Planning is Worthless... (LOL)

[GuestUser155]

"No sales plan survives contact with the customer."

You hear it over and over on this forum: "I had no idea my business was gonna end up like this," "I had everything setup perfectly, but I didn't get any sales," etc.

People get too wrapped up with everything going "to plan" that they forget how short our sight really is.

We can't predict everything that'll happen to our business, just like we can't predict a chess game.

Don't do it.

It's wasting time and it's retarded.

Instead: Find the core of your business and build around it.

To steal an example -- Southwest Airlines' core is to be "THE low-fare airline."

From that simple idea it can start branching out and making the right decisions as they come up.

To be "THE low-fare airline" they're going to have to start cutting costs everywhere. Every decision should be preceded with "Will this contribute to us being THE low-fare airline?"

If it won't, trash it.

To make sales you're going to have to provide value to your customer. Every decision should be preceded with "Will this contribute to my sales?"

If it won't, trash it.

Keep it lean.

Keep it simple, retard.



This is a very very very close rehash from Made to Stick, pg. 27-30 that @devine recommended. The book is more focused on good titles/copy than core intent, but I wanted to share this -- I hear it a lot from the experienced guys, but it's not said enough.

 

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[AgainstAllOdds]

1. Make a plan.
2. Start selling.
3. Reiterate plan.
4. Sell better.
5. Reiterate plan.
6. Repeat.
7. Make $$$$

You need to have a plan to start with step #1. Also, having a good plan will get you to step #7 a lot faster than having a "screw it let's do it" plan.

Planning's not a negative. The opportunity cost of over-planning is.

 

[minirich]

“Plans are of little importance, but planning is essential.”
― Winston Churchill

If you print out a plan you can already through it away, because it is obsolete.
- Me
But...
If you have no plan, you cannot improve it.
Nothing improved is a better nothing, but still nothing.

We can't predict everything that'll happen to our business, just like we can't predict a chess game.

Don't do it.

Yes, you can't predict a chess games, but you start with a plan, and after every move you adapt your plan.

 

[ApparentHorizon]

My grandfather told me a story once...

2 researchers created a mathematical model of aerodynamics, which seemed fairly logical and straightforward at first glance.

It applied to wind patterns, airplanes and windmills within negligible margins of error.

However, when they observed a bumblebee, they said, "That's not right. Our calculations show that it's impossible for that bee to fly!"

"Dear sir!" exclaimed the local reporter, "we are all seeing the bee suspended [in midair]. Perhaps it's not the bees who are wrong, but your models."

 

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[Andy Black]

What works for me is:

1. Pick an interesting direction.
   
   
2. Get started.
   
   
3. Keep going.

Columbus style (as per http://paulgraham.com/ambitious.html):

Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with deceptively small things. Want to dominate microcomputer software? Start by writing a Basic interpreter for a machine with a few thousand users. Want to make the universal web site? Start by building a site for Harvard undergrads to stalk one another.

Empirically, it's not just for other people that you need to start small. You need to for your own sake. Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew at first how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something. Maybe it's a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambition, the longer it's going to take, and the further you project into the future, the more likely you'll get it wrong.

I think the way to use these big ideas is not to try to identify a precise point in the future and then ask yourself how to get from here to there, like the popular image of a visionary. You'll be better off if you operate like Columbus and just head in a general westerly direction. Don't try to construct the future like a building, because your current blueprint is almost certainly mistaken. Start with something you know works, and when you expand, expand westward.

The popular image of the visionary is someone with a clear view of the future, but empirically it may be better to have a blurry one.​

 

[nradam123]

You need to have a plan to start with step #1. Also, having a good plan will get you to step #7 a lot faster than having a "screw it let's do it" plan.

Is that in reference to Richard Branson's book? lol
Its a great book, but he seems to make a ton of choices based on gut feelings.

@Akakoc
I get what you meant. Core values should not change.
Basically because you are designing the business system to meet a core value, and you should not lose sight of it.

But like @AgainstAllOdds said, business planning is an iterative process. Its not plan and pray for things to work out.

I know half a dozen people who literally lost 2-3 years because of weak understanding of business planning. I don't know much either but I am learning from hanging around with them.

Business planning goes deep, it is something which gives you a clear advantage from entrepreneurs who did not take the time to learn it. And 90% of new startup founders are not good at it, because they are new in the game.

A key component of a business plan is to understand your margin drivers and estimates, which will help you forecast your sales, profit and loss statement, cash flow statement and ultimately your balance sheet. Your balance sheet will tell the health of your business from a financial standpoint. Another important part of the plan is milestones and metrics, which shows your level of execution. These are important to understand where you are in your business progress at any given time. Also, make sure that you revise your business plan monthly or atleast periodically.

I consider economy, finance, accounts and trade that comes along with business similar to the responsibilities which come with having a puppy lol. You will have to feed your puppy and wash the shit, its definitely not fun but you are going to have a messy home if you dont do it And eventually, you will have to master it.

 

[Mattie]

retard.

This word is outdated. It goes back to the 1970's when I first heard it. You might want to update your vocabulary. Especially in a business forum.

 

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[GuestUser155]

1. Make a plan.
2. Start selling.
3. Reiterate plan.
4. Sell better.
5. Reiterate plan.
6. Repeat.
7. Make $$$$

You need to have a plan to start with step #1. Also, having a good plan will get you to step #7 a lot faster than having a "screw it let's do it" plan.

Planning's not a negative. The opportunity cost of over-planning is.

The way most people use plan (and as it's defined): "a detailed proposal for doing or achieving something."

All of my mentors have told me one version or another of "A good plan executed today is better than a great plan executed next week." It's good to have an idea to know what it is you want to do and how everything works, but the point is you can't be a "grand planner."

If you're any good at thinking on your feet, something thorough is just wasting time.

“Plans are of little importance, but planning is essential.”
― Winston Churchill

If you print out a plan you can already through it away, because it is obsolete.
- Me
But...
If you have no plan, you cannot improve it.
Nothing improved is a better nothing, but still nothing.


Yes, you can't predict a chess games, but you start with a plan, and after every move you adapt your plan.

This is true. I'm afraid I've picked the wrong word to use, judging by the reactions.

What works for me is:

1. Pick an interesting direction.
   
   
2. Get started.
   
   
3. Keep going.

Columbus style (as per http://paulgraham.com/ambitious.html):

Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with deceptively small things. Want to dominate microcomputer software? Start by writing a Basic interpreter for a machine with a few thousand users. Want to make the universal web site? Start by building a site for Harvard undergrads to stalk one another.

Empirically, it's not just for other people that you need to start small. You need to for your own sake. Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew at first how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something. Maybe it's a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambition, the longer it's going to take, and the further you project into the future, the more likely you'll get it wrong.

I think the way to use these big ideas is not to try to identify a precise point in the future and then ask yourself how to get from here to there, like the popular image of a visionary. You'll be better off if you operate like Columbus and just head in a general westerly direction. Don't try to construct the future like a building, because your current blueprint is almost certainly mistaken. Start with something you know works, and when you expand, expand westward.

The popular image of the visionary is someone with a clear view of the future, but empirically it may be better to have a blurry one.​

Always appreciate your posts.

This does lend credence to keeping it simple and isn't wrong, but let's play devil's advocate:

Christopher Columbus, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg didn't have a "master plan," but they surely must have had an impossible goal to strive towards.

Aim for the moon and you'll travel a long distance, aim for Pluto and you'll go an even farther distance.

Is that in reference to Richard Branson's book? lol
Its a great book, but he seems to make a ton of choices based on gut feelings.

@Akakoc
I get what you meant. Core values should not change.
Basically because you are designing the business system to meet a core value, and you should not lose sight of it.

But like @AgainstAllOdds said, business planning is an iterative process. Its not plan and pray for things to work out.

I know half a dozen people who literally lost 2-3 years because of weak understanding of business planning. I don't know much either but I am learning from hanging around with them.

Business planning goes deep, it is something which gives you a clear advantage from entrepreneurs who did not take the time to learn it. And 90% of new startup founders are not good at it, because they are new in the game.

A key component of a business plan is to understand your margin drivers and estimates, which will help you forecast your sales, profit and loss statement, cash flow statement and ultimately your balance sheet. Your balance sheet will tell the health of your business from a financial standpoint. Another important part of the plan is milestones and metrics, which shows your level of execution. These are important to understand where you are in your business progress at any given time. Also, make sure that you revise your business plan monthly or atleast periodically.

I consider economy, finance, accounts and trade that comes along with business similar to the responsibilities which come with having a puppy lol. You will have to feed your puppy and wash the shit, its definitely not fun but you are going to have a messy home if you dont do it And eventually, you will have to master it.

Maybe I've been reading too much and not executing enough.

It's important to understand all of those factors, no doubt, but it's not a necessity to understand them yourself.

If you have a team of world class employees, all you need is "Commander's Intent" -- to borrow from the book.

This word is outdated. It goes back to the 1970's when I first heard it. You might want to update your vocabulary. Especially in a business forum.

"It's just words, folks. Just words."

 

[Kung Fu Steve]

Just out of curiosity... how's that no-planning thing going for you?

 

[GuestUser155]

Just out of curiosity... how's that no-planning thing going for you?

Better than I first expected.

 

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[MB2]

More than a plan what matter is the outcome.If you have a crystal clear outcome then you can adapt a plan when previous one fails.Knowing the outcome is a crucial component

 

[Kung Fu Steve]

Better than I first expected.

Good for you! I can't wait to hear your story!

 

[Joe Walsh]

Planning's not a negative. The opportunity cost of over-planning is.

@AgainstAllOdds I totally agree with that statement.

Planning is retarded? Hardly. Over-planning to the point of inaction is. After having started dozens of businesses (hotels, restaurants, bars, retail, manufacturing), here is the planning process that has worked well for me:

START-UP COSTS- What is it going to cost to start this business?
OPERATIONAL COSTS- What is it going to cost to keep this business operational (monthly/yearly)?
ESTIMATED SALES/PROFITS- How much products/services will I sell? I much will I net after expenses?

These estimates are exactly that: estimates. Yes, you will most likely underestimate costs and overestimate sales. But to not go through this exercise before setting off on your business endeavor is unwise.

Once you are under way with your business, you will start to see how you need to adjust. Did you forget something? Are your customers telling you that they want something slightly different? Once you start gaining this experience and feedback, reevaluate your business plan and make the needed adjustments. Throw out what isn't working and do more of what is working. This is an ongoing process but one that will keep you moving onwards and upwards. Good luck and have fun.

 

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[Kenflik]

This word is outdated. It goes back to the 1970's when I first heard it. You might want to update your vocabulary. Especially in a business forum.

I agree when used as a noun, not as a verb. Used in this thread in context it is acceptable.

 

[Johnny boy]

Just out of curiosity... how's that no-planning thing going for you?

better than he had planned

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Just out of curiosity... how's that no-planning thing going for you?

Better than I first expected.

So much so that he got triggered and left the forum a thousandaire.

 

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[Johnny boy]

On one end I meet intelligent people who are castrated by fear and a need to fit in, who have qualifications and still don't take chances because they are used to following directions. They have been fooled into thinking people who win are all experts, and they always catch a case of imposter syndrome.

On the other end, I meet people who have zero ability to think ahead. They are always doing things, having a great time, taking risks and sometimes they get ahead, but are always "blindsided" by obviously foreseeable problems and spin their wheels. They build their sandcastles too close to the waves and it always washes away so they make no progress. They learn quickly but they never seem to learn to plan. They always catch a case of shiny object syndrome.

The reserved intelligent people could learn a thing or two from the shoot-from-the-hip guys. The shoot-from-the-hip guys could learn a thing or two from the reserved intelligent people.

Ying and Yang baby, that's all it is. The same goes for optimism and pessimism, selfishness and selflessness, time and money.

Plan, and then shoot from the hip and repeat. Think of all the ways it can go wrong, then move forward anyways. Help others to help yourself. Spend your time to get money and then use money to get your time. You can fail from planning too much, you can fail from planning too little.

The best business owners I know are balanced when it comes to this. They will say "F*ck it" and go do something incredible at the drop of a hat, but will spend 12 hours editing a contract template to make sure it's bulletproof and think of all the angles something could go wrong. I don't know if I am optimistic or pessimistic. I am sure I'll have much more massive success in the near future, but I also think God will come down to smite me and my business at any moment and I need to plan like a motherfcker to avoid chaos taking it's toll on me.

 

[Mathuin]

On one end I meet intelligent people who are castrated by fear and a need to fit in, who have qualifications and still don't take chances because they are used to following directions. They have been fooled into thinking people who win are all experts, and they always catch a case of imposter syndrome.

On the other end, I meet people who have zero ability to think ahead. They are always doing things, having a great time, taking risks and sometimes they get ahead, but are always "blindsided" by obviously foreseeable problems and spin their wheels. They build their sandcastles too close to the waves and it always washes away so they make no progress. They learn quickly but they never seem to learn to plan. They always catch a case of shiny object syndrome.

The reserved intelligent people could learn a thing or two from the shoot-from-the-hip guys. The shoot-from-the-hip guys could learn a thing or two from the reserved intelligent people.

Ying and Yang baby, that's all it is. The same goes for optimism and pessimism, selfishness and selflessness, time and money.

Plan, and then shoot from the hip and repeat. Think of all the ways it can go wrong, then move forward anyways. Help others to help yourself. Spend your time to get money and then use money to get your time. You can fail from planning too much, you can fail from planning too little.

The best business owners I know are balanced when it comes to this. They will say "f*ck it" and go do something incredible at the drop of a hat, but will spend 12 hours editing a contract template to make sure it's bulletproof and think of all the angles something could go wrong. I don't know if I am optimistic or pessimistic. I am sure I'll have much more massive success in the near future, but I also think God will come down to smite me and my business at any moment and I need to plan like a motherfcker to avoid chaos taking it's toll on me.

Great post, thanks Johnny.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

On one end I meet intelligent people who are castrated by fear and a need to fit in, who have qualifications and still don't take chances because they are used to following directions. They have been fooled into thinking people who win are all experts, and they always catch a case of imposter syndrome.

On the other end, I meet people who have zero ability to think ahead. They are always doing things, having a great time, taking risks and sometimes they get ahead, but are always "blindsided" by obviously foreseeable problems and spin their wheels. They build their sandcastles too close to the waves and it always washes away so they make no progress. They learn quickly but they never seem to learn to plan. They always catch a case of shiny object syndrome.

The reserved intelligent people could learn a thing or two from the shoot-from-the-hip guys. The shoot-from-the-hip guys could learn a thing or two from the reserved intelligent people.

Ying and Yang baby, that's all it is. The same goes for optimism and pessimism, selfishness and selflessness, time and money.

Plan, and then shoot from the hip and repeat. Think of all the ways it can go wrong, then move forward anyways. Help others to help yourself. Spend your time to get money and then use money to get your time. You can fail from planning too much, you can fail from planning too little.

The best business owners I know are balanced when it comes to this. They will say "f*ck it" and go do something incredible at the drop of a hat, but will spend 12 hours editing a contract template to make sure it's bulletproof and think of all the angles something could go wrong. I don't know if I am optimistic or pessimistic. I am sure I'll have much more massive success in the near future, but I also think God will come down to smite me and my business at any moment and I need to plan like a motherfcker to avoid chaos taking it's toll on me.

Perfect summary. Gotta be a balance of opposing forces, like an investor who is both conservative and aggressive.

 

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