Is the market growing or declining?

[Qeno]

Hi,
for example, the newspaper market is declining, but (just for example) there are more and more newspapers opening and my business would be only interested in the newspaper firms. Would then the market, in which the business would like to sell, decline?
Or generalized: Is the interested submarket declining when the general market is declining?

Thank you very much in advance!

 

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[Spenny]

It is very wet outside. I want to walk back to my delorean from my friends house.

I take an umbrella to keep me dry. It's huge and not a drop of rain falls on me. I walk and walk....



Then I realise that my then I realise that my umbrella is mysteriously shrinking! And the rain is a lot worse!!!


I have to turn around back to my friends house because I'm soaked to death. I'd never make it to my car.

The car is your goal of having a pile of cash/car/freedom
The rain is the onslaught of business.
The umbrella is your sector that youre in (eg newspapers)
And me being under the umbrella is your business - soggy & exposed to the elements.

If a sector gets smaller and your business is in that sector, you'd think it would be proportional. Money can be made, please do not get me wrong. Sometimes the places no one is looking or going "bah thats a dying industry" is where money can be made. But generally, the pie gets smaller. (or the umbrella)

Note: I know umbrellas dont shrink but you get my analogy!

 

[Qeno]

Thank you really much for your answer! The analogy is really great but to make it a whole and right to my example above, isn't there something missing? The general sector (newspaper as a whole) is shrinking, while the subsector (number of newspaper) is growing.

 

[Spenny]

Thank you really much for your answer! The analogy is really great but to make it a whole and right to my example above, isn't there something missing? The general sector (newspaper as a whole) is shrinking, while the subsector (number of newspaper) is growing.

Bottom line: is there a demand for it? If there is and the sector is declining, maybe you've got an exception? To be honest in startup it shouldn't matter what the macro trends are, you may only get 0.000001% of the pie when you start.

 

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[Qeno]

Bottom line: is there a demand for it? If there is and the sector is declining, maybe you've got an exception? To be honest in startup it shouldn't matter what the macro trends are, you may only get 0.000001% of the pie when you start.

There should be demand, but I'm going to test it. Thank you for your answer!