Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

[Silverfox148]

Amazon blew out its earnings, and sneakily mentioned that they will raise their Amazon Prime fee by 17%.

Netflix raised its subscription fees as well.



Yup, I mentioned this years ago ... it would be called the Ameridollar, and it will be owned by the central bank. Cash will be outlawed and all transactions monitored and recorded on the blockchain. And no, it won't involve BTC or ETH which ultimately, will be criminalized, the same BS they did for marijauna in the last 3 decades.

This Ameridollar/Amero has been theorized for a long time, I remember listening to this AM late night show called Coast to Coast AM a decade or more ago, and their guests predicted much of what is happening around us. The dollar is being deliberately trashed it would seem.

These guys were considered crackpots at the time but their predictions have been pretty accurate.

 

[GPM]

I just chatted with my parents today. Fuel in Calgary is up to $1.57 a liter for regular, when I left in late November it was about $1.30. This is the highest I have ever seen it here as we are oil country. I expect it to continue to rise as these lovely "carbon taxes" that are going to virtue signal Canada into prosperity instead tax us all to death. Oh, and our carbon tax is so awesome it also has GST (government service tax) on top of it. Because of the service we receive by being taxed... Thanks guys.

I got a fresh squeezed orange juice today. Price went from 20 to 25 pesos. Damnit!

 

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[MitchC]

I just chatted with my parents today. Fuel in Calgary is up to $1.57 a liter for regular, when I left in late November it was about $1.30. This is the highest I have ever seen it here as we are oil country. I expect it to continue to rise as these lovely "carbon taxes" that are going to virtue signal Canada into prosperity instead tax us all to death. Oh, and our carbon tax is so awesome it also has GST (government service tax) on top of it. Because of the service we receive by being taxed... Thanks guys.

I got a fresh squeezed orange juice today. Price went from 20 to 25 pesos. Damnit!

Is it inflation or more people moving there?

The same thing happened in Bali years ago, prices just kept going up as more and more foreigners moved and took holidays there as they would pay those prices.

Some of the major expat areas ended up being very similarly priced to Australia etc

 

[YanC]

A year ago, a family member asked me to do some research to define the price of a land lot his neighbor wanted to acquire from him. We settled on 100€ per square meter, which looked expensive at the time, and made the deal.

Yesterday, a friend of mine visited a land plot a few hundreds meters from this place. The seller asks for 225€ per square meter.

Yet inflation is "only" 6%... Yeah sure.

 

[Pete799p]

Prices are bananas in my town/biz (Commercial Real Estate). Here's a few highlights could go on for days. I'm not seeing any slowdown in pricing at the moment.

- 7500sf Strip center bid came in at $429/sf for just Core & Shell - this does not include land, soft costs like architectural, TI/leasing commissions etc. To pencil they'll need to get rent in the mid $40'snnn
- Gas MPD Pumps - pre-covid $19k now $25k+ with 180 day lead-times
- HVAC Units - just got quoted $20k for 10ton unit. Used to get these done for $8k-$10k precovid. Lead times are 90-180 days
- Whole food prices to the moon. Wholesale price 50lb bag of flower $20. Was $9. Prices for imports from Asia are even crazier. Case of coconut milk $94. Used to be $24.
- Contractor Bids - many now only holding bids for 1-2wks tops.

 

[tomzestatlu]

In previous days, oil had reached $2.5, now it has gone down a little bit (filling 50 liters car tank costs 10% of average mothly salary).
Exactly one year ago I bought old flat in small town, considered unatractive location and now I could sell it 40% higher (or more?).
Mortgage rates have tripled over last few months.
Utilities have gone up massively. My electricity tarrif has gone around 50-60%, but I think it will go even higher. Some households with different providers have seen rise by hundreds of percents.

I consider myself lucky that at this moment I´m responsible only for myself and I know how to live frugally.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Here's an article that says inflation has peaked, and deflation has started in some sectors.

Make your own judgments.

$SPX Inflation in several key areas is cooling -- yes it is

$SPX Inflation in several key areas is cooling -- yes it is

www.cmlviz.com

 

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[YoungPadawan]

Corn prices have almost doubled since 2020

Edit: scratch that, prices have more than doubled as of today

 

[RicardoGrande]

Russia just pegged the ruble to gold, the value of the ruble has essentially fully recovered. Russia is starting to push people to pay in rubles instead of USD.

From what I’m seeing, it looks like the US decisions to impose sanctions on Russia very well might be the straw that breaks the camels back and results in the decimation of the dollar. All fiat currencies eventually fail, and all the parts are in place for the USD to follow history.

Isn't Saudi Arabia already in talks to sell oil and develop refineries with china using transactions in renminbi/yuan?
Top that with india paying in roubles and only have to pay russia equiv of 41$ usd/barrel and the USD is in a... tough spot.

 

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[E-Sharp]

I’ve been thinking of making a thread about this.

Does anyone have any advice or guides on how to go about stocking up on food? What to buy, what to avoid etc.

I’m thinking I’ll just bulk buy what I normally eat so it doesn’t get wasted but I’m also thinking there’s legit going to be massive shortages so I’d also like to have a bit more of a smarter backup approach. Something that could last us a good while with nothing else.

Here are my recommendations based on work I've put into building my emergency stash which is currently about a 4 month supply for my household of 2 adults plus dog:

- buying what you actually eat is a great idea so you can rotate stock in and out before expiration dates. I think it would be hard enough during a crisis to adapt to the crisis itself without having to change eating habits, so that's another reason to buy what you already consume. For us that's a lot of canned legumes, canned fish, canned tomatoes, oats, pasta, and rice (white rice is less nutritious but can be stored longer than brown, so we normally buy brown rice to eat now but keep a stash of white in the emergency supplies). I also stock some canned and jarred soups, pasta sauces and any other canned items that I'd be willing to eat in a pinch. Hard crackers (Wasa type) can be used in place of fresh bread as they last a lot longer.

- I don't like canned vegetables, so I use dehydrated vegetables packed in mylar bags. you can find all kinds of dehydrated food and veg online. Or invest in a dehydrater (I have a dehydrater but it's too small for prepping larger quantities). You can also can stuff if you have a garden.

- Note that best buy dates on cans are not the same as expiration dates

- Have a good storage plan for perishable items - airtight containers with gamma lids are available on Amazon and elsewhere. You can also get mylar bags. And I think the LDS stores mentioned above actually sell some of their perishables such as flour in cans so the shelf life is much longer.

- don't forget condiments, spices etc. These usually have long shelf lives. The essentials in our house are hot sauces, mustard, honey, vinegars and oils, salt and pepper. I also consider jarred pickles and jalapeños etc to be part of this category.

- don't forget WATER, which also has to be rotated in and out. We keep 12 gallons which is realistically only several days worth for two people. We also keep canned veg and chicken broth which can be used to cook pasta etc. if water supplies are low. For the same reason we keep a stack of paper plates and disposable utensils so water isn't needed to clean dishes etc.

- Don't forget pets when planning. Canned sardines and rice double as backup dog food in our house.

- We mostly use Costco and Walmart Supercenter for bulk buys of most of these goods. Dollar Tree is even better though I don't usually eat the weird brands they sell -- but if you're going for cheapest, look at dollar stores.

 

[msufan]

The bigger question is who they will blame? These people are completely incapable of accepting responsibility, even partially, for anything. Take your pick for the blame... A) Trump B) Ukraine C) Corporate Greed D) Racism or E) Evil Rich People not paying "their fair share" --- or perhaps a combination of all of them.

Did you watch the video? If not, that's hilarious, because you called it: the entire video blames Putin and Russia for the inflation numbers.

 

[RicardoGrande]

I guess they can’t keep pretending it doesn’t exist…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513572691982405635

Man, really wish I hadn't seen this.

Some sectors seem to have peaked, but the whole clown car seems to keep speeding for the edge and no one wants to step in and take the right action due to the asset/debt bubbles.

On the note of all this, does anyone have some favored forum threads or general resources about navigating the retraction as a sole prop/freelancer and winning business or differentiating and thriving?
Going through Alex Hormozi's 100m dollar offers but anything helps.

 

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[Kevin88660]

Fifth straight month of 40-year high inflation...

When government reported figures are that bad, thing are indeed much worst than they are shown.

For older folks and fans of Economics history, we are probably entering the stagflation era. U.S. went through this in the late 60s and 70s.

Government were printing money because they though it could solve unemployment (Keynesian theories were popular). Unions went on strike and demanding high wages. Middle Eastern countries used oil embargo to punish west for supporting Israel. Record high inflation and commodity prices. Nixon removed dollar from gold backing.

 

[jdm667]

Fifth straight month of 40-year high inflation...

At 8.5% inflation per year, it only takes 8.5 years for prices to double (and thus for your buying power to get cut in half).

Don't worry though, the gasoline stimulus checks are probably on the way!

 

[Hong_Kong]

In my home market for RE, rates have gone up significantly. Home prices have been dropping, with some listings being slashed 20%. The most desirable listings are more or less unchanged for now. There are many anecdotal reports of people backing out of deals due to not being able to make the payments for the new rates (30 year fixed isn't really a thing here, everything more or less variable). People are fed up with the prices. More people are going to zoning meetings to try to push through more buildings.

In my target investment locations, nothing seems to have changed in terms of prices too much. (The city I target for RE investment has massive incoming investment, and new jobs etc.)

Used car prices have jumped significantly, my car has increased in price even after you account for the additional miles.

Industrial RE is in extremely short supply, I don't think this trend will reverse anytime soon due to increase of e-commerce (warehousing / 3PL space). I've also heard industrial is even harder to build in terms of zoning than residential.

For personal products, I've been fighting inflation by increasing the quantity of stuff I buy. That way if the price will likely increase, you have more stuff at the lower price.

Food inflation I predict will get much worse. With the war going on in Ukraine, food production and logistics is massively interrupted. Ukraine provides double digits percent of the worlds wheat supply. In the developing world, some countries get a majority of their imported calories from Ukraine. Africa could see mass starvation, and in turn increase prices on the shelf in the West.

 

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[Aditya Gunjal]

Indonesia just banned palm oil export, be ready for an increase in price for products based on it (Cosmetics, Cleaning products, Junk food...)

Yes they have stopped palm oil export and people in my country are thinking about importing it from malysia but it will not be sufficient

 

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[Jeannen]

Yes they have stopped palm oil export and people in my country are thinking about importing it from malysia but it will not be sufficient

Yeah, I was doing some research earlier today and it looks like India is gonna be affected very badly since there is no sunflower oil and soon no palm oil

 

[Jeannen]

Think about how Ukraine will make things worst even after the war end. I seen Zelensky promised his people that if their house is destroyed, they will rebuild it in TWO YEARS. If this would be true, think about how everything will be expensive + think how many people from Ukraine will go back there to rebuild their country. This mean less workers in EU, this mean less materials on the market, this mean extra troubles. Also how many companies from supporting countries will go there to build there and earn money. What it will mean for RE market? What if those companies will leave their countries to rebuild Ukr?

Think about all money printed for Ukraine help from EU and USA. Think about all new government contract for new arms and ammo as they need to fill everything which was shipped to Ukr. You were thinking steel was expensive last months?

Really I cannot even think how this can play out good in next couple of years or even months. If the war will even end soon, there will be even more problems to come... Not mentioned China 0 C19 policy and how it will soon impact the world. Is all that poor management in those hard times really a coincidence? Really people can act so badly on what is on their sight now?

Not to mention that since Ukraine will be under massive debts, since those « aids » have to be paid back with interests

When (if) situation cool down and don’t escalate in a WW3, there will be a massive drop of prices for the food industry (ukraine was a top exporter of cereal, sunflower oil, etc), but also probably an increase in price for steel, as it’s one of Ukraine top export, so as you said, they will have to rebuild everything and prices are likely going to explode

 

[Jeannen]

‘Companies are beginning to panic’: Experts say China’s lockdowns will make inflation and the supply chain nightmare even worse

Experts say China's lockdowns will lead to a supply chain crunch on the west coast of the U.S. in the coming weeks, adding to four-decade high inflation.

finance.yahoo.com

China still locking down after 2 years and every other countries moved on

Ukraine war

Food processing plants being burnt down

Yeah, tbh all that shit makes me want to move out of US for eCommerce lol
I think we're going to see big changes in world economics soon, those who will be able to adapt will have a huge advantage

 

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[farmer79]

Inflation is rampant and far worse then the government numbers.

My son says I am obsessed with Mayonnaise as I talk about the price of it to everyone. But to me it represents the out of control price increases happening. On February 4th I took the photo of the 1.42 liter container of mayo. The price of $10.49 was so outrageous and I would bring this up every time the subject of inflation came up in conversation. So I was in the same store this morning about 6 weeks later and the new price is $13.79. 30% inflation in 6 weeks for a jar of Mayonnaise. And that was after it was already outrageously priced.This is not going to end well.

Mayo inflation continues. I keep hearing we have passed peak inflation but the mayo doesn’t lie! $10.49 on Feb 4th, $13.79 on March 20th and now $14.49 today (May 7th).

 

[farmer79]

Canada. 1.42 litre. Milk dairy and eggs are always more expensive here because of a supply management system the government has for those products. So that is contributing a bit. However when it went over $10 in Feb that was completely outrageous. And now we are 50% higher. Costco would be cheaper for sure but they are 2.5 hrs away. We live in a somewhat remote part of Saskatchewan .

 

[MJ DeMarco]

UK's inflation rate hits 40 year high...

MSN

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

So something very interesting and I don’t know if it belongs in the inflation thread but thought I would put it here as it is a government/supply chain issue.

So I farm in Saskatchewan(Canada) and one of our tractors is a John Deere. We were having some issues with engines alerts that didn’t makes sense and the emissions system. The dealership has figured it is the ECU (Engine Control Unit) sort of the electronic brain of the engine. So our dealer didn’t have one in stock so they ordered one (i assume directly from John Deere, but I didn’t actually ask.)from the US. It was supposed to be here today and I got a call from the service manager that it is held up at the border. According to him they are now required to show some sort of proof to US customs that there is an actual tractor that requires this part not an attempt at the dealership to hoard parts. This is unbelievable and a sign that we seem to be devolving into a 1980’s Soviet Union style economy. Very concerning.

PS There is also the possibility that the dealership made a mistake and is telling me a tale to justify why the part is late. But I don’t think that is the case.

Comrade, your government is now rationing ... tractor parts.

Sick. Welcome to the world not of abundance, but of scarcity. Everything they touch turns to loss.

What's the opposite of excess? It's poverty, not "just enough."

 

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[CaptainAmerica]

It's the little things:
Sneakers, while holding their price... are unavailable in the color and size I want. The cost to adopt a dog went up 20% in the last 6 months. My favorite Italian pesto is unobtainable, unless I know someone traveling to Europe. First world problems, yes. But also, part of a trend.

 

[msufan]

Also, Amazon inflation surcharge.

Increases my fees by $.15 per unit. Drops my profit by $40k!!!! Do I raise my prices $.15?

View attachment 43571

I think the answer is yes, you do raise your prices 15 cents. It would be expected in this environment.

 

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[msufan]

It's kind of hard to go from $19.99 to $20.14. There's always that ceiling that you try to stay under.

this is true -- good call

 

[msufan]

The government numbers have been a lie since the 1980's. The problem is that the government started using inflation measurements to create a target, which results in the metric being manipulated so the number gives the target the government wants. This is called Goodhart's Law. Goodhart's law - Wikipedia

I do not personally pay any attention to official government data like the CPI, because the calculation is constantly being manipulated. Instead I use the shadow stats site which calculates current inflation and other parameters based on the historical methods from when these metrics were established.

Alternate Inflation Charts

www.shadowstats.com

Based on shadow stats, current inflation is about 17-18% if calculated using 1980's methods. This seems to be more in line with the real world experience that I am seeing.

Remember that inflation data is presented year over year, so since 2020 cumulative inflation is well over 25-30% according to shadow stats.

Another worrying thing to me, based on shadow stats, is that GDP has been negative since 2020. To me when I look at this there is a significant chance that this is the lead point of a prolonged financial depression. I sure hope not, but it's hard for me to look at the current state of the economy, true unemployment, and other factors and not see that we are on the precipice of something possibly on order of the great depression.

For the first time in my life, at the beginning of end of April I 100% devested from all my stocks at went 100% to cash, there is just too much risk in the market at the moment for me. I could easily miss out on some bump, but at least I'm protected on the downside which I think really is the bigger risk at the moment. I am still trading options and also dabbling in commodities futures cautiously (since this is new territory to me), but I'm able to play both directions of the market with options and can profit from inflation with commodity futures.

Great post. I just can't see how people will make it when costs have gone up 25-30% over the past two years. Stimulus payments and the like bailed people out for a time, but it sure feels like a massive crisis is coming. My concern is that people won't just tighten their belts in a healthy way, but that they will look to the government to bail them out again, exacerbating the problem.

 

[JordanK]

Inflation hitting me where it hurts :'(

 

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[Andy Black]

Any other SMBs or freelanders having a tough time mentally dealing with the controlled implosion of the economy?

Sure the money is hyperinflating, but the supply chain issues coupled with the market starting to grind to a halt is making a lot of the SMB owners I've reached out to rather non-commital about doing business.
I had a simple yet robust system to planned out to be able to take my web design full time over the summer, with the way the sphincter of the market tightened these past two weeks, it looks like I'll have to triple my effort just to see the same touchbacks I was seeing in march. Not the easiest thing to handle considering my dayjob eats up my valuable time in a saturnian way

I suppose this is just a challenge to develop better outreach and better value propositions, more opportunity to overdeliver; just wonder why all this adversity had to happen now, and for almost no reason except a TON of poor governmental decisions coming to a head this year.

Grain futures are still skyrocketing, started stocking up on cans of food in march and have a canner coming in. At the very least, I have 170 cans of sardines and tuna for the fall famine

Which businesses will want or need more from their website when people tighten their belts?

Which businesses will thrive when people tighten their belts?

 

[JordanK]

I’d rather live in a VW camper van and be able to get away from the maddening crowds!

Lots of van conversion videos going viral here in Ireland at the moment. Mainly for tourism purposes during the summer but I know of a few students renting parking spaces in front of houses in the city to live in their vans Monday-Friday (4 nights). Then they spend the weekends back at their parents houses. Crazy stuff!

 

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