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Share: St. Joe (joe, $28)

andviv

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I received the latest edition of Fortune magazine and they are listing the "Best Stocks" for 2008. One of them is St. JOE (JOE, $28).

As many of you know, I know nothing about stocks, what I do is REI, but I was reading this article and this company sounds very interesting.

This company is the largest private landowner in FL and they are valuated right now at $3,700 an acre (I've invested in FL before, I know this is a great price) for 710,000 acres of FL real estate, and 310,000 of those within ten miles of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This caught my attention so I'd like to know more about this company.

The reason I like it is because the projected 33% population increase for FL, so this price per acre sounds like a bargain to me, so this would be a long term investment for my portfolio.

Other than their website and google finance, what should I do to start researching it so I can make a decision whether this is a good buy for me?

Thanks in advance for your suggestions/comments.
 

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Edge

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I've looked at this stock also on more than one occasion. The only thing I cant get past is I haven't done the research to know how much of their land is "swamp land"? I also haven't researched their timber business enough to know how much of that they have benefited from on their books and if it is sustainable.

I've thought about playing this one the same way that I am playing XHB. On a down day, sell OTM puts, if it expires worthless, rinse and repeat. If I get it put to me, i'll sell the call to reduce my cost basis, rinse and repeat.
 

randallg99

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I received the latest edition of Fortune magazine and they are listing the "Best Stocks" for 2008. One of them is St. JOE (JOE, $28).

As many of you know, I know nothing about stocks, what I do is REI, but I was reading this article and this company sounds very interesting.

This company is the largest private landowner in FL and they are valuated right now at $3,700 an acre (I've invested in FL before, I know this is a great price) for 710,000 acres of FL real estate, and 310,000 of those within ten miles of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This caught my attention so I'd like to know more about this company.

The reason I like it is because the projected 33% population increase for FL, so this price per acre sounds like a bargain to me, so this would be a long term investment for my portfolio.

Other than their website and google finance, what should I do to start researching it so I can make a decision whether this is a good buy for me?

Thanks in advance for your suggestions/comments.
I agree with The Edge... much of the land owned is speculated to be worthless. JOE made a lot of news with ownership last year.

Thompson Insider, Bloomberg and Ameritrade are all sites I like to use.
As an REI, I do not buy publicly traded home builders and physical REITs because I want to be hedged in all facets of my investing arena at this juncture.

I also believe a jump in Florida real estate is premature... in a perfect world, the Fed infusions will spark the housing market, but I am afraid that it will be short lived. The election year coming up might add some fuel and spark, but long term is not strong in Florida due to massive overbuild. The current supply and inventory has to be absorbed first...

The other question that remains foggy is that which segment of the population will see the majority of the 33% growth... My inclination is that it is the lower end of the demographic income levels ...

of course, I could be wrong.

As an alternative, I heavily invested in years past in Mortgage Back Securities that have REIT status which provided huge capital appreciation and quality double digit dividend yields. Now that the spreads are widening, I believe we will see these companies trade significantly above their book values.

Two stocks I recently bought that fit above criteria are NLY and CMO. *which NLY ironically was also named as one of the best picks of next year yet I have traded it for years.
 

Analyzer

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I'm not an expert and had never heard of this company until you posted it but checking yahoo finance something looks odd to me.

They have price/book of 4.37 ?

If they are mainly holding land and you said the price of that land seemed cheap relative to value of the company, then they must be recording land in theyre accounts at really low levels.

Any idea why they would do this?

My valuation logic in this situation would normally be:

1. They are mainly holding land, so look for the value of tangible assets (in this case you can estimate it will be in line with book value)
2. Check if the book value makes sense (if they are not over or under stating the value of the assets)
3. Check the price to know what discount/premium you're getting
In this case a book value of 4 would indicates that if you went out there and bought the land yourself you should be able to get 4 times more land for the same investment.
I think I'm missing something:confused:
 
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andviv

andviv

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In this case a book value of 4 would indicates that if you went out there and bought the land yourself you should be able to get 4 times more land for the same investment.
I think I'm missing something:confused:
That's exactly why I am asking about this... I know it is almost impossible to buy that close to the gulf for $4K per acre...

I do know that Panama City's development is projected to get even better thanks to their new airport, so these projections are the reason for my interest.
 

Edge

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I received the latest edition of Fortune magazine and they are listing the "Best Stocks" for 2008. One of them is St. JOE (JOE, $28).

As many of you know, I know nothing about stocks, what I do is REI, but I was reading this article and this company sounds very interesting.

This company is the largest private landowner in FL and they are valuated right now at $3,700 an acre (I've invested in FL before, I know this is a great price) for 710,000 acres of FL real estate, and 310,000 of those within ten miles of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This caught my attention so I'd like to know more about this company.

The reason I like it is because the projected 33% population increase for FL, so this price per acre sounds like a bargain to me, so this would be a long term investment for my portfolio.

Other than their website and google finance, what should I do to start researching it so I can make a decision whether this is a good buy for me?

Thanks in advance for your suggestions/comments.
This traded as high as $46 since your inquiry and currently around $35. Are you still keeping your eye on this one Andviv?
 

PEERless

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I received the latest edition of Fortune magazine and they are listing the "Best Stocks" for 2008.
Just remember that a stock's price incorporates all common knowledge -- including the fact that it's a Fortune "Best Stock."
 
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andviv

andviv

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This traded as high as $46 since your inquiry and currently around $35. Are you still keeping your eye on this one Andviv?
Actually no. I decided not to do it as it did not fit my plan.

Just remember that a stock's price incorporates all common knowledge -- including the fact that it's a Fortune "Best Stock."
What do you mean by that? (sorry, totally clueless about stocks and what Fortune has to do with it)
 

lightning

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What do you mean by that? (sorry, totally clueless about stocks and what Fortune has to do with it)
He's saying that a stocks current price will already include any recent news or "published" info on the companys current standings. (meaning, you of course arent the only one who noticed it is a Fortune "BEST"). ;) Just something to keep in mind when you are speculating the stocks current direction or upswing potential. :)
 

PEERless

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What do you mean by that?
He's saying that a stocks current price will already include any recent news or "published" info on the companys current standings. (meaning, you of course arent the only one who noticed it is a Fortune "BEST"). ;) Just something to keep in mind when you are speculating the stocks current direction or upswing potential. :)
Precisely, thank you. You won't be getting in on the ground floor of anything if it's already been noticed by Fortune. Not to say it will be a flop. Just remember that the price probably jumped the day that article hit newsstands.
 

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andviv

andviv

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It means there are sharks out there and you are that seal right in its jaws(as shown in your avatar)
:D
point taken...
He's saying that a stocks current price will already include any recent news or "published" info on the companys current standings. (meaning, you of course arent the only one who noticed it is a Fortune "BEST"). ;) Just something to keep in mind when you are speculating the stocks current direction or upswing potential. :)
I see. Yes, the reason why I was looking at this was for the long term approach (same reason why I did not buy it, I am not focusing on long terms for now, need to make more money now, not later).
Precisely, thank you. You won't be getting in on the ground floor of anything if it's already been noticed by Fortune. Not to say it will be a flop. Just remember that the price probably jumped the day that article hit newsstands.
I see your point. Like I mentioned in my original post, $4K per acre is a great price for that location (even if it is a swamp... did you know you could exchange that as part of the remediation program that the state of Florida has to allow people to build on Wetlands?)

Thanks all for the input. Rep++
 
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andviv

andviv

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Funny, I was reading old threads....

Today's price for this stock is $18.54, it already lost $10 from 5 years ago when I posted this here.

I did not buy it back then (as many here know, I don't invest in the market as I don't understand it that much).

Great reminder for myself that I know NOTHING about this, lol.
 

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