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Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

jon.M

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People are missing the tectonic shift that's happening / going to happen in labor. They think it'll be just like the past: jobs go away in one area (farm workers, telephone operators, buggy-whip makers, whatever) so you just go get a job in another area.

I don't think it's going to work that way this time, or soon. There might not BE any jobs in other areas.

The difference this time is that automation could end up displacing ALL low-end workers. Automation willl start out replacing low-skill repetitive jobs, but it will replace more and more jobs as the technology advances. If automation replaces ALL jobs that a low-level employee can hold, those employees will have nowhere to go. Some people are well-matched to driving a truck or picking lettuce, but they are not capable of being a Machine Learning tech or a web designer. Obviously this won't happen overnight, but when automation replaces ALL of those driving/picking jobs, those people will effectively be UN-employable.

That's where I think you have to seriously consider UBI. People on the low end will have no other way to feed themselves. UBI in this case isn't an airy-fairy utopia idea -- it's a last-ditch defense against massive riots and revolt. (Though how you keep those idle hands out of trouble is another question...)
Actually agree with you on the claim that there might not be many jobs left. Although there have been multiple times in the past where people were afraid of change, and the same change actually improved the economy (abolishment of slavery, machines etc.), the past doesn't necessarily predict the future.

That said, people are too quick jumping the gun with UBI. AI takes over? Well, guess we've got to become socialist then! It's like getting a cold and making the decision to start bloodletting just because it feels like it's the only solution.

Because truth to be told, I rarely see any logical arguments for why it would be the best solution. The line of reasoning only goes like this:

1. AI will take all jobs
2. Hence, UBI is the only choice

Ideally, there should be a number of arguments between 1 and 2 but for some reason you never see them mentioned in this debate. IMO it's pure sophistry and all of these billionaires and politicians are outright reckless by proposing that we 'try out' and 'experiment' with it with when they've got nothing to back it up aside from some fearmongering of an AI-dystopia.
 
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garyfritz

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That said, people are too quick jumping the gun with UBI.
Because truth to be told, I rarely see any logical arguments for why it would be the best solution. The line of reasoning only goes like this:
1. AI will take all jobs
2. Hence, UBI is the only choice
Oh there are other choices, like the aforementioned riots and revolts. :rofl: Or the government could make it illegal for automation to put people out of work, but that would be a disaster too.

For argument's sake let's say that AIs do end up taking nearly all jobs that average people or below (IQ <= 100) can handle. Sooner or later I think that will be possible. What would you propose as a solution? There are basically no other jobs for them to take. Those people can't be retrained to be programmers or engineers or (whatever high-IQ jobs are left). The vast majority of them are not going to be entrepreneurial so they're not going to go launch their Fastlane dream. (And nobody would have any money to buy their products anyway.) They have no way to earn a living and feed themselves. If not UBI or equivalent welfare programs, how would you handle the problem?

The only good option I can think of would be to create new jobs. Which is just another welfare program, but better than a "here's your check" setup. Levy a "robot tax" on the wages & benefits that WOULD have been paid to the humans that were replaced. Use that money to pay a survival wage. But not just a welfare check -- people get restless and troublesome if they don't have something useful and fulfilling to do. So "hire" those people to do jobs that haven't been handled well lately: picking up trash, maintaining public parks, rebuilding infrastructure, etc. Unfortunately that's IMHO what they should have done all along with welfare, and, well...
 

socaldude

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That said, people are too quick jumping the gun with UBI. AI takes over? Well, guess we've got to become socialist then! It's like getting a cold and making the decision to start bloodletting just because it feels like it's the only solution.

Yeah, I agree.

Economics is pretty good at allocating resources when things change/evolve. It's just the nature of economics. You could have said the same thing about computers. If anything it actually created more jobs. I think AI will actually create more jobs than it would destroy.

But my two cents is that AI is way overblown and misunderstood. We are not even close to making a reality of what we know is possible with AI. The key would be to get the machine to master it's environment through perception which doesn't currently exist.
 
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ZF Lee

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Yeah, I agree.

Economics is pretty good at allocating resources when things change/evolve. It's just the nature of economics. You could have said the same thing about computers. If anything it actually created more jobs. I think AI will actually create more jobs than it would destroy.

But my two cents is that AI is way overblown and misunderstood. We are not even close to making a reality of what we know is possible with AI. The key would be to get the machine to master it's environment through perception which doesn't currently exist.
I agree as well.

And here's the rub.

Any advancement in any field will never go 100% smoothly. Murphy's law.

From the back of my mind, I can think of the following barriers to tech advancement in general
1. Crap implementation. My business statistics lecturer told the class that 90% of my country still uses Excel for statistics, even the National department! Excel is like stone-age, considering the current state of data science.

2. Politics. A historical example would be the Boxer Rebellion in China, where the poor Imperial family didn't prepare well enough to face the Western intervention. Had instead a rigid government exam system that didn't focus on technology, rather on lipsticking philosophy crap. And contrast the results with its Asian counterpart, Japan ,which was undergoing the Meiji era.

3. Finance. How many dollars actually go into the actual AI work? The Silicon Valley wastage of VC funds have shown us a dark side of that. Basically a high risk of misappropriating funds.

So I think we had better pull our thumbs out of our asses before we can master AI properly.

UBI is a socialist dream and the aftermath of our education system pumping out vast swaths of Marxist adults ill-prepared for the advancing technology world. Instead of adults equipped with degrees in engineering, robotics, and programming, we have an adults armed with degrees in art history, gender studies, and 16th century poetry. Yea, that's why UBI might be ultimately come to pass -- not because its a good idea, but because the people with bad ideas keep pushing more bad ideas to fix their last bad idea.

Now to think of it, we actually have BASIC 1.0 version of UBI in our societies.

In America, that might be Social Security and your welfare checks from the government. Or special housing.

Some may assume that these measures are necessary to help the poorest of the poor. But of course, we know that the folks might as well be Sidwalkers that exploit the government to live for 'free', and have more kids to get more aid and cash. Freeloaders.

Based on these results, why do we expect UBI, the version 2.0 to work any better?

I sometimes hate a democratic system that doesn't take into account the collective intellect of the people. In Athens, it could work because the voters had some of the most balanced and sophisticated education of that time.

EDIT: And now to think of it as well, the use of automation to support UBI is simply the wrong usage of automation in the first place.

Think of it. Someone had to plan, create and maintain the robots or machines. That machine belongs to someone.

So to pull money away to feed someone that didn't contribute to set the machine in the first place is to totally kill the core of business itself, which is to generate wealth. And without wealth, economical transactions and financing fall apart.

And it will be a disincentive for progress and innovation that is not rewarded. Or in other words, how do we reward the winners and penalise the losers?
 
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jon.M

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Oh there are other choices, like the aforementioned riots and revolts. :rofl: Or the government could make it illegal for automation to put people out of work, but that would be a disaster too.

For argument's sake let's say that AIs do end up taking nearly all jobs that average people or below (IQ <= 100) can handle. Sooner or later I think that will be possible. What would you propose as a solution? There are basically no other jobs for them to take. Those people can't be retrained to be programmers or engineers or (whatever high-IQ jobs are left). The vast majority of them are not going to be entrepreneurial so they're not going to go launch their Fastlane dream. (And nobody would have any money to buy their products anyway.) They have no way to earn a living and feed themselves. If not UBI or equivalent welfare programs, how would you handle the problem?

The only good option I can think of would be to create new jobs. Which is just another welfare program, but better than a "here's your check" setup. Levy a "robot tax" on the wages & benefits that WOULD have been paid to the humans that were replaced. Use that money to pay a survival wage. But not just a welfare check -- people get restless and troublesome if they don't have something useful and fulfilling to do. So "hire" those people to do jobs that haven't been handled well lately: picking up trash, maintaining public parks, rebuilding infrastructure, etc. Unfortunately that's IMHO what they should have done all along with welfare, and, well...
But you can't really say that unless you had a crystal ball besides your computer when writing this post. How will the market look like in 40 years from now? Please give me a prediction. What jobs and industries will still exist and have any new ones emerged? What will people and companies buy? Will companies still want to have robot workers?

You DON'T know that. But there's one thing we DO know for certain.

Socialism doesn't work. 100% failure rate. Either it converts back to more of a free-market economy such as in Russia -- through demonstrations, wars and riots -- or it becomes a hellhole where some fat dictator with a taste for Swiss cheese controls everything.

Also, what would the incentives be for companies to automate their production with machines and AI...

... if they still got taxed to fund the income for people who don't provide any value but just sit at home enjoying intimacy with some inflatable robo-doll?

It would be nonsensical and quickly lead to an Animal Farm-like scenario.

What you proposed in your last paragraph seems, to me, more feasible. Rather than replacing humans with machines, and still having to write a paycheck to every one in society, you could just as well give them some low-end job and end up paying just the same amount as before.

In America, that might be Social Security and your welfare checks from the government. Or special housing.

Technically, the difference between social security and UBI is that everyone would be eligible to UBI without fullfilling a specific set of economical requirements. So you could argue UBI is more fair than the monetary help one might receive in welfare states. On a theoretical level. You know what would happen in reality.
 

Kid

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Some may assume that these measures are necessary to help the poorest of the poor. But of course, we know that the folks might as well be Sidwalkers that exploit the government to live for 'free', and have more kids to get more aid and cash. Freeloaders.

The real issue is not being poor. The real reason is not to let people become thieves or burglars to keep being alive.

Its to keep those ,who earn more, safe.


...

Btw. did you know that Thief Simulator has "Very Positive" reception on STEAM [source] ?
 
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theresgot2bemore

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I used to worry about automation, and it kept me awake at night, until I realized things will be fine. Fastlaners will be taken care of its just the process for society as a whole may be a rocky transition to move onto automation.

Oh there are other choices, like the aforementioned riots and revolts. :rofl: Or the government could make it illegal for automation to put people out of work, but that would be a disaster too.

For argument's sake let's say that AIs do end up taking nearly all jobs that average people or below (IQ <= 100) can handle. Sooner or later I think that will be possible. What would you propose as a solution? There are basically no other jobs for them to take. Those people can't be retrained to be programmers or engineers or (whatever high-IQ jobs are left). The vast majority of them are not going to be entrepreneurial so they're not going to go launch their Fastlane dream. (And nobody would have any money to buy their products anyway.) They have no way to earn a living and feed themselves. If not UBI or equivalent welfare programs, how would you handle the problem?

The only good option I can think of would be to create new jobs. Which is just another welfare program, but better than a "here's your check" setup. Levy a "robot tax" on the wages & benefits that WOULD have been paid to the humans that were replaced. Use that money to pay a survival wage. But not just a welfare check -- people get restless and troublesome if they don't have something useful and fulfilling to do. So "hire" those people to do jobs that haven't been handled well lately: picking up trash, maintaining public parks, rebuilding infrastructure, etc. Unfortunately that's IMHO what they should have done all along with welfare, and, well...

We have similar thoughts about the future societal implications. While I'm not a PolitiSci bubba myself this sounds like something that would be discussed by them. Something will be found for these folks to do so don't worry. If they aren't taken care of by the government in some way then we'll all have much bigger problems. For all we know there is probably a D.C. initiative to help folks move on, like the free coding bootcamps offered to former coal mining zones, when the time comes to automate their jobs.

Personally I'm tracking automation's progress to see how fast its moving and the primary jobs that will be taken away. From what I see so far auto jobs will be out real soon and some manual labor ones. I'm curious to see how long until the next news of job replacements, along with what type of jobs, will be.
 

amp0193

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Let technology keep advancing for another 15-20 years and I think you'll be amazed where we are. Hell I'm amazed where we are NOW.


Anyone who wants a peek at the near future, check out Future Timeline.

Mind blowing stuff.

Many astounding opportunities for fastlaners on the horizon.
 

sparechange

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Heres a funny observation I had at work during lunch in our break room with hundreds of people, I noticed that different groups of people (religion/race) generally stuck together.

All the Sikhs in one corner, muslims on the other side, white people all in one group, blacks in a different area. You dont really see different groups of people interacting with each other, which ties into tribalism (the root of racism)

IMO the whole idea of ''identifying'' of being a part of a race/religion is the cause of hatred. Really we are just a bunch of clueless people that are living on a huge rock.

lawl.JPG
 
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sparechange

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Why is it natural instinct to engage with others that are similar? Ya know the saying birds of a flock fly together!?
 

Longinus

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Heres a funny observation I had at work during lunch in our break room with hundreds of people, I noticed that different groups of people (religion/race) generally stuck together.

It's a very unique feature on humans that does not exist on other animals: two total strangers can work together if an imaginary group bonds them. That can be religion, ethnicity, language, but even interest and lifestyle. For example, a German and a French dude are similar biologically, yet they killed each other because the imaginary rules say they live in two different (imaginary) countries. Not a single other living creature sees this difference in countries.

Those differences could be propagated by political parties, preachers, but also even musicians.

This ability to work together with big groups is probably why homo sapiens survived (and probably exterminated) other human species and currently also rules the world. Check the book Sapiens from Yuval Noah Harari for more insights about this, very interesting.

I've learned that if you reach your hand to all other groups, you usually get respect from all of them. Interesting experiment none the less.
 

ZF Lee

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Heres a funny observation I had at work during lunch in our break room with hundreds of people, I noticed that different groups of people (religion/race) generally stuck together.

All the Sikhs in one corner, muslims on the other side, white people all in one group, blacks in a different area. You dont really see different groups of people interacting with each other, which ties into tribalism (the root of racism)

IMO the whole idea of ''identifying'' of being a part of a race/religion is the cause of hatred. Really we are just a bunch of clueless people that are living on a huge rock.

View attachment 22637
When discussing religion, I think we should focus on the more rational aspects such as history, economics (the Islamic and Jewish religions have their ways of combating economic exploitation and inequality) and to a certain aspect scientific (lots of examples of religions contributing to academic studies and designing scientific approaches, heavily ignored area IMO, but I've always enjoyed reading up on Biblical archeology)

That way, our differences mean something better than just a source of enmity. Something much more colourful and beneficial.

Unfortunately, most people still find it easier to make enemies than make friends over a cuppa.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Heres a funny observation I had at work during lunch in our break room with hundreds of people, I noticed that different groups of people (religion/race) generally stuck together.

All the Sikhs in one corner, muslims on the other side, white people all in one group, blacks in a different area. You dont really see different groups of people interacting with each other, which ties into tribalism (the root of racism)

IMO the whole idea of ''identifying'' of being a part of a race/religion is the cause of hatred. Really we are just a bunch of clueless people that are living on a huge rock.

This is truly why nothing shocks me anymore when it comes to human behavior. Most of us are incapable of seeing beyond our conditioning, all of which is rooted in some type of ideological brainwashing either from religion, country, politics, or even, tradition. While my book (Unscripted ) is about business, I've meandered into this truth with how that conditioning has trained us to be slaves to a system. But Unscription goes beyond business -- it's about life itself, how humans behave in groups, how traditions exert controls and limited thinking, and overall, how none of us are truly designed to live authentically.

It's a very unique feature on humans that does not exist on other animals: two total strangers can work together if an imaginary group bonds them. That can be religion, ethnicity, language, but even interest and lifestyle. For example, a German and a French dude are similar biologically, yet they killed each other because the imaginary rules say they live in two different (imaginary) countries. Not a single other living creature sees this difference in countries.

The larger question is, what is that "imaginary bond" that bonds them? Race/Religion/Creed is vermin? Rich people are evil? Peace, not war? This feature also leads to groupthink.

REALLY looking forward to see this documentary:

Looks incredibly interesting. I'm an old WWs buff. WW1 was the worst thing ever, I don't think people even know some of the shit that went down there where most of the fighting was infantry and trench. Back then, tanks where just coming into play. I want to see this, but I'm also afraid it will forever traumatize me. I know some of crap that went down in WW1, having to see it is another thing.
 

Longinus

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Looks incredibly interesting. I'm an old WWs buff. WW1 was the worst thing ever, I don't think people even know some of the sh*t that went down there where most of the fighting was infantry and trench. Back then, tanks where just coming into play. I want to see this, but I'm also afraid it will forever traumatize me. I know some of crap that went down in WW1, having to see it is another thing.

The trailer alone is striking, see the emotions on the face of the soldiers who are just coming out of the trenches. Not a single Hollywood movie can come that close. It was beyond horror.

The podcasts of Dan Carlin give a very good impression about how it was. He's a great narrator too.

Here's part 1 (total 6 parts of each ~4 hours, but worth every second):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFMT_BVBBsA


Hardcore History 50 – Blueprint for Armageddon I
 
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Longinus

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The larger question is, what is that "imaginary bond" that bonds them? Race/Religion/Creed is vermin? Rich people are evil? Peace, not war? This feature also leads to groupthink.

That wasn't the point, because groupthinking isn't something bad. Just an advantage if you understand this phenomena in the modern world. Humans are probably biologically not able to not groupthink.
 

sparechange

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MJ DeMarco said:
The larger question is, what is that "imaginary bond" that bonds them? Race/Religion/Creed is vermin? Rich people are evil? Peace, not war? This feature also leads to groupthink.

I would think its related to people finding something in common about themselves with another person.

Pretend you meet someone that grew up in the same hometown as you, boom you have a ''connection'' with that person, in generally people bond better imo when they have similarities.

Heres a simple example, ya meet a guy at a bar that mentioned he owns a business, wow! Hey me to! Ever hear about TMF ?

Scenario 2, you hear a person complaining about they're job & you are a business owner, you have 0 connection to this person and carry on drinking your beer watching the game while ignoring them.
 

amp0193

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This ability to work together with big groups is probably why homo sapiens survived (and probably exterminated) other human species and currently also rules the world. Check the book Sapiens from Yuval Noah Harari for more insights about this, very interesting.

This book was worldview altering for me.

I went from blindly accepting the religion I was raised in, to now stepping outside of it, looking at it objectively for what it is.

Not good or bad. It just exists, and this is it's purpose, and here's how I will and won't allow it to fit into my life.

And not just religion... but all of the invisible, imaginary forces that exist, only because a group of people think they exist.
 
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Longinus

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This book was worldview altering for me.

I went from blindly accepting the religion I was raised in, to now stepping outside of it, looking at it objectively for what it is.

Not good or bad. It just exists, and this is it's purpose, and here's how I will and won't allow it to fit into my life.

And not just religion... but all of the invisible, imaginary forces that exist, only because a group of people think they exist.

That's better explained than me, thanks.

What also was worldview altering is that "religions" don't have to be like christianity/islam/judaism/... but most state systems work as religions as well. Communism is some kind of religion with their own gods and saints (Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mao), rituals, preachers and beliefs. The same can be said about capitalism, nationalism, but even nowadays worship of instagram influencers, etc.

The model of a religion is very universal.
 

sparechange

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With religion like amp said , he blindly accepted it, think about that! It’s more of where your brought up, have ya ever seen a white Sikh or Muslim? I’m in Canada the most diverse place in the world and have never seen it!
 

amp0193

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The model of a religion is very universal.

It's also allowed me to see deeper into people's behaviors.

A lot of what people do is evolutionary/biological, acting on very primal urges, dating back a million years.

Understanding this, it's much harder to judge the actions of others.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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sparechange

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I don't follow football at all but know of Michael Vick, not sure how he can goto prison and get back in the game after his case of dog fighting, he should be shot
 
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XFL have announced the first 8 cities to have teams and could possibly have a TV deal with NBC, will be interesting to see if Vince McMahon gets traction with the league this time around, there's been enough scandals with NFL lately that the doors open for them.
 

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I
I'm now traveling in the US and it's my first time here. I've been to Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah (just the Monument Valley and surroundings so just a tiny tiny portion of the state) and now Hawaii.

My observation - and I hope that nobody from the US will get mad at me lol - is that quality of life in the mainland US (I'm only talking about the places I visited, and I'm not sure about Hawaii yet as I just got here) seems to be lower than in Europe and many other countries I've visited. I thought that people saying that were exaggerating but now I tend to agree.

Obviously, this is just a very surface observation of a traveler, not a person living here. The US is huge and I'm sure there are many awesome places to live there. Based on where I've been, here are a few outsider observations about the local quality of life:
  • Homeless people (or people who appear to be homeless) and beggars are very visible. I don't think I've ever seen that many homeless people in other countries except for some poor countries like Morocco.
  • I find it much harder to be healthy here (again, I'm referring to the mainland US, as Hawaii seems to be much better in this aspect). Almost all of the restaurants serve fast food, there's a lot of unhealthy stuff added to even the most basic products (I don't think I've ever seen stuff as weird as blueberry-flavored almonds), and unless it's Whole Foods (which is super expensive), in a supermarket you have a much, much bigger selection of junk food than healthy stuff (I can't believe how many flavors of Oreos, M&Ms, etc. people actually need).
  • Never before I've seen so many morbidly obese or otherwise unhealthy-looking people. Then again, when you see people having breakfast at 8 am in McDonald's, it's pretty clear why that's the case.
  • Again, just my perception limited to just a few places I've been too: it seems to me that food here (and this ties directly to the quality of life) is not that much about quality - it's more about gorging on as much sugary/greasy/etc. stuff as possible than actually enjoying it. The Mediterranean countries (which I often visit) are the opposite. There's more emphasis on food quality, the cuisine is so much healthier, you're supposed to eat slowly and enjoy it.
  • The cities are not walkable (though still much better than in the Middle East). I find it super weird that there's not a single shop, restaurant, or anything like that for miles - just homes. I thought that it was an exaggeration that you absolutely need a car in the US but now I see why.
  • The infrastructure is very dated. Some gas stations look like they're abandoned or not renovated in decades (and man I hate the pre-paid system), my debit card is sometimes not working at all (this has never happened to me anywhere else in the world, including some very exotic places), I have very bad reception on my phone and mobile Internet is slow even in a big city. But maybe T-Mobile in the US is just sh*t.
  • The obsession with the military is disconcerting. But that's a sensitive topic so let's leave it at that.
  • Just a random observation: not sure if it's only Delta Airlines, but I was shocked that all the flight attendants were 50-60+, and some of them were obese. I've never seen anything like this on any other airline. Flight attendants are supposed to be fit and healthy to be able to help passengers.
On the plus side, the people are very nice, laid-back, and friendly (except for the Border Patrol), it's very easy to drive (love the wide streets and roads), the wide open spaces are incredible (it's crazy that there are so many national parks and monuments here), and the diversity is very cool. I still enjoyed my stay in the US and felt comfortable in most places, but I don't think I'd like to live there (or to be more specific - live in the places that I visited).

And again - I might have had bad luck or maybe I went to the wrong places. Anyway, it's my impression after my first visit, so it might still change if I go back or see other places.

I guess that it could be a good idea for a thread: which places in the world offer the best quality of life and why, so if anyone's interested, I can start it as I really like talking about this topic.
would imagine you are no longer in Hawaii....am I correct? Did you go to Eldorado NM, it is 30 min drive from Santa Fe...and I believe beautiful in winter :) long open roads...
 

MJ DeMarco

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When I click on "Thread tools" in a thread, I get the option to promote it. What is that?
 

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