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Is a market crash coming? Or massive hyper-inflation?

MJ DeMarco

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We've been talking about a market crash around here for years. It did happen on several occasions only to recover shortly thereafter. I think the market is due for a pull-back, but not something enduring.

I believe there is too much inflationary pressure to keep equity prices low -- cash is trash and is becoming more and more worthless by the day.

$10000 in the bank is becoming more risky than $10000 in Amazon stock.

In 6 months, your $10000 will be worth $9200 and your Amazon stock $11,000.

This keeps equity prices rising.
 

c4n

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It won't happen. Everyday more people are going all in into crypto with Elon Musk leading the charge. In this new age, financial wealth can only go to the moon. There was an article some time back saying that the government and bankers have manipulated the stock market to the point that it's not possible for it to crash like the ones we saw in 10 and 20 years ago. People have been talking about market crash since 2017 due to the 10 year crash theory but I don't see it happening. Maybe the stock markets bend to Elon's Will.

Sounds like we are in the "Mania phase" of the bubble :smile2:
 

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Not to be political here, but, if 90% of the general public loved lockdowns and destroying the economy for covid...

they aren't going to say a god d*** thing about inflation/money printing, so long as your local greasy politician keeps giving out free money, bread and circus.

--
I can't tell if it's a good time to buy assets like another business. Lever up at low rates, inflation hedge against future at least.

Or be liquid and ready to buy same business at 50% discount in 2 years when the world is even more on fire.


And... the general public cheers loudly.
They are just eating it up - loving it all.

It's unreal to watch this unfold.
 
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SebastianSkinner

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Hi All,

Recently I have been doing a lot of reading around historic market crashes, current state of affairs across a myriad of industries and economics in general.

I am interested in discussing with my fellow Fastlaners their views on the state of the economy both nationally and globally and their future predictions of what they see unfolding. I am writing from the perspective of someone based from the UK.

My research to date has highlighted the following:
  1. It is clear that we have been in a bull market for a prolonged period of time since around 2009 onwards that has only seen a temporary dip when the Corona Virus pandemic struck.
  2. Interest rates for borrowing such as mortgages are still at an all time low. This is unprecedented, if there was to be a shift in variables it could drastically effect the vast amount of peoples ability to pay on their current loans and default.
  3. The amount of relief provided in the UK and that is still on going through schemes such as Furlough has seen our national debt at an all time high only rivalled since debt levels from WW2. Additionally, I believe that I read that the US has printed 22% of all the US dollars in circulation in 2020 alone...
  4. The valuation of certain company's such as Tesla are outrageous. Don't get me wrong, Elon is doing amazing things and has interesting projects and technology's in the pipeline but no company's PE Ratio should be 1,232. So in essence the PE Ratio is currently trading at $1,232 per $1 of earning... High right?
  5. Crypto currency's in general a plethora of the coins are still seeing rises linked to a bull market even though some of the technology's behind them are not leading the charge such as Doge Coin.
  6. The property market. In the UK I work for a property developers and it is clear at the moment that the market is beginning to slow. This was artificially stimulated throughout 2021 during the pandemic when the government provided Stamp Duty and Land Tax (SDLT) relief on property purchases up to the value of £500k. For any readers from outside of the UK this can save an individual up to £15k if they were to move or purchase a property. Now that this relief is coming to a close it has resulted in a slow in demand in the market.
These are just a few of my observations but I would be interested to hear other peoples thoughts on this.

In my opinion something has to give at some point... It can't be good times forever. The pandemic's effects I don't believe have still not truly been felt as there should be a spoke in unemployment rates once the Furlough Scheme comes to a close, in the UK anyway. 2022 I think will prove to be an interesting year.

Just my 2 cents.

Best,

S
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Looks like the a lot of the nearly $2,000,000,000,000 in "stimulus" money recently printed is going exactly where everyone thought it would go... into the stock market.

But yea, inflation is under control as the house I considered buying last year went from $2M to $3.5M in less than 12 months while that cool new Ford truck is six figures, as is your Corvette. Oh and my favorite bread (the one not filled with chemicals and preservatives) is close to $7 a loaf. I paid $6+ for a single 2x4 at Home Depot last week (lumber). Inflation? NAWWWWWWWWWWWW....

How do you know the Fed Reserve bankers are lying? Their mouths are moving.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Weak job report, and the market blasts to new record highs as people continue to sell fiat USD. This is why I removed "Millionaire" from my new book's subtitle, by the time it is released, a millionaire will about about as impressive as a new Honda Civic.
 

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We've been talking about a market crash around here for years. It did happen on several occasions only to recover shortly thereafter. I think the market is due for a pull-back, but not something enduring.

I believe there is too much inflationary pressure to keep equity prices low -- cash is trash and is becoming more and more worthless by the day.

$10000 in the bank is becoming more risky than $10000 in Amazon stock.

In 6 months, your $10000 will be worth $9200 and your Amazon stock $11,000.

This keeps equity prices rising.

Bring back the rep system but this time it’s RepCoin hah!
 
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MJ DeMarco

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If you were degreeless, jobless, and almost broke, and tomorrow someone handed you $1M in cash, what would you do?

Start a business that needs equipment to start, for example, a sit down lawnmower starts a landscape business. A scissors lift can start a tree trimming business, etc.
 
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nitrousflame

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Looks like the a lot of the nearly $2,000,000,000,000 in "stimulus" money recently printed is going exactly where everyone thought it would go... into the stock market.

But yea, inflation is under control as the house I considered buying last year went from $2.5M to $4.5M in less than 12 months while that cool new Ford truck is six figures, as is your Corvette. Oh and my favorite bread (the one not filled with chemicals and preservatives) is close to $7 a loaf. I paid $6+ for a single 2x4 at Home Depot last week (lumber). Inflation? NAWWWWWWWWWWWW....

How do you know the Fed Reserve bankers are lying? Their mouths are moving.
View: https://twitter.com/redditinvestors/status/1377326082970554377
 

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:



Which means absolutely nothing.

When government/politicians who make the laws are not subject to their laws, allowing themselves to go bankrupt would be seen as a means to an end to leverage the crisis for more power, and likely a new fiat debt scheme. Simply put, Kings and Queens will allow whatever they want to happen because in the end, they're the ones the hold the puppet strings. People who control the rigged game won't allow themselves to be the losers.

Kinda like arbitrarily releasing and ending all student loan debts simply because you find it prudent to do so.

They'd do the same for themselves.

I'm guessing the end game here is a massive crisis resulting into the emergence of a new fiat while bitcoin would undergo either a ban, or a massive government regulation to take it over - Americans and Canadians!! Introducing, the New Ameridollar! Exchange 1000 of your old dollars, for 1 new Ameridollar! Stores will no longer accept your old USD starting Jan 1, 2023! Convert your dollars now!
As someone who lived a fair share of time in South America, I've seen this happen. I've also seen what 40-50% inflation means.
This is EXACTLY how it goes down. They just scratch a bunch of zeroes from the former currency, call the new one a fancier name and, of course, profit from all the suckers that were holding either the currency or any kind of credit denominated in it.
Which goes again to what we were discussing above: as long as you are able to hold anything different than the devaluated currency, then you'll be a winner. If you had outrageous levels of debt in said currency, you'll also be a winner as you will be able to pay it back at a heavy discount.
For eg. If you had 1000 sh*t coins at 1 USD, you now have 1M Ameridollars and if you had a debt for 1000 USD, you now only owe 1 Ameridollar, which should be relatively easy to pay with your sh*t coins.
You'll also be able to buy A LOT of defaulted assets from people, as not all debt is denominated in the now defunct currency and not all interest rates are fixed (specially inflation adjusted loans will be FUBAR).

Having said all of the above, inflation at the beginning always boosts the financial markets, as people try to park their money anywhere other than their wallets. Eventually it hurts companies, as there is no real growth and they start 'underperforming' expectations.

Guess we'll have to wait and see. As the saying goes: markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
 

MJ DeMarco

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So, is there a safe place to store a bunch of cash?

I'm looking to dump cash into a large property that I can deem my primary residence, not as an investment, but merely as an insurance policy. If I get caught buying at the top, I don't mind losing a few million since it will be home I plan to live in for the rest of my life.

Unfortunately, here's just a little insight into how CRAZY the RE market is.

Saw a house in SLC that came up for sale. Mind you, it was listed for $4.8M and these higher price ranges (at least in the past) tend to stay on the market for a few weeks. It was a bit out of my budget but I'm chomping at the bit to unwind cash so I decided I would go look at it. Before I could even book a flight and get more details on it, it went Under Contract.

Even in these high prices ranges, houses are flying off the market. Bidding wars are not happening just at the $500K level, it is now transpiring in the mid-7 figure range.

In similar vain, I saw houses that didn't sell two years ago listed @ $2M now being relisted at $3.5M. Why not? If you can make $1.5M doing nothing in two years, can you blame them? But inflation is well contained.
 

MJ DeMarco

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

Of course, they'd be bankrupting themselves as well...

Which means absolutely nothing.

When government/politicians who make the laws are not subject to their laws, allowing themselves to go bankrupt would be seen as a means to an end to leverage the crisis for more power, and likely a new fiat debt scheme. Simply put, Kings and Queens will allow whatever they want to happen because in the end, they're the ones the hold the puppet strings. People who control the rigged game won't allow themselves to be the losers.

Kinda like arbitrarily releasing and ending all student loan debts simply because you find it prudent to do so.

They'd do the same for themselves.

I'm guessing the end game here is a massive crisis resulting into the emergence of a new fiat while bitcoin would undergo either a ban, or a massive government regulation to take it over - Americans and Canadians!! Introducing, the New Ameridollar! Exchange 1000 of your old dollars, for 1 new Ameridollar! Stores will no longer accept your old USD starting Jan 1, 2023! Convert your dollars now!
 

MJ DeMarco

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just made a bet on real estate in Vegas. I bought a custom home new construction which will be done in March 2021.

Good bet.

I did that during the last housing boom, by the time the house was done it was worth 40K more. Sold it 3 months later.

But I’m worried if the builder can build it at my contracted price.

Yea, I'd be worried about them taking your deposit if they can't fill the contract or go belly up. Someone on the other inflation thread said their builder is trying to renegotiate because prices have gone up.

What's not to like?

The Ameridollar...
The Eurodollar
The Asiadollar

3 currencies, 1 world order and a fresh start with no sovereign debt, but plenty of consumer debt to keep the scam alive. Sounds pretty cool eh? The Uniform Currency and Stabilization Act of 2022 will be chocked full of all kind of goodies!! Kinda like how "The Affordable Care Act" turned my health insurance payment into the equivalent of a mortgage.

Of course I'm speculating wildly as the dramatic writer in me is coming out, but nothing surprises me any longer, now I just have fun speculating on what ridiculousness they'll do next.
 
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Screen Shot 2021-05-10 at 6.10.21 PM.png

From the BabylonBee.com (satire)...

Don't mean this to be political - all our politicians are approximately this smart.
 
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Screenshot_20210720-121524.png


:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
 

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As long as we follow Keynesian Economics, a major market crash is coming.

A bigger question imo is what are you going to do about it?
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Technically we've already had a market crash in early 2020 because of Covid.

Question is, is a "market crash" a crash only if a 2-5 year recession/depression follows?

Or is a crash a crash when it recovers mere months later?

Because right now we're talking apples to oranges.
 

Timmy C

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But would they?

What might they do after this in this crazy scenario? There are things they could do... and all of them would be quite bad for you and I, as owners of assets.

Seizures, nationalizations, government-owned land and leases instead of private property..

totally crazy speculation of course. Hopefully it’s a ridiculous thought or concern.

I think most people would fight tooth and nail against that (myself included), so hopefully won’t ever happen!


I think you underestimate how much of a sheep people are.

You would like to think you will fight tooth and nail, but human nature suggests at least 90% plus will do as they are told.

The statistical probability is that if you where in Germany you would have sided with the nazis as well.
 

MJ DeMarco

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I wonder what would happen to debts and mortgages in this scenario?

The soverign debts disappear, your debts do not -- they would officially convert to the new currency, as per the new laws adopted by your Dear Leaders in the The Uniform Currency and Stabilization Act of 2022.
 
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Bankers pretty much own our media, government and academia. If you looked at everything around you through this paradigm then things will begin to make sense.

Gee you can create money out of nothing? Loan me some of that by buying my bonds so we can start a cable news network. Or loan it to academia or the government.

No surprise these entities lie about inflation and push socialism and lie about college degrees. Think about it.

Biggest mistake of all human history to let these douchebags print and control money like that. We can’t let these corrupt lying bankers and politicians continue doing this.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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What we're seeing with real estate values is purely a supply issue...

IMO, that's a big contributor (as well as low interest rates) but not the driving factor.

Labor and material costs are through the roof. I'm trying to build a custom home in Sedona (all while trying to buy RE out-of-state - what a shitshow) and the price to build have gone up nearly 400,000 since we started the project. My floor plan hasn't changed in those 10 months. So to your point, not only is the supply short in existing inventory, but supply is short all through the material supply chain, including the labor.

Talking about inflation... Im in Idaho, probably the gnarliest housing market in the country.

I almost bought this POS warehouse for 3M last year, owner got called feet... Sold it 1 day on market this past week for 4M... 3m was absolutely batshit

The house I bought last March for 230 I could sell tomorrow for 530.

Houses go 50-100k over asking with 10+ offers within the first week here. Im not exaggerating.

Own assets.... businesses, crypto, real estate, stocks. Cash is literally 50% more worthless than it was a year ago

Yikes.

But the Federal Reserve disagrees with you!
As does all those articles on CNBC!

Why do you believe the data that's right in front of your eyes? Don't you know thinking for yourself is dangerous?

Just because a 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%. LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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So what are members opinions of how and when this will likely go down? Or possible triggers or "bells" to watch out for.

Some potential impetuses...

  • The USD is removed as the reserve currency.
  • When the Capital Gains Tax is raised, expect a huge market sell off before the new taxes become effective. If that happens, I'm selling everything to lock in the lower rates. The sell off cascades into the larger systemic problems relating to lower capital investment, lower innovation, and other things relating to having 50% of any successful investment you make stolen from you.
 

theSandmanAT

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I'm new around here, but I'll still post my 2 (euro)cents :D

The US stock markets have been in a bullish phase for a while now (since the low in 2009).
The Interest rates have risen in March and some people expect the money to move from the stock market into government paper. This might happen on a local level, leading to a drop in price, but international players might use this oportunity to buy blue chip stocks in the US and park their money. Although the economy in the US doesn't look great, the situation here in Europe and other parts of the world is even worse, so parking the money in US equities can be very tempting.
Another factor to consider is the trust in governments worldwide, which keeps sinking every day/week/month. There is talk about turning government bonds into perpetual bonds overnight, thus solving the massive problem the low interest policy has created in Europe or Japan. This could also send the capital to equities.

I, too, consider the share market to be overvalued right now, due to several reasons:
  • ETF's following the S&P500 and other indexes drive some share prices artificially
  • there's hardly any entry barrier to the share markets (or crypto exchanges) right now
  • people have more time on their hands due to the lockdowns
  • people need extra sources of income (also due to the lockdowns)
  • companies like Tesla are WAY overvalued (like someone already wrote here) in respect to their earnings and the trend seems to be towards speculating on the share markets (buying shares with the intent to sell at a better price) rather than investing in the share markets (buying shares and expecting to receive dividends)
but if the big money has no other choice for parking the capital, we could expect another "roaring 20's" :D
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Property won't crash in Australia.

People have said this for 10 plus years.

Governments have basically made it illegal for property to crash.

They will do anything and everything to prevent that from happening.
That's also a problem.

The US Federal Reserve already has massive power over the US (and thus, the world) economy. Recently they have started buying corporate debt (buying bonds).

That means in a worst case scenario, they would be the creditor for those companies...

Governments are manipulating economies in new and bizarre ways, and where it leads is yet to be seen because it hasn't happened yet...

Here is the (heavily PC and spun up / biased) summary: The Fed starts buying corporate bonds

Good article on what happens to bondholders when a company goes under: What Happens to Bondholders When a Company Goes Bankrupt?

Think about it. Connect the dots. I don't like what I see.

edit: also, "people have said this for 10 plus years" - uh yeah, 2008 was only 13 years ago
 
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He always has good insight!

I appreciate the comment but I actually have no idea.

I just try to ask myself simple questions while im trying to figure out what is happening "beyond" our senses and a computer monitor.

What assumptions is the market making? Can I see what they are seeing then see something they can't?

Can low rates really drive growth? Are we really growing economically? Why havent wages budged but the cost of living has? Is all this money really driving productivity and innovation?
 
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Property won't crash in Australia.

People have said this for 10 plus years.

Governments have basically made it illegal for property to crash.

They will do anything and everything to prevent that from happening.

That just makes it crash all the harder once or twice a generation.
 

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Is today the start of something? Or just a minor correction?
I am still betting melt up conditions.

The markets are the path of least resistance for buying something of value while we maintain easy money and inflationary central banking policies.

Having the value of something with actual productivity behind it crash, when our means of exchange is being plundered, I’m not betting on it. When they all sell, they are essentially buying dollars. Why buy dollars?

Rotation, sure, but from what into what?


This chart considers buying power return, not dollar over dollar return, so it’s better IMO.

Now, this was a 10 year period… 73% gains in energy stocks is not much. Growing buying power is pretty tough with inflation, but it can be done.

Funny thing, I just started my son’s trust fund. I bought a shit load of OKE and BABA for him. I’ll probably never sell anything I buy for him, just leave it all unrealized for 20 years.
 
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Timmy C

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Guest-5ty5s4

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Interesting how most in this thread largely ignore gold as a solution
it's a nice hedge to make sure you own something when the world burns, but it doesn't pay the bills in the meantime.

I would still recommend owning some though, if you have any net worth at all.

...unfortunately all of mine was lost in a boating accident ;)
 
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