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RANT Is there a safe way to make money through football - soccer betting?

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kkompoti

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this forum is full of really clever people.i am asking this question here in order to understand if there is a way around it? small amounts of money to win - low risk.

i do not bet at all since february 2014. i will not start it again because now i really see money as soldiers. no penny must be lost!

but i see people in my job that are always saying that they win with a system all the time. i asked.they don't say. is there anyone in here who has done it?



p.s.
i believe there must be a mix of over-under and martingale system.

p.s.2
i lost 50 euro yesterday.i honestly almost cried! thank god i found it stuck between the seats of the car half an hour later!
 

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IGP

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this forum is full of really clever people.i am asking this question here in order to understand if there is a way around it? small amounts of money to win - low risk.

i do not bet at all since february 2014. i will not start it again because now i really see money as soldiers. no penny must be lost!

but i see people in my job that are always saying that they win with a system all the time. i asked.they don't say. is there anyone in here who has done it?



p.s.
i believe there must be a mix of over-under and martingale system.

p.s.2
i lost 50 euro yesterday.i honestly almost cried! thank god i found it stuck between the seats of the car half an hour later!
Yes, be the bookie!
 

devine

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Surprising thread, didn't expect to see it here.
I was successfuly betting a couple of years ago, primarily on tennis - it's the most fun and the least unpredictable from all sports.
Soccer is bad for betting, because of huge amount of pre-defined games and the dynamics. Never bet on soccer.
 

Veloce Grey

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but i see people in my job that are always saying that they win with a system all the time. i asked.they don't say. is there anyone in here who has done it?
That's because when it comes to talking about betting most people are blatant liars, delusional or conveniently forgetful. The ones trying to sell you programs/tips are usually liars, the ones wanting your praise for their ego tend just tend to mix all three things listed above. And very few of the honest ones actually tally up their bets to get an accurate picture of how they're doing, either because they can't be bothered or deep down they know it won't be a pretty picture.

Betting on football is especially hard unless you have some knowledge in a very small area. You're highly unlikely to be more informed about the chances of teams in major leagues than a bunch of professionals who spend all day assessing things, get insight from other "smarties" and have computer programs specifically designed to assess many factors.

Even if you somehow managed to find a smaller area you can make money in you'll then run into the problem that most of the bookies offering odds will simply tell you to go away by closing your account or reducing your bet size. When you're a loser they'll take $1000, $10,000 or $100,000 if they can manage the risk and know they'll win long term. But if you show you can beat them at that particular niche your account gets marked and you won't be able to bet what you want. You might get $5 on so they can take a cue from your opinion.

You can of course go to Betfair and trade against other people but you're unlikely to find significant edges there unless you're somehow sourcing amazing private info. It's shark vs shark in the bigger markets on there, and no offense you don't sound like a shark.

In short the opportunity cost probably isn't worth your time. Some people can do it but a very small percentage of those who try.

signed-someone who has been banned by many bookies, knows quite a few people who work risk management at bookies and has been betting since they were 5.
 
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Veloce Grey

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Yes, be the bookie!
It generally plays out like MJs affiliate example in TMF, where he was building the value of the business while making money and even his best affiliates were making far less with no asset value and no control. MJ = bookie, Affiliate = Winning Bettor.
 
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kkompoti

kkompoti

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It's shark vs shark in the bigger markets on there, and no offense you don't sound like a shark
i am something like nemo (lost!) from finding nemo when it comes to betting!

Forgot to mention something important! the reason i stopped betting.

My best man and up stairs neighbor went crazy all over it! he went with his company truck and 5000 euro to get merchandise 500km away, and he returned with 3000 euro worth of merchandise. this was done a couple dozen times when his business partner found out . the partner left the company and my best man now is working from 8 in the morning to 9 in the evening everyday. he became a total stranger with everyone! and he still bets around 200-300 euro a day with a pc he has on his job without his wife knowing about it!
 

devine

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That's because when it comes to talking about betting most people are blatant liars, delusional or conveniently forgetful. The ones trying to sell you programs/tips are usually liars, the ones wanting your praise for their ego tend just tend to mix all three things listed above. And very few of the honest ones actually tally up their bets to get an accurate picture of how they're doing, either because they can't be bothered or deep down they know it won't be a pretty picture.

Betting on football is especially hard unless you have some knowledge in a very small area. You're highly unlikely to be more informed about the chances of teams in major leagues than a bunch of professionals who spend all day assessing things, get insight from other "smarties" and have computer programs specifically designed to assess many factors.

Even if you somehow managed to find a smaller area you can make money in you'll then run into the problem that most of the bookies offering odds will simply tell you to go away by closing your account or reducing your bet size. When you're a loser they'll take $1000, $10,000 or $100,000 if they can manage the risk and know they'll win long term. But if you show you can beat them at that particular niche your account gets marked and you won't be able to bet what you want. You might get $5 on so they can take a cue from your opinion.

You can of course go to Betfair and trade against other people but you're unlikely to find significant edges there unless you're somehow sourcing amazing private info. It's shark vs shark in the bigger markets on there, and no offense you don't sound like a shark.

In short the opportunity cost probably isn't worth your time. Some people can do it but a very small percentage of those who try.

signed-someone who has been banned by many bookies, knows quite a few people who work risk management at bookies and has been betting since they were 5.
This is not how betting works. Especially not if you are in to make money.

Regarding "systems". @kkompoti - there is a thing called betting strategy, it's not a system that gaurantees that you'll win all the time, but it gaurantees that you'll multiply your deposit over time.
If you flat betting, you'll slowly and safely increase your deposit over time.
With Martingale you'll increase your deposit approximately 2x, compared to flat, but you need deeper pockets.

Betting is simple, it's not some kind of dangerous thing as people see it, it's probably the safest way to make money actually. Just take it as a job, be cold about betting and you're good to go.
 

Veloce Grey

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This is not how betting works. Especially not if you are in to make money.

Regarding "systems". @kkompoti - there is a thing called betting strategy, it's not a system that gaurantees that you'll win all the time, but it gaurantees that you'll multiply your deposit over time.
If you flat betting, you'll slowly and safely increase your deposit over time.
With Martingale you'll increase your deposit approximately 2x, compared to flat, but you need deeper pockets.

Betting is simple, it's not some kind of dangerous thing as people see it, it's probably the safest way to make money actually. Just take it as a job, be cold about betting and you're good to go.
Right.

While I congratulate you on finding a successful area in tennis and making some money from it (without knowing the exact details/amounts/longevity/who you were betting with), please don't recklessly encourage people with comments that sound like they were taken from a bookmaker's advertisement.

Also, telling people to be cold is a bit like telling them to be determined. It's true but it would be slightly more wonderful if they could buy a bottle of coldness or determination as needed.
 

MoneyDoc

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Hey man... I've logged into my account after roughly 6 months just to make this post (you should feel special ;)).

July 18th 2012 - My birthday. Turned 18! Sucker for easy money. Saw a bet365 ad - signed up, placed a $20 bet, won - got hooked.

July 18th 2016 - My birthday. Turned 22. Placed $1500-3000 bets (sports betting - primarily MLB). Outcome? Lost, lost, won, won, lost, lost, won, won, won, won, won, lost, lost, lost, lost, lost, lost.

Last week my $4k limit credit card was maxed (lost it all in bets). Had $0 left, couldn't bet. Withdrawal kicked in - worst week in my 22 years of life. Full of headaches, depression, loneliness. Eventually, my high IQ brain (irony?) lighted up - sign up for a $500 overdraft and place 1 more bet. Placed the bet last Friday (August 12 2016). Won $500. Placed a $1k bet on saturday. Won $1000. Placed a $2000 bet at +115 odds. WON ~$2600. That's roughly $4600 in total (+$4100). Paid off my credit card, my overdraft was cleared. Got myself banned from all the sports bookies I had accounts with. 2 days since - feel great. Energy is back to normal. Not depressed. Headaches are gone. Anxiety is going away. Tempted to make another bet, however, self control is keeping me back (didn't have that 1 week ago). Thankfully, throughout these 4 years I have been working on my businesses. They've been growing. Good news now? All the profits go back into the business instead of being wagered on sports.

Moral of the story? Don't gamble. Easier said than done, I'm still recovering. I don't think I'll be gambling again even for "fun". I treated it as a business and it still got me addicted and hating life. Thankfully my last $500 bet with overdraft money hit, otherwise I wouldn't be posting this today. And no... This isn't coming from your average sports better. I was and still am very great at handicapping games. There are times where I would go 10-0. I would make $5k a day sometimes... But that addiction that comes hand in hand with gambling... is what destroys you. When you no longer have the money to place a bet, you start doing "stuff" to get that money to place those bets.

Thinking of what I've went through these 4 years brings haunting memories... I'm glad it's over, for now at least...

Sorry for the long post, just trying to save another young one from this lifestyle. Good to be back on the forums though!
 
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devine

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Right.

While I congratulate you on finding a successful area in tennis and making some money from it (without knowing the exact details/amounts/longevity/who you were betting with), please don't recklessly encourage people with comments that sound like they were taken from a bookmaker's advertisement.

Also, telling people to be cold is a bit like telling them to be determined. It's true but it would be slightly more wonderful if they could buy a bottle of coldness or determination as needed.
As I said, this is not how betting works.
Betting is not about luck or "successful area", it's about math.
There are services that sell predictions with 90%+ accuracy. Flat-betting 5% of your bank, it's perfectly possible to raise your bank by 50% in one day.

Also, a strategy of betting that I don't recommend following due to potential harm to nervous system, because here you really need a bottle of coldness and determination:
Betting with these predictions, you can allocate 200usd and bet 20 usd with k=2 (if you win, you double your bet) ladder system, until your ladder will be successful. k not always equals 2, it can be anywhere from 1.7 to 2+. Betting with k<1.7 with ladder system doesn't worth it.
If you lose 10 times out of 10, you'll only lose 200 usd.

But if just one ladder will be successful, you'll have:
Initial: 20
1. 40
2. 80
3. 160
4. 320
5. 640
6. 1280
7. 2560
8. 5120
9. 10240
10. 20480

Risking 200 usd is not a serious loss. But considering you can return all your money back on step 4, (it's perfectly possible to win 4 times in a row with 90%+ accuracy predictions), it's much more likely that you'll at least get all your money back.
And winning 7-8 times in a row happens on daily basis.

Now the catch: it's hard to stop when you're winning. Especially, when you're winning 8-9-10 times in a row.
 

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bet·ting
ˈbediNG/
noun
  1. the act of gambling money on the outcome of a race, game, or other unpredictable event.
It's unpredictable, there is no safe way to bet.

You can make assumptions and do research who will be the likely winner, but there are so many factors you can't research.

Can you make money?Possibly, can you do it safely? No.
 

devine

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wow! never thought of that! to find 90% and k>1,7 is difficult i think
Not actually, I'm currently on a community page of one of our famous betting communities and majority of predictions posted here are k>1.65, with stats 20-3 for yesterday.
It's not a problem to find good predictions with good k, the problem is to stop and get your money while it's still yours.
 

IGP

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As I said, this is not how betting works.
Betting is not about luck or "successful area", it's about math.
There are services that sell predictions with 90%+ accuracy. Flat-betting 5% of your bank, it's perfectly possible to raise your bank by 50% in one day.

Also, a strategy of betting that I don't recommend following due to potential harm to nervous system, because here you really need a bottle of coldness and determination:
Betting with these predictions, you can allocate 200usd and bet 20 usd with k=2 (if you win, you double your bet) ladder system, until your ladder will be successful. k not always equals 2, it can be anywhere from 1.7 to 2+. Betting with k<1.7 with ladder system doesn't worth it.
If you lose 10 times out of 10, you'll only lose 200 usd.

But if just one ladder will be successful, you'll have:
Initial: 20
1. 40
2. 80
3. 160
4. 320
5. 640
6. 1280
7. 2560
8. 5120
9. 10240
10. 20480

Risking 200 usd is not a serious loss. But considering you can return all your money back on step 4, (it's perfectly possible to win 4 times in a row with 90%+ accuracy predictions), it's much more likely that you'll at least get all your money back.
And winning 7-8 times in a row happens on daily basis.

Now the catch: it's hard to stop when you're winning. Especially, when you're winning 8-9-10 times in a row.
Dude, you're high! Lay off the crack!

"Winning 7-8 times in a row happens on a daily basis?" LMAO...

If system plays actually worked, people wouldn't be selling them to you. They would be stacking their money to the moon. And Vegas wouldn't have billion dollar casinos on every corner.

[HASHTAG]#INB4[/HASHTAG] you tell me to learn about odds or some other stupid shit!
 

Veloce Grey

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On the plus side I now know how MJ and co feel when the MLM guys come on here to tell everyone about the infinite money they're making and how they're so generous they'd be willing to share their secret o_O
 

devine

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Dude, you're high! Lay off the crack!

"Winning 7-8 times in a row happens on a daily basis?" LMAO...

If system plays actually worked, people wouldn't be selling them to you. They would be stacking their money to the moon. And Vegas wouldn't have billion dollar casinos on every corner.

[HASHTAG]#INB4[/HASHTAG] you tell me to learn about odds or some other stupid shit!
F*ckbet for example has a long ~5 year history of doing this kind of stuff. Aydin did this so many times that he stopped caring about winning 10 times in a row and in 2014 spent 2 months (I was betting along with him), day after day, trying to win 20 times in a row. All admins of this page are multi-millionaires and people live off their free predictions.

And now a little bit of rant:
Lately I see more and more people on TFLF who are ridiculously ignorant. People, who throw statements based on nothing but their lack of knowledge, lack of experience, lack of competence in a particular field.
You guess too much, you don't back up your words with anything but your assumptions, based on your average experience in your average life.
 

Veloce Grey

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F*ckbet for example has a long ~5 year history of doing this kind of stuff. Aydin did this so many times that he stopped caring about winning 10 times in a row and in 2014 spent 2 months (I was betting along with him), day after day, trying to win 20 times in a row. All admins of this page are multi-millionaires and people live off their free predictions.

And now a little bit of rant:
Lately I see more and more people on TFLF who are ridiculously ignorant. People, who throw statements based on nothing but their lack of knowledge, lack of experience, lack of competence in a particular field.
You guess too much, you don't back up your words with anything but your assumptions, based on your average experience in your average life
.
Well, if you want, we could both explain to the forum our respective levels of experience with betting, how many people we know in the various parts of the betting industry and therefore get unreported information from, how many jobs we've each been offered in that field, how many years of discussions and forum posts we have online across different betting sites, the sites we've run, the gamblers we've known, the scams we've seen straight through over the years, the bookmakers that have banned us etc

We could explain that to this unbiased audience who mostly don't know either of us from a bar of soap. And since you like a bet we could put money on who the forum would vote is more qualified to comment on this.

But quite simply I'd win and I don't need your money.

That and I'm currently spending time watching races, checking odds, monitoring new reports, updating NFL stuff and so on so don't feel inclined to type 10,000 words.
 

devine

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Well, if you want, we could both explain to the forum our respective levels of experience with betting, how many people we know in the various parts of the betting industry and therefore get unreported information from, how many jobs we've each been offered in that field, how many years of discussions and forum posts we have online across different betting sites, the sites we've run, the gamblers we've known, the scams we've seen straight through over the years, the bookmakers that have banned us etc

We could explain that to this unbiased audience who mostly don't know either of us from a bar of soap. And since you like a bet we could put money on who the forum would vote is more qualified to comment on this.

But quite simply I'd win and I don't need your money.

That and I'm currently spending time watching races, checking odds, monitoring new reports, updating NFL stuff and so on so don't feel inclined to type 10,000 words.
Now explain to me in a single sentence what does it have to do with a fact that 7-8 times in a row is a usual streak for betting.
Considering Aydin's current streak is 8-0, and today I opened his community page out of blue.

Problems with logics and constructive thinking seem to be too common.
 
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IGP

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Now explain to me in a single sentence what does it have to do with a fact that 7-8 times in a row is a usual streak for betting.
Considering Aydin's current streak is 8-0, and today I opened his community page out of blue.

Problems with logics and constructive thinking seem to be too common.
Sheep gonna sheep... What can I say!

Good luck to you!
 

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I gamble a lot! ...on myself.

I'm my own bookie. I can stack the odds how I like through focused effort. The casino is never closed and I'm the rake. I can bet however big and however often my gut allows. Every loss makes me stronger. Every win makes the next win bigger...and it really only takes 1 or 2 big wins to totally change the game. :) How can you not go all-in on yourself with business and backing of the TFF?
 

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Are you skilled in Texas Holdem? If not, forget about gambling. I do know a couple friends who make a ton of cash with poker, but they're good, they got the skills to pull it off and crush anyone they play against.

When it comes to sport betting and casinos (slots, etc), just stay far away. I bet on football because I love it and it makes the games more enjoyable to watch, but I don't put a lot of cash down or I just get pissed off after losing it.

Or, like the other guy said, bookie...but even that route, I would stay away, then you have to hire guys to hunt down dudes who don't pay up...just as dirty as drug dealing.
 

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Here is a little bit of a secret that was told to me many, many years ago. It requires being able to see opening lines and then being able to place bets shortly before the game starts. It's not fool proof so take it for what it's worth.

This was introduced to me through college football.

Let's say you have Team A and Team B playing. The point spread opens:

Team A: -10
Team B: +10

The amount bet on the spread is 70% for A and 30% for B.

That means most bettors (Squares) are betting on Team A to cover the spread of -10 points. This would theoretically push the point spread to, say, -13.

Bookies want even money placed on both teams so they either have to make the favorite less attractive or make the underdog more attractive.

What you're looking for is right before game time when the point spread moves in the opposite direction. For example, right before game time you see the point spread change:

Team A: -7
Team B: +7

What is causing this move?

Remember, the bookies want even money so why would they make the original favorite, Team A more attractive (Team A needs less points to cover)?

The professional bettors (Sharks) know something and they are waiting until right before game time when they have all of the information possible. The pros are throwing money on the underdog. When the bookies see this, they are changing the line to make Team A more attractive to try to get more money flowing the other way.

You're goal is to find these changes and bet on the underdog.

The example used at the time I was being taught this system was when Oregon played Arizona. Oregon opened as the powerhouse favorite. However, right before game time the point spread changed in a way that didn't make sense, in Arizona's favor. The best bet here was to bet on Arizona. What the Sharks learned was that Oregon's starting quarterback had an ACL injury that wasn't reported. Sure enough, during the game, he tore his ACL and Arizona ended up winning a huge game.

I tried this system for awhile and found that you'll be betting on the underdog nearly every game. It also works for over/unders. One of the big filters is that you need to find the games that have a majority betting on one side. Usually anything 70/30 or better. 60/40 in some instances. It makes the signals for the line changes more obvious.

Again, this is not a 100% winning system. You will lose some games. Practice good bankroll management and bet at your own risk. I make no guarantees from giving you this information.
 

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Here is a little bit of a secret that was told to me many, many years ago. It requires being able to see opening lines and then being able to place bets shortly before the game starts. It's not fool proof so take it for what it's worth.

This was introduced to me through college football.

Let's say you have Team A and Team B playing. The point spread opens:

Team A: -10
Team B: +10

The amount bet on the spread is 70% for A and 30% for B.

That means most bettors (Squares) are betting on Team A to cover the spread of -10 points. This would theoretically push the point spread to, say, -13.

Bookies want even money placed on both teams so they either have to make the favorite less attractive or make the underdog more attractive.

What you're looking for is right before game time when the point spread moves in the opposite direction. For example, right before game time you see the point spread change:

Team A: -7
Team B: +7

What is causing this move?

Remember, the bookies want even money so why would they make the original favorite, Team A more attractive (Team A needs less points to cover)?

The professional bettors (Sharks) know something and they are waiting until right before game time when they have all of the information possible. The pros are throwing money on the underdog. When the bookies see this, they are changing the line to make Team A more attractive to try to get more money flowing the other way.

You're goal is to find these changes and bet on the underdog.

The example used at the time I was being taught this system was when Oregon played Arizona. Oregon opened as the powerhouse favorite. However, right before game time the point spread changed in a way that didn't make sense, in Arizona's favor. The best bet here was to bet on Arizona. What the Sharks learned was that Oregon's starting quarterback had an ACL injury that wasn't reported. Sure enough, during the game, he tore his ACL and Arizona ended up winning a huge game.

I tried this system for awhile and found that you'll be betting on the underdog nearly every game. It also works for over/unders. One of the big filters is that you need to find the games that have a majority betting on one side. Usually anything 70/30 or better. 60/40 in some instances. It makes the signals for the line changes more obvious.

Again, this is not a 100% winning system. You will lose some games. Practice good bankroll management and bet at your own risk. I make no guarantees from giving you this information.
This is called "Reverse Line Movement (RLM)". Usually the one's causing that RLM are the big guns. People that place $100k on a single game. Enough money to move lines. This was exactly how I placed my bets. As Inspire mentioned, NOT foolproof. However, your odds are MUCH better than the general bettor.

Take last years super bowl. 60-70% of the wagers placed were on the Panthers. However, vegas and the bookmakers were giving more and more points to the Panthers (i.e. they need to score less to cover the spread). Now why would vegas give less points to a team that has 60-70% of the bets placed on them? To the rookie bettor, they saw free money. Outcome? Broncos won outright.

Keep in mind, sharps lose. Sharps can lose 5 games in a row. If you have money you're willing to burn, pick sharp plays for a week. Bet the same amount. For example, start with $1k. Bet to win $200 a game (i.e. wager $220 at -110 lines to win $200). Bet on only 1-2 games/day (avoid betting every day or trying to recover losses. If you do decide to go with this, I would highly suggest you bet MLB (major league baseball) and nothing else. Lot's of money to be made in baseball right now. If you want the sharp plays, PM me and I'll give you baseball picks that are favored by sharps (sharps = sharks) for free, no catch. But, I highly suggest OP or anyone else to stay away from gambling. I do not condone gambling whatsoever.
 

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Any progression system will eventually snap. Gamblers go through windows of luck where they feel either like they are gifted, or like they have a system. Then the crash inevitably happens.

There are varying degrees of risk and risk mitigation, but anyone that tells you that there is any system, in any gambling sector, that can produce consistent positive results is delusional and likely has gambling blindness.

You can find an edge by fleecing suckers out of money through tactics, but that does not equal gambling success or prowess. That's fleecing less intelligent or less sophisticated hobby gamblers. When a newbie shows up at a poker table and loses his stacks, that doesn't mean you're a great gambler with mad skills or systems. It more than likely means you just took advantage of someone for your gain at their loss. Nobody forces their hand, so the money is there to be taken.

Streaks of +8 are as common as streaks of -8 in most games of chance. Insider information, manipulation, or capitalizing on inexperienced gamblers certainly can stack odds, but that doesn't create a sustainable income unless it's a repeatable hustle. A repeatable hustle doesn't make you an expert gambler --- it makes you an expert hustler.

and a message just for @devine. You can disagree with me or anyone here, and you can even wage a debate. However, the one thing you aren't going to do is besmearch the forum or it's posters en total. We've got too much blood and sweat into making this place what it is to have someone take desecrate it because you happen to disagree with (common) opinions, or other people's experiences. I'll write that rant off as a momentary lapse in judgment unless you prove otherwise.
 

MoneyDoc

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Any progression system will eventually snap. Gamblers go through windows of luck where they feel either like they are gifted, or like they have a system. Then the crash inevitably happens.

There are varying degrees of risk and risk mitigation, but anyone that tells you that there is any system, in any gambling sector, that can produce consistent positive results is delusional and likely has gambling blindness.

You can find an edge by fleecing suckers out of money through tactics, but that does not equal gambling success or prowess. That's fleecing less intelligent or less sophisticated hobby gamblers. When a newbie shows up at a poker table and loses his stacks, that doesn't mean you're a great gambler with mad skills or systems. It more than likely means you just took advantage of someone for your gain at their loss. Nobody forces their hand, so the money is there to be taken.

Streaks of +8 are as common as streaks of -8 in most games of chance. Insider information, manipulation, or capitalizing on inexperienced gamblers certainly can stack odds, but that doesn't create a sustainable income unless it's a repeatable hustle.

and a message just for @devine. You can disagree with me or anyone here, and you can even wage a debate. However, the one thing you aren't going to do is besmearch the forum or it's posters en total. We've got too much blood and sweat into making this place what it is to have someone take desecrate it because you happen to disagree with (common) opinions, or other people's experiences. I'll write that rant off as a momentary lapse in judgment unless you prove otherwise.
Very important point by Vigilante. Imagine starting on a -8 streak... You'll be down A LOT of money. Trust me, gamblers do not have self control no matter how much you try. Imagine starting off on a -8 streak and doubling your wager each time. Starting with $100, do the math.
 

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Very important point by Vigilante. Imagine starting on a -8 streak... You'll be down A LOT of money. Trust me, gamblers do not have self control no matter how much you try. Imagine starting off on a -8 streak and doubling your wager each time. Starting with $100, do the math.
I've been there. Chasing it. Not understanding how the odds can break so bad. Fighting to get it back. Getting deeper. Watching roll after roll or hand after hand break every single oddsmakers rules. Trying to play the reverse progressive to get back to zero. Sinking deeper. Not understanding how basic discipline isn't breaking something. Odds are making no sense. Sure things are breaking. Everything is breaking. World is closing in. The fun is gone. You're underwater. It's as if you fell through the ice and can't find the hole. Lungs filling up with water.

Walking away vowing to never play again. Until a few days later.

For every gambling buzz I have ever had from a big win, there's a deeper low that you have to trick your mind into forgetting to enable yourself to belly up to the bar for one more.

Then you win. Then momentum shifts. Then you get your mojo back. Then you become untouchable again. Then you forget what happened last week, last month, last year. Until... history repeats itself again. It ALWAYS will.
 
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MoneyDoc

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I've been there. Chasing it. Not understanding how the odds can break so bad. Fighting to get it back. Getting deeper. Watching roll after roll or hand after hand break every single oddsmakers rules. Trying to play the reverse progressive to get back to zero. Sinking deeper. Not understanding how basic discipline isn't breaking something. Odds are making no sense. Sure things are breaking. Everything is breaking. World is closing in. The fun is gone. You're underwater. It's as if you fell through the ice and can't find the hole. Lungs filling up with water.

For every gambling buzz I have ever had from a big win, there's a deeper low that you have to trick your mind into forgetting to enable yourself to belly up to the bar for one more.

Then you win. Then momentum shifts. Then you get your mojo back. Then you become untouchable again. Then you forget what happened last week, last month, last year. Until... history repeats itself again. It ALWAYS will.
Man Vigi, you just brought back so many memories. THIS WAS EXACTLY ME 2 weeks ago.
 

Vigilante

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Many Vigi, you just brought back so many memories. THIS WAS EXACTLY ME 2 weeks ago.
There's only one way to break the cycle. It's to push back, realize that over time the best you can hope for is break even. Looking at it as entertainment, and disciplining yourself into a bankroll of money you'd be OK losing.

I've gambled money before that would have been 10x better deployed into funding business initiatives. I've gambled against odds I knew over time would beat me, hoping for an element of luck. I gambled away money I needed for other things, and then had to figure out how to cover the nut I needed. If I had skipped the casino, I had enough to do what I needed to do. Then, I didn't.

I walked away on an upnote. That was the only way to win. Not to ever put the money on the line again.

I still will gamble (mostly on horses) but for the love of the game, the love of the math, and the intellectual chess match.

The only way I can ensure I win is if I never give it back. In 2016, I have 2 tax forms from 2 casinos. But, the most I ever had at risk in 2016 was a few hundred bucks. I am not saying I was a high roller (I wasn't), but I got enough of a taste the years prior of the emotional swings and highs and deep lows that I now play only for fun and only with a reasonable bank roll. The wins feel better, and the losses don't hurt when you play for fun.

If I am going to gamble in the future, I'll gamble on myself, on my business, and on my future. Those are gambles in which I can better effect the odds. Calculated, non-delusional risks with a much better ROI.
 
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