everything is worse, but I think Australia has you covered for property insanity.

Much like the USA we have a bunch of clowns in power that are only interested in benefiting themselves.

I think MJ is spot on saying that rates can't stay up for much longer, then assets will fly even higher, locking in the death of the middle class.

the dollar is obviously trash, but I find it hard to predict when exactly it ends.

Australia's economy consists of property speculation, NDIS rorts, and importing everything. So many resources and we make nothing.

There is talks, and they are starting to implement CBDC frameworks around the world now though, so maybe they see the end is near.
 

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From what I hear about the USA everything is worse, but I think Australia has you covered for property insanity.

I don’t know about anybody else but I can sense the seismic shift happening.

Like a dys-morphism.

Like a chipmunk voice-recording being played in reverse. Or like white static noise on a TV.

Then you have this media that doesn’t say anything as if nothing is happening or as if nothing has changed.
 

ZF Lee

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You can imagine gold will go on a tear for quite some time. It finally started to move after years, and years which surprised me.
I actually hit up some gold mutual funds at the end of last year.

Felt rather pricey back then, and often wondered if I should have waited for a pullback.

If I did...let's say that might be the last time I see gold at the lower $2000s and I wouldn't be 16% up today...
 
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Kevin88660

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I've never really seen Australia in a worse spot than it is right now.

The middle class has been crushed by inflation, Making $100k is no longer an achievement, it's the starting point for not living in poverty.

Property values are through the roof, there's no way a 2 bedroom unit with a shared driveway in a dump like craigeburn is worth $650,000. It was only $450,000 a couple of years ago.

My brother had a look at some properties as he is looking to buy another, and he said all of the young people look afraid, and stressed at these inspections.

The money is so broken. You can imagine gold will go on a tear for quite some time. It finally started to move after years, and years which surprised me.
I can tell from how SGD/AUD trends these years.
 

Kevin88660

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I actually hit up some gold mutual funds at the end of last year.

Felt rather pricey back then, and often wondered if I should have waited for a pullback.

If I did...let's say that might be the last time I see gold at the lower $2000s and I wouldn't be 16% up today...
What do you think about the copper short squeeze?

2020 March we saw negative oil price due to lack of storage capacity as inventory is full.

Now copper inventory is running out of stocks. 2 Million tons worth of long contracts but inventory only about less than 150k tons of stocks across LME and CME, in which a bulk of the stock are Russian Copper ineligible for delivery. Will we see copper to the moon in June?
 

ZF Lee

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What do you think about the copper short squeeze?

2020 March we saw negative oil price due to lack of storage capacity as inventory is full.

Now copper inventory is running out of stocks. 2 Million tons worth of long contracts but inventory only about less than 150k tons of stocks across LME and CME, in which a bulk of the stock are Russian Copper ineligible for delivery. Will we see copper to the moon in June?
I would not discount it.

Am keeping an eye on other metals too, especially aluminum and even tin.

Honestly the West has allowed other powers to take over metals and raw resources a tad too much. Exchanges too. Even LME has been bought over by HKEX...which makes shit even more fishy when the nickel squeeze of 2022 was triggered by a major Chinese player. For it to cancel entire trades for one of its own...just fishy.

We have some TOUGH structural problems to blame for commodities boom:
-The West's ESG policies forcing mining to shift to hostile powers who have more lax rules
-'TikTok' generation who chases after influencer, dropshipping and 'startup' biz ideas, instead of planning to replace the ranks of the 'old school' workers and businessmen
-Too little investment into upgrading tech for mining 'dirty' fuels and metals (all the money went to ESG again)

Honestly since Malaysia still has many thumbs in the pies, I think we'll enjoy some good years.

Thankfully the gov has continue to pump capex money into its oil companies on Bursa stock market. In fact, my BIGGEST bagger is like 100% up...and its some oil support biz.

Uusually for my country's stock market, I have to deploy day trading or short swing strategies because its not the centre of the financial world (unlike America). But for this pick...I just took back my capital and was surprised to see it continue booming to the moon.

But we'll suffer when these raw mats costs leak into the global supply chain and our imports...and once the gov ACTUALLY starts lifting oil subsidies here and there (meant as reforms...but things could go wrong).
 
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Kevin88660

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NVDA is not fastlane but lightspeed lane (at least for the Founder and some top employees there)
If you get in early enough you are kind of like a small owner of part of the business.
 
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Adam256

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Anyone here use Quiver Quantitative?, idk much about it tbh just came across it recently.
 

socaldude

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Anyone here use Quiver Quantitative?, idk much about it tbh just came across it recently.

No, what about it is so appealing to you?

Just curious.
 

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