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MJ DeMarco

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Thought it would be cool to have a separate stock market discussion thread, like the "Random Thoughts/Chat" thread -- this is the thread to post in if you want to discuss any stock market trading day, including any insights or forecasts you might have. Or, this is the place to post random economic activity information, posts, tweets, etc.

Here is the thread to vote on where 2022 will end:


So I'll start...

Which is to say that we're having a pretty interesting start to 2022! Is this just a minor correction, or something more ominous? This downdraft is caused by interest rate speculation, and that the FED will start raising them.
 
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ohmamecr

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I was seeing this week in so many sources that we are not ready forr what gonna expect, what is happening on the markets if you know something about? may be the stock of eeuu was being profitable so much for the last several years and already need to crash, jack bogle tought that we will be into 2 crashes in this decade, looks like the next crisis will be a stock market recesion definitely.
 

thechosen1

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Zoom's stock was very high for a while due to everyone going to remote work, but has recently fallen dramatically.
Is the current valuation justified? Too high, or too low?
 
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ljean

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I'm not much for discussing opinions or making predictions, I'd rather just make my bets and see how the chips fall. I will say my top 10 industries by exposure (50% of portfolio) are currently:

Specialty Retail
Oil & Gas E&P
Trucking
Education & Training Services
Furnishings Fixtures & Appliances
Residential Construction
Apparel Retail
Oil & Gas Midstream
Diagnostics & Research
Specialty Industrial Machinery
Chemicals

My top 10 positions by exposure (32% of portfolio) are:

AZO, PTSI, SMP, MMI, PFE, WHR, HI, HPQ, TOL, CNHI
 
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MoneyDoc

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Thanks for start this thread MJ!

Interesting past two days in the markets.

Interesting Powell testimony also. Surprised markets went up. Seems like all the hawkish "what ifs" are being priced in as we speak. I think what really eased some investors was the fact that Powell said "we just started to discuss balance sheet sell offs and these types of decisions usually take 3-4 FOMC meetings". This was the only thing unknown in the minutes which caused that huge dip last week.

I personally don't think CPI will have a big effect, if any, tomorrow. Some people must know the number already and EOD closed strong and futures are looking okay but volume is very low.

My opinion is that the next 3-6 months we continue in an uptrend. March hikes become a non event (so many people expecting a "crash") and inflation starts to "magically" wind down. As soon as we get timelines for the balance sheet sell off, I would expect markets to be slow movers then. Otherwise, I don't see a catalyst for another major dip short-to-medium term.
 
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loop101

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I expect two crashes, the stock market followed by the US dollar. They would have already stopped QE if they thought they could without crashing the market, and now they have to stop it. They also have to raise interest rates. Either one of these would cause problems in the market, combined I think they will crash it. I also expect other nations to devalue the USD since we've given up on paying back our National debt, or even not running a deficit.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Market finishes like today that occur on Thursdays usually foretell a horrible Friday... its a pattern I've seen all too often. There was more than a 10 point reversal on the SPY today (100 on SPX).

EDIT: WOW, Netflix down 17% in the after hours after earnings.
 

MJ DeMarco

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EDIT: WOW, Netflix down 17% in the after hours after earnings.

Now down over $100, from 508 to 407 ... over $45 billion lost in market cap. This likely will indeed foretell a bad Friday to come...
 
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MoneyDoc

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Market finishes like today that occur on Thursdays usually foretell a horrible Friday... its a pattern I've seen all too often. There was more than a 10 point reversal on the SPY today (100 on SPX).

EDIT: WOW, Netflix down 17% in the after hours after earnings.
Did you see Peloton? Two market halts.

Internal documents show that they're temporarily halting production as demand wanes.

I think most IPOs got smacked today.
 

thechosen1

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Market finishes like today that occur on Thursdays usually foretell a horrible Friday... its a pattern I've seen all too often.
Looks like you are correct. Wow, what an ugly day in the stock market.

The never-ending bull market has been hiccuping quite a bit lately.
 

MJ DeMarco

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socaldude

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When correlations rise across the board you’ll see volatility rise. The problem with this market is that it makes no sense. Bonds and tech have been moving together. Treasuries are no longer a safe haven. Gonna be a fun 2022 LOL. That first month the fed starts hiking rates is historically not a good one.
 

thechosen1

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18394A7C-86D2-4EDA-B2AE-FC49B6C6B131.png
 
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MoneyDoc

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Keep in mind guys, we had OpEx this week. New contracts next week. Historically, OpEx weeks have been VERY red.

It all depends on Powell now. This "dip" is likely pricing in the anticipated balance sheet sell off. IF Powell reverses tone on that or delays QT by 3-6 months, this "dump" will be saved like 2020. It's just a matter of how much political pressure is on Powell now. He either flip flops or stands by his principles.
 
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thechosen1

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The market will now take economic reports and fundamental analysis seriously. LOL
if only!! I think people have a lot of money to lose before that happens.

And you know what? Even though this lesson has been taught throughout the last 200 years over and over, people do the same things. Most lessons are like this.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Political approval ratings at big lows, looks like the folks in DC will need a war to improve them. SMH.

Carnage on D-Street as Nifty ends below 17,200, Sensex drops 1,545 pts; IT, metal, realty worst hit.

I moved your post to the Market Discussion thread.
 

MJ DeMarco

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A long SPX option I bought for $85 is now worth $5,100 -- unfortunately I sold it when it was worth $600. :clench:
 
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socaldude

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How low do you guys think SPY will go. Will we close above or below the September lows?
 

MJ DeMarco

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How low do you guys think SPY will go. Will we close above or below the September lows?

I have no idea.

Lots of moving parts right now: potential war, inflation, COVID, bubbles, rampant corruption in both corporate board rooms and government, and the Fed tightning with higher rates.

All this says a big move lower. Which means actually the market will rebound and reach new highs.
 

socaldude

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Well, I went ahead and bought some near-expiration ATM SPY calls today. They’re already up a little. Laugh at me tomorrow. :happy:
 

YanC

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What a day ! Glad experience taught me how to keep calm in these circumstances. A few months ago I would have adjusted as soon as the markets opened and been whipsawed hard by now. Let's see what the rest of the week brings us now.
 

Riyajain2

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For the first time since its listing, the stock’s price has rolled below Rs 100/share.
At Rs 92.75 apiece, the food delivery Stock News has plummeted 45% from its 52-week high of Rs 169.1 in Nov 2021.
Zomato Tanks Over 18%, Shares Fall Under Rs 100 on Monday; Records All-Time Low
 

Riyajain2

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The share price of food delivery platform Zomato Ltd fell below Rs 100 for the first time since it was listed in July 2021. On Monday, the first trading day of the week, the price of shares of Zometi fell by 18.26 percent and came down to Rs 92.90.
For the first time since its listing, the stock’s price has rolled below Rs 100/share.
At Rs 92.75 apiece, the food delivery Stock News has plummeted 45% from its 52-week high of Rs 169.1 in Nov 2021.
Zomato Tanks Over 18%, Shares Fall Under Rs 100 on Monday; Records All-Time Low
 

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