I was about to agree until you got to the real estate part. Retiring boomers and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on housing for the next decade or two.
B.S. This is my 37th year in the RE business. I have seen good times and bad times over the years. The longest downturn I have experienced lasted almost all of the 1990s. It was in the office and warehouse markets in Los Angeles, CA. This is my 5th business cycle during my adulthood (1972 to present). I bought my first house for $27,500. in 1976 (2 bedrooms, 1 bath, GI special, tract house). So the market can't be too depressed now with the average housing prices at over 10 to 15 times that amount. You could buy a huge house for $40,000 to $50,000. In 1980, interest rates for houses went from 9.5% to 22% in about a month right after Christmas. That was only about a 3 or 4 year correction. It also took a guy named Reagan to pull us out of it. And I can talk about the crash in 1990 in the housing market.
I thought the government was already buying the market, isn't that what QE is/was ?
And how many years do you have in your business????? What were you doing 37 years ago? By the way, that's 1976 to the present. I've been playing monopoly with real money for many of those years. I've had some big wins and some spectacular failures.
We've had several bubbles going on different fronts.View attachment 47429
The spread between the 2 and the 10 year yield is still very inverted. Even more inverted than it was before the internet crash of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008. In other words, there is a bubble SOMEWHERE. Who knows where. It can be crypto, equities or something. There is gonna be an economic explosion/implosion somewhere in some sector or asset class.
I trust this indicator and I think it's one that many investors pay attention to. It's often misunderstood and overlooked.
I think 2023 will a year of epic volatility. Something is finally gonna "give" this year. And I don't think it will be a "soft landing" courtesy of the schmucks that had monetary policy wrong for 12 years.
There are days where the SP500 is down 1.05% and the VIX will actually be down say...2.15%. But I think it has to do more with the VIX already being elevated at say...20. More so than it being a "bullish indicator". It might be worth timing a VIX spike in 2023 as we will see a new economic and volatility regime.
You need to read or listen to the books by Ray Dalio about how money works. It's very enlightening.
I feel like a kid in a candy shop with all the people publishing their own books and putting content on the net. The gatekeepers have been shoved aside. And I love Audible and podcasts so I can listen all day. I am all in for different points of view.
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It's taken me a lot more than 20 years. I've been in the RE business for 47 years. I have seen up and downs in the business. I have learned about cycles in both business and credit. Yes, I've made good money with my expertise and I have lost during the downturns. Over those years I learned how and when to invest in RE.
And how about around 1990 when it ended that cycle? Over the 1990's decade, it was the death of the Savings & Loan Associations and the Thrifts. That downturn took down the whole savings and lending industry. That's when Wall Street and the secondary mortgage market took over financing the RE market... which led to a whole bunch of new lending products... which led to the 2008 downturn. These events are a trackable and mostly predictable cycle. The basic business cycle runs about 8 years. Then there's the credit cycle which runs about 50 to 75 years. 2008 was a credit cycle event. But, with the national debt and consumer debts, we don't know IF it finished playing out.
Finally ! Was a good day to sell some premium after almost 3 months of muted volatility.
I just read an article saying there is "little chance of contagion." Yeah, sure.
It always has. The economic markets turn in an instant. I always play contra to the markets in RE. I don't try to hit the top or the bottom. Close is good enough because I know how fast things can go the opposite way. I have seen a lot over all of these years...
No. No one can tell you IF your investments are safe in the short term. Playing the stock market game has a lot of built-in risks, especially for short-term players. Will there be a rally or a dead-cat bounce? I don't know right now. I know that people are herd animals and that herds as a group turn on a dime. I'm not sure how much fear the leaders are smelling right now. And that's why I don't play the stock market.
I'll put it another way. I have currently about $30k to my name and a high risk tolerance. Should I put it all into crypto at this price? will bitcoin keep falling or will it go back up? You seem to know your stuff so I think I can trust your opinion thank you
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