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Fox

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This is a super interesting read...


I would like to see what the people on here who are state side think of this and any other trends they might see coming.
 
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Andy Black

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This is a super interesting read...


I would like to see what the people on here who are state side think of this and any other trends they might see coming.
I saw something in my Facebook feed a couple of days ago too about youngsters leaving New York (presumably many going back home to some town outside New York).

I “heard” that a lot of the Googlers in Dublin are heading back to their countries. It makes sense if they’re able to work from home till next year and the rent is so high in Dublin.

I get it. If I was still single and living in London and had the opportunity to work from home then I’d have left and gone back up North (in England) to stay with my parents (who I’d also want to be around at this time).
 

Andy Black

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Just read the full article. It’s sad alright.

What stands out is that broadband could well be the reason things don’t go back to the way they were. The ability to hold Zoom meetings and work from home has changed so much.

What also stood out is how many students won’t be going back to college full-time. What direction is education heading in now?
 
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Andy Black

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I know a lot of family members and friends that are really considering moving out of our state or the main city. It just isn’t worth it to them living there. Crazy rent, traffic, terrible homeless and violence situation downtown.

I’m not just an advocate for moving out of the city, I’m a huge advocate for going to different countries. I’ve said it in numerous forum threads. People need to get outside of their city, state, and country. The world is too huge! Don’t just stay in one place your entire life.

For me, I want to figure out how I can start an online business, so that I can earn US money while living in different countries.

If we’re talking about the US only, there seems to be a shift of people leaving the big states like WA, California, NY, and going more into the middle.
 

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During every major crisis, people start talking about the 'new normal.' During the Dot Com Boom, the new normal was that companies didn't need revenue anymore. How long did that last? (about long enough to create the Dot Com Bust). The new normal during the real estate bubble was that real estate was a GREAT! investment. That didn't last all that long, either. I'm sure the roaring twenties had people that were talking about the New Normal, how advanced society and technology had become, making basic human nature a thing of the past.

How many new normals do we need to have before we realize there's no such thing? Calamities come, calamites go. HUMAN NATURE DOESN'T CHANGE. People want to be around other people.

Pendulums do swing, however. But those swings aren't so easy to predict.

My daughter asked me earlier today, 'what do you think the future will be like?' I replied that I had no idea. I said that in the sixties, people thought that by the eighties, flying cars would be ubiquitous, and we'd be well on our way towards colonizing space. Instead, personal computers and then the internet cropped up, changing vast swaths of the economy. Cars remain about the same. Sure, they're quieter, smoother and more fuel efficient, but they still have gasoline engines, 4 tires, and go about the same speed. Someone from the 60s would immediately identify a car of today as a 'car.' They'd probably be very disappointed with how un-futuristic they look. Seems that the laws of physics and human driving capability have more of an impact than we thought. At the same time, they would look at us with puzzled amazement at what we call a phone.

Will NYC be different as a result of this pandemic? Yup. But, no one has even a hint of a clue as to what that change might entail 30 years down the road. The only thing I can guarantee is that Mr. Altucher is wrong. Why? Take a look at everyone who predicted major changes based on the new normals of the past. None of them panned out. They were far too extreme.
 
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Kelvin Fernandez

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I just left the city a few weeks ago now I live in the country side. At first it was kind of boring but now that I'm used to it I like the country side better. I'm less anxious, paranoid, and less stressed out. No traffic and my diet had also improved because the nearest fast food is 20 miles from my house.

The internet has taken the magic of the city away. You no longer need to be in the city to grow as a person or in a field. All the information you need is now online.
 

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If the city dwellers come to the countryside to invade and gentrify my beautiful three street-nothing-but-fields-and woods-not even 100 inhabitants-village...Please God. No.

They'll bring their trendy veganism and tell us not to go hunting or fishing anymore. Guns, in the hands of people! No way. Then, they'll complain that we don't grow soy (because it's an ecological catastrophe, you morons, just like your avocado toast from South America). No more free roaming dogs or cattle, because the helicopter kids still didn't learn how to fly. And of course, they'll want to diversify us folks, because we've been living in ignorance and have to be more cosmopolitan. No, we don't. That's why we don't live in your cities.
 
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Likwid24

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I live in downtown Manhattan, it's not dead at all. Don't believe the hype.

What part of Manhattan are you in? I live in Staten Island and haven't been to Manhattan since April, but according to friends that work in Manhattan, it's a disaster right now. Bums everywhere. Graffiti. Garbage. Stores closed. A ton of restaurants shut down for good. Homeless peeing and shitting on the streets (I have video of this).

This is why my Uncle who lives on the upper east side just bought another home in Florida. He's leaving. Also a group of well over 10,000 moms formed a Facebook group to discuss the filth and where they are moving to next.

This can be the end of NYC as we know it. I'm looking to make a move as well even though Staten Island hasn't been affected. It's only a matter of time.
 

humananalytics

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I live in downtown Manhattan, around the financial district - a few things I've observered:
  1. Rental prices are significantly down in Manhattan. Nowhere close to 50% though, seems like 20-30%
  2. Rental prices are steady for family units in Brooklyn and Queens. Families deeply rooted in NYC are for the most part, staying
  3. Most of my colleagues are actually tired of remote work. For most of us it actually leads to worse WLB
  4. NYC's status as a financial hub is not arbitrary, most financial transactions are routed through NYC for international trade.
  5. Dirt, filth, and homelessness seem to be up. Where I live, I'm largely unaffected, but when I venture uptown it does seem worse than I remember
  6. When I do go on the subway very occasionally, there are still a decent number of people. Definitely less, but far from a ghost town
  7. One of my friends owned a successful restaurant, he's closing it down, and his second one is at risk. According to him, many more restaurants are headed to towards closing
That being said I have no idea if it will bounce back or not. One interesting phenomenon we may see, is that rental prices in NYC decrease, which will actually attract a decent number of people to stay or come back. If NYC becomes priced close to a Tier 2 city, it becomes a pretty good deal.
 

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I get it. If I was still single and living in London and had the opportunity to work from home then I’d have left and gone back up North (in England) to stay with my parents (who I’d also want to be around at this time).

I know this thread is about the States, but I'd just thought I'd drop in my London observations.

Over the past few months, lots of people - myself included - have visited their parents or friends outside of London - for a holiday, to work from there for a bit, because they have no work for a bit (mainly actors, models, & events industry people in my group), but I'm struggling to think of anyone I know who's planning to permanently move away (that wasn't already for other reasons). That includes families & people of various ages.

I've been into Central a few times for work, & whilst things are certainly quieter, & it remains to be seen how much ultimately re-opens, it's definitely not a ghost town, & I've not seen boards everywhere like that Manhattan video, just the odd one.

The offices may tell a different story - I rarely worked in one beforehand anyway. But one company I work for is actually considering getting an office in the coming months - for cheap.

The general vibe I'm getting is that people are largely expecting a return to what was - eventually - but probably having lost some restaurants, shops, theatres, etc. along the way. How long that takes, & whether it ever truly materialises is another matter. But no one I know is really altering their plans because of that yet.
 
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Mutant

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jwhanke

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I was/am thinking about moving to NYC in the next couple of years, especially if rents keep decreasing. :)Based on the data I've seen, families are moving out, but it still is attractive to younger professionals.
 
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PeterBoss

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I know this thread is about the States, but I'd just thought I'd drop in my London observations.

Over the past few months, lots of people - myself included - have visited their parents or friends outside of London - for a holiday, to work from there for a bit, because they have no work for a bit (mainly actors, models, & events industry people in my group), but I'm struggling to think of anyone I know who's planning to permanently move away (that wasn't already for other reasons). That includes families & people of various ages.

I've been into Central a few times for work, & whilst things are certainly quieter, & it remains to be seen how much ultimately re-opens, it's definitely not a ghost town, & I've not seen boards everywhere like that Manhattan video, just the odd one.

The offices may tell a different story - I rarely worked in one beforehand anyway. But one company I work for is actually considering getting an office in the coming months - for cheap.

The general vibe I'm getting is that people are largely expecting a return to what was - eventually - but probably having lost some restaurants, shops, theatres, etc. along the way. How long that takes, & whether it ever truly materialises is another matter. But no one I know is really altering their plans because of that yet.

In principle, I agree. It seems people do have that expectation. I would assume that has something to do with London and people in general being really 'old school'. Case in point: I used to work from home 2-3 times a week when working on other countries as a software dev. Here in London is almost a rarity, you need to really push for it for them to even agree to 1 day (of course, before all this went down).

I can only speak for myself. I will still live in London, but I am moving further out a bit. My outlook is that one way or another, I'll be doing more remote work than before, even if we go back to some kind of 'normal' (whatever normal means.. I never thought anything about society or commuting in mass to a centralised point is normal when you have internet and at the same time complain about a collapsed transport system :frown:).
Also, since this whole thing started I've noticed a LOT more drunks/homeless people roaming around and I had 2 very unpleasant situations in the last couple of weeks, so I felt somewhat identified with that bit of the article (even if he was talking about NYC).

As an addendum, I know that the expectation of commercial real estate leans toward more flexible/short term contracts and lower square footage from here onwards.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.
 

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My apartment is in Midtown West. Everything is fine here. Restaurants have chairs outside, but in many ways it feels like normal. Not a ghost town at all; if anything, there are more people walking around in the middle of the day, probably because they have been laid off.

If anyone is interested in subletting, I can consider :) feel stupid having extended my lease until next July as now I am stuck in the city without having much to do here. My apartment used to be a very good deal (2400 for NY-style 1-bedroom near Times Sq), but it is still not bad.
 

samuraijack

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What part of Manhattan are you in? I live in Staten Island and haven't been to Manhattan since April, but according to friends that work in Manhattan, it's a disaster right now. Bums everywhere. Graffiti. Garbage. Stores closed. A ton of restaurants shut down for good. Homeless peeing and shitting on the streets (I have video of this).

This is why my Uncle who lives on the upper east side just bought another home in Florida. He's leaving. Also a group of well over 10,000 moms formed a Facebook group to discuss the filth and where they are moving to next.

This can be the end of NYC as we know it. I'm looking to make a move as well even though Staten Island hasn't been affected. It's only a matter of time.

I'm in the east village. Bums, graffiti, garbage, homeless peeing and shitting, what's new? lol.

I guess maybe more of it is spreading to the "affluent" areas and those people are noticing it.

My thought was always that people who live in Manhattan paid a premium because it's where everyone else wanted to be and that created the "city life". If education and work change completely, and people no longer had to be there, sure a lot of people would leave. But I don't think that is happening anytime soon, and not to the amount where most of the residents would be gone. Just my opinion though. I could care less which way it goes.
 

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I talked to someone in Florida today that is looking for a house to buy/rent. She said that the RE market is so hot right now that homes last only 24-48 hours on the market. They're being paid for in cash. People like her, who need a mortgage, have almost no chance of buying something. This is all from people moving out of the city.
 

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I talked to someone in Florida today that is looking for a house to buy/rent. She said that the RE market is so hot right now that homes last only 24-48 hours on the market. They're being paid for in cash. People like her, who need a mortgage, have almost no chance of buying something. This is all from people moving out of the city.

Literally what is happening here since I'm only a few hours north of NYC. An hour south of me in Greene County used to have homes for 125-160K. Now they are being sold for 300K cash. Crazy.
 
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Sid23

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This is a super interesting read...


I would like to see what the people on here who are state side think of this and any other trends they might see coming.

Sounds like almost time to start buying NYC real estate.
 

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I'm curious what effects urban flight will have on the places that these people move to.

Nassim Taleb mentioned how something like a 10% increase in the number of cars could double the time that it takes for people to get where they want to go.

I wonder how some towns and cities might face similar effects with NYC and SF people moving in.
 

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minivanman

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I talked to someone in Florida today that is looking for a house to buy/rent. She said that the RE market is so hot right now that homes last only 24-48 hours on the market. They're being paid for in cash. People like her, who need a mortgage, have almost no chance of buying something. This is all from people moving out of the city.

This is the way it was when we bought this house (Texas). If we would have needed a loan, we would have never of gotten it.
 

Kelvin Fernandez

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Anyone thinking of leaving the city should move to Texas. The fact that's the second largest state in the country makes it easy to find cheap land and in any environment you like.

Why haven't you moved to Texas yet?

Plenty of land for everyone. You might qualified for free land in some counties.

The average price on acre is around $10k an acre and only 40 a minute drive to Dallas/Fort Worth.

Most have lakes or water reservoirs. You can fish all year around because winters are mild. Relaxed or non existent building codes. Build a house however you want. Tiny or huge. Guns everywhere and you can carry them anywhere. Horses and you can dress like a cowboy without looking stupid.

Cheap meat because there's plenty of cattle ranchers. Organic grass fed farms where you pick the animal you want.

Also some of the best satellite internet and it's a growing industry. If you're tech savvy you can make it selling wireless internet. For $100 a month you get 40 MBS of data almost anywhere in Texas.
 

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