Luck shouldn't play such a big role in financial success

[Kak]

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

1. You can always immigrate... Heck, I am looking at immigration TO less developed parts of the world specifically for opportunity. Never before has the economy reached across sovereign borders like it does today.

2. You have a HUGE part in making sure you are a healthy person. Making good, and healthy choices goes a LONG way.

3. Making good choices for your healthy body can also affect your mind. Your mind is YOURS to direct. You can head down a toxic path or a path towards good. A LOT OF THIS IS CHOICE.

4. Once again this is part of the game. There is opportunity in lack of infrastructure… Have you ever asked who is FOUNDATIONALLY responsible for infrastructure? The answer is the industrious entrepreneur, not government.

5. If you have internet, you have access to both toxic and life changing education for the price of the connection and the device itself. Like anything though, this education must be made a priority by the individual worried about not having it. It is choice.

6. Equality of opportunity is an entirely separate topic on its own. Sure some people are born with an advantage over others. That isn't wrong though. I have earned the ability to give that head start to my kids. That said the 2 of the 5 richest people I know, and these people are worth like mega yacht, private jet money, started from nothing. One of my mentors and best friends literally grew up in "the projects."

7. Respect and involvement of others is EARNED not gifted for no reason.

It isn't luck. We can all play the cards we are dealt and end up wealthy. Some get a better head start than others, so what, good for them. Your goal should be doing the same for your kids instead of bitching about how life isn't fair. Life certainly doesn't treat views like this to a great deal of money.

 

[xmartel]

Your ascribing way to much to luck.

1-6 covers most people in most Western nations. And yet what have most people done with this "luck"? Answer: Nothing.

I could see 7 as being more rare. However this is not the responsibility of your social circle. People don't have a responsibility to support you with experience and money. You have the responsibility.
And not only that, but your social circle is a choice. Who do you CHOOSE to surround yourself with?

Luck doesn't dictate success. There are no doubt luck events in life. Good and Bad. But what matters is what you do with that luck event. Are you prepared to meet bad luck events? Are you prepared to meet good luck events? And when you do, what do you do with it? Do you take action?

Luck events are easy, the hard part is all the work you have to do after the fact in capitalizing on the luck event.

I have no problem with your idea for creating a platform for bringing people together. It could be a great idea. But stop chalking so much up to luck. CHOICES have far greater impact on your success.

By giving luck so much weight, you're stealing credit from the hard work and choices successful people have made. And you're setting up people who aren't yet successful to not be successful. You're just continuing the brainwashing that luck is the overriding factor. And in a system where your success is luck dependant, then why would you ever try hard to be successful? You might as well just sit and wait for the "luck" to hit you. And then complain that you aren't lucky and those successful #$%&* were just lucky and that's the only difference between you and them.
This mentality is becoming a cancer in our society and is robbing people of their potential.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

I think luck plays too much of a role in whether you survive as an infant past 1 month or not too.

It plays too much of a role on whether you are born with significant disabilities.

It plays too much of a role in whether you die in a car crash.

But guess what...
We can’t do shit about that!

Focus on what you can control.

While you’re worrying and philosophizing about luck, someone with bad circumstances is busy working and becoming more successful than you.

Stephen Hawking agreed with me about this, and he had ALS and couldn’t move. Look up Jason Becker too (he’s a guitar player) - he is still composing music and selling albums.

 

[maverick]

Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of people in your social circle.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

You're 100% right. Now go find yourself a job.

 

[The-J]

I mean, life isn't fair and doesn't promise equitable inputs or outputs.

That's kind of how life is. Luck determines whether or not I survive my morning walks with my dogs. I could get hit by a car, or slip on some ice and break my neck. My breakfast could poison me. I could get struck by lightning. I could get cancer and die a slow, agonizing death due to no fault of my own or anyone else's.

On the other hand, I could get hit by a car, survive, and get a big fat insurance payout or lawsuit settlement.

It goes both ways.

Don't worry about what "should" or "shouldn't" be. Deal with life as it IS. Aim to find out what's true. That's a core skill of being an entrepreneur.

If you're still not convinced, then execute on your idea for your nonprofit, maybe it'll do some good.

 

[Johnny boy]

Er’body got choices
-E40



I didn’t have opportunities other people have. I couldn’t care less. I got a job, saved the money, bought equipment, started my business, off to the races. I don’t have a college degree, I never even got my high school diploma sent to me.

And let me tell you, it feels GOOD knowing that I had nothing handed to me. I have a chip on my shoulder. I’ve got a little ice in my veins because of it. It’s my asset.

I’m glad I was born in America, where there’s still some sliver of freedom left where the free market can give people opportunity (opportunity doesn’t come from the government)

Call me lucky but you’ll be talking to deaf ears. The only other people that believe it comes down to luck are other lazy losers.

 

[fastlanedoll]

I don't see the world like you see it. I have mentored -- and I still mentor several people. You're right. Most of the time, it doesn't work. The whole process usually fails. BUT, when it works, it's worth all the effort and all the failures.

I have a woman who I helped over the last year. She was considered disability because they thought she was retarded. She's not. When I met her, I hooked her up with the local tutoring program. She was reading on the 3rd grade level. With the help of her tutor, now she is reading on a high school level. She's past her test and acquired a learner's permit for driving. She now working on her GED. She wants to become a nurse. For the first time in her life, she's standing up for herself. I found out that when she was about 11 years old, her mother sold her to a cousin. Her mother got $1,000 per month and the cousin bought this girl as a sex slave. No wonder she with drew into herself...

If there's life, there is hope.

That's horrible.

It's shit like this that makes you realize how lucky you are. Forget about making a billion dollars. Just be glad you weren't sold as a sex slave.

 

[Kak]

I am reminded of this again:

MINDSET - FEATURED! - Author spent 5 years interviewing 177 selfmade millionaires to find their secrets. Findings inside.

"Corley conducted a survey by interviewing 233 wealthy people who make $160,000 or more in annual income and hold at least $3.2 million in net liquid assets (177 of whom were self-made, coming from poverty or the middle class) and 128 poor people who make less than $35,000 per year and have less...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

For those embracing the luck argument... Why are you here? Why did you sign up on an entrepreneurial forum? Was that choice or luck? You signed up for an account by chance, or you made the good decision to become part of a learning community?

There is a belief in your own ability and decision making that is almost required in some form or fashion to have even ended up here.

Simultaneously declaring that success is luck while being here and striving to do better through increased knowledge, wisdom, cutting the learning curve is hypocrisy.

The argument about inheritance is laughable. Someone, in the lineage, created the value that made that money. It wasn't luck to them, it was making good decisions.

 

[xmartel]

You may not have said luck dictates success directly, but it's at least implied that it is the overriding cause of success by your title and your intro.
Which is not true.

I would suggest researching the topic of luck and luck events (2 different things) more in depth.
Jim Collins has a great book called "Great By Choice" that everyone should read.
But specific to this conversation, his last chapter in the book dives into the factor that luck plays, which I think you would find interesting to read.

The more successful companies didn't have any more good luck events than the less successful. And the less successful didn't have any more bad luck events than the more successful. The only thing that made a difference was how the companies chose to prepare for possible good/bad luck events, and how they chose to react when they happened.

Luck in a sense doesn't exist. Luck events do. We can't control luck events, they're just something that happens. But what we do control is how we react to those events. Such as having parents that give you a place to start your business.

How many people are in the same boat as you? It's extremely common for a kid to live with their parents and have access to free food. But how many make the choice of using that luck event to launch a business?

It's also interesting to note that one person's luck event, is caused by another person's choice. Your parents didn't have luck or even a luck event. They just chose to let you stay there. And then you chose to use that choice to better your circumstances.

Also, if you're driven to succeed, do you think you would have failed without the luck event of your parents providing a place? No, you would have just found a different route. There's many ways to skin a cat.

You're still putting way to little emphasis on the choices that people must make around luck events.

You often hear stories from founders of successful companies about their luck with just bumping into their future co-founder at a coffee shop or party. And I think they say it off hand. But let's look into those situations.

Bumping into that person was a luck event. But that didn't make them billionaires. The choice to get into business with each other, and the thousands of choices and thousands of hours of just plain old hard work over the ensuing years, and the choices when more good and bad luck events happened over the ensuing years. That's what led to that founder becoming successful.

I agree that it's important that successful people give back to society. But that obligation should not be because they got lucky.
When they make the choice to want to help people, it should be because they enjoy helping people. They want to see the betterment of society and share the wisdom they gleaned so that others may use it. Because they have a sense of community and we're all in this life together.

 

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[Jon L]

I've been thinking about this thread for a bit. I don't like the premise, and here's why:

The conclusion anyone on this thread reaches comes directly from the assumptions and worldview they started with. That doesn't make for a discussion that leads to increased knowledge.

If you think luck plays a big role in people's outcomes, then you'll find that it does. If you think luck plays a small role and people's actions play a big one, you'll find that that is true also. You'll arrange the facts and your narrative to fit your assumptions.

This topic is WAY too complex for anyone besides an omniscient being to make sense of. How do you correctly define the amount of impact any set of inputs have on life outcomes? You can't. No one on earth is smart enough.

So, what related topic would make for a useful discussion? How about this: "What worldview results in better life outcomes?" That is something that can be studied and discussed. The results of that new knowledge can help you pick the better path.

There's a bunch of social science research that shows that people with an increased sense of agency (ability to influence things in their life: "I make my own luck" kind of people) have far superior life outcomes compared to people who think everything is luck based.

So, which worldview do you want to adopt?

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I've been thinking about this thread for a bit. I don't like the premise, and here's why:

The conclusion anyone on this thread reaches comes directly from the assumptions and worldview they started with. That doesn't make for a discussion that leads to increased knowledge.

If you think luck plays a big role in people's outcomes, then you'll find that it does. If you think luck plays a small role and people's actions play a big one, you'll find that that is true also. You'll arrange the facts and your narrative to fit your assumptions.

This topic is WAY too complex for anyone besides an omniscient being to make sense of. How do you correctly define the amount of impact any set of inputs have on life outcomes? You can't. No one on earth is smart enough.

So, what related topic would make for a useful discussion? How about this: "What worldview results in better life outcomes?" That is something that can be studied and discussed. The results of that new knowledge can help you pick the better path.

There's a bunch of social science research that shows that people with an increased sense of agency (ability to influence things in their life: "I make my own luck" kind of people) have far superior life outcomes compared to people who think everything is luck based.

So, which worldview do you want to adopt?

I think the whole topic is a waste of time.

Luck or not, you control what you can and you don’t what you can’t.

Yes, even trying to “flip society upside down” or whatever is still taking matters into your own hands and performing “hard work.” That’s why the topic is bullshit and mostly a waste of time.

End of story.

 

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[WJK]

First off its a bad idea, it will be exploited very easily, a lot of background research will have to be done to make sure a "participant" is valid

You are going to get negative responses and people saying you are "downplaying" effort because this is a harsh reality most people don't want to accept

Human societies and the economies that lie therein are an example of "art" imitating nature, well more like "following the direction" than "imitating", imitation implies there's an alternative. Its more like water running through a river, it has no choice but to flow in the direction and through the path laid out that is shaped by reality (by its surroundings)

Think about it, everything in life is a roll of the dice, everything that will make you YOU was decided for you at conception and then further during development in the uterus and the womb

Household
Race
Sex
IQ
Potential
Physical Capabilities
Mental Capabilities
Defects
Allergies
Genetic Diseases
Etc

I remember there was this guy in class who I could never beat in an exam, I remember studying rigorously and telling my friends in the next exam I will beat him or atleast get the same score, well we both know what happened (I didn't beat him nor get a similar score), but why it happened is important.

I asked him how he studies and how often, he told me he barely studies at all, come to find out he just has photographic memory!. With no effort at all he could beat everyone, just coasting through life. He went on to do medical studies and is probably a doctor or something by now, all because of a random roll of the dice that resulted in his genetics.

It would not have mattered how hard I studied, my potential was decided long ago. Even if I spent a ridiculous amount of time studying and beat him once, so what, he could just now put in 25% of my effort and beat me, and either way it would make no difference in the gap of our potential and the path in life he was on. I'd be clinging to some random test I beat him on as a coping mechanism while he moves on to becoming a doctor lol.

The only way for a regular person to be successful in life, is to not stay on the same course as those who are born special, those who are born gifted or talented. They can afford to follow the rules and just follow a basic path in life and still achieve great success.

Those of us that are normal or even below average, have to find loopholes, exploits, even "cheats". There's no point "playing fair" in a world that was never fair to begin with, fairness is an illusion, order is an illusion.

Years ago I raised two boys. (Their mother abandoned them and I was living with man who had been their stepfather.) They were "throw away" kids -- born to a Cholo (Mexican bad guy) and a run away teenager on the streets of Los Angeles. Both were FASA (fetal alcohol syndrome) kids. Their mother drank & used drugs when she was pregnant with them. The older boy had serious brain damage. He loved computers and it the early days of that type of equipment. He couldn't write very easily -- but, he could type. And he loved to take things apart. In time, he learned to put them back together. I used to remind him all the time that everyone is given a special gift. We just had to find his. Today he is in his late 40s and he's able to live independently. He still loves electronics -- his special gift.

 

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[ShepardHumphries]

Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

I too have read that book, and also what Nassem Talib said about it. Good points in part. Many people who do all the Top 10 lists of 1) work hard, 2) be passionate, etc don't wind up like the billionaire being interviewed who credit working hard, being passionate etc. I get it.

It occurs to me that we are all born with certain pros and cons, and how we design and conduct our lives plays a big role. Over the last 10 years, everyone on this forum could have afforded 100 BTC, which today would allow you to retire. Some bought, some didn't. Luck? Kinda, but when I first bought BTC in 2014 at $300-ish, it was because I was at an anarcho-capitalist conference and speakers discussed it and some guy sold me a couple hundred dollars worth.

Was it luck that I choose to live in a wealthy geographical location? (mom and I moved here in 89 when I was 16, she worked as a maid at motel 6, and I worked as a dishwasher) Was it luck that a wealthy girlfriend years ago told me, "The closer you are to the money, the more stress you will have, and the more money that will rub off on you." Was it "luck" that I failed a bunch of businesses, and then finally made one work nicely so that I could afford to travel to a conference? Was it "luck" that I was at THAT conference as a result of study done after being in politics and getting disgusted with the government? Was it luck that I met a btc geek that had enough patience to teach me and help me? Was it "luck" that I bought less than one coin? Was it luck that I spent 90% of that coin at that conference? Was it "luck" that I lost the keys for the remaining little bit?

"Privilege" exists for all of us. Luck certainly plays a role. The stoics suggest that we accept that which we can not change, and focus on what we can change. I can live in a wealthy county, I can read hundreds of books, I can make hundreds of videos, I can bla bla bla... these things don't guarantee me success. They are however, within the pile of things that I can control, and somehow good things frequently "happen" to me.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fngbyY_M790&t=2s

 

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[Kak]

Do you believe that we can simply look at two different people's net worths (assuming they are relatively the same age), and say that the person with the larger net worth is necessarily better at making money than the person with the smaller net worth?

I'm not about to have another sociopathic "write off" circle jerk with you @JScott where you stomp around telling everyone ever why they are wrong. You would probably be arguing against luck and in favor of decisions and action if I had taken the side of luck. No one, who knows who you, ever takes your bait anymore. Why? They know you show up here to fight. You will argue and argue until everyone just gives up.

Just like I don't believe you were foreign to the most common use of the prase "write off," I honestly don't believe that you actually think business is mostly luck. So why are you here defending such a position?

There is a reason we clash. @JScott, I view the world very differently than you. I happen to view business and industry in a very favorable light. I believe business, entrepreneurs, and profit motive are a force for good. I believe this path is chosen and I have a strong appreciation for those that endeavor and make the necessary sacrifices to build...

On the other hand... You simply don't.

At the core of it, you are probably a socialist in an identity crisis. You have done well for yourself, but somehow detest business and economic freedom. You use this forum to unpack the mental gymnastics required to be both an entrepreneur and also harbor exceedingly anti-business views. I'm sure that is a frustrating endeavor for you.

I have seriously tried, more than you would believe, to find common ground with you, and appreciate you for who you are... but, at this point, I am very sure that effort has been a one way road. I have never seen you show respect or appreciation for anyone on this forum.

So no, I'm not going to take your bait. I don't argue with people that are "always right." @BizyDad and I are a good example of people who irritate the shit out of each other, but still find great common ground and respect one another. We hung out like old friends in Phoenix last year, because we are.

The thread link I posted is filled with statistical evidence that the belief system you are promoting, which is an external locus of control, is toxic.

The funny thing, the vast majority of us are here to learn, grow and swap experience. You evidently are here to assert yourself and thump your chest, perhaps because no one in real life gives you credit for your mental superiority. Have you opened your mind to learning anything from us plebes or are you just here to piss in the pool, and convince new and impressionable entrepreneurs that it is all luck?

 

[Kak]

Luck or Choice? Your Belief System MATTERS - Ep 141 by Kill Bigger Radio with Kyle Keegan

In my FIRST EVER show with the ElectroVoice RE20 Microphone... I discuss a thread on The Fastlane Forum that piqued my interest... A member made the claim that a lot of financial success is luck. He made, 7 points that he claims are luck... I go through all 7 and highlight the element of choice...

anchor.fm

@Oxx you inspired me to do a show on this very topic. I am super encouraged at your entertaining of many of the post that proceeded your claims.

Have you ever taken a locus of control test? Claims like the original post here are pretty textbook external and external locus is a LEARNED belief system that does NO ONE any favors.

If you find that you are external, grit your teeth and force yourself through a book like Jocko's Extreme Ownership... It will probably rock your world, for the better.

 

[WJK]

Like the title says, i think luck plays a far too strong role in achieving financial success. I argue that the people at the very top are almost always there because of conditions they couldn't influence:

1. being born in a first world country
2. having a healthy body
3. having a healthy mind
4. access to good infrastructure
5. accesss to good education
6. equality of opportunity
7. people who support you with money and experience

I know hard work is necessary, but take one of these factors out of the equation and it's very likely that you won't achieve financial success in your life.
I also believe, that the first 3 reasons are pure chance, 4 + 5 + 6 are the responsibility of governments and 7 is the responsibility of your parents.

Now, i have an idea for a nonprofit organisation which could solve number 7. This organisation uses an online platform, where people share their life situation and their goal in order to find someone who supports them with their experience and maybe their money. So people who are highly motivated and willing to work hard but don't have parents with a gold mine could find some sort of mentor who knows about their life situation and they can work together until the goals is achieved.

I don't know if money should be involved since it would attract a lot of scammers but maybe it is possible with a milestone system, just like Upwork, where you get some money after you achieved the milestone.

So what do you think? Good idea, bad idea? Did i miss something?

The harder I work, the luckier I get...

I have done -- and I do a lot helping people as part of my business. I provide low to moderate-income housing. It's a difficult thing to balance with a thriving business. Why don't you try being successful for a number of years first?

 

[WJK]

Success usually takes several tries. There is a cycle of failure and success and failure and success... You get the idea. It takes a lot of grit to get there. And I know of very few who have done it in 10 years without that "failure thing" bringing them back down to start again. They say it takes about 3 cycles to know enough and have enough skills to hang on to success...

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

There are two possibilites:

1. Luck plays a huge role in success.
2. Luck doesn't play a huge role in success.

Either way, you should do the same thing: put forth as much effort as necessary into being successful, if that is the outcome you desire.

So it doesn't matter Isn't that beautiful?

 

[Lyinx]

the more I work, the luckier I get

 

[Deleted78083]

Sure, every entrepreneur out there were born with their ideas, connections, and the VC papers were ready halfway through their gestation period. They didnt have to work hard at all, money and success was just handed to them.

And it is well-known that 1st world countries ALWAYS were 1st world countries, that no one ever took the time or risk to develop stable democracies with healthy capitalism in it. Europeans were just lucky, they didn't struggle for 600 years, went through countless wars and famine, to build what they have now.

And it is also very well-known that former 3rd world countries never developped, and never offer any type of business opportunities, like China, Chile, South-Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, UAE, Uruguay, where people remained poor and hungry, and where nothing of particular significance is happening.

Also omg some people just have health privilege, it is not the fact that they do sport and eat healhy, nope, that is just nothing, they are just lucky to be healthy.

If you don't have any of that then it is just society oppressing you and you have no chance to succeed. Don't even try. Just move to a country that took from the lucky to distribute to the unlucky. Life is great there, the paradise of workers, a beacon of peace and prosperity. Everyone is equal, and luck doesnt play any part because being rich is forbidden.

Try it! These countries are callee Cuba, North-Korea and Venezuela.

 

[Deleted78083]

"Sure, every entrepreneur out there were born with their ideas, connections, and the VC papers were ready halfway through their gestation period. They didnt have to work hard at all, money and success was just handed to them."

That's not what i believe at all!

The point i want to make is that the 7 reasons are increasing your chance of financial success by an insane amount, take only one of them away, and your chances sink drastically, that's why it's so important that successful people know what made it easier for them (for example healthy body = not having ALS) and then help to improve the situation, so that luck plays a lesser role in your chance of financial success. And that's how i came up with my idea.

By no means do i think that entrepreneurs get money and success handed by lucky circumstances, so you either misunderstood my post or you didn't understand it.

Absolutely not.

Poverty in Belgium touches 20% of the population, despite Belgium being one of best countries in the world in terms of living standards, democracy, equality, freedom, and everything else.

The lesson is that your environment, or who you know, or anything else, does not matter as long as you are not taking action.

I would argue in fact the opposite of your argument. I think that living in a 1st world country decreases your chances of achieving financial success because you have to face less adversity.

People that dont face any adversity remain weak. They can't do anything by themselves and live off government support. Usually, they are...the kids of rich parents.

This is probably why most millionaires and billionaires are self-made. It's the fact that they had to fight to do what they did that made them billionaires. Adversity made them tougher, it made them richer.

 

[xmartel]

The point i want to make is that the 7 reasons are increasing your chance of financial success by an insane amount, take only one of them away, and your chances sink drastically, that's why it's so important that successful people know what made it easier for them (for example healthy body = not having ALS) and then help to improve the situation

Those 7 points do increase your ability to achieve success. There's no doubt about that.

so that luck plays a lesser role in your chance of financial success.

But then you make this jump to saying it's luck, which has nothing to do with the first part of your paragraph.

Just because something is important, doesn't mean it's existence is luck.
You're still not understanding that people have choices around those 7 things. They can bring them into and out of their lives by their choices.

 

[WJK]

I've been thinking about this thread for a bit. I don't like the premise, and here's why:

The conclusion anyone on this thread reaches comes directly from the assumptions and worldview they started with. That doesn't make for a discussion that leads to increased knowledge.

If you think luck plays a big role in people's outcomes, then you'll find that it does. If you think luck plays a small role and people's actions play a big one, you'll find that that is true also. You'll arrange the facts and your narrative to fit your assumptions.

This topic is WAY too complex for anyone besides an omniscient being to make sense of. How do you correctly define the amount of impact any set of inputs have on life outcomes? You can't. No one on earth is smart enough.

So, what related topic would make for a useful discussion? How about this: "What worldview results in better life outcomes?" That is something that can be studied and discussed. The results of that new knowledge can help you pick the better path.

There's a bunch of social science research that shows that people with an increased sense of agency (ability to influence things in their life: "I make my own luck" kind of people) have far superior life outcomes compared to people who think everything is luck based.

So, which worldview do you want to adopt?

I am not sure that it is one or the other. Making something happen is like pushing a car that is at a standstill. It's hard to get it rolling. Once you do, it's a lot easier to push. I've found that once I get started on a business or a project that I become attractive to Lady Luck -- I become uber lucky. I not saying that everything goes right for me. But, I am saying that the bumps in the road aren't as hard to roll over. (I have a plan for almost all of them since they are expected. They are part of playing the game.) And, as I go further, I develop more magnetism for good luck and fortunate events. I really, really, really count & glorify those golden moments of good fortune. Maybe it's just that I pay attention to the wins and I deeply discount the problems...

 

[sparechange]

I wonder with the current political climate if it's even going to be possible to operate a small business in the near future.. currently it's illegal to even have a small biz open in certain parts of Canada

See ya at the bread and soup lineup, they even have left over cake from last week!

 

[MakeItHappen]

Of course, there is a lot of luck involved. If you are born into a 3rd world country, you are sick and can't attend school your chances are slim. If you have an IQ of 50 you likely can work as hard as you want but you will only enjoy limited success.

But given that you are born into the first world, you are quite smart, healthy and you have huge ambition as well as drive what is the upper ceiling in terms of net worth before you have to get lucky?

@JScott thanks for your insightful answers. I think a lot of your potential net worth also comes down to the industry you choose. If you have a business model that isn't too risky and allows you to grow 30% per year for a long time you will get very far.
As an example, I think of Grand Cardone. He isn't in a risky business like a silicon valley startup. He likely has great cash flow and good profit margins. He reinvests pretty much everything into real estate and since he continues to increase his audience he will likely continue to grow year after year. I think it's not unlikely to expect him to become a billionaire in his lifetime.
Of course, you could argue that he got lucky for using social media right from the beginning or something like that but so have many other people. If I look at someone like Grant Cardone I see someone that chooses a business model that isn't risky but has the potential to grow for years to come at a great rate.

Or let's say an entrepreneur is specialized in running nursing homes and keep acquiring more and more nursing homes. If he has the skill to own a lot of nursing homes, say 100+ and works on this as a goal for 20 years shouldn't he be able to get to the $50 million dollar range without having to get lucky... just grinding it out like Grant Cardone day after day.

I once heard of a gentleman that owned over 80 fast-food franchises. If the gentleman has the skill to run many businesses isn't the factor of luck rather small?

Of course, you have to be very skilled and take a certain type of risk if you buy businesses but given the skill needed to succeed is luck really that big of a factor if you choose the right business modell / strategy?

I am just curious and would like to get your opinion on it.

 

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[Kal-El1998]

I like to paraphrase Jim Rohn with this. Sometimes income can take a lucky jump, but if you want to keep it, you have to learn how to meet it. I probably butchered it but something like that.

 

[WJK]

Of course, there is a lot of luck involved. If you are born into a 3rd world country, you are sick and can't attend school your chances are slim. If you have an IQ of 50 you likely can work as hard as you want but you will only enjoy limited success.

But given that you are born into the first world, you are quite smart, healthy and you have huge ambition as well as drive what is the upper ceiling in terms of net worth before you have to get lucky?

@JScott thanks for your insightful answers. I think a lot of your potential net worth also comes down to the industry you choose. If you have a business model that isn't too risky and allows you to grow 30% per year for a long time you will get very far.
As an example, I think of Grand Cardone. He isn't in a risky business like a silicon valley startup. He likely has great cash flow and good profit margins. He reinvests pretty much everything into real estate and since he continues to increase his audience he will likely continue to grow year after year. I think it's not unlikely to expect him to become a billionaire in his lifetime.
Of course, you could argue that he got lucky for using social media right from the beginning or something like that but so have many other people. If I look at someone like Grant Cardone I see someone that chooses a business model that isn't risky but has the potential to grow for years to come at a great rate.

Or let's say an entrepreneur is specialized in running nursing homes and keep acquiring more and more nursing homes. If he has the skill to own a lot of nursing homes, say 100+ and works on this as a goal for 20 years shouldn't he be able to get to the $50 million dollar range without having to get lucky... just grinding it out like Grant Cardone day after day.

I once heard of a gentleman that owned over 80 fast-food franchises. If the gentleman has the skill to run many businesses isn't the factor of luck rather small?

Of course, you have to be very skilled and take a certain type of risk if you buy businesses but given the skill needed to succeed is luck really that big of a factor if you choose the right business modell / strategy?

I am just curious and would like to get your opinion on it.

It's a little bit of both. Part of it is the timing of when you start. Part of it is your skills. And most of it is your "dogged determination" to continue no matter what. People who are really successful don't know that they can quit. They'll say, "Just a minute. I've got to try this one more time... and do it this way... that I just thought of..." and then they do it. Life has a built in appreciation for that kind of determination. It's also called the Law of Attraction. Whatever you obsessively think about seems to move toward you almost magically. The right people and situations show up. You must be prepared & ready to accept Life's gift.
(Or this law can work against you if you worry and fret about bad things happening.)
It also has to do with your right and your ability to rewrite your story. How you got here to this moment and place, belongs to you, and you alone. You can give yourself a central hero role in your story, or you can see yourself as a pawn in the Game of Life. Heroes make strong causes. They take action. They save the lady in distress -- find that she is a princess -- marry her -- to become the king-in-waiting. Heroes slay the dragons -- save the kingdom -- and get crowned.
(They aren't just young profiteers out trying to steal the king's daughter to hold her for ransom. They aren't the down-trodden serf tilling in the king's field.)
Rewrite your story to highlight your strengths and your accomplishments. You've done what with your life?

 

[axelle99]

Le succès prend généralement plusieurs essais. Il y a un cycle d'échecs et de succès et d'échecs et de succès ... Vous voyez l'idée. Il faut beaucoup de courage pour y arriver. Et je connais très peu de gens qui l'ont fait en 10 ans sans que ce "truc de l'échec" ne les ramène à recommencer. Ils disent qu'il faut environ 3 cycles pour en savoir suffisamment et avoir suffisamment de compétences pour s'accrocher au succès ...

pour moi ce que les gens appellent échec ne l'est pas. C'est comme ce qu'a dit Thomas Edison : "je n'ai pas échouer 1000 fois j'ai juste essayé plusieurs façons de le faire"
et cela résume très bien ma pensée

 

[Antifragile]

I'm not about to have another sociopathic "write off" circle jerk with you @JScott where you stomp around telling everyone ever why they are wrong. You would probably be arguing against luck and in favor of decisions and action if I had taken the side of luck. No one, who knows who you, ever takes your bait anymore. Why? They know you show up here to fight. You will argue and argue until everyone just gives up.

Just like I don't believe you were foreign to the most common use of the prase "write off," I honestly don't believe that you actually think business is mostly luck. So why are you here defending such a position?

There is a reason we clash. @JScott, I view the world very differently than you. I happen to view business and industry in a very favorable light. I believe business, entrepreneurs, and profit motive are a force for good. I believe this path is chosen and I have a strong appreciation for those that endeavor and make the necessary sacrifices to build...

On the other hand... You simply don't.

At the core of it, you are probably a socialist in an identity crisis. You have done well for yourself, but somehow detest business and economic freedom. You use this forum to unpack the mental gymnastics required to be both an entrepreneur and also harbor exceedingly anti-business views. I'm sure that is a frustrating endeavor for you.

I have seriously tried, more than you would believe, to find common ground with you, and appreciate you for who you are... but, at this point, I am very sure that effort has been a one way road. I have never seen you show respect or appreciation for anyone on this forum.

So no, I'm not going to take your bait. I don't argue with people that are "always right." @BizyDad and I are a good example of people who irritate the shit out of each other, but still find great common ground and respect one another. We hung out like old friends in Phoenix last year, because we are.

The thread link I posted is filled with statistical evidence that the belief system you are promoting, which is an external locus of control, is toxic.

The funny thing, the vast majority of us are here to learn, grow and swap experience. You evidently are here to assert yourself and thump your chest, perhaps because no one in real life gives you credit for your mental superiority. Have you opened your mind to learning anything from us plebes or are you just here to piss in the pool, and convince new and impressionable entrepreneurs that it is all luck?

Whatever happened to JScott? Any chance he’s now Black_Dragon43? BD is argumentative as F*ck too, typically without an actual point.

“Actually…” guys. Gee… sky isn’t blue, it actually a shade of ___.

Solid post @Kak. Well done.

For for people who are in the business communities, drawing such comparison can be detrimental to mental health. Your business could be no where after 2-3 years despite best of your efforts. Then are you lazy or stupid?

Different games have different rules. Coming with the wrong expectations can lead to depression.

I think this unpredictability is what makes business far more challenging than other endeavors.

The stakes and emotions of business owners are higher “roller coaster” rides. But I sincerely believe it to be LOWER risk than just a job. Why? Because even a mediocre business will teach you skills you can’t get any other way.

To swim you mist jump in the pool at some point, reading 100 books won’t do it. Same with business. Once you get those skills, you’ll typically succeed more often. And your downside is - you will always be able to get a great job with same skills. Meaning, every business owner can get a job, but not everyone with a job can become a business owner. So the risk is lower. And luck factor improves. “The better I am the luckier I seem to get. “

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Whatever happened to JScott?

I kindly asked him to leave the forum (the post above is a decent explanation albeit Kak used more terse language than I used) to which he instructed he wanted all his posts deleted. I happily obliged. Quite possibly one of the best decisions I've made in terms of forum management.