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AroundTheWorld

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I'm calling a "top" in real estate western Montana as well... In the last month, we have started to see a few price reductions, longer time on market, fewer under contract, more active listing. While at the same time, also seeing crazy behavior. One house on down the road from me listed for $725,000. Nothing for 30 days. They took it off the market and relisted it 3 days later for $849,000. Its been another 30 days, and its still active.
 

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I'm calling a "top" in real estate western Montana as well... In the last month, we have started to see a few price reductions, longer time on market, fewer under contract, more active listing. While at the same time, also seeing crazy behavior. One house on down the road from me listed for $725,000. Nothing for 30 days. They took it off the market and relisted it 3 days later for $849,000. Its been another 30 days, and its still active.
What does a $849k house in Montana look like? Lots of acreage?

Here in MA $849k for a house is fairly common, but almost all of them I scoff at the idea of paying almost 7 figures for. It’s absurd. It’s interesting too, some towns in the area that have always been “wealthy” have not seen the same valuation explosion as their neighboring towns. Middle class area home values are the ones that have seem to have exploded to upper middle class/upper class values.
 

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I've been raising my residential rents for the last couple of months. I had a guy here in my office a few minutes ago having a fit about his rent raise I did last summer. He wants his lowered back down and I said no. He says he's moving, but he didn't want to give me a 30 day notice -- until he goes out and looks for another place. I told him, "Good luck." I am 100% full, with a long waiting list. That means that my rents are too low.
 

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I just want to say, for those of us who don’t own any large amount of assets or are otherwise broke AF...

The Fastlane is more important now than ever...
 

AroundTheWorld

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I've been raising my residential rents for the last couple of months. I had a guy here in my office a few minutes ago having a fit about his rent raise I did last summer. He wants his lowered back down and I said no. He says he's moving, but he didn't want to give me a 30 day notice -- until he goes out and looks for another place. I told him, "Good luck." I am 100% full, with a long waiting list. That means that my rents are too low.
I had an owner raise residential rents in his 3/2 units by $400/mo. Tenants complained but they all stayed.
 

AroundTheWorld

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What does a $849k house in Montana look like? Lots of acreage?
It depends on the town. Bozeman is an anomaly in Montana, turning into the Jackson Hole of Wyoming. With expensive real estate.

850k in Bozeman will get you a basic sfr... 3 bedrooms or so, older, newer, fixer upper, it doesn't matter.

Elsewhere in the western part of the state you could possible get a little acerage. I'm not familiar with real estate in the eastern part.
 

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Here in RI, home prices are up 50+% in three years. I’ve heard lots of unbridled optimism from real estate agents, which worries me that at 2008 style crash could be imminent.
Work wise, we have supply line issues with automotive oil filters right now due to labor “shortages” in manufacturing and transportation. At least that’s what the vendor reps say. This is domestically made stuff.

Theft of catalytic converters is at an all time (in my career) high. OE replacements for the most common Honda converters are on national back order.
 

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I was at a presentation by the SC Ports Authority, and they said that cargo container shipping costs from China are up from $2,500-3,000 pre-pandemic to about $21,000. If you're shipping furniture and other low-margin goods, you can't eat that cost. They also said that Target is behind on their inventory by over $2B- pre-C0VlD, they would be concerned about having 4% of their goods out of stock, and people would get fired if they hit over 6%.

The other week, they hit over 45%... it's insane. So many trickle down effects, and the sad fact is that they money printing by the Fed and stimulus checks are going to hurt the poorest people the most in the long run. The dual mandate of the Fed is really one mandate- they are no longer controlling the money supply.
 

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I was at a presentation by the SC Ports Authority, and they said that cargo container shipping costs from China are up from $2,500-3,000 pre-pandemic to about $21,000. If you're shipping furniture and other low-margin goods, you can't eat that cost. They also said that Target is behind on their inventory by over $2B- pre-C0VlD, they would be concerned about having 4% of their goods out of stock, and people would get fired if they hit over 6%.

The other week, they hit over 45%... it's insane. So many trickle down effects, and the sad fact is that they money printing by the Fed and stimulus checks are going to hurt the poorest people the most in the long run. The dual mandate of the Fed is really one mandate- they are no longer controlling the money supply.
Here in Alaska, we ship just about everything in. And the store's shelves are empty, empty, empty... Our supply chains are broken. And your right about the shipping. Reportedly, shipments from China went from $3,500 per 40' Conex to $31,000 or $32,000 in a little bit over a week. That's going to cause a lot of other supply chains to break. But, it will hurt China a lot worse than it will hurt the USA in the long term. A lot of jobs and industries are going to be killed there as they are moved to other locations.
 

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which worries me that at 2008 style crash could be imminent.

I don't think so.

I think it will only level and stagnate for a few years.

In 2008 money was easy, all you had to do was apply, lie, and sign your name. Boom, instant loan.

Today's underwriting for mortgage money is extremely stringent and a lot of the fraud loopholes have been closed.
 

daivey

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im reading about all these supply shortages but im not seeing it...

am I just lucky to live in a major city?

what's going on
 

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Kind of. Real estate on average is barely better than inflation. If you include renting out your real estate, thats now a business in itself and not just investing your money. I think we all agree business is the best!
At times I can make over 200% per year on real estate. If you go purchase single family homes at market rate, it may perform as you expect. But, good investors know how to kick the returns.
 

WJK

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im reading about all these supply shortages but im not seeing it...

am I just lucky to live in a major city?

what's going on
When I go to Walmart and half of the shelves are empty. This week they had no eggs and almost no milk. Also, the pasta isle was almost empty. I need some distilled water for my iron. I haven't found a gallon of that yet anywhere in town. But, I'm going again this afternoon to see what they have gotten shipped in...

I wen to Home Depot this week to buy a stock window for a rental. Most of those shelves are empty. I had to buy the size that they had and adapt the window opening. I needed an electrical box. Those shelves were half empty. I bought what they had and adapted it. I needed some adjustable saddles for pouring sauna tubes and the tubes. I ran to Home Depot and 2 local hardware stores to find them. The pallet of ready-mix had to be brought down from Anchorage. Last time I bought a bunk (294 pieces ) of 8' studs, they were $3.13 each. This time I paid $8.48 each and got 2 other bids up to $11 per stick. I bought the last kitchen range at the appliance store, like I usually buy. They don't know when they have more in. And that's just for the common stuff. I have to order in any specialized items -- especially parts for appliances and equipment.
 

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When I go to Walmart and half of the shelves are empty. This week they had no eggs and almost no milk. Also, the pasta isle was almost empty. I need some distilled water for my iron. I haven't found a gallon of that yet anywhere in town. But, I'm going again this afternoon to see what they have gotten shipped in...

I wen to Home Depot this week to buy a stock window for a rental. Most of those shelves are empty. I had to buy the size that they had and adapt the window opening. I needed an electrical box. Those shelves were half empty. I bought what they had and adapted it. I needed some adjustable saddles for pouring sauna tubes and the tubes. I ran to Home Depot and 2 local hardware stores to find them. The pallet of ready-mix had to be brought down from Anchorage. Last time I bought a bunk (294 pieces ) of 8' studs, they were $3.13 each. This time I paid $8.48 each and got 2 other bids up to $11 per stick. I bought the last kitchen range at the appliance store, like I usually buy. They don't know when they have more in. And that's just for the common stuff. I have to order in any specialized items -- especially parts for appliances and equipment.

How close is your nearest large city?
 

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When I go to Walmart and half of the shelves are empty. This week they had no eggs and almost no milk. Also, the pasta isle was almost empty. I need some distilled water for my iron. I haven't found a gallon of that yet anywhere in town. But, I'm going again this afternoon to see what they have gotten shipped in...

I wen to Home Depot this week to buy a stock window for a rental. Most of those shelves are empty. I had to buy the size that they had and adapt the window opening. I needed an electrical box. Those shelves were half empty. I bought what they had and adapted it. I needed some adjustable saddles for pouring sauna tubes and the tubes. I ran to Home Depot and 2 local hardware stores to find them. The pallet of ready-mix had to be brought down from Anchorage. Last time I bought a bunk (294 pieces ) of 8' studs, they were $3.13 each. This time I paid $8.48 each and got 2 other bids up to $11 per stick. I bought the last kitchen range at the appliance store, like I usually buy. They don't know when they have more in. And that's just for the common stuff. I have to order in any specialized items -- especially parts for appliances and equipment.
People really underestimate the extent to which a store like Walmart has improved people’s lives.

If every Walmart was just “deleted” all of a sudden, many people would even die of starvation.
 

Thoelt53

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im reading about all these supply shortages but im not seeing it...

am I just lucky to live in a major city?

what's going on
I live 10 mins outside Boston. Food shortages aren’t bad yet, although depending on the week some departments seem to lack more than others. There have been a few times where beef is scarce, but it seems to rebound within a couple days.

Building materials are where we’re seeing real shortages. And it doesn’t matter if the product is sourced from Canada, China or Mexico. A major wood door supplier of ours, probably the largest in the US, can’t adequately acquire their lumber materials. And they own their own forests.

Car dealership lots are almost empty. I’ve heard this is nationwide, have you not seen this?

In my industry it seems as though the materials are available, but the lead times are off the charts. Everything slows to a dribble.

I’m fairly certain a lot of it has to do with the labor shortage, although there are definitely material shortages, I’ve been trying to simply hire two people for a year with no success. Most companies we work with are having the same problem. Luckily the unemployment BS ends next month.

What city do you live in? I’m surprised to hear you say you haven’t experience any shortages. Boston is usually pretty insulated against recessions and supply problems. When asswipe flu hit in March/April 2020 and people were buying insane amounts of TP, we lagged probably 3 weeks here before TP was gone from the shelves.
 
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pat9000

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I live in Nashville and I travel all across Tennessee. I'm seeing housing prices in crappy little backroads town at 300k for 3 bed 2 ba. Makes 0 sense logically. Real estate up about 100% in last 3 years here. My house I own now up about 70%.
 

WJK

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How close is your nearest large city?
I am 13 miles from a city of 5,000 and 30 miles from a town of 8,000.
I am 203 miles from Anchorage -- a 4 hour journey one way (during the summer) through a major mountain range. Part of the road is so narrow and winding that it is 35 miles per hour. During the winter it can take 6 or 7 hours one way due to the ice and snow, if it is passable at all. I must call first to see -- since there are some avalanche areas and often white out blizzards. A lot of stuff has to either be done or purchased in Anchorage since it is the major port and center of commerce.
 

WJK

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People really underestimate the extent to which a store like Walmart has improved people’s lives.

If every Walmart was just “deleted” all of a sudden, many people would even die of starvation.
I love having my Walmart. I have a friend who runs them down. I keep having to explain to her what they mean to an area like mine. I have several tenants who work for Walmart.

BUT, all the Sam's Clubs have shut down in Alaska. I used to go to the one in Anchorage for a lot of my business supplies. Now all we have is a Costco located in Anchorage and Fairbanks. (Fairbanks is 12 hours north) I get to go there to shop at Costco each time I go to Anchorage.
 

GIlman

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Kind of . I am talking about index funds like VTSAX or S&P500, not individual stocks or small funds. Past performance can't guarantee future performance but data of 100+ years is as good a guarantee as you are gonna get. It's at minimum no less of a guarantee than predicting real estate either. Every single boom and bust there are people that say its different this time. To their credit, IT IS different every time, but it always ends the same. A boom that goes for an unpredictable length of time, then a bust, which is followed by a boom again. Human ingenuity continues and the economy rebounds and grows. The next best thing to owning a business is having a steak in others businesses! As long as your time horizon is decades and you don't need your investment money tomorrow, history shows that it doesn't matter what the market is doing. Even putting in money at the worst times in history (lets say bottom of great depression) leads to a positive portfolio in real terms 10 years later and a spectacular one decades later. If the stock market doesn't keep growing over the long term, we have much more serious issues and your real estate bet aint worth it's weight either.

Volatility is high, but volatility doesn't mean risk in actual loss. Just temporary fluctuations. The key is only to use money that you don't need to touch for 10 years or longer (or have a calculated withdrawal plan ahead of time). If you can't stomach temporary low's then the market isn't for you. But then I have no idea what you can do with your money to prevent it being eaten alive by inflation. Real estate also comes with risks and volatility. Wait till the idiots in charge decide rent control everywhere is great or the CDC declarers a public health emergency on poverty and does another eviction moratorium lol

Historically the stock market has done very well, I’m skeptical that it can show returns like it has in the past very long into the future. Given current economic conditions we could easily enter a depression and stocks can be depressed for decades.

Here is why, prior to 2000, if companies were unprofitable they failed. When this happened significantly in the market there was a recession where bad companies went out of business and their assets and book of business was bought by a good company. In 2000 during the dot com bust the fed swooped in lowering rates and bailed out lots of companies.

Again in 2008 the fed jumped in, pumped the maker full of cash, and propped up the market.

This resulted in a bunch of zombie companies, that did not have profits that survived on debt accumulation.

In 2020 this process accelerated and now about 1/5 publicly traded companies are zombie companies that exist because the fed is buying corporate bonds and injecting basically free (near zero interest) into the market. These companies would go bankrupt without government cash infusion. The total debt load is around $3 trillion dollars.

There is also a massive amount of leverage in the stock market, cryptos, and paper commodity markets.

With all of these factors in play, one prick could bring pain in the markets like we have never seen before. The fed has been burning up it’s available tools, so we are on a much bigger cliff than we were in 2000, and then in 2008.

On top of this we are experiencing rapid inflation, and the only way to fight inflation is dramatic increases in interest and to slow the velocity that money is turning over.

But there is the run, killing inflation will cause conditions where leveraged positions have margin calls. Zombie companies won’t be able to borrow money at near zero interest to float operations.

The fed has but 2 real options left in the next crisis, negative interest rates where you actually pay companies to borrow money, and direct stock purchases to prop up stock prices. Everything else is already deployed.

It’s impossible to predict when the pin will prick the bubble, bubbles can go on much longer than one would expect, but when it pops there is ample fuel to drive the market into a full on depression.

Right now my portfolio is heavy in land, commodities, and highly profitable, high dividend paying stocks that are super boring but have no real completion and are difficult to compete with. These companies may lose stock price value, but so long as they are able to continue returning dividends, it’s better than following a stock down hoping it will rebound as the only way to recoup some capital for reinvestment.

I also have a fair bit, maybe 30% in cash. When the markets do crash, whenever that is, I want capital to work with if rare opportunities present. Yes cash has inflation risk, but if the markets do tumble it gives me options without liquidating assets I’m a fire sale to try and but something else.

One interesting commodity play, is gold streaming and royalty companies. Read up on these to understand why they will be hugely profitable if gold sees an outsized rise in price.

Remember, wealth does not evaporate, it just shifts between different classes of assets. Money is just a medium of exchange for purchase, it has no REAL value, wealth is control of assets.
 
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WJK

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I went shopping today at Walmart. There was some milk... no eggs... very little meat... and many of the shelves were notably empty. Thank goodness I have huge pantry and 3 freezers. We're fishing for salmon right now to put up for winter. Soon, we'll be hunting for our winter meats. We never run short on food because I keep a lot of food and supplies on hand. When C0VlD hit, we had toilet paper -- while the shelves at the stores had none for weeks. I know how tender our supply chains are here. I plan for problems and disruptions.

Business wise, I keep repair kits for most of the problems we have with our rentals. We keep extra parts and building materials on hand. This time, with the C0VlD, the problems have just run longer than normal. I'm used to major storms, earthquakes, and volcanoes that stop everything for a time, but this has gone on and on. So, I have a policy. If I see something that we use, I buy extra to put into our stock pile. I bought an another Conex for storing the extra stock.

I have been preparing for this moment for years. When everyone around me (other property owners) were go, go, go, and using leverage like crazy, I was doing debt reduction. While they were purchasing more properties, I was padding my emergency fund and working on upping my PGI (potential gross income). They treated me like a red headed, unloved, step child at family reunion. They told how stupid I was. I just didn't understand how to make money in real estate. Now, with the problem brought on by C0VlD, I'm suddenly brilliant. They're coming to me for advice. Go figure.
 

WJK

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Historically the stock market has done very well, I’m skeptical that it can show returns like it has in the past very long into the future. Given current economic conditions we could easily enter a depression and stocks can be depressed for decades.

Here is why, prior to 2000, if companies were unprofitable they failed. When this happened significantly in the market there was a recession where bad companies went out of business and their assets and book of business was bought by a good company. In 2000 during the dot com bust the fed swooped in lowering rates and bailed out lots of companies.

Again in 2008 the fed jumped in, pumped the maker full of cash, and propped up the market.

This resulted in a bunch of zombie companies, that did not have profits that survived on debt accumulation.

In 2020 this process accelerated and now about 1/5 publicly traded companies are zombie companies that exist because the fed is buying corporate bonds and injecting basically free (near zero interest) into the market. These companies would go bankrupt without government cash infusion. The total debt load is around $3 trillion dollars.

There is also a massive amount of leverage in the stock market, cryptos, and paper commodity markets.

With all of these factors in play, one prick could bring pain in the markets like we have never seen before. The fed has been burning up it’s available tools, so we are on a much bigger cliff than we were in 2000, and then in 2008.

On top of this we are experiencing rapid inflation, and the only way to fight inflation is dramatic increases in interest and to slow the velocity that money is turning over.

But there is the run, killing inflation will cause conditions where leveraged positions have margin calls. Zombie companies won’t be able to borrow money at near zero interest to float operations.

The fed has but 2 real options left in the next crisis, negative interest rates where you actually pay companies to borrow money, and direct stock purchases to prop up stock prices. Everything else is already deployed.

It’s impossible to predict when the pin will prick the bubble, bubbles can go on much longer than one would expect, but when it pops there is ample fuel to drive the market into a full on depression.

Right now my portfolio is heavy in land, commodities, and highly profitable, high dividend paying stocks that are super boring but have no real completion and are difficult to compete with. These companies may lose stock price value, but so long as they are able to continue returning dividends, it’s better than following a stock down hoping it will rebound as the only way to recoup some capital for reinvestment.

I also have a fair bit, maybe 30% in cash. When the markets do crash, whenever that is, I want capital to work with if rare opportunities present. Yes cash has inflation risk, but if the markets do tumble it gives me options without liquidating assets I’m a fire sale to try and but something else.

One interesting commodity play, is gold streaming and royalty companies. Read up on these to understand why they will be hugely profitable if gold sees an outsized rise in price.

Remember, wealth does not evaporate, it just shifts between different classes of assets. Money is just a medium of exchange for purchase, it has no REAL value, wealth is control of assets.
And here's another factor. The RE market used to be funded through private money in the Savings and Loan Associations and the Thrift Associations. That all changed in the 1990s when they went broke during a commercial RE market melt down. And we had 15% to 18% of the housing market funded through the secondary market -- Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, etc. Now almost all of the commercial market are funded through the securities sold on the stock market and bonds. About 70% to 80% of housing market debt is sold to the secondary market, which is also on the stock market. SO, this time, the stock market and bond market are totally on the hook for any RE melt-down. And knowing what I know about the RE markets, it could be major!
Edit -- and Biden extended the eviction moratorium yesterday without extended the moratorium on foreclosures -- which means that property owners cannot evict tenants but they can be foreclosed on for not making their payments. Go figure.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Edit -- and Biden extended the eviction moratorium yesterday without extended the moratorium on foreclosures -- which means that property owners cannot evict tenants but they can be foreclosed on for not making their payments. Go figure.

Ah yes, another systematic tool for "wealth redistribution" -- take from those evil rich people, and give it to those poor folks down on their luck who can't afford the newest iPhone and the latest X-Box release.
 

daivey

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When I go to Walmart and half of the shelves are empty. This week they had no eggs and almost no milk. Also, the pasta isle was almost empty. I need some distilled water for my iron. I haven't found a gallon of that yet anywhere in town. But, I'm going again this afternoon to see what they have gotten shipped in...

I wen to Home Depot this week to buy a stock window for a rental. Most of those shelves are empty. I had to buy the size that they had and adapt the window opening. I needed an electrical box. Those shelves were half empty. I bought what they had and adapted it. I needed some adjustable saddles for pouring sauna tubes and the tubes. I ran to Home Depot and 2 local hardware stores to find them. The pallet of ready-mix had to be brought down from Anchorage. Last time I bought a bunk (294 pieces ) of 8' studs, they were $3.13 each. This time I paid $8.48 each and got 2 other bids up to $11 per stick. I bought the last kitchen range at the appliance store, like I usually buy. They don't know when they have more in. And that's just for the common stuff. I have to order in any specialized items -- especially parts for appliances and equipment.
i live in Toronto - major city in Canada.

I've heard that car inventory is low. But no food shortages here. Meat aisle is full. Can get anything I want no issue. Price is reasonable too. Hell they still have their flyer sales on meat.

so either it's gonna hit us like a ton of bricks, or the cities are being insulated from these shortages.
 

WJK

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i live in Toronto - major city in Canada.

I've heard that car inventory is low. But no food shortages here. Meat aisle is full. Can get anything I want no issue. Price is reasonable too. Hell they still have their flyer sales on meat.

so either it's gonna hit us like a ton of bricks, or the cities are being insulated from these shortages.
This is the summer of NO rental cars here in Alaska. I have a man coming in to rent one of my sleeping room in the back part of my office building. He'll be working at the refinery up the highway from us. He's having a pick-up truck brought up to him in Anchorage at the airport so he'll have something to drive for his contract time. Normally he could just pick up a rental car /truck at the airport. He said that none were available. And I've heard that story all summer from a bunch of people. Usually, the car rental companies sell off their fleets after the summer season, and purchase new vehicles the following spring for the next season. They sold off everything they had last fall, but haven't been able to replace that fleet.
 

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Here is some more visual representation on how much the cost of shipping containers has gone up:
View: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1423360581256597506/photo/1


Better stock up on those TVs and Xboxes!

Joking aside, I'm very conflicted on what to do with a low mid 6 figure pile of cash.

Why are rates sky high? I mean oil costs are not at a multiple neatly that high. Is it simply demand? Or is it just that the supply of ships crossing is low?
 

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MARKETPLACE Not sure how to start? This free book will teach you how to build a successful web design business
Hi Fox. Starting the book and got through the introduction. Had a conversation with Andy Black...
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MARKETPLACE You Are One Call Away From Living Your Dream Life - LightHouse’s Accountability Program ⚡
Chris is super sharp and is aware of many facets of entrepreneurship and can help get your...
Introducing MJ's Personal Unscripted Network, Join Now for FREE!
Any chance to make it available outside of US? It has been available outside of the US on...

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