I'm a Doctor Who Has C0VlD-19. AMA

[GIlman]

I don't understand why they won't reopen schools but the ACTUAL SCIENCE based on other countries' having reopened schools indicates that it would not be dangerous. Is it politics, Karenism run amok, or ????? Everyone's freaking out, but no one's looking at numbers. It's probably different numbers across the US, but there is a big chunk of students who simply dropped out last March with no school contact, and no further school work. This will only get worse the longer schools are closed. I'm not sure why no one is looking down the road at the larger societal problems that will result. Whether most kids are learning anything of value in school is another thread, but for a lot of kids, it's the only place they have structure and especially help for the special needs ones, and .... I could go on and on and I don't even have children!



Now, this is scary. We've already been living like this for months and I don't think it's sustainable.

And thanks, @Iwokeup for starting this thread! I've had some friends and relatives contract Covid and it's kind of scary what they're going through.

Questions: Will masks ever be done away with? Will HCQ ever gain acceptance and would it have saved lives if used? Are test counts accurate and how are we to believe ANYTHING we are told? And this last question is because of that lab in Florida that was churning out 100% positives and Texas taking a bunch of cases off the books. I don't know what to believe anymore.

The prevailing problem is that at this point there is a lot of conflicting science. That IS the nature of science though. It takes years and even decades for science to sort out most things. Actually science is never settled, even things that people think are settled change. For example look at the changing views of eating eggs over the years, are they going to kill you or are they the best nutrition on earth?

Secondly, because the science at this point is very murky and conflicting, there are no true experts on covid. There are infectious disease experts, but not specifically on covid.

Third, we are all making decisions based on real-time data. I can think of no other time in my career where medical recommendations were made based on real-time data. This is very prone to error, good science is based on studies where others validate the findings, and some researchers try to disprove the data and theories. This process of challenge and validation of studies is what results in reasonable confidence. Right now we do not have this and so we have no ability to establish any confidence in our studies.

There are so many things that make no sense with covid, someday we will be able to make sense of it, but right now we look at an outcome and imply a cause. This is a very very terrible way to derive any knowledge. For instance if you look at death rates per infection, they are considerably worse in many many states with extensive lockdowns compared to most of the states that did not. Florida’s death rate is actually way down the list. Why? No one can honesty tell you. They can only guess and project, which is not science, it is a guess.

The point of all this, there are NO answers, NO one really knows what’s going on. We see outcomes, and react...Fauci and other federal health experts have changed and continue to change their public opinions. Because they do not know!!!!

Those that have followed what I have been saying have seen changes in my opinions and analysis over time. I have the same problems trying to sort out data real time. The only thing I do know, is that covid IS less deadly by over an order of magnitude compared to what we initially thought. We do know that the impact is less than we thought. We have never run out of ventilators to date. So from this my mode of risk has changed dramatically.

All I follow now days is deaths. Yes it is a lagging metric, but it tells us impact. And does anything except impact really matter. The number of daily deaths has drastically decreased and at the moment mostly hit steady state. So this is not as scary as we initially thought: yes - some people get horribly sick, and - yes -some unlucky people die. But that is the risk of living, there are an infinite number of things trying to kill us everyday. All of life IS risk.

 

[Iwokeup]

Also ... sorry for all the questions. You did say AMA, though

The ACTUAL death rate for people who get the disease, including those who never show any symptoms, is something like .3% in the US. While not good, its a far cry from what was being reported (3-7%) earlier as the main reason for shutting down the economy.

Does the flu behave similarly? Are there significant numbers of flu cases that never show symptoms? Are those numbers included in the overall death rate? Why or why not?

To me, not including asymptomatic cases in the death rate artificially increases it, and is done simply to scare people so that we all stay home. We do need to stay home and wear masks to some extent because we need to not overwhelm ICUs, which would happen if everyone got sick all at once. But, lying like this to the public is a bad way of making that happen.

Am I looking at this correctly? What am I missing? What would you add to my line of logic?

It's actually much less deadly than the flu. Even the CDC is saying this now. :SMH:

The flu, like most illnesses, has an asymptomatic prodromal period where you can infect those around you. However very few people are ever asymptomatic with the flu (but may mask as a "light cold") because everyone's immune system is different. Think Bell Curve/Normal distribution. I'd say my immune system was at least 2 sigma above mean based on past performance.

Arguments in favor of mitigating hospital overload are valid IMHO. Any other emotional or Karen--like arguments are shit.

 

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[Iwokeup]

Are you having trouble working on your mission?
Did your motivation go down?

Well the last ten days have certainly been sub-optimal. Motivation in the absence of health was non-existent.

That said, I have a VA who's been cranking out stuff/TCB while I've been down b/c I have that system in place.

One lesson I'd offer for those who "struggle" for motivation or their "why":

Do some sort of program like 75Hard or whatever that forces you way out of your comfort zone, forces you to achieve something personally difficult, and when it comes time to buckle down for the entrepreneur thing....it should be much easier.

 

[Iwokeup]

For those that know me, I'm a part-time ER doctor turned entrepreneur. I was recently diagnosed with C0VlD-19 and wanted to help dispel any rumors about the illness, etc.

Quick background

- Middle aged, absolutely no health issues (like really. None)
- Never smoker, drink only 1-2 glasses of wine (or good whiskey!) a month. No drugs
- Workout 2x day (lift and cardio) - #75Hard routine, for those curious.
- Part time ER doctor still because I follow @Vigilante's advice to draw from the employee cup for as long as possible.
- Work in Texas and have seen literally hundreds of C0VlD-19 POSITIVE patients over the pandemic course.

[And yes, we are admitting a LOT of C0VlD-19 patients because they are sick. Recently admitted a 30 yo Paramedic who was sitting 70% on room air(!)]

- Not a Mask Karen/Nazi when not in the hospital. In fact, this is my motto outside of the hospital:


.
.
.
.
This is an update I shared with a colleague today:

I tested POSITIVE via nasal PCR for C0VlD-19. I'm doing well now. Managed to knock out a great w/o this morning (db presses, pull-ups, curls) but it was rough for a while.

HPI: Have worked every weekend in June and first weekend in July in the ERs. At least 5-10 C0VlD-19+ pts/12 hour shift. Using PPE when in room, face mask at workstation.
- Last work shift was 7/5.
- Sx onset 7/7 as follows: Fevers, arthralgia, myalgia. Dry cough.
- Sats on 7/9 down to 92%/RA. Add'l sx incl. nausea, loose stools and abdominal pain. Tachycardia.
- Started HCQ +Azithro+Zn on 7/9.
- Significant overall improvement.
- Nasal swab test 7/10
- Result POSITIVE yesterday (7/14).
- URI sx until 7/14 + fatigue.
- Absolutely asymptomatic today. Checked QTC with an EKG back in Mar and nl s no findings.
- Still taking med regimen.
- Sats have been 97-98 since 7/10

AMA. Will respond when time allows.

 

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[Iwokeup]

Is HCQ/Azithro/Zinc a go-to treatment now? (for patients without heart conditions) How widespread is its use?

Not officially. But if you want my opinion and the non-public opinion of many physicians? YES.

If I as a doctor were to publicly advocate for this there's a very real risk of losing my medical license because of 'Muh narrative." Not science.

Here's a nice little website that lays it down science-wise. Fauci et al are a bunch of fools or evil or both.

HCQ for COVID-19: real-time analysis of all 285 studies

HCQ for C0VlD-19: real-time analysis of all 285 studies

c19study.com

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Reminder: This is an AMA started by a doctor with C0VlD-19 and another medical doctor who has been studying this ... @Iwokeup and @GIlman ... please allow these two individuals to take the lead on this thread.

If this thread starts to go off the rails like the prior CV19 thread, it will be locked. Again.

Thanks.

 

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[csalvato]

The prevailing problem is that at this point there is a lot of conflicting science. That IS the nature of science though. It takes years and even decades for science to sort out most things. Actually science is never settled, even things that people think are settled change. For example look at the changing views of eating eggs over the years, are they going to kill you or are they the best nutrition on earth?

Secondly, because the science at this point is very murky and conflicting, there are no true experts on covid. There are infectious disease experts, but not specifically on covid.

Third, we are all making decisions based on real-time data. I can think of no other time in my career where medical recommendations were made based on real-time data. This is very prone to error, good science is based on studies where others validate the findings, and some researchers try to disprove the data and theories. This process of challenge and validation of studies is what results in reasonable confidence. Right now we do not have this and so we have no ability to establish any confidence in our studies.

There are so many things that make no sense with covid, someday we will be able to make sense of it, but right now we look at an outcome and imply a cause. This is a very very terrible way to derive any knowledge. For instance if you look at death rates per infection, they are considerably worse in many many states with extensive lockdowns compared to most of the states that did not. Florida’s death rate is actually way down the list. Why? No one can honesty tell you. They can only guess and project, which is not science, it is a guess.

The point of all this, there are NO answers, NO one really knows what’s going on. We see outcomes, and react...Fauci and other federal health experts have changed and continue to change their public opinions. Because they do not know!!!!

Those that have followed what I have been saying have seen changes in my opinions and analysis over time. I have the same problems trying to sort out data real time. The only thing I do know, is that covid IS less deadly by over an order of magnitude compared to what we initially thought. We do know that the impact is less than we thought. We have never run out of ventilators to date. So from this my mode of risk has changed dramatically.

All I follow now days is deaths. Yes it is a lagging metric, but it tells us impact. And does anything except impact really matter. The number of daily deaths has drastically decreased and at the moment mostly hit steady state. So this is not as scary as we initially thought: yes - some people get horribly sick, and - yes -some unlucky people die. But that is the risk of living, there are an infinite number of things trying to kill us everyday. All of life IS risk.

@GIlman I’m pretty sure you’re my spirit animal

 

[Iwokeup]

from:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-C0VlD-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134

"'Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections,' Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said on a call with reporters Thursday. "

Right.

Which would put the fatality rate @ 0.004% or 4 in 1,000.

For comparison, your risk of dying from a lightning strike in your life is estimated to be 1 in 3,000.

 

[GIlman]

Thanks. I'm not good at maths, but if infections are 10x than reported (in which case they should update their own data), then the death rate gets divided by 10. So, from the CDC data:

TOTAL CASES: 3,416,428
TOTAL DEATHS: 135,991

135,991 / (3,416,428 * 10) = 0.004 = 0.4%

which AFAIK is still around 3 times higher than the 0.13% flu death rate.

You are correct, it is 0.4%. From the data I have seen the estimated IFR (infection fatality rate) is 0.15%. Typical flu is reported around 0.06%, but obviously varies year to year based on the strain. So covid is between 2-3x more deadly than flu.

Do not confuse IFR with case fatality rate (CFR). CFR is deaths per positive tests, but based on antibody studies it is believed that there are 10x the number of infections than positive tests. Most people simply never get tested because they do not get that sick or choose not to get tested even if they feel significantly ill. Anyone saying 4% fatality is talking CFR not IFR, but CFR isn’t a good measure of impact because it can fluctuate widely depending on how many people that got sick also got tested.

 

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[Iwokeup]

The prevailing problem is that at this point there is a lot of conflicting science. That IS the nature of science though. It takes years and even decades for science to sort out most things. Actually science is never settled, even things that people think are settled change. For example look at the changing views of eating eggs over the years, are they going to kill you or are they the best nutrition on earth?

Secondly, because the science at this point is very murky and conflicting, there are no true experts on covid. There are infectious disease experts, but not specifically on covid.

Third, we are all making decisions based on real-time data. I can think of no other time in my career where medical recommendations were made based on real-time data. This is very prone to error, good science is based on studies where others validate the findings, and some researchers try to disprove the data and theories. This process of challenge and validation of studies is what results in reasonable confidence. Right now we do not have this and so we have no ability to establish any confidence in our studies.

There are so many things that make no sense with covid, someday we will be able to make sense of it, but right now we look at an outcome and imply a cause. This is a very very terrible way to derive any knowledge. For instance if you look at death rates per infection, they are considerably worse in many many states with extensive lockdowns compared to most of the states that did not. Florida’s death rate is actually way down the list. Why? No one can honesty tell you. They can only guess and project, which is not science, it is a guess.

The point of all this, there are NO answers, NO one really knows what’s going on. We see outcomes, and react...Fauci and other federal health experts have changed and continue to change their public opinions. Because they do not know!!!!

Those that have followed what I have been saying have seen changes in my opinions and analysis over time. I have the same problems trying to sort out data real time. The only thing I do know, is that covid IS less deadly by over an order of magnitude compared to what we initially thought. We do know that the impact is less than we thought. We have never run out of ventilators to date. So from this my mode of risk has changed dramatically.

All I follow now days is deaths. Yes it is a lagging metric, but it tells us impact. And does anything except impact really matter. The number of daily deaths has drastically decreased and at the moment mostly hit steady state. So this is not as scary as we initially thought: yes - some people get horribly sick, and - yes -some unlucky people die. But that is the risk of living, there are an infinite number of things trying to kill us everyday. All of life IS risk.

Couple of thoughts.

1. I do think that tracking deaths is probably the only valid metric at this point.

2. Agreed with the lack of experts on COVID. Because of this, I have a very hard time with claims of appeal to authority. This illness has many unique features that we haven't seen on a widespread basis before (such as the tendency to increased thrombosis in what is essentially a lower respiratory illness).

3. I think that, like all new or sui generis events, we start out with wildly separated brackets and over time are able to narrow down what is "true" vs what is "untrue." Eventually we'll figure out the "best set of ideas" that will inform our understanding of the illness going forward.

4. This illness has crushed the critical thinking skills of thousands of doctors and scientists.

@GIlman, you and I both know that scientists and doctors are humans with all of the inherent human biases. You and I also know that the amount of true rigor in the sciences has been falling off of a cliff over the past two decades (witness the staggering amount of research that cannot be replicated by other labs or groups despite having access to clear cut materials and methods).

Against this background, you have doctors/scientists who are "Get DRUMPF!!" or "Don't believe Libtards!111" ignoring data that stares them right in the face because it goes against their preferred narrative. SO disheartening. In the private Physician FB groups, the amount of flaming and rigidity of thought is staggering.

5. My thinking on this illness has also radically changed. Here's the timeline from a guy who's personal and family motto is "Panic Never Solves Anything":

• We're all going to die, especially me when working in the ER.
• Okay, maybe it's not that bad (early in the course of the illness during March time frame, when only NY the Tri-State area were getting slammed.
• The Death Cult hype is out of control
• Huge surge in our area: "Oh S!@#@# This illness is really F-d up. But I probably won't die or stroke out if I get it."
• I got the illness (Best time to be a radiologist EVER, amirite?) and it really sucked. That said, for the vast majority of people who get it, it's a minor-medium issue at best.

 

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[GIlman]

That link gives weight to my point. Look at their totals...a couple orders of magnitude less than ours.

Mask wearing makes logical sense to me - not as a protection for the wearer, but to reduce the transmission rate. Reduce that rate enough, and the disease becomes a trivial issue for the country.

From what I've read:

• C0VlD-19 behaves differently from other viruses and is often transmitted through the air, not in small particles, but larger droplets.
• whether or not you get sick depends on how many virus particles you ingest.
• Home made masks dramatically reduce the number of droplets, and the distance they travel. A recent study I saw reported on (journal of fluid dynamics, i think) showed images of an artificial sneeze. Without a mask, the particles were numerous, and went 6-8 feet. With a mask, the particles went just inches. The best performing mask was a home-made cotton one.
• Therefore, mask wearing + keeping your distance is how you stay away from the virus. Wash your hands frequently, and you've now covered your bases
• Reduce the number of people an infected person infects enough, and we can be like Japan

Where am I wrong?

There is no real evidence masks work. I looked at the research on the CDC site. None of the studies they cite would really indicate they would. There are studies with influenza and mask wearing, that shows no statistical difference between mask and no mask. Covid in many ways is similar to flu.

I use to think masks might be useful, but after watching people wearing masks, it’s apparent that there is a general lack in people understanding hygiene. People are constantly touching their masks, adjusting them up and down, not covering their nose, etc. You don’t see this in health care workers in hospitals, because they receive training on such things.

Also, I can tell you that in a medium sized hospital here in Phoenix they have had 150 employees infected as of last Friday. And they are all wearing masks all day long. And these are people who have received training and experience n using PPE.

Even IF masks are effective in catching and filtering the virus, it just becomes a collector and concentrator of infected spit that people touch and spread all over.

Are masks more helpful or hurtful in spreading covid? The jury is out at this time, but the evidence and observation of mask hygiene behaviors I would say I’m not hopeful that masks do more good than harm.

 

[Iwokeup]

How serious is it? Is it as bad as we're being told on the news?

Depends.

If you're over 50 with medical illnesses then you have to be cautious. That said, younger folks with medical issues need to talk with their doctor in order to assess their risk.

In Texas, yes, the prevalence is astounding and so is the number of people being hospitalized. We don't know what underlying medical conditions most of these people have. So far the death rates are down.

FWIW, all of the dozens that I've admitted have all had serious underlying medical conditions such as serious asthma, COPD, diabetes, morbid obesity (BMI >35), etc etc.

 

[Iwokeup]

What are your thoughts on kids going to back to school?

What @Vigilante said.

Also there's this:



TL;DR

No (none, nada, zilch, zippo) transmission from kids to others, verified by DNA sequencing of the virus that each child/adult was infected with.

 

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[Iwokeup]

Are lockdowns counter-intuitive?

Meaning... They slow our progress out of this mess...

What is better for "the greater good" lockdowns or recoveries?

Yes. Remember, the lockdowns were only ever to mitigate the risk of overwhelming hospital capacity. Remember those days? LOL

 

[GIlman]

@Iwokeup agreed on hydroxychloroquine, all evidence I have seen is that it works if administered early. Not a shocker since Oseltamivir also must be administered early for influenza.

These drugs are about preventing viral entry into more cells. Once the cat is too far out of the bag it’s a done deal and these meds are useless. The studies touted as proof HCQ does not work always looked at giving it to intubated and already very sick patients, which made no sense from a mechanism standpoint.

 

[Iwokeup]

Statistics are skewed depending on the narrative being pushed. This sadly seems like the the state of "studies" these days. You basically have to trust the funding source of these studies isn't paying for the results they publish. In a perfect world, all studies are done for the facts, but corruption is real.

Agreed. There's so much disinformation or willing blindness to information that contradicts what you want to believe. On all sides.

The total number of US deaths being advertised is in the mid 100,000's. I also heard that total includes deaths where the patient had COVID at the time of death, but it was not caused by COVID. Some weeks ago, a board member of the San Diego county health department(?) said of the 3.3m population, there were ~112 COVID-related deaths on record and only ~6 were CAUSED by COVID.

If true that's horrible.

Take this with a grain of salt, but here is the CDC's own tabulation of "excess deaths" in the US since Feb 1 2020. You can play around with data visualization by choosing different metrics.

• Looking at the far end of the graphs, it looks like there have been a fair number of excess deaths since the pandemic started.
• What we don't know:
  • How many of those excess deaths were due to treatable conditions that went untreated because people feared the Rona?
  • How many of those excess deaths were truly from the 'Rona? GI=GO

hen I heard hospitals are paid ~$9k for each COVID case, and paid an additional ~$30k for each COVID patient that requires a ventilator. I saw multiple videos of actual doctors telling stories like this. I also heard if you're put on a ventilator for a long enough period of time, it's hard for the body to breathe on its own again. I'm sure at least some patients were put on ventilators when they didn't need to be, resulting in avoidable deaths.

So how many of the deaths are actually CAUSED by COVID, and how many were avoidable? My guess is less than half.

All of these conflicting studies and narrative pushes forced me into my stance, which is, trust nobody. The only problem is one of the narratives is making my life harder for what seems like no reason. I've seen the suits that virologists have to wear, and a bandana isn't stopping anything. We might as well not "slow the spread" and get it over with so we can get on with our lives.

Trust no one is a great place to come from. I'm telling you, just because someone is an "expert" at something, if the data sucks then your estimates are going to suck. Plus this disease is like but unlike anything we've ever seen before, so it's difficult to be an expert.

Sorry, more of a rant than a question. I appreciate your non-politicized feedback on this, and I hope you're doing well.

Doing well. Off quarantine today and it feels good man. But watching grown men act like scared children is just.....wrong, man.

 

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[rollerskates]

TL;DR

No (none, nada, zilch, zippo) transmission from kids to others, verified by DNA sequencing of the virus that each child/adult was infected with.

I don't understand why they won't reopen schools but the ACTUAL SCIENCE based on other countries' having reopened schools indicates that it would not be dangerous. Is it politics, Karenism run amok, or ????? Everyone's freaking out, but no one's looking at numbers. It's probably different numbers across the US, but there is a big chunk of students who simply dropped out last March with no school contact, and no further school work. This will only get worse the longer schools are closed. I'm not sure why no one is looking down the road at the larger societal problems that will result. Whether most kids are learning anything of value in school is another thread, but for a lot of kids, it's the only place they have structure and especially help for the special needs ones, and .... I could go on and on and I don't even have children!

Maybe next spring? Honestly, it's going to take time and in my opinion is going to become endemic and something that we deal with for years to come.

Now, this is scary. We've already been living like this for months and I don't think it's sustainable.

And thanks, @Iwokeup for starting this thread! I've had some friends and relatives contract Covid and it's kind of scary what they're going through.

Questions: Will masks ever be done away with? Will HCQ ever gain acceptance and would it have saved lives if used? Are test counts accurate and how are we to believe ANYTHING we are told? And this last question is because of that lab in Florida that was churning out 100% positives and Texas taking a bunch of cases off the books. I don't know what to believe anymore.

 

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[MTF]

on face masks: I thought that the point of wearing a mask wasn't to prevent the wearer from getting Covid, but to catch some of the particles they exhale, in case they have covid themselves. This, so they say, reduces the chance of spreading the virus to people in their vicinity. I also thought there were studies that showed this was effective in the case of this virus. (The theory being that if you reduce, even by a little bit, the how many people an infected person infects, you can greatly reduce the overall spread of the disease) No?

The situation in Japan (an obedient mask-wearing society) shows how useful the masks are:

Japan COVID-19 Coronavirus Tracker

Live updates of the Coronavirus C0VlD-19 outbreak in Japan

covid19japan.com

We're talking about a country that just two weeks ago was lauded for their habits (for example here: Is the Secret to Japan’s Virus Success Right in Front of Its Face?).

Yet it seems like the masks did nothing to prevent a second wave. Obviously there are other factors but nonetheless a society known for obedience, mask-wearing, keeping distance, etc. didn't avoid a second wave.

 

[Iwokeup]

Are asymptomatic people contagious?

The jury is out. I'd say NO based on multiple studies but this is evolving.

 

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[Iwokeup]

I don't understand why they won't reopen schools but the ACTUAL SCIENCE based on other countries' having reopened schools indicates that it would not be dangerous. Is it politics, Karenism run amok, or ????? Everyone's freaking out, but no one's looking at numbers. It's probably different numbers across the US, but there is a big chunk of students who simply dropped out last March with no school contact, and no further school work. This will only get worse the longer schools are closed. I'm not sure why no one is looking down the road at the larger societal problems that will result. Whether most kids are learning anything of value in school is another thread, but for a lot of kids, it's the only place they have structure and especially help for the special needs ones, and .... I could go on and on and I don't even have children!

You're right. We're fighting emotions and the need to belong to the "in group" fighting against the "enemy," or the "out group" who advocate for opening schools. There's lots of fear and logic almost never prevails in those situations.

Also, in my probably unpopular opinion: This is the reaction that you get when a society favors feminine-centric emotionalism as the only basis for persuasion and devalues traditionally male logic-centered reason. (Caveat that OF COURSE all humans are subject to emotional persuasion and panic. It's just that that approach almost always leads to disaster).

Questions: Will masks ever be done away with? Will HCQ ever gain acceptance and would it have saved lives if used? Are test counts accurate and how are we to believe ANYTHING we are told? And this last question is because of that lab in Florida that was churning out 100% positives and Texas taking a bunch of cases off the books. I don't know what to believe anymore.

• Masks: Not for a while.
• HCQ: Probably 10 yrs from now, people will say, "Duh. It worked. Why couldn't we see it?"
  • BTW, this is the same reaction that many of us had to the Patriot Act. Don't you sheep/npcs see that giving the government unlimited power to surveil you in the name of "Safety" will eventually lead to tyranny?
    • NPCs then: "Stop with the tinfoil dude." Or "That will never happen." Or "What have you got to hide?"
    • NPCs now: "The government watches everything I do? Whaaaaaaa??????!!"
  • Of course, I could be wrong about HCQ. I reserve the right to be convinced otherwise.
• Testing: likely a combination of politics (everything is politicized now) plus some sort of financial incentives.

 

[Jon L]

The situation in Japan (an obedient mask-wearing society) shows how useful the masks are:

Japan COVID-19 Coronavirus Tracker

Live updates of the Coronavirus C0VlD-19 outbreak in Japan

covid19japan.com

We're talking about a country that just two weeks ago was lauded for their habits (for example here: Is the Secret to Japan’s Virus Success Right in Front of Its Face?).

Yet it seems like the masks did nothing to prevent a second wave. Obviously there are other factors but nonetheless a society known for obedience, mask-wearing, keeping distance, etc. didn't avoid a second wave.

That link gives weight to my point. Look at their totals...a couple orders of magnitude less than ours.

Mask wearing makes logical sense to me - not as a protection for the wearer, but to reduce the transmission rate. Reduce that rate enough, and the disease becomes a trivial issue for the country.

From what I've read:

• C0VlD-19 behaves differently from other viruses and is often transmitted through the air, not in small particles, but larger droplets.
• whether or not you get sick depends on how many virus particles you ingest.
• Home made masks dramatically reduce the number of droplets, and the distance they travel. A recent study I saw reported on (journal of fluid dynamics, i think) showed images of an artificial sneeze. Without a mask, the particles were numerous, and went 6-8 feet. With a mask, the particles went just inches. The best performing mask was a home-made cotton one.
• Therefore, mask wearing + keeping your distance is how you stay away from the virus. Wash your hands frequently, and you've now covered your bases
• Reduce the number of people an infected person infects enough, and we can be like Japan

Where am I wrong?

 

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[Ozz]

Asian countries aren't completely fabricating their numbers. That is why they 'appear' to be better off than the US. I say 'appear' in quotes because they are no better off than the US, or you may consider the US is no worse off than them, unless you read flawed, bullshit data.

I've been in Taiwan (and Thailand in February) since this started and the US is 100% worse off. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11. No matter what you think about the true statistics, it's definitely much much worse than Asian countries.

 

[Vigilante]

Anecdotal evidence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Anecdotal evidence is evidence from anecdotes: evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony."

What I was trying to convey here is, you have to look at the data, and not draw conclusions from your experiences.

So we're supposed to listen to your opinion, in Germany, of what is happening in Taiwan?

Let me reitterate a few facts for you. Read them slowly. They're facts :

1. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools.
2. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation.
3. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11.

Based on those three FACTS, if you have any questions regarding that post or anything to contribute beyond your own conjecture, feel free. Meanwhile, the above three FACTS sound pretty damn good compared to the hysteria in the United States.

 

[Iwokeup]

What do you think abount exercising while sick with a what looks like a mild case of C0VlD-19?

Since C0VlD-19 appears to be mostly a clotting disorder, would the best course of action to treat it be staying active and eating foods/taking supplements that help thin the blood? Like walking a lot at home rather than lying in bed, supplementing with turmeric, high doses of fish oil, Vitamin D, Zinc and Vitamin C.

Is bigger viral load/less viral load a huge factor in the disease's progression?

And last but not least, how to not die?

Thanks.

Eh. Exercise to your tolerance. I for one was completely wiped out and couldn't do anything.

Yes to the above. Baby aspirin (81 mg) daily can't hurt most people.

Yes. Bigger viral load -->> worse illness

Don't be fat. Don't smoke. Don't add on to any medical problems that you might have.

 

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[Jon L]

Would you mind sharing the source of where the CDC said this? I had a look at the CDC website, and the data there seems different.

Data of the 2016-2017 flu season: Burden of Influenza

Symptomatic illnesses: 29,000,000
Deaths: 38,000

which is a death rate of 0.13%

whereas the death rate for covid is around 4%: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (C0VlD-19) in the U.S.

TOTAL CASES: 3,416,428
TOTAL DEATHS: 135,991

Am I looking at the data in the wrong way?

from:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-C0VlD-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134

"'Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections,' Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said on a call with reporters Thursday. "

 

[daniel_m]

What kind of long term effects are you seeing from Corona Virus, in patients and other people who got it?

I'm not afraid of getting sick, but I am a little bit concerned in permanent lung damage, if that's possible. It's my understanding that some people have lingering symptoms even months after beating COVID, which is really bizarre.

 

[Jon L]

on face masks: I thought that the point of wearing a mask wasn't to prevent the wearer from getting Covid, but to catch some of the particles they exhale, in case they have covid themselves. This, so they say, reduces the chance of spreading the virus to people in their vicinity. I also thought there were studies that showed this was effective in the case of this virus. (The theory being that if you reduce, even by a little bit, the how many people an infected person infects, you can greatly reduce the overall spread of the disease) No?

 

[Iwokeup]

One thing re: immunity. Very few viruses convey lifelong immunity. Think about it, not even chickenpox gives lifelong immunity anymore.

I'm not very bullish on a vaccine, plus I refuse to be a guinea pig.

 

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[wade1mil]

Statistics are skewed depending on the narrative being pushed. This sadly seems like the the state of "studies" these days. You basically have to trust the funding source of these studies isn't paying for the results they publish. In a perfect world, all studies are done for the facts, but corruption is real.

The total number of US deaths being advertised is in the mid 100,000's. I also heard that total includes deaths where the patient had COVID at the time of death, but it was not caused by COVID. Some weeks ago, a board member of the San Diego county health department(?) said of the 3.3m population, there were ~112 COVID-related deaths on record and only ~6 were CAUSED by COVID.

Then I heard hospitals are paid ~$9k for each COVID case, and paid an additional ~$30k for each COVID patient that requires a ventilator. I saw multiple videos of actual doctors telling stories like this. I also heard if you're put on a ventilator for a long enough period of time, it's hard for the body to breathe on its own again. I'm sure at least some patients were put on ventilators when they didn't need to be, resulting in avoidable deaths.

So how many of the deaths are actually CAUSED by COVID, and how many were avoidable? My guess is less than half.

All of these conflicting studies and narrative pushes forced me into my stance, which is, trust nobody. The only problem is one of the narratives is making my life harder for what seems like no reason. I've seen the suits that virologists have to wear, and a bandana isn't stopping anything. We might as well not "slow the spread" and get it over with so we can get on with our lives.

Sorry, more of a rant than a question. I appreciate your non-politicized feedback on this, and I hope you're doing well.

 

[Kak]

I am going to be Puerto Rican soon so I don't have a horse in this race, but this does seem to be the case.