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HOT TOPIC Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

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MJ DeMarco

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:

I've extracted some of the posts from the other INFLATION thread -- please use this thread to POST YOUR EXPERIENCE in your area/country/city of higher prices.

The mainstream narrative is that inflation is under control -- I contend that it is running in the double-digits and as always, the media and their sycophants are lying.

Of course, if you have a local experience of LOWER PRICES, feel free to post that too.

The only place I've found lower prices are in consumer electronics like televisions. Got make that propaganda easily accessible!
 

PeterBoss

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I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl:



Which means absolutely nothing.

When government/politicians who make the laws are not subject to their laws, allowing themselves to go bankrupt would be seen as a means to an end to leverage the crisis for more power, and likely a new fiat debt scheme. Simply put, Kings and Queens will allow whatever they want to happen because in the end, they're the ones the hold the puppet strings. People who control the rigged game won't allow themselves to be the losers.

Kinda like arbitrarily releasing and ending all student loan debts simply because you find it prudent to do so.

They'd do the same for themselves.

I'm guessing the end game here is a massive crisis resulting into the emergence of a new fiat while bitcoin would undergo either a ban, or a massive government regulation to take it over - Americans and Canadians!! Introducing, the New Ameridollar! Exchange 1000 of your old dollars, for 1 new Ameridollar! Stores will no longer accept your old USD starting Jan 1, 2023! Convert your dollars now!
As someone who lived a fair share of time in South America, I've seen this happen. I've also seen what 40-50% inflation means.
This is EXACTLY how it goes down. They just scratch a bunch of zeroes from the former currency, call the new one a fancier name and, of course, profit from all the suckers that were holding either the currency or any kind of credit denominated in it.
Which goes again to what we were discussing above: as long as you are able to hold anything different than the devaluated currency, then you'll be a winner. If you had outrageous levels of debt in said currency, you'll also be a winner as you will be able to pay it back at a heavy discount.
For eg. If you had 1000 sh*t coins at 1 USD, you now have 1M Ameridollars and if you had a debt for 1000 USD, you now only owe 1 Ameridollar, which should be relatively easy to pay with your sh*t coins.
You'll also be able to buy A LOT of defaulted assets from people, as not all debt is denominated in the now defunct currency and not all interest rates are fixed (specially inflation adjusted loans will be FUBAR).

Having said all of the above, inflation at the beginning always boosts the financial markets, as people try to park their money anywhere other than their wallets. Eventually it hurts companies, as there is no real growth and they start 'underperforming' expectations.

Guess we'll have to wait and see. As the saying goes: markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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So, is there a safe place to store a bunch of cash?

I'm looking to dump cash into a large property that I can deem my primary residence, not as an investment, but merely as an insurance policy. If I get caught buying at the top, I don't mind losing a few million since it will be home I plan to live in for the rest of my life.

Unfortunately, here's just a little insight into how CRAZY the RE market is.

Saw a house in SLC that came up for sale. Mind you, it was listed for $4.8M and these higher price ranges (at least in the past) tend to stay on the market for a few weeks. It was a bit out of my budget but I'm chomping at the bit to unwind cash so I decided I would go look at it. Before I could even book a flight and get more details on it, it went Under Contract.

Even in these high prices ranges, houses are flying off the market. Bidding wars are not happening just at the $500K level, it is now transpiring in the mid-7 figure range.

In similar vain, I saw houses that didn't sell two years ago listed @ $2M now being relisted at $3.5M. Why not? If you can make $1.5M doing nothing in two years, can you blame them? But inflation is well contained.
 

Envision

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Talking about inflation... Im in Idaho, probably the gnarliest housing market in the country.

I almost bought this POS warehouse for 3M last year, owner got called feet... Sold it 1 day on market this past week for 4M... 3m was absolutely batshit

The house I bought last March for 230 I could sell tomorrow for 530.

Houses go 50-100k over asking with 10+ offers within the first week here. Im not exaggerating.

Own assets.... businesses, crypto, real estate, stocks. Cash is literally 50% more worthless than it was a year ago
 
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MJ DeMarco

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A 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%.

LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.
 

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IMO, that's a big contributor (as well as low interest rates) but not the driving factor.

Labor and material costs are through the roof. I'm trying to build a custom home in Sedona (all while trying to buy RE out-of-state - what a shitshow) and the price to build have gone up nearly 400,000 since we started the project. My floor plan hasn't changed in those 10 months. So to your point, not only is the supply short in existing inventory, but supply is short all through the material supply chain, including the labor.



Yikes.

But the Federal Reserve disagrees with you!
As does all those articles on CNBC!

Why do you believe the data that's right in front of your eyes? Don't you know thinking for yourself is dangerous?

Just because a 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%. LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.


Inflation a out of control.
In Australia:

Cars cost an extra $5000 on average. I bought mine for $6,000 a few years ago. I was looking to upgrade and that same car I bought for $6,000 now sells for $8000!

To get something decent im looking at $15,000 pfft just keeping the car.

Housing in my town went up from $340,000 for a unit to now $400,000+ merely a few months later.

Petrol is up 30c litre.
Some food is up more than 50%.

But DW everyone, there is no inflation!
 

biggeemac

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Yep, my builder had to have the floor joists re-engineered on my house because lvl's are unavailable. Something about the glues needed to manufacture the lvl's being unavailable.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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What's happening in your area with respect to prices?

Food?
Housing?
Cost of Living?
Repair services?

Let's here some ground reports.
 

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Is there any reliable expert source for calculating real inflation??

Someone has an independent tracker of the price of the top 500 house hold items before - is that link still around??
 

Antifragile

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A 2X4 from Home Depot now costs $6.94 when it cost $2.84 just a few years ago doesn't mean inflation is 244%.

LOL, according to gangsters in Jackson Hole, it's only 1.5%.
MJ,

Lumber is more expensive because C0VlD curbed production and distribution networks. All products are rising in prices because of this.

RE (one could argue) is going up because people are going out less, eating at home (it's a pandemic after all), buying fewer suits (while working from home) etc. Meaning that consolidation of capital combined with unprecedented stimulus and central banks printing money is creating availability of cheap credit.

Yes, it should be inflationary in nature. But it is not guaranteed to be so. The other way out of the box is through GDP growth, increase in production and productivity.

The question is - which one is more probable? Unfortunately, I think inflation is a more probable outcome. I am not sure I'd go as far as hyperinflation. Having lived (in another country) through it, I think the good old regular inflation will do just fine!
 
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1. Renting a room in Brussels for students (or anyone else for that matter): +22%

Last year, you'd have prices averaging 450 euros per month, especially in apartments where you'd have several rooms. Now, these are priced at 550 euros a month. I have seen rooms for 680 euros - ROOMS, NOT STUDIOS - in Brussels, which is insane. I know people renting for 550+ euros rooms in a 7-bedrooms houses.

The spike in prices arrived after the quarantine, in a time when the demand is actually LOWER for rooms.

Go figure.

When I was studying in Rotterdam, rents DOUBLED in-between 2015 and 2018, and the whole RE took 30%.

I had warned my mother who was looking to invest that it was going to happen, but she hadn't believed me. Too bad for her.

2. Phones and computers: -?%

Xiaomi has made an AMOLED screen phone for less than 200 euros. I feel smartphones keep on getting cheaper. Not computers, though.

In 2014, I bought a Lenovo laptop, 15 inches screen, core i3 processor, HD screen for 395 euros. 7 years later, the beast is still running.

I bought a new laptop in July 2020. AMD Ryzen 5 (4000 series), 13 inches screen. Price tag: 700 euros. It's a much better and faster computer, but I would have probably paid the likes of 550-600 euros for such machine in 2014. Inflation: +21%

3. Food: +18% on average


About one year ago, my Carrefour (Walmart equivalent) ran a giant advertising campaign. DECREASE OF PRICES ON 1000 PRODUCTS. And it was true. My bacon went from 2.5 euros to 2.3 or so.

No less than two weeks later, that same bacon had gone up to 2.9 euros.

I don't know if you want to compute the increase from 2.5 or 2.3 onward since this strategy had been duly planned by the company, so let's do both: 16% and 26% respectively.

My meat package I used to buy for 34 euros went to 39 a couple of weeks after I had noticed it to be unusually cheap (must have been November 2019). It remained steady since, but they replaced the burgers they were giving out with some other stuff I don't remember. +14%

4. Bitcoin: +833%


Lmao


Conclusion:

Despite the signs, I am not convinced that inflation is here to stay.
I am still persuaded we are headed for deflation long-term because we won't be able to sustain equal level of consumption as production per capita is not increasing fast enough. China is done selling stuff on the cheap which will drive prices up, preventing even more people than before from buying. WHen you produce and no one buys your stuff, you whether stop producing, which creates deflation at the beginning of the supply chain, or you decrease your prices.

The RE market (in Brussels at least) will crash and the impact will be stronger than the asteroid's that killed dinosaurs.

A lot of people will lose their jobs in the post-corona world (in the HORECA especially). Growth stopped a long-time ago in the western developed countries. People are not having babies to sustain/increase consumption. And they become warier and warier of conspicuous consumption.

I don't really know where we are headed, but one constant seems clear. Whether prices inflate or deflate, purchasing power of slowlaners will decrease.
 

KAIZOS

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MJ,

Lumber is more expensive because C0VlD curbed production and distribution networks. All products are rising in prices because of this.

RE (one could argue) is going up because people are going out less, eating at home (it's a pandemic after all), buying fewer suits (while working from home) etc. Meaning that consolidation of capital combined with unprecedented stimulus and central banks printing money is creating availability of cheap credit.

Yes, it should be inflationary in nature. But it is not guaranteed to be so. The other way out of the box is through GDP growth, increase in production and productivity.

The question is - which one is more probable? Unfortunately, I think inflation is a more probable outcome. I am not sure I'd go as far as hyperinflation. Having lived (in another country) through it, I think the good old regular inflation will do just fine!

I recommend to look up narrative bias, because that argument about real estate going up because of buying fewer suits is a perfect example of it. (Thinking Fast & Slow)
 

smhatre

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I'm looking to dump cash into a large property that I can deem my primary residence, not as an investment, but merely as an insurance policy. If I get caught buying at the top, I don't mind losing a few million since it will be home I plan to live in for the rest of my life.

Unfortunately, here's just a little insight into how CRAZY the RE market is.

Saw a house in SLC that came up for sale. Mind you, it was listed for $4.8M and these higher price ranges (at least in the past) tend to stay on the market for a few weeks. It was a bit out of my budget but I'm chomping at the bit to unwind cash so I decided I would go look at it. Before I could even book a flight and get more details on it, it went Under Contract.

Even in these high prices ranges, houses are flying off the market. Bidding wars are not happening just at the $500K level, it is now transpiring in the mid-7 figure range.

In similar vain, I saw houses that didn't sell two years ago listed @ $2M now being relisted at $3.5M. Why not? If you can make $1.5M doing nothing in two years, can you blame them? But inflation is well contained.
I did the same. I bought a house for 927k CAD in Oakville Toronto in august 2019 similar house in my lane got sold for 1.5mil last month. I recently closed on an semi detached house in Windsor ON for 500k. Also I am looking at buying a restaurant business in Grimsby ON for 200k CAD.
 

Brrr

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Sugars +25%, Fruit purees +30%, Chocolate +20% compared to last year. Milk & fruit largely unchanged.

I'm also seeing a massive future inflation upstream in the form of customs charges for goods from the EU (damn you Italy for being the heart of the gelato industry), just needed a few spares parts for a business I supply £550 order, £150 of customs after I'd paid another £150 of customs charges on a similar order a couple of months back. I bought £1000 of stabilisers from Italy, £170 customs charges. This is only 4 months and I am a little tiny ant when it comes to importing.

All this stuff hasn't filtered into a lot of prices yet, but it no doubt will.

Let's not even get started on house prices, although at least retail units are going cheap now. Maybe ~20% drop.
 

23Infinity

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Chapwood Index - The Real Cost of Living Increase Index Vs Consumer Price Index - Founded by Ed Butowsky -
somewhat akin to shadowstats - not sure if it's just me but the website doesn't load properly in the recent months, don't know why. Related article: Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds

What would be the best way to protect your wealth / cash ?

Buy physical gold ? Buy commodity ETFs ? Continue investing into / growing a cash-generating business?

I'm already in crypto but wondering where else to diversify - ideal would prefer not to buy a house / real estate at the moment (crazy market in Canada), unless I partnered with a friend do so - wondering if that would be a smart idea.
 
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Agent X

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What's happening in your area with respect to prices?

Food?
Housing?
Cost of Living?
Repair services?

Let's here some ground reports.
I live close to SLC. Real estate here has more than doubled in the past 2-3 years. It's crazy with houses going under contract in one day with multiple offers. SFRs in Salt Lake Valley are now more than $500k. Lots of people are moving here from larger cities, mostly from the coasts.

Food is up probably 15-20% or so. Not sure if that's inflationary or limited supply.

Gas is up to $3.20 per gallon from around $2.20 before the election.

I don't know about repair services. I haven't used those. I suspect that they would also be higher with higher demand with people keeping cars longer with employment uncertainty.
 

Bruno Calisso

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Two weeks ago I made the decision to not save any more money, ever. I have built my low emergency savings fund, 2 years of expenses, all the rest I'm making I'll be putting it in physical assets, businesses and trade skills, I entered adulthood during the euro crisis and I'm not willing to ride those roads again. Euro's economy is a joke and I sense all these inflating bubbles around that are soon to pop and provide me cheap assets, can't lose that opportunity!
 

smhatre

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Chapwood Index - The Real Cost of Living Increase Index Vs Consumer Price Index - Founded by Ed Butowsky -
somewhat akin to shadowstats - not sure if it's just me but the website doesn't load properly in the recent months, don't know why. Related article: Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds

What would be the best way to protect your wealth / cash ?

Buy physical gold ? Buy commodity ETFs ? Continue investing into / growing a cash-generating business?

I'm already in crypto but wondering where else to diversify - ideal would prefer not to buy a house / real estate at the moment (crazy market in Canada), unless I partnered with a friend do so - wondering if that would be a smart idea.
I put some in Gold as insurance against the fiat currency and keep adding to it every year. I know the real estate prices are really all across Canada but look outside of the high priced markets like toronto and Vancouver. Maybe calgary. I bought a house on windsor recently for 505k the idea is that even if i get a rent of 1400 I dont have to pay any Emi from my pocket, the tenant pays it for me. I shoukd easily get me a rent of 1900 though currently. Even if there is recession if not 1900 i should get a rent of 1400 and i should be able to wait out 10 yrs if required. And on top of it the Governments across the world are ready to throw the helicopter money.
 

RadicalShift

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Prices on food, clothing, energy (electricity, gas, oil, etc) have been steadily rising for the past few years, but are we approaching hyper-inflation?...maybe.

One of the biggest indicators for me hasn't been cost of goods...

It's the stock market!

We are experiencing a market that is no longer based on fundamentals. We are witnessing a stock market that is disconnected from reality.

It seems C0VlD may have been the final "nail in the coffin" for the USD and this stock market melt UP is a direct result of the newly created TRILLIONS by the Fed.

The USD has been on life support for years, and most people know it. The problem is the Fed is OUT of options! No more tools in the tool belt.

Another big indicator for me is the suppression of Gold and Silver prices.

The commodities markets (in particular Gold and Silver) are very small and have been manipulated by a small handful of banks (you know who, the usual players) for decades.

But...

It appears the Comex is currently under attack! People are taking delivery of their metals in record numbers. This is the same Comex that SUPPOSEDLY has metals backing SLV and other metal ETF's.

I've been a Gold and Silver advocate for over 20 years and I believe we are in the beginning stages of a complete unraveling of the markets.

I got out of equities and crypto a little over a month ago.

The melt up very well may continue, but I believe we are days or weeks away from a massive crash (imo, a false flag event will probably be the first domino).

I am continuing to add to metal positions and have very little exposure to equities ($15k or so).

@MJ DeMarco If you are trying to preserve purchasing power, consider some life insurance by getting some (more?) Gold and Silver ASAP! PHYSICAL ONLY.
 

Paydette

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Currently building my dream home.... it has become a nightmare since the builder is beside himself dealing with price increases and of course wants/has to pass it onto us. Problem is that the contract was signed months ago... We are now renegotiating everything and he's pulling pricing to prove the increase is justified. Yes, hyperinflation here. You don't just print trillions and not expect hyperinflation.
 

lludwig

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Chapwood Index - The Real Cost of Living Increase Index Vs Consumer Price Index - Founded by Ed Butowsky -
somewhat akin to shadowstats - not sure if it's just me but the website doesn't load properly in the recent months, don't know why. Related article: Inaccurate statistics and the threat to bonds

What would be the best way to protect your wealth / cash ?

Buy physical gold ? Buy commodity ETFs ? Continue investing into / growing a cash-generating business?

I'm already in crypto but wondering where else to diversify - ideal would prefer not to buy a house / real estate at the moment (crazy market in Canada), unless I partnered with a friend do so - wondering if that would be a smart idea.
IMHO gold hasn't really moved in the past year.
 

Timmy C

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A gym bag cost me $55 up from $30 as they had limited stock due to supply chain issues.

Another ground report.
 

Agent X

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Gas prices are back to where they were in 2018 and 2019...

View attachment 37489
That is true. Just pointing out the rapid increase, since gas prices affect a lot of other prices. Also, it is close to the 5 year high mark that it was around in 2018 and 2019.
 

smhatre

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through a reputed ETF or is physical really the best option for gold and silver?
I think its best to hold physical gold given the fact what happened in US in 1933. Although i hold a mix of it. I hold Hug.to etf no issues with it. If you are into holding stock do your analysis there are a some value stocks in gold at this time. You have to be very thorough and patient with you stock if you are into it.
 

23Infinity

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I watch the prices of day to day things I buy on Amazon using a price tracker (used by many e-comm biz owners too), where you can also see historical prices to know if your paying an actual sale price or a fake discounted price.


I would say 60-75% of the products I buy are at historical highs (despite being range bound between 2017-2019). And these are mostly 'sold by Amazon' products that aren't jacked up like some third-party listings. Obviously one key contributor to this is the rise in shipping rates plus the shift to online shopping but I believe inflation is hidden into these increased prices as well.

Futhermore, I don't have proof of this, but I believe Amazon is actually keeping the prices of certain essentials and day-to-day products on the platform stable or lower - in spite of their own increasing costs of acquiring the product - in order to encourage adoption of the Amazon platform - obviously C0VlD has been a golden opportunity for them to capture the market share from a segment of the population that typically wouldn't use Amazon prior to March 2020.
 

MarkLavagne

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Inflation a out of control.
In Australia:

Cars cost an extra $5000 on average. I bought mine for $6,000 a few years ago. I was looking to upgrade and that same car I bought for $6,000 now sells for $8000!

To get something decent im looking at $15,000 pfft just keeping the car.

Housing in my town went up from $340,000 for a unit to now $400,000+ merely a few months later.

Petrol is up 30c litre.
Some food is up more than 50%.

But DW everyone, there is no inflation!

AU used car prices are skyrocketing mostly due to short supply and increased demand (people look more and more to 2nd hand cars due to lack of resources).

Living between Singapore and Japan I can see the following:

- food prices up 50% in last 1.5 years in both countries. Food variety as in variety in supermarkets has beed decreased significantly in Singapore - supermarkets put same product on many shelves just to avoid empty spaces. Japan has different marketing tactics - they keep same price but ridiculously reduce product amount.

- Cars - prices slightly went down in Singapore and went up in Japan (short supply)

- houses - pre-C0VlD trend was down in both countries, Japan is still but Singapore prices are skyrocketing and government is considering market cooling measures. Severe shortages of workforce on building sites due top C0VlD restrictions led to already delayed deliveries on housing market for 1-2 year for current developments (numbers are increasing). So prices are expected to go up in coming years, provided all other factors remain intact.

- clothes, entertainment - prices went up simultaneously with quality going down for same brands. I'd put subjective numbers at 30% within lats 1.5 yr.

Overall cost of living necessities went up around 30%-40%, which is actual representation of inflation for most of population.
 

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