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SteveO

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I wish I had time to write a book. Although, if this was done, there would not be many readers...

This book would not contain easy ways to wealth in real estate and there would not be a phone number/website to capture leads.

It would be straight forward about how wealth could be made through determination and patience.

That's right.... patience. Not going in with guns a'blazin.

There is no time for a book though. There is very little time or motivation to even post.

I know real estate is in the title but I am only talking about apartments and small commercial projects.

Cycles:

Everyone knows they are there. Most people don't have the patience to setup for them.

Prices ebb and flo. It is always with the economy but some cycles are local and others national or World. Interest rates, growth in jobs and population, development rates all play a factor. But the human mind plays the largest role. People tend to want when everyone else wants.

The discussion on cycles could be an entire book on its own.

The Human Psyche:

We all know deep down what the right decisions are. It is too bad that it is so hard to follow our instincts. Instead we listen to the wrong advice that is tossed out into the breeze and gathered up by the multitudes. All the correct steps are right in front of us.

Most people want to buy when the market is hot. Banks want to lend, commercial agents will tout the direction of the market, we watch from the sidelines witnessing the massive amount of money others are making, and Banks want to lend...... Wait, I said that already.... But, banks want to lend.... making it easy to buy into a market that may be fading....

It is difficult for me to understand why banks want to lend at this time. The cycles of the market tell us that the properties are at historic highs! But the past performance must be telling us the future.

The thing about this is that the past performance may not actually be real performance. It is likely grossly exaggerated. The banks do their own proformas and begin writing in unrealistic numbers based on many different sources. They want to match them up with the regulations that govern them so they figure out the math to do so. As a buyer, you may think "I really want this deal" and buy into the bank and commercial agent's assessment. It may match your unrealistic expectations as well. In some cases you may have just purchased an anchor.

Cap Rates:

Preaching cap rates is like blowing wind into the air. People are locked into their opinions and will tell you why their process matters. This is fine and valid as it is a tool. But it can be a trap.

"I only buy 8 cap rates or above". This is a statement that will drop me out of a conversation.

To me, cap rates are a wasted effort. They are in all my evaluation tools and I do look at them... on my terms... But, the agents, banks and sellers are going to use them extensively in their misinterpretation of the facts and figures. I will leave that to them and focus on what is important to me.

My Criteria:

  • Past price or cost per unit
  • Current price
  • Change over time
  • Direction of rents
  • Job growth
  • Building permits
  • Number of square feet or units built over time
  • Rent growth
  • Rents compared to house payments
  • Vacancy rates and changes in vacancy.
I will expand on these as time is available. But as food for thought, why would you buy at 100K per apartment unit when 8 years ago they were at 20K? There is a real answer for this.
 
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Reminds me of trading options...

Sometimes the best trade is doing nothing. And sometimes that's the toughest thing to do because "doing nothing" goes against everything we know about success-- take action! Get to work! Do something! Quit sitting around!

There's always a time when sitting out and waiting is the right choice.
 

jon.a

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Good notes, thank you.

I wish I had time to write a book. Although, if this was done, there would not be many readers...

This book would not contain easy ways to wealth in real estate and there would not be a phone number/website to capture leads.

It would be straight forward about how wealth could be made through determination and patience.

That's right.... patience. Not going in with guns a'blazin.

There is no time for a book though. There is very little time or motivation to even post.

I know real estate is in the title but I am only talking about apartments and small commercial projects.

Cycles:

Everyone knows they are there. Most people don't have the patience to setup for them.

Prices ebb and flo. It is always with the economy but some cycles are local and others national or World. Interest rates, growth in jobs and population, development rates all play a factor. But the human mind plays the largest role. People tend to want when everyone else wants.

The discussion on cycles could be an entire book on its own.

The Human Psyche:

We all know deep down what the right decisions are. It is too bad that it is so hard to follow our instincts. Instead we listen to the wrong advice that is tossed out into the breeze and gathered up by the multitudes. All the correct steps are right in front of us.

Most people want to buy when the market is hot. Banks want to lend, commercial agents will tout the direction of the market, we watch from the sidelines witnessing the massive amount of money others are making, and Banks want to lend...... Wait, I said that already.... But, banks want to lend.... making it easy to buy into a market that may be fading....

It is difficult for me to understand why banks want to lend at this time. The cycles of the market tell us that the properties are at historic highs! But the past performance must be telling us the future.

The thing about this is that the past performance may not actually be real performance. It is likely grossly exaggerated. The banks do their own proformas and begin writing in unrealistic numbers based on many different sources. They want to match them up with the regulations that govern them so they figure out the math to do so. As a buyer, you may think "I really want this deal" and buy into the bank and commercial agent's assessment. It may match your unrealistic expectations as well. In some cases you may have just purchased an anchor.

Cap Rates:

Preaching cap rates is like blowing wind into the air. People are locked into their opinions and will tell you why their process matters. This is fine and valid as it is a tool. But it can be a trap.

"I only buy 8 cap rates or above". This is a statement that will drop me out of a conversation.

To me, cap rates are a wasted effort. They are in all my evaluation tools and I do look at them... on my terms... But, the agents, banks and sellers are going to use them extensively in their misinterpretation of the facts and figures. I will leave that to them and focus on what is important to me.

My Criteria:

  • Past price or cost per unit
  • Current price
  • Change over time
  • Direction of rents
  • Job growth
  • Building permits
  • Number of square feet or units built over time
  • Rent growth
  • Rents compared to house payments
  • Vacancy rates and changes in vacancy.
I will expand on these as time is available. But as food for thought, why would you buy at 100K per apartment unit when 8 years ago they were at 20K? There is a real answer for this.
 

juan917

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I will expand on these as time is available. But as food for thought, why would you buy at 100K per apartment unit when 8 years ago they were at 20K? There is a real answer for this.

To be fair, isn't it also possible that in another 5 years that 100k apartment unit becomes a 150k+ apartment unit, reaching even higher historic highs. You would be kicking yourself for not purchasing when you could have. Although a down cycle is inevitable, the next down cycle could happen 10 or 20 years from now, nobody can truly time the market
 
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jon.a

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To be fair, isn't it also possible that in another 5 years that 100k apartment unit becomes a 150k+ apartment unit, reaching even higher historic highs. You would be kicking yourself for not purchasing when you could have. Although a down cycle is inevitable, the next down cycle could happen 10 or 20 years from now, nobody can truly time the market
In all forms of investment buying right is more important than selling right.
 

ravenspear

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I think the type of investment also matters a lot.

If you are buying for flipping/rehab, then prevailing market conditions probably do not matter as much since you will be holding the property for only a short period of time.

Similarly, if buy and hold for the long term is your strategy (this is what I like) then the ebb and flow of the market is not as important as long as the property is cash flow positive and you can afford to hold it until the market returns if a down cycle hits (as long as rent rates do not crash and your expenses are still covered).

If on the other hand your strategy is to profit off of appreciation in the short to medium term, that is highly dependent on timing the market and making the purchase at the right time.
 
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juan917

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I will gladly pay you in interwebs rep dollars for an expanded post on this. It seems like something that would be extremely important, in my novice understanding.

I am going to go on a limb here and say positive cash flow > everything else
 

G-Man

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I am going to go on a limb here and say positive cash flow > everything else

@SteveO I'm a novice and I promise like most people here I have enough understanding of basic finance that I understand that cap rate doesn't matter if if your so under leveraged that a high cap rate meaning cash flow negative or poor is a bad thing.

I'm assuming that your years of experience mean there are variables that my undergrad finance degree don't see. That's what I wanna hear about if you have the time and will accept compensation in the form of fantasmal internet dollars
 
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slamrei

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Great post and insight, SteveO.
This is my first post here on the TFLF, so be nice with me :)

The human psychology aspect is called Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). Everyone wants to be in on the action before it's too late...

I'm particularly interested in Real Estate and not new to it. I've seen the last cycle where real estate prices crumbled and will always have that in the back of my mind. I own multiple SFR, and I'm not looking to add any during this stage. Numbers just doesn't make sense anymore.

However I'm on the fence with regards to to buying small apartment buildings. In my neck of the wood, they're just not building enough due to regulations, permits, cost of building, etc. Population is also expected to grow from forecast and charts that I've seen. Minimum wage is set to increase by 50% in 5 years. This, I believe will push rents even higher, which means a higher NOI and value of the property. Homeownership is declining. Millennial are more likely to rent apartments. Supply and demand favors owning apartment buildings. There's a lot of positives going forward in my location. But just knowing that cycles exist has me a little uneasy about it. I think there will be a small correction, but I doubt it will crash like the last cycle. The elements just isn't there this time around.

I'm looking, but will only purchase if I can purchase at a discount and the numbers make sense. I think that can act as a safety net if you're able to purchase it below market value and force appreciation with value add. However, I'm not experienced with apartment buildings. Part of me is tired of my slowlane job and want to get out of it ASAP. lol
 

SteveO

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I will gladly pay you in interwebs rep dollars for an expanded post on this. It seems like something that would be extremely important, in my novice understanding.
To be fair, isn't it also possible that in another 5 years that 100k apartment unit becomes a 150k+ apartment unit, reaching even higher historic highs. You would be kicking yourself for not purchasing when you could have. Although a down cycle is inevitable, the next down cycle could happen 10 or 20 years from now, nobody can truly time the market
Cycles can be tracked. You may not be able to completely follow the national cycles (macro) but the micro cycles for a metro area are easily followed. Plus the large scale trends can be tracked.

After the last crash, I bought apartments that were selling for 18K per unit and sold them a year later for 70K per unit. This is timing in my book. They were negative cashflow deals at the time and money had to be put into them. I also was able to get a loan and did not have to put any money into it. Right now these aparments are worth over 100K per unit so money was left on the table. But I took money from the sale and put it into more deals that made significant profits.

I am now out of the apartment market due to the high valuations. Perhaps they will go higher but I don't see that. Cap rates are so compressed and rents are at historical highs.

There are still deals to be made but you may not be tapping into the value pop. Your example of 100K deal being 150K could also result in a 50K value with no cashflow. So tracking numbers is important in my book.
 
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Get Right

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@SteveO Thanks for this thread!!

I did the very same thing with my spec houses (timing) and am reaping the benefits. The time is running out for that play and I will be looking elsewhere in the real estate market. Do you have time to elaborate on how these items affect your buy strategy? I would have to assume some of these factors would need to look worse for the "buys" to come into play later.

  • Direction of rents
  • Job growth
  • Building permits
  • Number of square feet or units built over time
  • Rent growth
  • Rents compared to house payments
  • Vacancy rates and changes in vacancy.

As a thank you, I will be happy to write the book for you if you want to get the info out there.
 
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SteveO

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I think the type of investment also matters a lot.

If you are buying for flipping/rehab, then prevailing market conditions probably do not matter as much since you will be holding the property for only a short period of time.

Similarly, if buy and hold for the long term is your strategy (this is what I like) then the ebb and flow of the market is not as important as long as the property is cash flow positive and you can afford to hold it until the market returns if a down cycle hits (as long as rent rates do not crash and your expenses are still covered).

If on the other hand your strategy is to profit off of appreciation in the short to medium term, that is highly dependent on timing the market and making the purchase at the right time.
It depends on the types of returns that you want to make. Short term to me is two years although it could mean one to four. Sometimes things change and adjustments need to be made.

The prevailing market conditions still mean a lot for short term. It is better to buy when less desirable and sell when more so.

If you look at the long term strategy and consider all of the capital improvement costs. The primary consideration may be cashflow. I have found that this type of income is very small in comparison. In fact I usually ignore that while looking at the "pot" that is coming.

But if you can buy into an area that has fast improving rents, the income will go up quickly. This will also be increasing the value in a significant fashion. Those increasing rents will also be wetting the appetite of the buyers to the point that they will purchase based on the anticipation of future rents.

And yes, you though some value-add in through some level of rehab and the returns can be quite high.

Say you take to scenarios for a building that cost 500K.

Example A: Purchased during a stable market of slow to moderate rent increase period.
20 units
25K per unit
8 cap rate at purchase
Net Operating Income (NOI) of 40K

Assume a loan of 400K at 5% interest - 20K
Capital expenses of 5K

This will give you a cashflow of about 15K per year.... Not bad

B: Purchased during a time of increased vacancy that your forecast showed major improvement.
20 units
0 cap at purchase
Cost 400K and needed 100K of operating capital for carry and improvements
NOI = 0
Hold time is 2 years
Rehabbed and filled the vacancies. Did improvements that increased desirability of the unit to the renter. Renter market improved significantly with less vacancy and higher rents.

Sold at 60K per unit or 1.2M. Cost of sale at 60K.

Profit 640K

Makes that 15K per year look pretty small.
 

SteveO

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I did the very same thing with my spec houses (timing) and am reaping the benefits. The time is running out for that play and I will be looking elsewhere in the real estate market. Do you have time to elaborate on how these items affect your buy strategy? I would have to assume some of these factors would need to look worse for the "buys" to come into play later.
I do feel that a good strategy is to work on manageable deals to build a reputation and cash. Prepare yourself to have the ability to buy a lot at the right time.
 

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SteveO

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However I'm on the fence with regards to to buying small apartment buildings. In my neck of the wood, they're just not building enough due to regulations, permits, cost of building, etc. Population is also expected to grow from forecast and charts that I've seen. Minimum wage is set to increase by 50% in 5 years. This, I believe will push rents even higher, which means a higher NOI and value of the property. Homeownership is declining. Millennial are more likely to rent apartments. Supply and demand favors owning apartment buildings. There's a lot of positives going forward in my location. But just knowing that cycles exist has me a little uneasy about it. I think there will be a small correction, but I doubt it will crash like the last cycle. The elements just isn't there this time around.

I'm looking, but will only purchase if I can purchase at a discount and the numbers make sense. I think that can act as a safety net if you're able to purchase it below market value and force appreciation with value add. However, I'm not experienced with apartment buildings. Part of me is tired of my slowlane job and want to get out of it ASAP. lol
Very good!

Barrier to entry is a major factor! Keep in mind that lenders are currently making it easy for most people. If they make it harder, the barrier increases for everyone.

How desirable are apartments in your location right now? Are investors clamoring to buy them?

Forget about your job for a moment and think about your overall goal. How much do you need to make in order to be able to live?

If you need 100K per year but can only afford enough rental properties to make you 30K, then a buy and hold might not be the right choice. Make some chunks of cash that will allow you to purchase the properties that will make you the 100K you need.
 

SteveO

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As a thank you, I will be happy to write the book for you if you want to get the info out there.
My way of thinking with regards to RE will not make a popular book. It goes against most of the traditional thinking.

Although, I leveraged off people that do not share their opinion.
 

jon.a

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My way of thinking with regards to RE will not make a popular book. It goes against most of the traditional thinking.

Although, I leveraged off people that do not share their opinion.

Kind of like a wealth master writing a book that shits upon most of the common wealth guru's?
 
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SteveO

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Hey Steve -- I'm actually working on another book right now that is very relevant to your points above and would probably appeal to a lot of readers...and I'm always looking for co-authors... Let me know if you're interested in chatting... :)
Yes, interested.
 

SteveO

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I think that there's a market for those looking to join in syndicate deals. I (and both of you) know that I did a ton of research to choose my first deal. :)
Wait... What? Didn't I tell you that now is not a good time? :)
 
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SteveO

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I did the very same thing with my spec houses (timing) and am reaping the benefits. The time is running out for that play and I will be looking elsewhere in the real estate market. Do you have time to elaborate on how these items affect your buy strategy? I would have to assume some of these factors would need to look worse for the "buys" to come into play later.
Yes.... not buying right now. I liquidated all of the apartment buildings.

The problem with this strategy is that taxes must be paid if there is no 1031 exchange. I did exchange some into a commercial strip center just before they really popped in value. The rest were cashed out and taxes paid. I did purchase the golf course as well but would not wish that kind of work on anyone. :)

The current plan is to just hang on and collect cashflow until the apartment buyers go away.
 

SteveO

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@SteveO I'm a novice and I promise like most people here I have enough understanding of basic finance that I understand that cap rate doesn't matter if if your so under leveraged that a high cap rate meaning cash flow negative or poor is a bad thing.

I'm assuming that your years of experience mean there are variables that my undergrad finance degree don't see. That's what I wanna hear about if you have the time and will accept compensation in the form of fantasmal internet dollars
I have expressed my dismay about cap rates a number of times on this forum. In life conversations, I go on rants with agents and prospective investors. I once dropped an investor client because he insisted on certain cap rates. I told him we would never have one and if we did, the returns would not be as good.

Cashflow properties don't always work out as well as planned. People have ways of playing games with the income and expenses. Agents will work hard to keep you in the belief that you can operate cheaper with more rents and less rent loss. Investors tend to buy into the stories about the sellers inability to work within the "make believe" market norms. The marketing data presented may state 7% vacancy rate and this will be written into the expected numbers. Lenders will be bought in and the investors start leaning that way. In reality the vacancy is probably 8 or 9% and after other forms of rent loss (non-pays, loss to lease, etc) the real number should be 12%.

I find that the cost per unit is easier for me to follow. I can see what else is selling and what they look like. How it all compares in the market. There are no games here.

Rentability or providing something that the tenant really want is key to running a strong rental business. It is easy for people to move and this will increase costs and lower income dramatically. I have found that single story with washer/dryer hookups helped me dramatically. It always felt like a jackpot to find a place without hookups that had enough infrastructure to add them. Strong locations in work-centers really help as well. People tend to be willing to pay more to avoid difficult commutes or live in a nice location.

Cap rates are just made up numbers that don't take everything into consideration. They are easy to manipulate.

There is value if you have enough experience to make your own pro forma. Base it on real numbers with all expenses are considered. The ability to find a real reason to increase income is important as well. Not just the thought that you can increase rents and like magic, nothing else will change.
 
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Hey Steve -- I'm actually working on another book right now that is very relevant to your points above and would probably appeal to a lot of readers...and I'm always looking for co-authors... Let me know if you're interested in chatting... :)


I took delivery, last week, of your Rehab/Cost Estimator books. Looking forward to diving into both of them. When can we expect your latest publication?
 

juan917

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In all forms of investment buying right is more important than selling right.

Definitely. Real estate is a very local market. I'm getting that the threads sentiment is to avoid purchasing at this time but although that may be good advice for the OP's local market, I want to mention that it may not apply to every city in every state in the entire country. Market conditions greatly vary. For the market I live in, I am very optimistic about property values increasing long term.
 
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SteveO

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Cycles:

Everyone knows they are there. Most people don't have the patience to setup for them.

Prices ebb and flo. It is always with the economy but some cycles are local and others national or World. Interest rates, growth in jobs and population, development rates all play a factor. But the human mind plays the largest role. People tend to want when everyone else wants.

The discussion on cycles could be an entire book on its own.
@juan917
Not only do I realize that the cycles are local as well, it was stated so in the original post. The information put forth are observations that I have made. Everyone's experience will be different. Please proceed as YOU see fit.
 

G-Man

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Cap rates are just made up numbers that don't take everything into consideration. They are easy to manipulate.

I should have known it would be something straightforward like: "They don't matter cause they're made up" :rofl:

I find that the cost per unit is easier for me to follow. I can see what else is selling and what they look like. How it all compares in the market. There are no games here.

And this, I'm guessing is why I've seen you mention in multiple threads that the most important thing is knowing the market.

All things said, I suppose this can be viewed as a good thing. If it were as simple as copy pasting a cap rate into a spreadsheet, going to a bank, then cashing the checks, everyone would be doing it, and there'd be no money to be made.

Thanks @SteveO reps++
 

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