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IS COVID 19 THE TIME TO FORGE AHEAD?

Walter Hay

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My Release Agent Chemical business was thriving in 1973 when a huge international crisis struck the world economy.

A coalition of Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar. Coincidentally it happened to be during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, so the surprise was complete.

To keep this story short I will fast forward to the OIL CRISIS OF 1973, brought about by a decision by Arab oil exporting nations to impose an oil embargo on Western nations deemed to have supported Israel. The result was a worldwide economic disaster, much of it a result of PANIC.

Manufacturing businesses shut down in many Western countries as though there was no tomorrow. In Australia my business screeched to a halt because the products I supplied to manufacturers were aids to manufacture. I had been basking in the pleasure of having constant repeat orders flowing in for the simple reason that if my customers did not have a supply of my products they had no option but to cease production. Now they suddenly stopped production out of fear.

For months I had no sales - no income. If this sounds eerily similar to the situation brought about by COVID 19, it is! There was no sense in what was happening.

Life went on. People were still buying manufactured stuff, but suddenly there were shortages.

I had sufficient funds on hand to easily weather the storm, but was there anything I could do to get out of this hole? Lo and behold, one of my raw material suppliers, a very large American company decided to close down their Australian business. They approached me, telling me how much they had in stock of the raw material I had been buying.

Not phased by the doom and gloom I bought their entire stock. It was a huge purchase, even at the heavily discounted price I paid, but it paid off handsomely when the world woke up one day and realized that life was still going on. Orders began rolling in and I was was like a dog chasing its tail trying to maintain production and deliveries.

The beginning and end of this worldwide crisis were both incredibly sudden. Madness had afflicted business people everywhere. They had never experienced such a situation and were totally unprepared to handle it, so they panicked. Then the sober reality dawned that the world had not ended.

Will the current epidemic end the same way? I think the panic mode will gradually subside this time, but meanwhile opportunities abound. If you have not wasted your earnings, and have looked to the future there are new and old businesses that await your entrepreneurial spirit to start, build, acquire, and grow.

Walter
 
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My Release Agent Chemical business was thriving in 1973 when a huge international crisis struck the world economy.

A coalition of Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar. Coincidentally it happened to be during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, so the surprise was complete.

To keep this story short I will fast forward to the OIL CRISIS OF 1973, brought about by a decision by Arab oil exporting nations to impose an oil embargo on Western nations deemed to have supported Israel. The result was a worldwide economic disaster, much of it a result of PANIC.

Manufacturing businesses shut down in many Western countries as though there was no tomorrow. In Australia my business screeched to a halt because the products I supplied to manufacturers were aids to manufacture. I had been basking in the pleasure of having constant repeat orders flowing in for the simple reason that if my customers did not have a supply of my products they had no option but to cease production. Now they suddenly stopped production out of fear.

For months I had no sales - no income. If this sounds eerily similar to the situation brought about by COVID 19, it is! There was no sense in what was happening.

Life went on. People were still buying manufactured stuff, but suddenly there were shortages.

I had sufficient funds on hand to easily weather the storm, but was there anything I could do to get out of this hole? Lo and behold, one of my raw material suppliers, a very large American company decided to close down their Australian business. They approached me, telling me how much they had in stock of the raw material I had been buying.

Not phased by the doom and gloom I bought their entire stock. It was a huge purchase, even at the heavily discounted price I paid, but it paid off handsomely when the world woke up one day and realized that life was still going on. Orders began rolling in and I was was like a dog chasing its tail trying to maintain production and deliveries.

The beginning and end of this worldwide crisis were both incredibly sudden. Madness had afflicted business people everywhere. They had never experienced such a situation and were totally unprepared to handle it, so they panicked. Then the sober reality dawned that the world had not ended.

Will the current epidemic end the same way? I think the panic mode will gradually subside this time, but meanwhile opportunities abound. If you have not wasted your earnings, and have looked to the future there are new and old businesses that await your entrepreneurial spirit to start, build, acquire, and grow.

Walter
^^^^THIS is why we cannot afford to lose the older generation.

@Walter Hay your knowledge, perspective, and generosity are an absolutely incredible gift to all of us.

Please keep on sharing.
 

Walter Hay

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View attachment 31389
The 1973 oil crisis was not the only time I had to survive a dramatic downturn but my business survived each time because of my fiscal conservatism, and each time when the shattered dreams, foreclosures and other terrible things were over, the disastrous immediate past was replaced by a boom.

My father didn't manage so well in 1930. He quickly lost his large trucking business, his home, and his bank account, and for a while the family was destitute. But after living in a shack about the size of a single garage with my mother and my 9 older siblings for 7 years (about the time I was born) he turned his life around and when WW2 started he was very comfortable again.

Downs don't last forever as that historical chart well illustrates.

Walter
 

Walter Hay

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I wish I had people like you physically around me, I wouldn't be so depressed right now.
Depression is a complex subject, but I do know that to overcome depression caused by a crisis that can make you feel helpless the best treatment is action.

Plan, yes, but set that plan in motion as soon as you are physically and financially able. You will feel so much better.

Best wishes,
Walter
 

Walter Hay

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Depends what you're selling...
Now might not be the time to try to continue selling whatever you have been selling before the virus changed everything.

It's more likely a time for brainstorming, preparing, planning, finding new needs to suit the current situation, and possible future ones for the time when normality returns.

Once you experience that light bulb moment, with time on your hands the obvious next step is to set the wheels in motion.

If none of this works for the present, the enforced isolation could be used as an opportunity to learn.

Walter
 
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“Improvise, Adapt, and Overcome” - USMC
This has been the primary mantra that has gotten me through this.

The stark reality of one day watching the cash register ring up ka-ching one after the other and within 48 hours all I'm hearing is chirping. In-store sales have dropped 60%, online orders have fallen about the same.
I've only had to lay off one employee so far but in order to remain open I've had to drop every employees hours down to about 24 hours weekly. Had a long talk with each of them and they would rather work than take a layoff.

Now might not be the time to try to continue selling whatever you have been selling before the virus changed everything.
This is the truth. We have to focus on what we can offer and not focus on what we have offered in the past.
Most of our local business's are closed due to a 'stay at home order' unless you are regarded as an 'essential business' Fortunately, we are regarded as essential as we sell safety equipment. Added to that, one of my operations is that I'm also a U-haul dealer and that is regarded as essential though it isn't a primary source of revenue, although it does quite well.

I told all of my employees that we may end up having no customers in the store but we can be the largest U-Haul private dealer in our area if we work toward that. Most smaller dealers cannot remain open as the lack of customers coupled with lack of parking, location, etc makes it financially unfeasible. Many of these dealerships are temporarily closing up. I contacted our UHaul corporate office and told them to route us all the equipment they can, and I'll stack the equipment in our parking lot. I knew if we had the equipment, they would send us the reservations coupled with smaller stores closing.
We are beginning to see the effect of that decision and hopefully will allow us to remain busy, plus the added effect of selling gloves, safety glasses, moving supplies etc all adds to the bottom line.

Pivot & Adapt.
 

Walter Hay

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I have received reports that the logistics chain in China is beginning to get back into operation. If logistics can be sorted out in the countries where you are selling and are able to deliver for you, maybe now is a good time to restart your online selling.

Amazon still won't receive shipments of what they class as non-essential goods, but if you can figure out what essential goods you can supply it could be worth a try.

Some new enterprises might start up offering supplies to beat boredom. Both adults and children can quickly suffer from cabin fever, so there could be a big opportunity.

It is clear to me from the considerable recent upsurge in sales of my books that there are members who even if not ready to go right now are preparing.

Several have told me that they will not be sourcing from China, and their main purpose in buying my sourcing book is to take advantage of the present situation by importing from other countries.

This crisis could even lead to a big shift in global trade.

Walter
 

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I've sold more the last 10 days than I do in a normal 60. Calling everyone and selling while everyone else is hunkering down. We've started calling ourselves Corona Pirates :rofl:
 
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Yes, I think it's the time to forge ahead. We can win by attrition where others quit. And we can show our customers that we're reliable even in tough times, and earn their gratitude and continued business. Thank you Walter.
 
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@Walter Hay , this is the dominant discussion in our house. Both mine and my wife's businesses have been closed by the authorities. But we are entertaining all off the wall ideas that come to us for new enterprises. When this is over, nothing dictates that we have to do the same thing we were doing prior.

And, it keeps us sane.
 
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MoneyDoc

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My Release Agent Chemical business was thriving in 1973 when a huge international crisis struck the world economy.

A coalition of Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar. Coincidentally it happened to be during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, so the surprise was complete.

To keep this story short I will fast forward to the OIL CRISIS OF 1973, brought about by a decision by Arab oil exporting nations to impose an oil embargo on Western nations deemed to have supported Israel. The result was a worldwide economic disaster, much of it a result of PANIC.

Manufacturing businesses shut down in many Western countries as though there was no tomorrow. In Australia my business screeched to a halt because the products I supplied to manufacturers were aids to manufacture. I had been basking in the pleasure of having constant repeat orders flowing in for the simple reason that if my customers did not have a supply of my products they had no option but to cease production. Now they suddenly stopped production out of fear.

For months I had no sales - no income. If this sounds eerily similar to the situation brought about by COVID 19, it is! There was no sense in what was happening.

Life went on. People were still buying manufactured stuff, but suddenly there were shortages.

I had sufficient funds on hand to easily weather the storm, but was there anything I could do to get out of this hole? Lo and behold, one of my raw material suppliers, a very large American company decided to close down their Australian business. They approached me, telling me how much they had in stock of the raw material I had been buying.

Not phased by the doom and gloom I bought their entire stock. It was a huge purchase, even at the heavily discounted price I paid, but it paid off handsomely when the world woke up one day and realized that life was still going on. Orders began rolling in and I was was like a dog chasing its tail trying to maintain production and deliveries.

The beginning and end of this worldwide crisis were both incredibly sudden. Madness had afflicted business people everywhere. They had never experienced such a situation and were totally unprepared to handle it, so they panicked. Then the sober reality dawned that the world had not ended.

Will the current epidemic end the same way? I think the panic mode will gradually subside this time, but meanwhile opportunities abound. If you have not wasted your earnings, and have looked to the future there are new and old businesses that await your entrepreneurial spirit to start, build, acquire, and grow.

Walter
Love this post Walter!

I wish I had people like you physically around me, I wouldn't be so depressed right now.

This will end, sooner than we expect. Businesses will re-open. The world will "resume". Stocks will soar. New businesses started by entrepreneurs who are PLANNING now instead of constantly refreshing CNN and arguing politics, will boom. Oil prices will soar. And morning commutes will resume.

I'm really looking at new opportunities in raw materials, manufacturing, and this whole "domestic" supply approach and to make these as automated as possible so that in a future crisis, I won't need staff to run the plant or it will be as minimal as possible.
 
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Walter Hay

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@MoneyDoc Thanks for asking such an important question.

First, let me say that the chickens have come home to roost. The lack of foresight in transferring production overseas has proven to be costly. In the late 1970s I saw first-hand the movement to manufacture overseas.

I was in Taiwan, visiting factories with a distributor selling my Release Agent Chemicals. The company president bemoaned the fact that competition from Mainland China was taking away a lot of their business.

Soon after, I discovered that many of the companies that I was dealing with in HK and Mainland China were owned and managed by Taiwanese. They were chasing the low labor costs.

I visited some of the manufacturers in China who were using my products and the moment I walked into one factory that was producing plywood, I immediately recognized the machinery. I was familiar with the factory in Australia where it had been producing plywood for many years, and it still bore some of the symbols and words written with marking pens in Australia.

The move to China was substantial and it devastated the plywood manufacturing industry in Australia. Only a small number remain, but they are competing successfully against imports from China.

I am also familiar with that industry in North America (NA) where the story is similar, but not so devastating. The remaining industry there is still many times bigger than it ever was in Australia. Companies that remained operating in NA have mostly grown substantially, many with multiple production facilities across both the US and Canada.

One company in Canada beat the low labor cost trend by building the most amazing automated plywood mill I have ever seen. Two or three operators control the entire mill that puts out at least as much as the most productive large mill that I have ever seen.

With the attitude that I have seen in that industry alone, my answer is yes, I think that after the economic panic subsides, there could well be a domestic manufacturing boom.

Walter
 

Walter Hay

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Although the majority of business activity by forum members seems to be B2C, I suggest that it could be time to start thinking about B2B for opportunities for when COVID is gone.

As a natural follow on from B2C, most seem to think of B2B as wholesaling consumer products. I am talking about selling goods and services to businesses that need those on a continuing basis.

In effect this makes my view of B2B more like supplying business consumables and services needed by businesses to keep operating and growing.

Every industry needs services from outside in order to function and grow.

Every industry needs many products to keep operating, even things as mundane as pens and paper for those who still write or print. (I am not suggesting stationery as a good business - it's very crowded.)

Like every business that has employees on their premises they even need toilet paper.:hilarious:

See this list of industries published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics List of Industries to help you think of an industry that you could supply with ???????? (The answer could switch you to such a Fastlane as you never dreamed of.)

No doubt you will find all of those industries already have suppliers, but since when has competition scared off Fastlaners?

I think many of those suppliers could have failed due to the economic crisis, so there could be wide open gaps to fill.

With time on your hands, get on and DO IT.

Walter
 
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I think the panic mode will gradually subside this time, but meanwhile opportunities abound. If you have not wasted your earnings, and have looked to the future there are new and old businesses that await your entrepreneurial spirit to start, build, acquire, and grow.
Awesome insight, thanks Walter. Definitely making me think a bit differently about future ideas and opportunities. Those that make it out of this will reap the rewards!
 

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Let's get rid of the doom and gloom.:happy:

  • Is the US economy really going to collapse? NO.
  • When did it ever collapse? The nearest it ever came to that was the time of the Great Depression, but Democrat Franklin D's New Deal brought it back to life.
  • What about 2008? It was heading towards it but the Fed's guarantees restored hope in the money market and stopped the downward spiral.
Well this little summary might bring criticism, but I offer it to show that the US economy has in the past, and again can be revived from even the brink of catastrophe.

Because so many are comparing the COVID's likely recession with the Great Depression which lasted over a decade, by contrast consider that the average duration of more recent US recessions is measured in months. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 lasted 18 months.

Surely the message of recession history is that governments and the Fed have a track record of being able to bring the economy back up when it's severely down.

I have been contacted by several who are making determined plans to be ready. We have had online discussions and they have asked my opinion. They range from a husband and wife team who are using their confinement to prepare setting up a service industry to handle what they expect to be a great need, through to one who has a lot of capital ready to invest in a large scale B2B business once he finds the right opportunity.

I will admit that although I have no intention of starting another business at my age, I have been thinking of a way to see my first business brought back to life, but by someone else. The forced isolation certainly gets the creative juices flowing. Without all that time on my hands I would probably not have even thought about it.

Walter
 
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Walter Hay

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Yes I have witnessed the 08 panic, now is the time to keep solving problems and offering value while everyone else psyches themself out.

There’s more to lose from paralysis than measured action.

is it true China’s production is back online?
There are many reports that some factories are back in production, but the real problem currently is transporting those goods to buyers, whether getting them to countries other than China, or delivering them to the importers once in the destination port, and then to the importers' customers.

The chain is currently broken.

Walter
 
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Now might not be the time to try to continue selling whatever you have been selling before the virus changed everything.

It's more likely a time for brainstorming, preparing, planning, finding new needs to suit the current situation, and possible future ones for the time when normality returns.

Once you experience that light bulb moment, with time on your hands the obvious next step is to set the wheels in motion.

If none of this works for the present, the enforced isolation could be used as an opportunity to learn.
Good enough to print and put it on my wall for next week (except my printer isn’t working dammit).

Agreed. Draw a line in the sand Monday morning and reassess everything in the light of what’s happened in the past few weeks. Things are changing so fast.
 

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@Walter Hay ... Forge on ! Loved your write up !
I'm sitting on some cash, patiently scouring the horizon, looking, listening, for someone who needs cash. Someone who needs to sell something that makes sense to me. There will be so many opportunities out there. Probably are already. $$$.
 

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My son-in-law, who handles my book sales has reported yet again that sales continue to grow. This is after a period of a couple of months when it all went quiet.

It seems that this activity following a period of inactivity is a reflection of the widespread panic and despair being replaced by an awakening to new possibilities.

Walter
 

Walter Hay

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Coming from Europe before moving to NA, there have been many years of countries experiencing 15%+ unemployment and many companies have still succeeded. I believe Greece even had 30% unemployment for quite a period. Around 8% unemployment is standard in Italy. Do businesses still not succeed there?
Full employment is not a prerequisite for a successful business. Manufacturing in Italy continued to do well even when the big boys controlling EU policy were making life hard for them with demanding austerity measures.

Some very big importers continued to buy from Italy, and the reason for that? ..... QUALITY.

Not all of those successful Italian businesses were in the big league. I and my franchisees used to buy from a small Italian company, and I know from contact with one of my best former franchisees they are still buying from them - at least they were until the virus hit.

If such a small manufacturer could last through the EU imposed austerity siege which affected many EU countries, particularly Portugal, Greece, Italy and Spain, any business can succeed in tough times if they present the right products, with good quality, and good service. In the case of that company I refer to, both quality and service were excellent, but in addition, they were innovators always coming up with new ideas and improvements to their existing products.

Walter
 

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In my opinion, this thread needs to have daily posts as opposed to the other C0VlD-19 thread that got out hand real quick.

Anyways, @Walter Hay what are your thoughts on domestic manufacturing booming during & after this outbreak tames down? For example, I'm in Canada and I'm sure you heard of the 3M situation with face masks, we're so dependent on the USA for medical supplies. If you were an entrepreneur in Canada, would you look at this industry closely? Is this a one-off situation? Would you start a manufacturing plant in Canada? For example, Becton Dickinson has a head office in Canada, yet they act as importers in Canada for their own medical devices because they're all manufactured in the USA, Mexico, Spain, etc. Wouldn't it make sense to have a facility in Canada now?

Edit: Just registered the domains canadahospitalsupplies.com & canadahospitalsupplies.ca for the heck of it. Thinking of getting all the necessary regulatory approval and start acting as importer and quickly transition into a manufacturer for basic PPE for hospitals.
 
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Andy Black

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Although the majority of business activity by forum members seems to be B2C, I suggest that it could be time to start thinking about B2B for opportunities for when COVID is gone.

As a natural follow on from B2C, most seem to think of B2B as wholesaling consumer products. I am talking about selling goods and services to businesses that need those on a continuing basis.

In effect this makes my view of B2B more like supplying business consumables and services needed by businesses to keep operating and growing.

Every industry needs services from outside in order to function and grow.

Every industry needs many products to keep operating, even things as mundane as pens and paper for those who still write or print. (I am not suggesting stationery as a good business - it's very crowded.)

Like every business that has employees on their premises they even need toilet paper.:hilarious:

See this list of industries published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics List of Industries to help you think of an industry that you could supply with ???????? (The answer could switch you to such a Fastlane as you never dreamed of.)

No doubt you will find all of those industries already have suppliers, but since when has competition scared off Fastlaners?

I think many of those suppliers could have failed due to the economic crisis, so there could be wide open gaps to fill.

With time on your hands, get on and DO IT.

Walter
Interesting you say that Walter. I’m B2B2B and B2B2C. I’ve had a few clients pause their Google Ads campaigns, and a few clients dig deeper. Anecdotally the ones digging deeper are my B2B clients, and the ones pausing are the B2C clients. So I seem to naturally be ending up more a B2B2B service.
 

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I know that a lot of manufacturing industries have been left with no employees because they are not regarded as essential services.

Once there is any semblance of normality, you can bet that manufacturers will be firing up their equipment in order to meet the pent up demand. Supply chains will need to be revived, but the shutdown is likely to have left a number of businesses in the chain beyond resuscitation. You might be able to provide a missing link.

Manufacturing in many sectors will be needed if the entire economy is going to be able to obtain the goods or raw materials they need to get their production lines running. Without those manufacturing industries churning out their products a whole lot of other business sectors will be unable to function. Even industries such as furniture manufacturing, building, many trades, service industries etc., will be needing supplies that are currently almost impossible to obtain.

See this list of industries published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics List of Industries to help you think of an industry that you could supply with ???????? (The answer could switch you to such a Fastlane as you never dreamed of.)

I looked through the list of manufacturing industries in that U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and although a few might not have been shut down, there is plenty of scope in that list to find an industry sector that you could supply with goods or services, BUT............. you will need to be prepared.

Take note of the various business restart dates as they are announced. You will notice that some announcements have been for back to work in a relatively short time period after the announcement. Some of those dates have come and gone, but one of these days they will actually become a reality, and chances are the time lapse between the announcement and the actual return to work will be small.

That seems to be the way government works.

Only wise and astute entrepreneurs will be ready, and they could leave the rest choking in their dust.

Walter
 

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I have received reports that the logistics chain in China is beginning to get back into operation. If logistics can be sorted out in the countries where you are selling and are able to deliver for you, maybe now is a good time to restart your online selling.

Amazon still won't receive shipments of what they class as non-essential goods, but if you can figure out what essential goods you can supply it could be worth a try.

Some new enterprises might start up offering supplies to beat boredom. Both adults and children can quickly suffer from cabin fever, so there could be a big opportunity.

It is clear to me from the considerable recent upsurge in sales of my books that there are members who even if not ready to go right now are preparing.

Several have told me that they will not be sourcing from China, and their main purpose in buying my sourcing book is to take advantage of the present situation by importing from other countries.

This crisis could even lead to a big shift in global trade.

Walter
I say that it WILL lead to a big shift in global trade. I can't think of any time when a single point of failure is a good idea.
 
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Mckenzie

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Good enough to print and put it on my wall for next week (except my printer isn’t working dammit).

Agreed. Draw a line in the sand Monday morning and reassess everything in the light of what’s happened in the past few weeks. Things are changing so fast.
Well, I literally reassessed and reset everything in my life last week Friday afternoon 27th Mar. BUT, things just turning up-side-down again last night....things are changing at a shockingly & electrifying rates.
I'm going to vacuum & mop the floor now...that's the only thing stay 'normal' at this stage!
 
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amp0193

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Thanks Walter,

Panic set in last week, but making a plan and putting into action mostly quelched it. We're going to be ok, just had to frame the problem and think through the change of course needed.
 

Walter Hay

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This crisis has definitely woken me up in terms of learning and educating myself for sure. I was kinda just coasting along before this, browsing the forum a few times a day and then just plod on with my comfortable life. I now know what genuine risk and what the lack of stability feel like with this pandemic and the idea of just coasting and plodding along with life now just makes my skin crawl. Im going to make the absolute most of this isolation and extremely excited to forge ahead. The time is now.
That great! I hope it's not too long before we see your progress thread outlining what this enforced isolation did for you.

Walter
 

Walter Hay

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In my opinion, this thread needs to have daily posts as opposed to the other C0VlD-19 thread that got out hand real quick.

Anyways, @Walter Hay what are your thoughts on domestic manufacturing booming during & after this outbreak tames down? For example, I'm in Canada and I'm sure you heard of the 3M situation with face masks, we're so dependent on the USA for medical supplies. If you were an entrepreneur in Canada, would you look at this industry closely? Is this a one-off situation? Would you start a manufacturing plant in Canada? For example, Becton Dickinson has a head office in Canada, yet they act as importers in Canada for their own medical devices because they're all manufactured in the USA, Mexico, Spain, etc. Wouldn't it make sense to have a facility in Canada now?

Edit: Just registered the domains canadahospitalsupplies.com & canadahospitalsupplies.ca for the heck of it. Thinking of getting all the necessary regulatory approval and start acting as importer and quickly transition into a manufacturer for basic PPE for hospitals.
I would expect that assuming the lesson has been learned, there will be a resurgence of manufacturing in most all types of medical and hospital supplies and equipment.

I think that registering those domains was a smart move.

Walter
 

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