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Opinions on unmanned aerial flight systems (drones) and their development

#nowhere

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Hey guys,


just had an idea. I know that the kind of services I want to provide are provided in the market yet. So market testing is not necessary.

It’s about drones. I’m from Germany and here drones are used for tasks surrounding work environments, or public tasks.


-Farming sector uses drones for pest control

-Public institutions use it for control of their higher buildings or avalanche protection (avalanche protection walls in the summer, snow situation during winter)

-corporations use it to make “virtual reality” pictures of their strip mines or inspection of masts and wind turbines

-private customs want to have pictures of themselves in different occasions

-heat images of different buildings

-wire shifting is done with the help of drones


So the application fields are broad.


The licensing process is a bit more difficult:


- You need something like an approval that you are able to fly a drone (physically(eyes, health in general), and practically). You have to pass a little practical exam. I’ve read that it’s not that hard. You have to show that you can fly without trouble. Not comparable to a drivers license!

- You need an insurance (120$ / year with an insurance sum of 5 Million $)

- You need a permission to take off for every separate state what costs 200 bucks averaged over 16 states. It’s valid 2 years.

- You are not allowed to fly over military terrain, public events (without permission or order) and you have to respect image copyrights of individuals.


But it’s not just the service of flying a drone that is interesting me. It’s the whole service with picture and film editing and drone developing.


So far so good we’re are in the slowlane: Exploding intrinsic value through higher salaries. Ok, ok.


And from this point, there are two opportunities that I would like to discuss with you:


A) I could purchase a professional drone for 20 grand, with all equipment needed, a good camera and so on and so on. Prices realized are 1000-2000k/day (If you fly for big corporations or mining companies it tends to be the latter), so the investment would redeem fast. (If I’m able to acquire customers). Hourly rates start at 250 bucks.

B) I would dive into drone development on a frame of milled aluminium, fiberglass and so on and so forth. But it would take longer for me to make money with the service. (in europe there are several small firms that develop drones already. Research showed that)


Point A pros: faster “freedom”, but with big upfront cost. (also potential fastlane if I’m able to acquire bigger market shares with more staff that flys)

Downside A: 20k lost.

Point B pros: definitely product development and a potential fastlane (but strong and big competition)

Downside B: No initial income


Seen of the CENTS commandments I would say:


Need is there, market approved

(don’t know what happens if big logistic firms players like google enter the market)


Entry

(I think in both cases process for the development of a service (A) or a product (B) or both is needed. Entry barrier is of a midsized height I would guess because of upfront investment and/or development skills. I’m mechanical engineer… Would know the direction to start.)


Control

(If I develop myself, Control is fully there. The laws are the part I’m concerned about. I think that they will get looser rather than tighter in respect of drone flights)


Time … You can’t cut your own time from the business. Or I don’t see the possibility maybe you do?


Scalable. I would say that this is scalable. In both cases. Scalable in number of employees or scalable in sales or both.


My questions to you are:


X) What do you think about the development of future laws on unmanned flight systems? Will they get tighter?

Y) Do I have a big thinking error somewhere?

Z) As long as classic product development is possible and can be fastlane… I know this. But do you think that A) before B) or B) before A)? I’m not completely sure because 20k is a big investment.

Z1) Do big corporations tend to do it themselves in the future or do they hire somebody? In other words: How would you anticipate the market?


I know that the answers to these questions cannot be made under certainty, because unmanned aerial systems is a whole new field of technical development. I would appreciate to hear your opinions on this. Maybe that sparks some new ideas for others… who knows.


I hope a useful discussion on this “new” technology evolves.
 
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Mac

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You can buy a drone for a lot cheaper than 20 grand. They're selling some for around $300 these days, and they aren't just crappy ones. They're able to reach very high altitudes.

As for errors, that's just the nature of business. You're going to come across problems. The only way to find out is by diving in. I know that an aerial photography service here in Canada received funding from one of the investors on Dragons Den and they're currently scaling it to reach all across Canada.
 

Yoda

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TheNextTrump

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I'd buy one of those little guys strictly for testing. Getting the feel for how they operate.

Then once your comfortable buy the commercial / industrial drone.

I think it's smart to budget the 20k for the drone, as long as you can operate it and figure it out with out crashing it into a lake lol.

We have about 4 different guys / business's in my city that offer drone services.

1st 2 use the little phantoms. JUNK. Decent machines, but junk compared to anything legit.

other 2 have $2k-$3k units. I could shut shit down if I came in the market with any of the drones over 10k. They are a completely different ball game.


Then I found some $30,000+ units, MAN

If I had an extra $500k to kick around I'd buy 10 30k units, hire ten professioanls to operate them and take over the entire DRONE SERVICE market in the U S of A.


Easy money, and think how much you can charge. Just doing videos for City Promo videos across the nation youd make your money back.
 
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David Young

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Definitely an expanding market but the legislation will negotiable change as the law catches up with technology.
Unless you are experienced with the design and build of this sort of kit I would go the 20 k route. However, first I would consider hiring a 20K unit either to test or to use on a job.
 

#nowhere

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First: Thank you guys! :) Your opinions are appreciated much!

I will quote Yoda's post only and say what I have to say in relation to it. I think then everything is covered.


Example: http://www.dji.com/product/phantom-3-pro

Great drone, excellent camera, not too terribly difficult to learn, less than $400 now I think, though internationally may cost more.

I'm not totally sure if these drones can do the same works as the industry related drones. The industry related drones wire cables and do all the things mentioned in the opening post. Are those DJI drones not just for "fun" and filming?

You are right, that this would be the way to go, to test the idea.

I think it's scalable, although it is connected to human capital.

Building of such a drone:

I know a small company in austria that is producing drones in a shop environment. Two sons and the dad (engineer).
They mill the wholes they need into aluminium and fiberglas plates and build an octagon out of it. Then they fit the parts into that "cage". The milling process can be outsourced without buying a milling machine. The assembly... yes... You can hold a screwdriver?

-Cables can be installed on your own
-Motors/engines are parts that need to be sourced outside
-Camera: established manufacurers are on the market yet
-Software and controlling can be borrowed from the model making area
-Only thing I would need help is to integrate GPS into the process/machine (Could be a bit more programming work..)

So I outlied the whole way to it...

And again two questions:

A)
How do you see the law development in the future?
B) How do you see the market development in the future? (because it is a new high-tech trend..)

Scalable through human capital and maybe a book or SAAS or something on building/developing/flying /using whatever the drone.
 
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David Young

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One consideration is as the law develops there will inevitably be more conflicts. A black box recorder specifically for drones would be useful as the flight data (height altitude etc) recorded in a secure format would evidence in the dispute. no idea if one exists but it would be of use.
 
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downpaymentblues

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X) What do you think about the development of future laws on unmanned flight systems? Will they get tighter?
They will definitely get tighter. Dobrindt (minister of transport) is planning to restrict drone usage and want's a driver license for it. If this will come through, drones will get very unpopular for hobbyists. The overall barrier of entry will most certainly rise in the future - which must not be bad.

The market will also definitely grow, mostly for commercial/industrial usage. I believe the most money will be made by manufacturers and not by operators. Compare it to the aviation market: Airbus and Boeing are still getting big money, whereas their customers (the airlines) suffer under heavy pricing pressure.

Additionaly, I wouldn't focus on targeting aerial photography as a market, but focus on targeting logistics.

btw: Where from Germany are you from? I am in aerospace engineering and may know a thing or two. Hit me up, if you have questions.
 
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#nowhere

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They will definitely get tighter. Dobrindt (minister of transport) is planning to restrict drone usage and want's a driver license for it. If this will come through, drones will get very unpopular for hobbyists. The overall barrier of entry will most certainly rise in the future - which must not be bad.

The market will also definitely grow, mostly for commercial/industrial usage. I believe the most money will be made by manufacturers. Compare it to the aviation market: Airbus and Boeing are still getting big money, whereas their customers (the airlines) suffer under heavy pricing pressure.

Additionaly, I wouldn't focus on targeting aerial photography as a market, but focus on targeting logistics.

btw: Where from Germany are you from? I am in aerospace engineering and may know a thing or two. Hit me up, if you have questions.

On driver's license:

Think this is impossible due to the many many hobbyists that fly around with model helicopters and planes...

On the order of action:

Services, may it be photography or anything else, just to found the development business. In a high professional niche (commercial). Not the "niche" DIJ is targeting. At the moment it is possible to use the loose law restrictions, temporarily to raise capital imho.

Im from the sorrounding of Brunswick, made my studies there at the technical university...

One consideration is as the law develops there will inevitably be more conflicts. A black box recorder specifically for drones would be useful as the flight data (height altitude etc) recorded in a secure format would evidence in the dispute. no idea if one exists but it would be of use.

Opportunity... !
 

David Young

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Heres another one- security. CCTV camera are standard these days in the UK and are often a pre-requisite for insurance. However they are limited. A self-guided drone that could respond to pir or other alarm would be useful. The hardwares there but would need the software.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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David Young

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Saw something relevant on the techcrunch site today. A company has a received a chunk of funding for a gadget that detects drones entering the local vicinity - value in anti-drone tech as well!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

#nowhere

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Get cheaper drone and start with easier work. Think creative, bring value. Don't assume the world is waiting for your 20k drone.

You are totally right. Nevertheless will this drone services disappear and/or get common (in a sense that everyone is providing services or has an own drone..).

=> Decrease in price and or demand.

You're right if you say: provide value first and then develop as you go.

Key takeaway: Don't dabble around in big fantasies. Start small and then make it bigger as you proceed. (Never forget to add value)

Thanks for the great contributions, guys! :)
 
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Clayton

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X) What do you think about the development of future laws on unmanned flight systems? Will they get tighter?

I'm from the USA, and as you probably know, they are getting both tighter and looser here. We used to not be able to use drones at all commercially, but now you can get licenses. On the other hands, there are always new rules popping up. In general, I would say the rules around drone operation will continue to become better defined.

Y) Do I have a big thinking error somewhere?

I don't know if it's a big thinking error, but when considering "Entry" in CENTS, I'd consider $20k and a little bit of training to be a very low barrier to entry.

Z) As long as classic product development is possible and can be fastlane… I know this. But do you think that A) before B) or B) before A)? I’m not completely sure because 20k is a big investment.

I think I'd go with whatever will be the best fastlane business. $20k may seem like a lot to you personally, but it's not a big investment business-wise.

Z1) Do big corporations tend to do it themselves in the future or do they hire somebody? In other words: How would you anticipate the market?

It'd be like any other piece of specialty equipment. If the company uses it enough, they'll do it in house. If not, they'll hire someone. I went to school with a couple of the guys that started AgPixel. They've invested quite heavily in custom programming that they're hoping will make them one of the premier providers of agricultural imaging in the US. Time will tell, but they seem to be off to a good start.
 
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7.62x51

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The entry barrier will only get lower as more people get interested in drones and costs get lower.

Drone operators will be equivalent to wedding photographers.
 

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