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NOTABLE! Lending Club Investing: Good Passive Income Source? (Answer: NO)

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MJ DeMarco

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If anyone has any Lending Club experiences please share with us your experiences.

I've just created an account and am looking to report my experience to determine if this is a viable passive income source.

My experiences will be reported in this thread. Please read on...
 

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Bump.

If anyone has any Lending Club experiences please share with us your experiences.

I've just created an account and am looking to report my experience to determine if this is a viable passive income source.
Mj, not specific to Lending Club, I'm working on a Peer 2 Peer lending project with a couple of friends. From our research however, we're seeing this to be a very profitable business. I can send you an interesting article privately on p2p lending, and they touch upon LC and Prosper - if you're interested.
 

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Bump.

If anyone has any Lending Club experiences please share with us your experiences.

I've just created an account and am looking to report my experience to determine if this is a viable passive income source.
I have been investing with Lending Club for about 6 months. I have about 250 notes and, according to the site, my return will be about 9%. I believe that it could have been more, but many of the notes that I initially invested in defaulted. I've created multiple portfolios and I'm currently tracking the progress of various subsets of notes in order to create and perfect a system to maximize returns (more on this later).

Overall, I am making more gains from this than any other current investment. Of course, this is not yet set in stone and I do not have enough data or experience for a final conclusion.

I will continue to post updates in this thread though.
 
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What criteria did you use? Anything notable?
I developed absolute criteria based on internet research (taken with a grain of salt, of course) and sensibility (in my opinion). I only invest in loans where the recipient:

- Has not had any recent delinquencies
- Has not had more than 3 credit inquiries
- Has a job (though this information is unverified)
- Is refinancing a loan (which, in my opinion, is more likely to be successful than say, starting a small business)

I've been experimenting with loan term and interest rate.

Here are my statistics so far:

I've invested approximately $7k so far over a 6 month time span.

Loan Term
- 60 month loan term: ~60% current (meaning that the other 40% has either defaulted or is late and will likely default)
- 36 month loan term: ~95% current

Interest Rate (only measures 36 month loan term)
- A-D: 100% current
- E-G: ~90% current

As I said though, I've only been doing this for 6 months. Many of the notes are more recent than that (since I only invest in a note when I see one that I like). So it's possible (and likely) that these numbers will worsen over time.
 
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Glad this got brought back up. Last time I looked into it I was unable to invest due to the state that I live in. It seems that it changed in July this year so I will be looking into this.
Same here. I was happily surprised to find it recently changed, giving me an alternative passive income source. At 7% for the lowest risk loans, it certainly beats 0.8% at a bank.

I'm willing to experiment and have some fun with it.

My only concern is LC themselves... its a $4B company but in my mind, still a "startup" -- even with success on this platform, I don't think I'd feel comfortable with $500K into their system. Not until I see some further maturation.

Here's an article and how it possibly can fit into an income scenario for a money system.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-income-investors-should-consider-peer-to-peer-lending-2015-12-29

 
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Since the other thread was YEARS old and a lot has changed, I've broken out the conversation into a new thread.
 

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I always wanted to do this, but really struggle with the due diligence portion.

A persons' credit rating doesn't really correlate well with being a good investment. I know plenty of people with good credit that are shitty at business and have terrible ideas.

Maybe there is an opportunity in here somewhere for a service that looks that these businesses and provides a metric that is more useful than the individual credit score?
 
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A persons' credit rating doesn't really correlate well with being a good investment.
Definitely agree... right now it seems the only risk mitigation seems to be diversification. The more notes you own, the less impact the defaults have on your principal.
 
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My only concern is LC themselves... its a $4B company but in my mind, still a "startup" -- even with success on this platform, I don't think I'd feel comfortable with $500K into their system. Not until I see some further maturation.
Glad you bring this up, I feel the same.

LC and Prosper are the biggest, but in Europe we have plenty of small startups that I wouldn't dare touch.

In any case, I wouldn't lend to people to start a business. Regular people who are fixing up their house might be a safer bet.
 

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Glad this got brought back up. Last time I looked into it I was unable to invest due to the state that I live in. It seems that it changed in July this year so I will be looking into this.
I am also pumped this has been brought back up. What better way to get back at the big banks than to get to BE the BANK yourself? What better way to displace these frauds then to decentralize and move to a new paradigm BEYOND them?

A direct outgrowth of artificially deficient fed funds rate no doubt!
 

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LC and Prosper are the biggest, but in Europe we have plenty of small startups that I wouldn't dare touch.
Are you referring to sites like Twino.eu and Mintos.com or something else?

I started investing on Twino a few weeks ago and so far I love everything about it. Where else can you get 12.9% a year with no work whatsoever except for a few clicks? Getting over a 1% a month with 1-month loans with buyback guarantee (they even pay interest for the delay in case of a default) is great.

If you like speculation, then you can possibly also earn more by buying and selling euro at the right time.

While I understand there's a risk they can go bankrupt, you can protect yourself against it by either withdrawing a percentage of your gains every few months (and investing in something safer) or spreading your capital over a few sites (like Twino, Mintos, Estateguru plus some other sites for different geographic areas).

If I remember right, @GlobalWealth talked with the owner of Mintos and was about to invest there (am I right, Bobby?).

I also love the idea of bullion-secured P2P loans at SilverBullion. The yields aren't as high as in the case of Mintos or Twino (up to 6% per annum), but it could be yet another way to spread the risk (and here it's really low when you consider that loans are secured at a 2 to 1 ratio by the borrower’s gold, silver or platinum parcels). And it's yet another (stable) jurisdiction which is also important for diversification.

P2P lending is a young idea, but I feel much safer investing in it than in the (manipulated) stock market I don't understand.
 

Mineralogic

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Are you referring to sites like Twino.eu and Mintos.com or something else?

I started investing on Twino a few weeks ago and so far I love everything about it. Where else can you get 12.9% a year with no work whatsoever except for a few clicks? Getting over a 1% a month with 1-month loans with buyback guarantee (they even pay interest for the delay in case of a default) is great.

If you like speculation, then you can possibly also earn more by buying and selling euro at the right time.

While I understand there's a risk they can go bankrupt, you can protect yourself against it by either withdrawing a percentage of your gains every few months (and investing in something safer) or spreading your capital over a few sites (like Twino, Mintos, Estateguru plus some other sites for different geographic areas).

If I remember right, @GlobalWealth talked with the owner of Mintos and was about to invest there (am I right, Bobby?).

I also love the idea of bullion-secured P2P loans at SilverBullion. The yields aren't as high as in the case of Mintos or Twino (up to 6% per annum), but it could be yet another way to spread the risk (and here it's really low when you consider that loans are secured at a 2 to 1 ratio by the borrower’s gold, silver or platinum parcels). And it's yet another (stable) jurisdiction which is also important for diversification.

P2P lending is a young idea, but I feel much safer investing in it than in the (manipulated) stock market I don't understand.
exactly, everyone should continue to move their money away from funding a rigged game of thrones.

again, p2p lending is more in alignment with fastlane associated maxims anyway

stock market? Basically they elite found a way to create a socialized market to maximize capital gains for themselves so they could sell as needed and maintain their enourmous wealth from the robber baron days. So behind the modern democratization of the stock market underlies that it really is....we are seeing it now for what it is
 
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exactly, everyone should continue to move their money away from funding a rigged game of thrones.
Unfortunately a megalithic financial institution is sometimes more safer than a startup who really isn't being held to any fiduciary standard. (Not that banks are either, but a BofA failure would send shockwaves in the financial system, a LC failure would not.)

The Lending Club model is awesome and I'm incredibly excited about. However I will NOT be depositing a substantial amount with them and will identify the funds as entirely risk capital.

These kinds of nouveau investment firms is how people lose millions. One moment you're lavishing at how your $500,000 account has accrued $150,000 in interest, and the next day you're reading an article at the Wall Street Journal detailing how the firm has gone bankrupt and has misappropriated billions of dollars to "fund operations" and "stay afloat" -- suddenly your $650,000 which was merely a digital imprint on a screen, is frozen, or worse, gone.

It's one thing to look at your computer screen and say, OMG, I earned 15% on my cash this year! It's another to actually get the money into your account. I noticed there is no option to receive your interest automatically deposited into your account. That concerns me. As of now, all systems are a go and they looking to be executing on point. I for one, however, will remain cautiously optimistic.

My first loans have funded and my first interest payments come at the end of January. I will continually report.
 
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I realize most may not be interested in lending money to small businesses but I find Street Shares has an interesting model and may be an interesting investment opportunity for some or on the flip side a place where you could go and get money (very high rate).

Here are a few articles:
http://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/reviews/streetshares-small-business-loans-review523755997/
http://opportunitylives.com/shark-tank-meets-ebay-streetshares-invests-in-vets/

In short the lender gets to see a bit about each business and choose which businesses to place money into, they call it shark tank meets ebay, the investor chooses the amount of money to place towards the businesses loan and the rate they would need in return. For instance if I was asking for $20,000 ten people could offer me $2,000 at rates between 15% and 25% my overall rate would be 20% with some investors making 25%. If I wanted 20k and got offers for 50k I would only collect on the offers at the lowest percent.
 

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So I'm not exactly sure which borrower criteria you are allowed to take a look at, but I used to work in deep subprime auto finance. We gave loans to the riskiest populations that exist, and still made money. I worked in the risk department, so I saw the metrics that went into our custom risk models.

Here are some observations (keep in mind this was for the riskiest population of people that exists, and P2P lending probably has diffferent metrics):
  • FICO is good, and does have a some correlation to risk, but don't rely on it 100%.
  • You want to see if they have a mortgage and any other vehicles they are paying on. Ideally, you want their Payment To Income ratio to be below 15%. So if they make $1,000 per month, you want their payment to be below $150. The Debt To Income ratio is also useful; add their rent/mortage + any car payments + the loan payment. You'd like this to stay below 60% or so. So if they make $2,000 per month, their rent is $750, car is $250, and loan is $100, that is 60% and is pretty decent.
  • No repos in the last year.
  • No bankruptcies in the last year or two.
  • If you can pull their Lexis-Nexis report, you will have a lot more good info. This data contains variables that show how often they've moved addresses in the last year or two, if their are any potential identity fraud issues, etc. This can be helpful if you have access to the data. You want someone who shows some stability.
  • If you can get their employment history, that is good. You want someone employed more than 3-6 months at their most recent job. If you can verify their employment at their job, that is even better.
  • Not sure if you get their location, but if so you can pull the demographic info from their zip code. Lets just say that it isn't compliant for large lending orgs to do this because of racial bias, but you can draw some conclusions and decrease your risk in this way.
I could go on, but you want to look for someone that shows stability and the means to pay.

--Also, wanted to throw this in here. You do occasionally get people who overstate their income, but it doesn't necessarily impact their riskiness. Just as often, maybe surprisingly, you get people who understate their income.
 

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Unfortunately a megalithic financial institution is sometimes more safer than a startup who really isn't being held to any fiduciary standard. (Not that banks are either, but a BofA failure would send shockwaves in the financial system, a LC failure would not.)

The Lending Club model is awesome and I'm incredibly excited about. However I will NOT be depositing a substantial amount with them and will identify the funds as entirely risk capital.

These kinds of nouveau investment firms is how people lose millions. One moment you're lavishing at how your $500,000 account has accrued $150,000 in interest, and the next day you're reading an article at the Wall Street Journal detailing how the firm has gone bankrupt and has misappropriated billions of dollars to "fund operations" and "stay afloat" -- suddenly your $650,000 which was merely a digital imprint on a screen, is frozen, or worse, gone.

It's one thing to look at your computer screen and say, OMG, I earned 15% on my cash this year! It's another to actually get the money into your account. I noticed there is no option to receive your interest automatically deposited into your account. That concerns me. As of now, all systems are a go and they looking to be executing on point. I for one, however, will remain cautiously optimistic.

My first loans have funded and my first interest payments come at the end of January. I will continually report.
good point! May I ask, did you finding something better with lending club vs Prosper.com? Will definitely read your updates on this as I'm looking at it myself
 

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These kinds of nouveau investment firms is how people lose millions
When does an investment firm cease to become nouveau if you take into the account the fact that Lending Club was founded in 2006? Technically you can no longer call it a startup with over 1000 employees and a successful IPO, though I think I understand your point. Still, I'm curious what are the criteria to stop calling an investment firm "nouveau."

Unfortunately a megalithic financial institution is sometimes more safer than a startup who really isn't being held to any fiduciary standard. (Not that banks are either, but a BofA failure would send shockwaves in the financial system, a LC failure would not.)
Given the fact that FDIC's deposit insurance fund is currently at 1.01 percent (meaning it has an incredible $1.01 for every $100 of insured deposits) you probably wouldn't get your money back anyway in both cases. Most people tend to keep most of their money (if not all) in just one bank, so they're probably even more exposed this way than if they had some money in their bank and some money with Lending Club.

@MichaelGrey, that's scary, though these sites don't strike me as very reputable. Quakle paying lenders £30 for registration sounds unsustainable, while TrustBuddy only had a year of history.

The company behind Twino was founded in 2009 so it appears to be safer. Mintos doesn't strike me as as reputable as Twino (though their secured car loans are probably safe), while EstateGuru appears to be safer due to the fact they invest in real estate.

I can be wrong in all three cases, though. It's the name of the game, and the risk you have to take into account when experimenting with such things.

That's why I'll be spreading my investments over a few sites, reinvesting part of the profits into other things and keeping P2P only a part of my portfolio with safer investments protecting me in case anything happens to any P2P site.
 

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I invested a bit of cash in Mintos and Twino. Both are currently yielding around 11% based on my requirements. I have cautiously optimistic and like @MJ DeMarco I am keeping the amounts at a low level until I can gain more confidence.

I have met personally with the founder and ceo of Mintos. He came across as a very smart and ethical businessman. Of course that is no guarantee of abject failure and fraud, but I personally felt comfortable with him.

As @MTF said, Twino has been around for several years. And Mintos is actually just the tech platform where the loan originators sell their loans. For car loans, Mintos uses primarily Mogo, which has been around in Latvia for a long time with great history.
 

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I am keeping the amounts at a low level until I can gain more confidence.
What's your level of trust? Something along the lines of a few thousand euros, low five figures, mid five figures or more? Currently about 10% of my portfolio is in P2P lending and I wonder what's the safe limit from the point of view of a more experienced investor.
 

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What's your level of trust? Something along the lines of a few thousand euros, low five figures, mid five figures or more? Currently about 10% of my portfolio is in P2P lending and I wonder what's the safe limit from the point of view of a more experienced investor.
It is quite small now, but I will likely add more very soon. But I doubt I'd go more than 20% even if very comfortable.



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I should be getting my first interest "payment" in a week.
 

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I should be getting my first interest "payment" in a week.
With twino and mintos I get payments almost daily.

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So I'm not exactly sure which borrower criteria you are allowed to take a look at, but I used to work in deep subprime auto finance. We gave loans to the riskiest populations that exist, and still made money. I worked in the risk department, so I saw the metrics that went into our custom risk models.

Here are some observations (keep in mind this was for the riskiest population of people that exists, and P2P lending probably has diffferent metrics):
  • FICO is good, and does have a some correlation to risk, but don't rely on it 100%.
  • You want to see if they have a mortgage and any other vehicles they are paying on. Ideally, you want their Payment To Income ratio to be below 15%. So if they make $1,000 per month, you want their payment to be below $150. The Debt To Income ratio is also useful; add their rent/mortage + any car payments + the loan payment. You'd like this to stay below 60% or so. So if they make $2,000 per month, their rent is $750, car is $250, and loan is $100, that is 60% and is pretty decent.
  • No repos in the last year.
  • No bankruptcies in the last year or two.
  • If you can pull their Lexis-Nexis report, you will have a lot more good info. This data contains variables that show how often they've moved addresses in the last year or two, if their are any potential identity fraud issues, etc. This can be helpful if you have access to the data. You want someone who shows some stability.
  • If you can get their employment history, that is good. You want someone employed more than 3-6 months at their most recent job. If you can verify their employment at their job, that is even better.
  • Not sure if you get their location, but if so you can pull the demographic info from their zip code. Lets just say that it isn't compliant for large lending orgs to do this because of racial bias, but you can draw some conclusions and decrease your risk in this way.
I could go on, but you want to look for someone that shows stability and the means to pay.

--Also, wanted to throw this in here. You do occasionally get people who overstate their income, but it doesn't necessarily impact their riskiness. Just as often, maybe surprisingly, you get people who understate their income.
Of course, but that industry makes money because you can charge predatory lending rates to people who can't otherwise get loans AND you still have the car as collateral.

It's all upside if you don't mind dealing in that business and doing repos if it comes to that.

There is no collateral in P2P if these businesses close up shop.
 
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There is no collateral in P2P if these businesses close up shop.
Yup, and the way the stock market is behaving, we might be looking at Bubble 3.0. At the end of the day, P2P lending is still in it's maturation stage (for all intents still in the "startup" lexicon) and it wouldn't shock me if any of these companies collapsed in a Bubble 3.0 scenario. This is why all my cash there is speculative and a very tiny amount that I can afford to lose.

What people don't realize is that your money is just a digitized number on a computer screen. If the 3rd party holding that number says your money's gone because they went insolvent, well, it's gone.
 

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What people don't realize is that your money is just a digitized number on a computer screen.
Would you consider real assets (precious metals, real estate, etc.) more Fastlane control-wise? In general, how important do you think it is to shield yourself from these "digitized" forms of money? Do you worry much about it?
 
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Received my first interest payment today!! Woo hoo 14 cents! Which BTW, is 14 cents more than I received from my checking account interest at my bank which has 10X the money.

Would you consider real assets (precious metals, real estate, etc.) more Fastlane control-wise? In general, how important do you think it is to shield yourself from these "digitized" forms of money? Do you worry much about it?
Its a concern but I don't lose sleep over it. I think the best defense against digitized money is to own your own home, that way the only payment is taxes and utilities. Still a government lease (taxes) but 200/mo sure beats $11k/mo.
 

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