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NOTABLE! I'm a Doctor Who Has C0VlD-19. AMA

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rollerskates

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TL;DR

No (none, nada, zilch, zippo) transmission from kids to others, verified by DNA sequencing of the virus that each child/adult was infected with.

I don't understand why they won't reopen schools but the ACTUAL SCIENCE based on other countries' having reopened schools indicates that it would not be dangerous. Is it politics, Karenism run amok, or ????? Everyone's freaking out, but no one's looking at numbers. It's probably different numbers across the US, but there is a big chunk of students who simply dropped out last March with no school contact, and no further school work. This will only get worse the longer schools are closed. I'm not sure why no one is looking down the road at the larger societal problems that will result. Whether most kids are learning anything of value in school is another thread, but for a lot of kids, it's the only place they have structure and especially help for the special needs ones, and .... I could go on and on and I don't even have children!

Maybe next spring? Honestly, it's going to take time and in my opinion is going to become endemic and something that we deal with for years to come.

Now, this is scary. We've already been living like this for months and I don't think it's sustainable.

And thanks, @Iwokeup for starting this thread! I've had some friends and relatives contract Covid and it's kind of scary what they're going through.

Questions: Will masks ever be done away with? Will HCQ ever gain acceptance and would it have saved lives if used? Are test counts accurate and how are we to believe ANYTHING we are told? And this last question is because of that lab in Florida that was churning out 100% positives and Texas taking a bunch of cases off the books. I don't know what to believe anymore.
 
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GIlman

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I don't understand why they won't reopen schools but the ACTUAL SCIENCE based on other countries' having reopened schools indicates that it would not be dangerous. Is it politics, Karenism run amok, or ????? Everyone's freaking out, but no one's looking at numbers. It's probably different numbers across the US, but there is a big chunk of students who simply dropped out last March with no school contact, and no further school work. This will only get worse the longer schools are closed. I'm not sure why no one is looking down the road at the larger societal problems that will result. Whether most kids are learning anything of value in school is another thread, but for a lot of kids, it's the only place they have structure and especially help for the special needs ones, and .... I could go on and on and I don't even have children!



Now, this is scary. We've already been living like this for months and I don't think it's sustainable.

And thanks, @Iwokeup for starting this thread! I've had some friends and relatives contract Covid and it's kind of scary what they're going through.

Questions: Will masks ever be done away with? Will HCQ ever gain acceptance and would it have saved lives if used? Are test counts accurate and how are we to believe ANYTHING we are told? And this last question is because of that lab in Florida that was churning out 100% positives and Texas taking a bunch of cases off the books. I don't know what to believe anymore.

The prevailing problem is that at this point there is a lot of conflicting science. That IS the nature of science though. It takes years and even decades for science to sort out most things. Actually science is never settled, even things that people think are settled change. For example look at the changing views of eating eggs over the years, are they going to kill you or are they the best nutrition on earth?

Secondly, because the science at this point is very murky and conflicting, there are no true experts on covid. There are infectious disease experts, but not specifically on covid.

Third, we are all making decisions based on real-time data. I can think of no other time in my career where medical recommendations were made based on real-time data. This is very prone to error, good science is based on studies where others validate the findings, and some researchers try to disprove the data and theories. This process of challenge and validation of studies is what results in reasonable confidence. Right now we do not have this and so we have no ability to establish any confidence in our studies.

There are so many things that make no sense with covid, someday we will be able to make sense of it, but right now we look at an outcome and imply a cause. This is a very very terrible way to derive any knowledge. For instance if you look at death rates per infection, they are considerably worse in many many states with extensive lockdowns compared to most of the states that did not. Florida’s death rate is actually way down the list. Why? No one can honesty tell you. They can only guess and project, which is not science, it is a guess.

The point of all this, there are NO answers, NO one really knows what’s going on. We see outcomes, and react...Fauci and other federal health experts have changed and continue to change their public opinions. Because they do not know!!!!

Those that have followed what I have been saying have seen changes in my opinions and analysis over time. I have the same problems trying to sort out data real time. The only thing I do know, is that covid IS less deadly by over an order of magnitude compared to what we initially thought. We do know that the impact is less than we thought. We have never run out of ventilators to date. So from this my mode of risk has changed dramatically.

All I follow now days is deaths. Yes it is a lagging metric, but it tells us impact. And does anything except impact really matter. The number of daily deaths has drastically decreased and at the moment mostly hit steady state. So this is not as scary as we initially thought: yes - some people get horribly sick, and - yes -some unlucky people die. But that is the risk of living, there are an infinite number of things trying to kill us everyday. All of life IS risk.
 
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csalvato

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The prevailing problem is that at this point there is a lot of conflicting science. That IS the nature of science though. It takes years and even decades for science to sort out most things. Actually science is never settled, even things that people think are settled change. For example look at the changing views of eating eggs over the years, are they going to kill you or are they the best nutrition on earth?

Secondly, because the science at this point is very murky and conflicting, there are no true experts on covid. There are infectious disease experts, but not specifically on covid.

Third, we are all making decisions based on real-time data. I can think of no other time in my career where medical recommendations were made based on real-time data. This is very prone to error, good science is based on studies where others validate the findings, and some researchers try to disprove the data and theories. This process of challenge and validation of studies is what results in reasonable confidence. Right now we do not have this and so we have no ability to establish any confidence in our studies.

There are so many things that make no sense with covid, someday we will be able to make sense of it, but right now we look at an outcome and imply a cause. This is a very very terrible way to derive any knowledge. For instance if you look at death rates per infection, they are considerably worse in many many states with extensive lockdowns compared to most of the states that did not. Florida’s death rate is actually way down the list. Why? No one can honesty tell you. They can only guess and project, which is not science, it is a guess.

The point of all this, there are NO answers, NO one really knows what’s going on. We see outcomes, and react...Fauci and other federal health experts have changed and continue to change their public opinions. Because they do not know!!!!

Those that have followed what I have been saying have seen changes in my opinions and analysis over time. I have the same problems trying to sort out data real time. The only thing I do know, is that covid IS less deadly by over an order of magnitude compared to what we initially thought. We do know that the impact is less than we thought. We have never run out of ventilators to date. So from this my mode of risk has changed dramatically.

All I follow now days is deaths. Yes it is a lagging metric, but it tells us impact. And does anything except impact really matter. The number of daily deaths has drastically decreased and at the moment mostly hit steady state. So this is not as scary as we initially thought: yes - some people get horribly sick, and - yes -some unlucky people die. But that is the risk of living, there are an infinite number of things trying to kill us everyday. All of life IS risk.

@GIlman I’m pretty sure you’re my spirit animal
 

Iwokeup

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The prevailing problem is that at this point there is a lot of conflicting science. That IS the nature of science though. It takes years and even decades for science to sort out most things. Actually science is never settled, even things that people think are settled change. For example look at the changing views of eating eggs over the years, are they going to kill you or are they the best nutrition on earth?

Secondly, because the science at this point is very murky and conflicting, there are no true experts on covid. There are infectious disease experts, but not specifically on covid.

Third, we are all making decisions based on real-time data. I can think of no other time in my career where medical recommendations were made based on real-time data. This is very prone to error, good science is based on studies where others validate the findings, and some researchers try to disprove the data and theories. This process of challenge and validation of studies is what results in reasonable confidence. Right now we do not have this and so we have no ability to establish any confidence in our studies.

There are so many things that make no sense with covid, someday we will be able to make sense of it, but right now we look at an outcome and imply a cause. This is a very very terrible way to derive any knowledge. For instance if you look at death rates per infection, they are considerably worse in many many states with extensive lockdowns compared to most of the states that did not. Florida’s death rate is actually way down the list. Why? No one can honesty tell you. They can only guess and project, which is not science, it is a guess.

The point of all this, there are NO answers, NO one really knows what’s going on. We see outcomes, and react...Fauci and other federal health experts have changed and continue to change their public opinions. Because they do not know!!!!

Those that have followed what I have been saying have seen changes in my opinions and analysis over time. I have the same problems trying to sort out data real time. The only thing I do know, is that covid IS less deadly by over an order of magnitude compared to what we initially thought. We do know that the impact is less than we thought. We have never run out of ventilators to date. So from this my mode of risk has changed dramatically.

All I follow now days is deaths. Yes it is a lagging metric, but it tells us impact. And does anything except impact really matter. The number of daily deaths has drastically decreased and at the moment mostly hit steady state. So this is not as scary as we initially thought: yes - some people get horribly sick, and - yes -some unlucky people die. But that is the risk of living, there are an infinite number of things trying to kill us everyday. All of life IS risk.
Couple of thoughts.

1. I do think that tracking deaths is probably the only valid metric at this point.

2. Agreed with the lack of experts on COVID. Because of this, I have a very hard time with claims of appeal to authority. This illness has many unique features that we haven't seen on a widespread basis before (such as the tendency to increased thrombosis in what is essentially a lower respiratory illness).

3. I think that, like all new or sui generis events, we start out with wildly separated brackets and over time are able to narrow down what is "true" vs what is "untrue." Eventually we'll figure out the "best set of ideas" that will inform our understanding of the illness going forward.

4. This illness has crushed the critical thinking skills of thousands of doctors and scientists.

@GIlman, you and I both know that scientists and doctors are humans with all of the inherent human biases. You and I also know that the amount of true rigor in the sciences has been falling off of a cliff over the past two decades (witness the staggering amount of research that cannot be replicated by other labs or groups despite having access to clear cut materials and methods).

Against this background, you have doctors/scientists who are "Get DRUMPF!!" or "Don't believe Libtards!111" ignoring data that stares them right in the face because it goes against their preferred narrative. SO disheartening. In the private Physician FB groups, the amount of flaming and rigidity of thought is staggering.

5. My thinking on this illness has also radically changed. Here's the timeline from a guy who's personal and family motto is "Panic Never Solves Anything":
  • We're all going to die, especially me when working in the ER.
  • Okay, maybe it's not that bad (early in the course of the illness during March time frame, when only NY the Tri-State area were getting slammed.
  • The Death Cult hype is out of control
  • Huge surge in our area: "Oh S!@#@# This illness is really F-d up. But I probably won't die or stroke out if I get it."
  • I got the illness (Best time to be a radiologist EVER, amirite?) and it really sucked. That said, for the vast majority of people who get it, it's a minor-medium issue at best.
 
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Iwokeup

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I don't understand why they won't reopen schools but the ACTUAL SCIENCE based on other countries' having reopened schools indicates that it would not be dangerous. Is it politics, Karenism run amok, or ????? Everyone's freaking out, but no one's looking at numbers. It's probably different numbers across the US, but there is a big chunk of students who simply dropped out last March with no school contact, and no further school work. This will only get worse the longer schools are closed. I'm not sure why no one is looking down the road at the larger societal problems that will result. Whether most kids are learning anything of value in school is another thread, but for a lot of kids, it's the only place they have structure and especially help for the special needs ones, and .... I could go on and on and I don't even have children!
You're right. We're fighting emotions and the need to belong to the "in group" fighting against the "enemy," or the "out group" who advocate for opening schools. There's lots of fear and logic almost never prevails in those situations.

Also, in my probably unpopular opinion: This is the reaction that you get when a society favors feminine-centric emotionalism as the only basis for persuasion and devalues traditionally male logic-centered reason. (Caveat that OF COURSE all humans are subject to emotional persuasion and panic. It's just that that approach almost always leads to disaster).


Questions: Will masks ever be done away with? Will HCQ ever gain acceptance and would it have saved lives if used? Are test counts accurate and how are we to believe ANYTHING we are told? And this last question is because of that lab in Florida that was churning out 100% positives and Texas taking a bunch of cases off the books. I don't know what to believe anymore.
  • Masks: Not for a while.
  • HCQ: Probably 10 yrs from now, people will say, "Duh. It worked. Why couldn't we see it?"
    • BTW, this is the same reaction that many of us had to the Patriot Act. Don't you sheep/npcs see that giving the government unlimited power to surveil you in the name of "Safety" will eventually lead to tyranny?
      • NPCs then: "Stop with the tinfoil dude." Or "That will never happen." Or "What have you got to hide?"
      • NPCs now: "The government watches everything I do? Whaaaaaaa??????!!"
    • Of course, I could be wrong about HCQ. I reserve the right to be convinced otherwise.
  • Testing: likely a combination of politics (everything is politicized now) plus some sort of financial incentives.
 
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@Iwokeup agreed on hydroxychloroquine, all evidence I have seen is that it works if administered early. Not a shocker since Oseltamivir also must be administered early for influenza.

These drugs are about preventing viral entry into more cells. Once the cat is too far out of the bag it’s a done deal and these meds are useless. The studies touted as proof HCQ does not work always looked at giving it to intubated and already very sick patients, which made no sense from a mechanism standpoint.
 

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@Iwokeup agreed on hydroxychloroquine, all evidence I have seen is that it works if administered early. Not a shocker since Oseltamivir also must be administered early for influenza.

These drugs are about preventing viral entry into more cells. Once the cat is too far out of the bag it’s a done deal and these meds are useless. The studies touted as proof HCQ does not work always looked at giving it to intubated and already very sick patients, which made no sense from a mechanism standpoint.
Agreed
 

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If most people recover anyways, is it even possible to determine if HCQ or any early treatment is helpful?
 

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Also, in my probably unpopular opinion: This is the reaction that you get when a society favors feminine-centric emotionalism as the only basis for persuasion and devalues traditionally male logic-centered reason. (Caveat that OF COURSE all humans are subject to emotional persuasion and panic. It's just that that approach almost always leads to disaster).

I'm a girl and I agree. :rofl: Seriously, though, I had a really good education, and years of critical thinking and learning to reason and having to defend my conclusions through logic, not tears.

4. This illness has crushed the critical thinking skills of thousands of doctors and scientists.

Agreed. But it can be scary, even to the people who know things. It seems like you won't know how it will affect you until you get it. And according to the friend and relatives who have had it with varying degrees of scariness, it can be scary.
 

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If most people recover anyways, is it even possible to determine if HCQ or any early treatment is helpful?
It seems to prevent progression to worse illness in those most likely to have bad outcomes. Henry Ford study which I think I referenced above
 

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How many pairs of underwear do you own?

And what colors?
 
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Statistics are skewed depending on the narrative being pushed. This sadly seems like the the state of "studies" these days. You basically have to trust the funding source of these studies isn't paying for the results they publish. In a perfect world, all studies are done for the facts, but corruption is real.

The total number of US deaths being advertised is in the mid 100,000's. I also heard that total includes deaths where the patient had COVID at the time of death, but it was not caused by COVID. Some weeks ago, a board member of the San Diego county health department(?) said of the 3.3m population, there were ~112 COVID-related deaths on record and only ~6 were CAUSED by COVID.

Then I heard hospitals are paid ~$9k for each COVID case, and paid an additional ~$30k for each COVID patient that requires a ventilator. I saw multiple videos of actual doctors telling stories like this. I also heard if you're put on a ventilator for a long enough period of time, it's hard for the body to breathe on its own again. I'm sure at least some patients were put on ventilators when they didn't need to be, resulting in avoidable deaths.

So how many of the deaths are actually CAUSED by COVID, and how many were avoidable? My guess is less than half.

All of these conflicting studies and narrative pushes forced me into my stance, which is, trust nobody. The only problem is one of the narratives is making my life harder for what seems like no reason. I've seen the suits that virologists have to wear, and a bandana isn't stopping anything. We might as well not "slow the spread" and get it over with so we can get on with our lives.

Sorry, more of a rant than a question. I appreciate your non-politicized feedback on this, and I hope you're doing well.
 

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@Iwokeup I'm struggling to find any legitimate answer to this question online and I'd love to hear your thoughts:
What's the actual risk for myself for Covid?
  • 27yo male, very fit and healthy, no predisposed conditions, rarely gets sick from anything
It's so hard to cut through all the media and news to find out what the ACTUAL risk for me (I stopped watching the news a few weeks ago because of this).

What are my chances of:
  • Death?
  • Getting it and experiencing hell for a few weeks?
  • Having lasting effects like reduced lung capacity or whatever (I heard something about this, not sure if it's true)?
  • Barely noticing I have it?
Should I legitimately be concerned about the effects it could have on my own health and well-being?
Or should I be more concerned about contracting it but passing it onto someone that is more susceptible to more severe effects?
 

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@Iwokeup I'm struggling to find any legitimate answer to this question online and I'd love to hear your thoughts:
What's the actual risk for myself for Covid?
  • 27yo male, very fit and healthy, no predisposed conditions, rarely gets sick from anything
It's so hard to cut through all the media and news to find out what the ACTUAL risk for me (I stopped watching the news a few weeks ago because of this).

What are my chances of:
  • Death?
  • Getting it and experiencing hell for a few weeks?
  • Having lasting effects like reduced lung capacity or whatever (I heard something about this, not sure if it's true)?
  • Barely noticing I have it?
Should I legitimately be concerned about the effects it could have on my own health and well-being?
Or should I be more concerned about contracting it but passing it onto someone that is more susceptible to more severe effects?
I’m not a doctor, however some simple deduction can answer most of your questions.

Look up the data my man. Given your age bracket and health, you have almost zero to worry about dying or becoming severely ill from COVID.

Infecting grandma is a different story. Although her health, age, and what seems like circumstance is what creates her risk profile. She may fare very well. I had a 92 year old great aunt who survived COVID with barely a sniffle, only to succumb to a UTI a couple weeks ago. Anecdotal yes, but it just goes to show you that this virus isn’t a death sentence.

Most of us visit grandparents during flu season, so long as we aren’t sick. The data seems to show, at this point, that asymptomatic people do not spread the virus. Whether you visit grandma or not is entirely up to how much risk each of you can accept.

You won’t kill an old lady because you walked past her on the sidewalk without a mask on.
 

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on face masks: I thought that the point of wearing a mask wasn't to prevent the wearer from getting Covid, but to catch some of the particles they exhale, in case they have covid themselves. This, so they say, reduces the chance of spreading the virus to people in their vicinity. I also thought there were studies that showed this was effective in the case of this virus. (The theory being that if you reduce, even by a little bit, the how many people an infected person infects, you can greatly reduce the overall spread of the disease) No?

The situation in Japan (an obedient mask-wearing society) shows how useful the masks are:


We're talking about a country that just two weeks ago was lauded for their habits (for example here: Is the Secret to Japan’s Virus Success Right in Front of Its Face?).

Yet it seems like the masks did nothing to prevent a second wave. Obviously there are other factors but nonetheless a society known for obedience, mask-wearing, keeping distance, etc. didn't avoid a second wave.
 

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The situation in Japan (an obedient mask-wearing society) shows how useful the masks are:


We're talking about a country that just two weeks ago was lauded for their habits (for example here: Is the Secret to Japan’s Virus Success Right in Front of Its Face?).

Yet it seems like the masks did nothing to prevent a second wave. Obviously there are other factors but nonetheless a society known for obedience, mask-wearing, keeping distance, etc. didn't avoid a second wave.
That link gives weight to my point. Look at their totals...a couple orders of magnitude less than ours.

Mask wearing makes logical sense to me - not as a protection for the wearer, but to reduce the transmission rate. Reduce that rate enough, and the disease becomes a trivial issue for the country.

From what I've read:
  • C0VlD-19 behaves differently from other viruses and is often transmitted through the air, not in small particles, but larger droplets.
  • whether or not you get sick depends on how many virus particles you ingest.
  • Home made masks dramatically reduce the number of droplets, and the distance they travel. A recent study I saw reported on (journal of fluid dynamics, i think) showed images of an artificial sneeze. Without a mask, the particles were numerous, and went 6-8 feet. With a mask, the particles went just inches. The best performing mask was a home-made cotton one.
  • Therefore, mask wearing + keeping your distance is how you stay away from the virus. Wash your hands frequently, and you've now covered your bases
  • Reduce the number of people an infected person infects enough, and we can be like Japan
Where am I wrong?
 

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That link gives weight to my point. Look at their totals...a couple orders of magnitude less than ours.

Mask wearing makes logical sense to me - not as a protection for the wearer, but to reduce the transmission rate. Reduce that rate enough, and the disease becomes a trivial issue for the country.

From what I've read:
  • C0VlD-19 behaves differently from other viruses and is often transmitted through the air, not in small particles, but larger droplets.
  • whether or not you get sick depends on how many virus particles you ingest.
  • Home made masks dramatically reduce the number of droplets, and the distance they travel. A recent study I saw reported on (journal of fluid dynamics, i think) showed images of an artificial sneeze. Without a mask, the particles were numerous, and went 6-8 feet. With a mask, the particles went just inches. The best performing mask was a home-made cotton one.
  • Therefore, mask wearing + keeping your distance is how you stay away from the virus. Wash your hands frequently, and you've now covered your bases
  • Reduce the number of people an infected person infects enough, and we can be like Japan
Where am I wrong?

There is no real evidence masks work. I looked at the research on the CDC site. None of the studies they cite would really indicate they would. There are studies with influenza and mask wearing, that shows no statistical difference between mask and no mask. Covid in many ways is similar to flu.

I use to think masks might be useful, but after watching people wearing masks, it’s apparent that there is a general lack in people understanding hygiene. People are constantly touching their masks, adjusting them up and down, not covering their nose, etc. You don’t see this in health care workers in hospitals, because they receive training on such things.

Also, I can tell you that in a medium sized hospital here in Phoenix they have had 150 employees infected as of last Friday. And they are all wearing masks all day long. And these are people who have received training and experience n using PPE.

Even IF masks are effective in catching and filtering the virus, it just becomes a collector and concentrator of infected spit that people touch and spread all over.

Are masks more helpful or hurtful in spreading covid? The jury is out at this time, but the evidence and observation of mask hygiene behaviors I would say I’m not hopeful that masks do more good than harm.
 
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Mask wearing makes logical sense to me - not as a protection for the wearer, but to reduce the transmission rate. Reduce that rate enough, and the disease becomes a trivial issue for the country.

Yeah I'm not an expert and I'm not here to argue.

I just wanted to point out that mask-wearing didn't prevent a second wave, meaning it probably isn't such a big factor, at least for preventing a second wave. If it was so effective, the numbers would stay low in Japan, wouldn't they?

Also, I wasn't referring to their total infection numbers and death count which is very low, just the fact that the virus somehow came back despite all these measures.

I use to think masks might be useful, but after watching people wearing masks, it’s apparent that there is a general lack in people understanding hygiene. People are constantly touching their masks, adjusting them up and down, not covering their nose, etc.

I touch my face much more often precisely because I have to adjust my mask. Otherwise I wouldn't touch my face at all.
 
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Also, in my probably unpopular opinion: This is the reaction that you get when a society favors feminine-centric emotionalism as the only basis for persuasion and devalues traditionally male logic-centered reason. (Caveat that OF COURSE all humans are subject to emotional persuasion and panic. It's just that that approach almost always leads to disaster).

Agreed.

Do we know more about its origin? Does the story seem to be "a guy that ate a bat", or does it seem to be "who the f*ck didn't close the door of the laboratory this morning?!", if you know what I mean. Don't you think that the level of puzzleness the medical community is being victim of with this virus has something to do with its origin? I know it very much sounds like conspiracist stuff, but it's a genuine question : ) .

Thx for this thread and for your work.
 

BlindSide

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Any thoughts on the fear of taking ibuprofen or other anti-inflammatory medicine if you also are not sure if you have/had COVID?

Significant other is currently dealing with some pain in ribs from something separate, but also lost her sense of taste for a few days (this has already returned), as well as dealing with some fatigue, cold chills one day last week. Doctor she called recommended ibuprofen for the ribs, I'm worried about it making it worse.

Should she avoid anti-inflammatories if possible?
 

Thoelt53

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That link gives weight to my point. Look at their totals...a couple orders of magnitude less than ours.

Mask wearing makes logical sense to me - not as a protection for the wearer, but to reduce the transmission rate. Reduce that rate enough, and the disease becomes a trivial issue for the country.

From what I've read:
  • C0VlD-19 behaves differently from other viruses and is often transmitted through the air, not in small particles, but larger droplets.
  • whether or not you get sick depends on how many virus particles you ingest.
  • Home made masks dramatically reduce the number of droplets, and the distance they travel. A recent study I saw reported on (journal of fluid dynamics, i think) showed images of an artificial sneeze. Without a mask, the particles were numerous, and went 6-8 feet. With a mask, the particles went just inches. The best performing mask was a home-made cotton one.
  • Therefore, mask wearing + keeping your distance is how you stay away from the virus. Wash your hands frequently, and you've now covered your bases
  • Reduce the number of people an infected person infects enough, and we can be like Japan
Where am I wrong?
The difference between US cases and Japanese cases is likely due to the asinine “testing” being done here in the States. We’ve got majorly faulty testing happening, presumed cases, and flat out ‘errors’ (lies?).

There have been reports of people registering to get a COVID test, getting to the testing center and leaving, for whatever reason (long lines, a pressing issue, etc.) only to receive a notification that they have tested positive for COVID. And they were never even tested.
 
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humananalytics

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What are your thoughts on the various successful Asian country's responses to COVID, like South Korea and Taiwan? For these countries, life is almost back to normal. For me, they show how mask wearing, contact tracing, and significant testing do indeed help stop the spread of infection.

It seems to me, the issue in the US, is a non-unified response.

Either choose:

1) Achieve Herd Immunity like Sweden
2) Take aggressive preemptive action, so COVID won't take hold

The US has taken basically a half measure of both, and gotten the worst of both (high number of cases/deaths + significant economic damage)
 

Thoelt53

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What are your thoughts on the various successful Asian country's responses to COVID, like South Korea and Taiwan? For these countries, life is almost back to normal. For me, they show how mask wearing, contact tracing, and significant testing do indeed help stop the spread of infection.

It seems to me, the issue in the US, is a non-unified response.

Either choose:

1) Achieve Herd Immunity like Sweden
2) Take aggressive preemptive action, so COVID won't take hold

The US has taken basically a half measure of both, and gotten the worst of both (high number of cases/deaths + significant economic damage)
Asian countries aren't completely fabricating their numbers. That is why they 'appear' to be better off than the US. I say 'appear' in quotes because they are no better off than the US, or you may consider the US is no worse off than them, unless you read flawed, bullshit data.

We could be back to normal here in the US, but too many idiots are guzzling propaganda faster than they can drink a beer. Oh, but they are collecting +$600/week and guzzling beer whilst swallowing the kool-aid to further compound the stupidity.

Almost half of the COVID deaths in the US are due to governor mandate to send recovering COVID patients back to nursing homes. Lunacy.
 

NMdad

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What @Vigilante said.

Also there's this:

View attachment 34065

TL;DR

No (none, nada, zilch, zippo) transmission from kids to others, verified by DNA sequencing of the virus that each child/adult was infected with.
Unless I missed it, that article has no info on transmissibility of COVID by children (full article here). Current research suggests that younger children transmit COVID at lower rates than adults, but that older children & adolescents have transmission rates similar to adults:
That said, we have little to no info on the longer-term effects of the virus--for children, adolescents, and adults who acquire it; the range of possibility is wide (from none to severe), and will take years to uncover.

If this was Ebola--about which more is known and the mortality rate is much higher--it'd be easier to make decisions about quarantines, masks, schools, workplaces, gatherings, etc. But with so much uncertainty, emerging data, and politicization, most people fall back to simplistic gut opinions, mental heuristics, & cognitive biases.
 

garyfritz

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How accurate are the finger tip pulse oximeters? Are you tested using a different kind? I have one and I regularly get 90-92 on it. I am living at 9500 ft elevation though. When I take a bunch of really deep breaths I can get it to 96 maybe.
I also picked one up. At the doc's office (I have cancer so I go regularly) I always read 97-99, and that's at 5000' altitude. Got my new fingertip reader and it's always reading 88-92 or so. WTF!? Is it defective? So today I had a doc appt and took my meter. Doc's oximeter said I was 98-99, mine said... 98. Hm.

Then I came home, popped it on my finger again, and ... 89.

Again, WTF? Do I have low oxygen in my house!??
 

JustinY

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With all the questions about what deaths are or are not Covid, I feel like the best measure to gauge whether we have Coronavirus under control is the measure of how many deaths a place had this year versus previous years.

For example New York had 14,000 more deaths in a 30 day period from mid March to mid April, 8,000 were considered Covid-related. That's with people in quarantine, working from home, etc. so I feel like that's a low estimate if anything.

Then you hear about the refrigerated trailer morgues that they are requesting in Texas and Arizona, and I wonder how many more people have died than normal for them to need portable morgues?

I don't really get the push back behind masks. Working in manufacturing, my previous company supplied 3 disposable masks per person per day so people can throw them away every 4-6 hours. Along with a sanitization hour every 12 hours for all work areas.
One hour of downtime on the machine is $1000+.
For every positive case the whole team has to quarantine for several days, outside company has to come and do a deep sanitization, and you're talking tens of thousands of dollars in lost production per day.
So yeah, masks are mandatory and even if there is a chance they are effective then it's better than the alternative.

It also blows my mind that they are lobbying for companies to have no liability if their employees get Covid from lack of adequate protection. At the end of the day everyone's life has a dollar amount (just look at your life insurance premium to find yours). I get that at a macro level, but on a personal level, I want to live and I don't want Covid (more for any unknown long term potential side effects).

I'm happy to see cashiers behind plexiglass, wearing masks, and sanitizing the pay station after every use. It might only lower my chances of getting Covid by 1%, but I'll take it over the company not doing anything to protect me.
 

Thoelt53

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With all the questions about what deaths are or are not Covid, I feel like the best measure to gauge whether we have Coronavirus under control is the measure of how many deaths a place had this year versus previous years.

For example New York had 14,000 more deaths in a 30 day period from mid March to mid April, 8,000 were considered Covid-related. That's with people in quarantine, working from home, etc. so I feel like that's a low estimate if anything.

Then you hear about the refrigerated trailer morgues that they are requesting in Texas and Arizona, and I wonder how many more people have died than normal for them to need portable morgues?

I don't really get the push back behind masks. Working in manufacturing, my previous company supplied 3 disposable masks per person per day so people can throw them away every 4-6 hours. Along with a sanitization hour every 12 hours for all work areas.
One hour of downtime on the machine is $1000+.
For every positive case the whole team has to quarantine for several days, outside company has to come and do a deep sanitization, and you're talking tens of thousands of dollars in lost production per day.
So yeah, masks are mandatory and even if there is a chance they are effective then it's better than the alternative.

It also blows my mind that they are lobbying for companies to have no liability if their employees get Covid from lack of adequate protection. At the end of the day everyone's life has a dollar amount (just look at your life insurance premium to find yours). I get that at a macro level, but on a personal level, I want to live and I don't want Covid (more for any unknown long term potential side effects).

I'm happy to see cashiers behind plexiglass, wearing masks, and sanitizing the pay station after every use. It might only lower my chances of getting Covid by 1%, but I'll take it over the company not doing anything to protect me.
NY was slaughtering its elderly. That’s where the excess deaths in that state are coming from. In addition to COVID patients being transferred back to nursing homes, nursing home care workers were too terrified to come to work, or to do as was required whilst at work, which resulted in excess deaths.

On top of that it has been documented that NYC hospitals were venting people who did not need it, as well as leaving people to die. It has also been documented that ventilators are more harmful than helpful for COVID. Yet people continue to be placed on vents here in the US.
 

ecommercewolf

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One thing that I have not seen mentioned... What are the actual risks of contracting C0VlD-19 while flying and on an airplane? Were the risks associated with that overexaggerated?

Obviously there is no social distancing in an airplane but it seems like the early theories that it's unsafe were overblown.

Thoughts?
 

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