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Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

WJK

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My parents used to tell me the same stories, about soviet times in 80s - you could enter the supermarket, but there was nothing to buy.
Yes, the shelves are bare, and the supply lines are broken. And this is a great opportunity for USA to bring our manufacturing home again. We can do it. We know how to do it. With the addition of AI and robots, we can do it better than before. So, we must have the will to get started and stop belly aching...

Edit: To continue... We had a more difficult summer due to the lack of lumber. We did NOT get all of the jobs done that we had scheduled. My husband had to harvest trees, cut them on our saw mill, and then we built roofs with that lumber. I usually buy semi-truck loads of logs that my husband and his helpers cut on our saw mill for our projects. Our supplier milled the logs he had set aside for us, and he sold the lumber at top dollar. He made a lot of money and he did what was best for him. And we, likewise, did what was best for us.

There are things we couldn't do this summer because we did NOT have the building materials at the moment that we needed them. Now, as the fall comes on, we're fine. This too shall pass.

Shake-ups like this one, are usually more of a "shake-out" than a tragedy. Those who cannot cope -- those who are NOT prepared -- lazy people who are sliding along -- those who are over extended and living on thin ice -- and the inexperienced -- end up on the wrong side of these situations. I had no idea it would be global pandemic, but I've been preparing for the next cycle for the last few years. I'm not saying you can foresee and be prepared for anything every time. I am saying that I'm old and wise enough to meet these moments head-on. I know how to make a whole pitcher of lemonade out of a single, old, ugly lemon.
 
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Antifragile

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In Cananda liberal party came to power and ramped up taxes on “the rich”. Highest personal tax went up from 46% to 53%.

To get out from inflation you need productivity to increase. Problem is, these high taxes hit the people who are most productive. Those who earn in the highest bracket are ones who often produce the most and get kicked in the nuts the most. Those who are asset rich aren’t affected. Those who are not as productive get lower taxes.

Small business is the backbone of Canadian economy and our government doesn’t get it. It’s simple, it’s basic - increase productivity. Leave those who produce alone. Celebrate them, reward them. The rest will want the same treatment and start new businesses etc. It‘s a virtuous cycle if you just let it be.

Instead, the thing that gets them re-elected is more stimulus money printing, more big speeches, promises… Ugh…
 

GPM

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Some numbskull from the US federal government just said that the supply shortages will be over once everyone is vaxxed. I guess that is the answer everyone
 
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theag

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Yes, I might have all hardbacks in black cloth with gold lettering, all copies signed. Very minimalistic, perhaps limited edition.
takemymoney.jpg
 

GIlman

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So, we are clearly experiencing unprecedented inflation (at least for recent history).

I'm wondering how high they will raise rates (they mentioned TRIPLING THEM on the latest meeting), and why their actions have been so different compared to thehigh rates of the 80's? Is it political activism on the part of the Fed?

Anybody have insight to this? I'm looking at @WJK in particular :D

Just watching for how BIG things could shift. If they went to double digit rates, wow.

The fed has backed itself into a corner. Unlike when Paul Vollcker was fed chair and raised the interest rate to double digits to fight inflation, the fed today cannot do that without forcing the US government into a severe debt squeeze - which could lead to default.

The difference is the size of debt of the government in relation to the tax base it receives. Currently rates on treasuries are very low, keeping the percent of the tax base spent on interest relatively low. Essentially as debt has gone up over the years interest rates have gone down keeping interest payments low.

As we print more and more money in these low interest rate environment, we create an interest trap. Because if interest rates rise to say double digits, the government would be in an unprecedented position where a massive percentage of tax revenues would be required to service the debt.

In this scenario as interest goes up, and interest costs go up, less money is available to pay for non interest obligations. In this scenario they only have a few options on the table.

1) dramatically cut obligations - this only helps slow down the rate of debt rising, but as long as the gov is running a deficit cutting obligations does not result in actual net saving just net decrease in additional debt accumulation.

2) dramatically raise taxes - there is a limit to this since you can only tax up to 100% of available income.

3) confiscate citizens assets to pay debt - this has been done before such as the gold confiscation in the US then doubling the price of gold. Or in other countries and their bail ins from bank or retirement accounts.

3) print exponentially increasing amounts of money to fund the government - this only escalates the problem by increasing the percent of tax revenues consumed by interest payments.

My bet is that the government will raise interest slightly but inflation will continue to burn very hot for many years to come. It’s a convenient way for governments to erase past debt without raising tax rates. Inflation is a silent tax that the government can pretend they are not responsible for.

It also raises tax revenues in dollars, since as wages/property values increase, then tax collections go up. E.g, 10% of $100,000 in wages is $10,000 in taxes. $10% of $200,000 in wages is $20,000 in taxes.

All of this empoverishs the people, and this is when server civil unrest and outright civil war becomes a serious risk. Some serious people like Ray Dalio are warning of the risk of some sort of civil was based on historical precedence.

As an aside his new book is excellent and a must read to understand what’s going on right now.

 
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MJ DeMarco

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Ever notice whenever there are price changes for items you use, it is never at or near the stated inflation rate? But always double or triple?

Government: Inflation is 6%!
Me: Then why has X, Y, and Z gone up 18%?
 

MJ DeMarco

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Do people here think these single digit inflation numbers are accurate?

People here, as in the forum? I don't think so. I contend it is 15-18%.

In general, the rest of the country believes the numbers because they believe whatever the media/government tells 'em.
 
D

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1. Renting a room in Brussels for students (or anyone else for that matter): +22%

Last year, you'd have prices averaging 450 euros per month, especially in apartments where you'd have several rooms. Now, these are priced at 550 euros a month. I have seen rooms for 680 euros - ROOMS, NOT STUDIOS - in Brussels, which is insane. I know people renting for 550+ euros rooms in a 7-bedrooms houses.

The spike in prices arrived after the quarantine, in a time when the demand is actually LOWER for rooms.

Go figure.

When I was studying in Rotterdam, rents DOUBLED in-between 2015 and 2018, and the whole RE took 30%.

I had warned my mother who was looking to invest that it was going to happen, but she hadn't believed me. Too bad for her.

2. Phones and computers: -?%

Xiaomi has made an AMOLED screen phone for less than 200 euros. I feel smartphones keep on getting cheaper. Not computers, though.

In 2014, I bought a Lenovo laptop, 15 inches screen, core i3 processor, HD screen for 395 euros. 7 years later, the beast is still running.

I bought a new laptop in July 2020. AMD Ryzen 5 (4000 series), 13 inches screen. Price tag: 700 euros. It's a much better and faster computer, but I would have probably paid the likes of 550-600 euros for such machine in 2014. Inflation: +21%

3. Food: +18% on average


About one year ago, my Carrefour (Walmart equivalent) ran a giant advertising campaign. DECREASE OF PRICES ON 1000 PRODUCTS. And it was true. My bacon went from 2.5 euros to 2.3 or so.

No less than two weeks later, that same bacon had gone up to 2.9 euros.

I don't know if you want to compute the increase from 2.5 or 2.3 onward since this strategy had been duly planned by the company, so let's do both: 16% and 26% respectively.

My meat package I used to buy for 34 euros went to 39 a couple of weeks after I had noticed it to be unusually cheap (must have been November 2019). It remained steady since, but they replaced the burgers they were giving out with some other stuff I don't remember. +14%

4. Bitcoin: +833%


Lmao


Conclusion:

Despite the signs, I am not convinced that inflation is here to stay.
I am still persuaded we are headed for deflation long-term because we won't be able to sustain equal level of consumption as production per capita is not increasing fast enough. China is done selling stuff on the cheap which will drive prices up, preventing even more people than before from buying. WHen you produce and no one buys your stuff, you whether stop producing, which creates deflation at the beginning of the supply chain, or you decrease your prices.

The RE market (in Brussels at least) will crash and the impact will be stronger than the asteroid's that killed dinosaurs.

A lot of people will lose their jobs in the post-corona world (in the HORECA especially). Growth stopped a long-time ago in the western developed countries. People are not having babies to sustain/increase consumption. And they become warier and warier of conspicuous consumption.

I don't really know where we are headed, but one constant seems clear. Whether prices inflate or deflate, purchasing power of slowlaners will decrease.
 

Rwill

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well JPOW keeps suggesting that the inflation is transitory..

I can see that in a few industries.

I'm not sure how it's 'transitory' in RE prices.

That being said, Lumber prices are up huuuuge... And yet, I was reading an article that Trees by the ton (for harvesting to use in lumber products) are at all time lows.

Personally I don't understand the disconnect in the price if material input is so low.
Are saw mills are hoarding product?
or is this because Covid created such a huge back log in workers?

I would think it's all assembly lines cutting/making wood... so realistically how backed up could you be that you have a price increase of 300%?

I just can't see how finished lumber products can be up 300% when wood product is at the cheapest ever.

There there is the "chip shortage".
This actually makes a bit of sense - given that people were home for 12 months and had to buy comptuers/monitors/and laptops to keep their kids busy....

So is that also transitory?

Is it short term transitory, or long term? Like why can't saw mills keep up with demand.
I live in B.C, the largest lumber producing jurisdiction in North America. The land is Crown land (owned by the province) so to log it you pay a fee per tree to the government. That fee is basically based on what the market was at 6 months prior.
So lumber was high about 2 years ago, bumping up the stumpage fee, then it tanked but the government refused to lower the stumpage. Many of the saw mills shut down temporary (some permanently due to weak future forcasts of supply) and many of the saw mills that stayed open refused to fill their log yards due to the cost of raw logs. Most mills didn't bid on sections of government land to log in the shoulder season.
Weak prices were forcast to last through into 2020.
Fast forward to January and Covid started to roll out. Most mills shut down with the rest of industry out of safety concerns.
Once they opened back up they had empty yards, no supply lined up and rising demand. Basically they were caught completely off guard and a 4 month production window was missed. Since then contractors and retailers have been bidding up the available stock.
I predict that in about 4 months it will come back to a semblance of normal as production catches up, as well as its now cost feasible to ship lumber from Europe.

OSB and plywood however, those are caused by a shortage in the glue used to manufacturer it. Until that supply line comes back on track prices will remain high.


Just what I've noticed living in a lumber producing town
 
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Matt Sun

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Inflations is a great way to lower salaries into oblivion "without actually doing it".
It's a great way of stealing savings.

I guess that's why we have so much inflation in Hispanic - America and countries ruled by criminals in general. OFC politicians would always say it's multi causal and doesn't have to do with the money printing AT ALL.
Later they blame the bad capitalist that "speculate" with prices and implement... more communisms, like stating maximum prices, which brings shortages of goods, poverty and yes, even more communism.
 

WestCoast

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We're going to do our first 'mid year' price increase, I think ever, next month.
Everything has gone crazy, and we keep raising prices to keep up.

--
I have left a lot of money in cash the last few years, waiting for an opportunity.
Lost 3-5% a year, easily, on it for 2-3 years.

About to use all that cash, lever up.

After that, assuming the purchase delivers as expected, I have NO idea what I'm going to do with any future cash.
I am not convinced US Dollars are the right store anymore.

My physical gold investments have gone nowhere in 10+ years.
Only thing I make money on is business - so, got to imagine I'll just keep investing in those.

Crazy times. But the best, adapt and move forward. (even if they have no idea how right now)
 
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Bruno Calisso

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I think some of us are thinking too much about this whole inflation situation.

Yes, for those that have millions of dollars in the bank, it makes sense to stress over inflation and figure out the best strategy to protect the value of your money.

With that said, for those that are nowhere near "FU money", does it really matter? If you weren't able to buy a house before, what difference does it make?

I guess what I'm trying to say, it seems to me some people are way too worried about inflation when in fact, they should strive to be in a position where inflation or not, it wouldn't make a difference. Having your $100m worth $50m, is still better than making $50k/year.

There's so many opportunities right now for entrepreneurs, I just don't think it's worth stressing over something you can't control. Inflation can't stop entrepreneurs from making 8-9 figure exists in two years from brands they bootstrapped.

Again, just my opinion.
You need to rethink that bro.

Minimum wage in Portugal is 665€.

Lets say I manage to save 266€ (40%) per month.

In 2.5 years I'll have €8K saved.

Now, suppouse I have €20K in my bank account and the annual inflation rate is 2% (the usual "official rate").

I'll be losing about 400€ per year.

In 20 years I've lost €8K, that is about 40% — half of my savings... This is pure theft.

Twenty years ago it took me 2.5 years of life sacrifices to save those eight grand.

That's what's fuc*ed up about inflation, those 2% might not seem much of big deal now, but in the long term they will steal your precious years of life.

If you are poor it's even worse, by the time a slowlaner retires the Mafia State has already eaten half of their retirement savings.

CASH IS TRASH, INFLATION IS THEFT.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Bekit

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Here's a recent example of shrinkflation.

I just got toilet paper at Costco.

I still had a package of the same brand of TP that I bought before the pandemic. So I was curious to see if they had changed anything about it.

Yep.

Feb 2020:
Price: $16.99
Rolls: 30
Sheets per roll: 425
Total square feet: 1593.7

July 2021:
Price: $16.99
Rolls: 30
Sheets per roll: 380
Total square feet: 1425

0718211842.jpg
45 fewer sheets per roll, and 168 fewer total square feet.

Interestingly, they've managed to make the package look about the same size. But you can tell that the rolls in the top package are stuffed so full they're like rounded squares, while in the bottom package, they're just round circles.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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which worries me that at 2008 style crash could be imminent.

I don't think so.

I think it will only level and stagnate for a few years.

In 2008 money was easy, all you had to do was apply, lie, and sign your name. Boom, instant loan.

Today's underwriting for mortgage money is extremely stringent and a lot of the fraud loopholes have been closed.
 
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WJK

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Yeah, see, stuff like that almost seems intentional.

It's like trying to destroy America on purpose.

Why didn't they gradually raise them?!

We can't control the idiocy from up top, but we can learn lessons from the past...
We had double digit inflation at the time. That interest rate raise stopped the inflation cold in its tracks. It also killed everything else. There was virtually no lending for a couple of years.

I was doing plottage -- putting together housing tracks on land that had been up-zoned from RA to R-1. We were selling whole neighborhoods of up-zoned land so there were many different land owners involved in each project. After the deals were agreed to with the different land owners, it took 18 months to get a preliminary tract map from the city offices for the new housing tract. Then we would close all those deals for the contractor. When the interest rate hike hit, all of our contractors lost their funding from the Saving and Loan Associations and banks, for the land purchases and the construction. Several went bankrupt. We lost every project that we had in progress. It was over 3 years worth of work -- instantly gone with a governmental decision that had nothing to do with me.

But, I learned a lot during those 3 years that I worked on those deals. I learned a lot about putting together deals with a whole bunch of sellers. I learned about solving title problems, CC&Rs, and easement problems (Farmer Brown grants an easement to Farmer Green to walk his cow from the creek over to his north 40 acres...). I learned how the contractors put their tracts together. And then about the different stages of construction and marketing.
Mostly I learned how fragile life is. It can all be gone in a heartbeat.
 

MJ DeMarco

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At Costco the other day, I saw a box freezer from $139. That seemed pretty darn cheap to me along with televisions ... gotta keep that obedient citizenry consuming mass media propaganda.
 
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Walter Hay

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There are many companies that have basically shut down, and not will not ship anything over from China until the prices become lower because they can’t make any money.
The China supply problem is partly due to the CCP setting out to take ownership of manufacturing businesses away from wealthy individuals, and convert them into state owned businesses.

It seems reminiscent of the Soviet Communist series of 5 year plans that saw state control of all industries including agriculture. The subsequent lesson of serious decline in productivity does not seem to have been learned by the CCP.

I commented on the problems with huge freight cost increases in the thread linked below, but was seriously over-optimistic when I wrote: "For those in the US, my suggestion is to try sourcing in Mexico and if possible, Brazil. Road transport is available from both."

Road transport in Latin America is suffering from the same problems now being encountered in many countries.

Maybe I should have suggested buying locally, preferably from a manufacturer within a short drive from your premises, so you don't spend too much on increasingly expensive gas.

If in the UK you might not want to drive anywhere because you might have to push your car home because you can't find petrol.

I am an optimist by nature, but I must admit to a slight worry about the future for many eCommerce businesses.

Freight costs from China to the U.S. From $8000 to $24,000 per 40 foot container in the past month.

Walter
 
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Kak

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The government never learns. Price controls always leads to shortages. The next step if for the government to start rationing the public. Rationing leads to terrible terrible outcomes that are often not predictable but always cause human suffering in some form.

This cycle has repeated over and over again. Painful as it is to the wallet, allowing prices to surge to short supply or rising demand incentivizes companies to find creative solutions to produce and deliver more, which ultimately will drive prices down from their highs.

Listening to politicians talk, the World Economic Forum, and the UN…I’ve come to believe that a lot of this is actually intended and desired by these people. They don’t talk about things returning to normal, they talk about a new normal. The way they describe this new normal is dystopian and nothing like we are use to living.

While people here are interested in prosperity and what that entails, they appear fully invested in control and domination. Which always leads to a loss of prosperity.
They view people as problems to be managed instead of a source of betterment and innovation.

Look up the Great Enrichment for some fun reading. The reason for our standard of living now vs 500 years ago was the embrace of the individual. The top has never and will never have the monopoly on good ideas. That’s why there are always new self made entrepreneurs from every generation.

Society is reverting to centralized ruler which is what kept civilization in bondage.
 

MJ DeMarco

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So so cheapskate somewhere balks ... who cares ...?

MJ's a sell out!
MJ's selling $50 books!
MJ's a hypocrite guru!


Oh boy, I can just hear it now. And I hear shit already because my books still cost ten or twenty bucks. No, according to a lot of folks, my books should be FREE. My time, my life experience, my advice, everything should be free.

TMF should not be the lowest priced life-changing book on the market.

It's not. It's on the top tier... paperbacks usually cost $18.95 ... all my work starts at $22.95 which is a good 20% premium.

Hardbacks usually retail for $24.95 to $26.96 .... priced at $28.95 I'd lose the .37 cents. I'd have to price at $30.95 to just breakeven, while pissing off a lot of people.

So basically my calculation is the ratio of people who want to buy hardbacks but also would be pissed off at the extraordinarily high price. I'm guessing that ratio is too high. In other words, this is a lose lose.
 

GIlman

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In this case Weimar republic would be an irrelevant comparison, as it was after the loss in WW1, country was destroyed, their economy was small and currency was not world reserve. I don't think America has any of those issues. Americans probably forget that USD is not only used in USA, but in other countries too, more than their local currencies. E.g. I use USD for almost all transactions, for pricing. Everybody I know does the same and C0VlD made this trend even stronger due to unstable local currency.
Another reason why everybody holds USD, is that when purchasing anything outside the country, you get the base price in USD, while you need to pay additional fees for other currencies.

The extent of the problem may may not be as bad, but the dynamics of how and why the problem of increasing money supply, and velocity of money rapidly expanding leads to uncontrollable hyperinflation is the same, it is universal, and it is consistent regardless of all the facts on the periphery.

All fiat currencies always go to their intrinsic value of $0, the question is simply how long it takes - sometimes it's hundreds of years, sometimes it's a matter of a year or two.

Read about the inflation and struggles of the roman empire, although they are not identical today, there is clearly an echo of what we are seeing now...and history knows how that turned out.

 
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MJ DeMarco

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The thing I am most worried about at the moment is the implosion of the USD as the reserve currency. Pulling Russia out of smart may have felt emotionally good to some, but we are creating a bifurcated world with multipolar currency systems. The only thing that kept the USD value up was having the reserve currency of the world.

Russia just pegged the ruble to gold, the value of the ruble has essentially fully recovered. Russia is starting to push people to pay in rubles instead of USD.

Trillions in reserves are held around the world by central banks, if those reserves start coming back to the US to be used to get what value out of them that they can, then hold onto your pants because inflation could be an exceptional unimaginable beast.

From what I’m seeing, it looks like the US decisions to impose sanctions on Russia very well might be the straw that breaks the camels back and results in the decimation of the dollar. All fiat currencies eventually fail, and all the parts are in place for the USD to follow history.

Yes, with the Ruble backed by something tangible and solid, not backed by idiot bankers and corrupt politicians in DC, it seems the Ruble is the better long-term hold. Throw in the idea that they want to tax unrealized gains in a massive wealth confiscation scheme, forcing capital gain assets to liquidate creating massive supply and little demand when sellers go to market, and things are shaping up just as the World Economic Forum would like.
 

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I'm convinced any entrepreneur who believes in Keynesian economics is destined to fail. If you don't understand the meaning of "money", "value" and "fiat" how can you possibly understand capital, equity or leverage?

The US has two major exports: force (military) and money (USD). Those two back each-other. Try creating your own goods-backed currency and suddenly you're a dictator whose people need liberation. The only fiat I remotely trust is crypto since at least it is decentralized, but if the Feds can somehow reverse Bitcoin exchanges, perhaps it's not as secure as we'd like after all.

Depending upon how far things fall will depend upon the best investment. If we're just facing a hyperinflation of the USD, then basically any asset will be superior; gold, crypto, stock, land, guns, whatever. However, if a solar flare (or a bunch of nukes) take out all electronics, crypto won't do you much good. Likewise if the world collapses too far stocks and gold cannot be eaten; then only food, ammo and medicine will matter.

I'm certainly not expecting people to start shooting each other over bread in 2023, but the USA is not above the USSR in terms of implosion. The question is can we undo the "central planning" quickly enough that it doesn't hurt all-at-once.

---

A little more on-point to the original question: I'm in Salt Lake City as well, so I think MJ's observations will mimic my own. Seeing gas at $4.50/gallon here ($3.10 before this started), meat up 30-40%, cars very difficult to find and the house I bought in Sept 2020 for $620 is now suggested at $910k on Zillow/Redfin/etc. I just installed solar to basically never have an electric bill again, and I'm eying an EV as a possible next step.
 

MJ DeMarco

I followed the science; all I found was money.
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Within the last year, the price of purchasing a single-family home has increased by almost 30% and the price of monthly rent has increased by 58%.

Couple of takeaways... A) Your government is lying about real inflation numbers (gee, really?) especially when it housing and shelter is a human's biggest expense. A 58% increase in bread or milk, is not the same as a 58% increase for a roof over your head. and B) Looks like owning real estate with rental income has inflation protection.
 

MJ DeMarco

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My wife just got back from the store and texted this...
Screen Shot 2022-05-25 at 8.59.34 AM (3).png


And when we shop for daily necessities, we don't pay attention to the prices. But with inflation, I've started to pay attention, not because I'm looking to save, but I'm looking to get a better grasp on reality, not the "reality" put forth by the bureaucrats in DC.
 

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Putin will have maximum leverage come October time to cut Europe off.
I can't believe how utterly stupid european bureaucrats are with their freaking sanctions seriously. Putin has never made more money with his oil than now, selling it to India and friends (and rightfully so). He could unplug Europe tomorrow if he wanted. No energy means EVERYTHING stops. Total madness.

On top of this, until now we were paying our energy with worthless euros the ECB was printing in its basement, now we have to somehow find dollars to buy it elsewhere, against which the euro lost 15% in the last year. Absolute geniuses.
 
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