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Huawei : How lack of Control hits hard on a bigger scale.

Jeff Noel

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Huawei got hit by Trump's banhammer. A lot of people are putting the fault on Google (it's not Google's fault).
Here are the facts:

-Android is Open Source. Huawei will keep access to latest updates, they just won't have access to Google softwares (It has been said Huawei would keep access to the Play Store, but not apps like GMail).

-Huawei earned $107 Billion in revenue in 2018. Yet, they're still at the mercy of Google, which is at the mercy of the US Government. None of these companies can say "F*ck You" to their master.

-The alternative solutions in the heat of the fire are costly: Huawei has been developing its own OS (not EMUI) for a while, it should be coming out soon. What about the people's confidence worldwide in this new, Chinese-made OS though ? It won't be Android even though it could be AOSP-based. Google could always relocate to neutral country, to keep Huawei as a partner for future tech. Huawei is reportedly leading the 5G race, with over $15 Billion in R&D this year for this technology. It also held 11,423 patents in 2018.

-Huawei has sold 200 million phones in 2018, according to Statista, it has a market share of 19% in the mobile device world.

What these news show is that whether it's a small business or a worldwide, multi-billion dollar industry, lack of Control can hit you at any time.

This is not only bad news for Huawei. The presidential executive order will impact the whole mobile phone industry and it's R&D. The public sentiment on Google is already declining in social medias as people do not understand that Google had no other choice but to comply. It is an extremely bad decision for a business point of view, as other Chinese companies, or government, could retaliate. Not only that, but it shows foreign companies like Samsung (South Korea) that one simple order could cut them out. And it affects everyone in the world, not only US citizens.

It's China's turn, and it could become really bad, really fast. What about an industry-wide Chinese Exportation ban for the mobile industry ? All these chips. It would only leave Samsung's screens (mostly LG screens to be honest) and Samsung's RAM and UFS to be available for companies established in the United States.

I do not want to get into politics, but China's playing the long term game. Their next move could be decisive for a blooming industry, which has seen tremendous progress in the last 2-3 years.

CENTS. Respect the commandments.
 

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astr0

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It's China's turn, and it could become really bad, really fast
True. And for Huawei, it's not only Google but also Xilinx, Qualcomm, Intel, and Broadlink.

Really bad for the industry already. It's probably hard to respect the Control commandment at that scale, like the possibility of government interventions. Those businesses have higher revenue than the GDP of my country.

Following the news on this...
 

G-Man

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Huawei?China wins the long game on this one. It will accelerate the trend toward truly open source products, and everyone will have to compete on hardware.

Guess where all the hardware is made.....
 

Kid

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Huawei?China wins the long game on this one. It will accelerate the trend toward truly open source products, and everyone will have to compete on hardware.

Guess where all the hardware is made.....
This. China just got huge incentive to become software superpower.
 

wordwarrior

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Huawei got hit by Trump's banhammer. A lot of people are putting the fault on Google (it's not Google's fault).
...
CENTS. Respect the commandments.
Thanks for this! I love the Fastlane Forum, but there aren't nearly enough of these types of corporate case studies on this site.

There's tons of lessons entrepreneurs can learn from the successes and failures of megacorps, not just startups and small businesses.
 

Ninjakid

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Honestly, this has less to do with CENTS, and more to do with global politics. China and US are in the middle of a trade war so...

China is halting trade with Canada over this whole Huawei fiasco. That shows you how much power Huawei has.
 

George Appiah

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-Huawei earned $107 Billion in revenue in 2018. Yet, they're still at the mercy of Google, which is at the mercy of the US Government. None of these companies can say "F*ck You" to their master.
While I agree with your general premise, let's put this figure in perspective: probably less than 20% of this comes from smartphone sales, where they may be at the mercy of Google. According to your link, "consumer business" was 45.1% (the rest is from "core network" business unit, which offers equipment for mobile fixed broadband networks, consultancy and managed services, multimedia technology, etc).

And even this "consumer business" is not just smartphones... it includes ADSL modems, Fibre modems, cellular modems, fixed cellular terminals, IP phones, wifi access points, and other consumer premise equipment (CPEs) that telecom carriers use to service billions of voice and data subscriptions around the world. These devices are often branded by the carriers, white-labelled for other device vendors, or solid as chipsets to other device manufacturers -- so you may not even see a Huawei logo on them. But it's a huge business for them nonetheless.

Honestly, this has less to do with CENTS, and more to do with global politics. China and US are in the middle of a trade war so...
My thoughts as well.

Hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth have been made on the backs of Apple's iOS and Google's Android platforms -- controlled 100% by Apple and Google respectively. Today's $70Billion Uber is 100% dependent on Apple and Google for distribution. This certainly violates the tenet of CONTROL. But is this a CONTROL risk they should try and remove?

While maintaining CONTROL is certainly important, in this our hyper-connected world, it gets to a point where you cannot be in the game without assuming some CONTROL risks. The best you can do, beyond some point, is to hedge your bets and ride the wave as far as it takes you.
 

Ninjakid

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While I agree with your general premise, let's put this figure in perspective: probably less than 20% of this comes from smartphone sales, where they may be at the mercy of Google. According to your link, "consumer business" was 45.1% (the rest is from "core network" business unit, which offers equipment for mobile fixed broadband networks, consultancy and managed services, multimedia technology, etc).

And even this "consumer business" is not just smartphones... it includes ADSL modems, Fibre modems, cellular modems, fixed cellular terminals, IP phones, wifi access points, and other consumer premise equipment (CPEs) that telecom carriers use to service billions of voice and data subscriptions around the world. These devices are often branded by the carriers, white-labelled for other device vendors, or solid as chipsets to other device manufacturers -- so you may not even see a Huawei logo on them. But it's a huge business for them nonetheless.



My thoughts as well.

Hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth have been made on the backs of Apple's iOS and Google's Android platforms -- controlled 100% by Apple and Google respectively. Today's $70Billion Uber is 100% dependent on Apple and Google for distribution. This certainly violates the tenet of CONTROL. But is this a CONTROL risk they should try and remove?

While maintaining CONTROL is certainly important, in this our hyper-connected world, it gets to a point where you cannot be in the game without assuming some CONTROL risks. The best you can do, beyond some point, is to hedge your bets and ride the wave as far as it takes you.
Another example is how Intel makes all the computer chips. Intel literally has the power to collapse civilization lol.
 

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astr0

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Another example is how Intel makes all the computer chips. Intel literally has the power to collapse civilization lol.
We'll be fine.

There's also AMD and a bunch of companies producing ARM CPUs. Other chips are not made only by Intel too.

In fact, we may see non-Intel Apple Macbooks soon. I won't bet on Intel till 2021, they'll probably survive and we'll continue to have some healthy competition in the industry.
 
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Jeff Noel

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Another example is how Intel makes all the computer chips. Intel literally has the power to collapse civilization lol.
I don't think there ever was a moment in time where AMD was such in good shape to be compared to Intel, chip-wise.

Ryzen has skyrocketed AMD's market share in CPUs, and the RX 500 series of GPU aren't doing too bad either. With Zen 2 series being on 7nm, it makes a huge competitive advantage. There's a keynote event in 6 days from AMD's CEO that will probably be the launch event of Ryzen 3000 series and Navi GPUs. With Nvidia RTX cards not hitting sales expectations (making it Nvidia's stock first majorly bearish event in 5 years) and Intel's shortage, AMD is in a really good position against two businesses worth 3-5x its market cap.

Intel has been fighting with exploits for the past year, and yet another flaw (ZombieLoad) came out last week, reducing CPU performance in computers (such as Mac PCs) by 40%. We're still waiting after Intel Cannonlake (10nm) while Zen 2 is coming in a couple of months, on 7nm architecture.

Intel does have the major share of the market right now, and it has a huge R&D advantage over AMD (who's fighting on two fronts), but Intel most likely dropped a lot of its efforts in Quantum CPUs and lately, their new GPU line which is coming soon-ish. They could be in far better shape in the CPU market. AMD has chosen their time to strike... and "ryze" (sorry).
 

astr0

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I don't think there ever was a moment in time where AMD was such in good shape to be compared to Intel, chip-wise.

Ryzen has skyrocketed AMD's market share in CPUs, and the RX 500 series of GPU aren't doing too bad either. With Zen 2 series being on 7nm, it makes a huge competitive advantage. There's a keynote event in 6 days from AMD's CEO that will probably be the launch event of Ryzen 3000 series and Navi GPUs. With Nvidia RTX cards not hitting sales expectations (making it Nvidia's stock first majorly bearish event in 5 years) and Intel's shortage, AMD is in a really good position against two businesses worth 3-5x its market cap.

Intel has been fighting with exploits for the past year, and yet another flaw (ZombieLoad) came out last week, reducing CPU performance in computers (such as Mac PCs) by 40%. We're still waiting after Intel Cannonlake (10nm) while Zen 2 is coming in a couple of months, on 7nm architecture.

Intel does have the major share of the market right now, and it has a huge R&D advantage over AMD (who's fighting on two fronts), but Intel most likely dropped a lot of its efforts in Quantum CPUs and lately, their new GPU line which is coming soon-ish. They could be in far better shape in the CPU market. AMD has chosen their time to strike... and "ryze" (sorry).
^^ this, just didn't want to post it here.

Also, Intel CPU roadmap till 2021 doesn't look promising and competitive.
While even after Spectre&Meltdown continuing buying Intel was somehow justified for the servers (and I'm more about cloud providers which are pretty huge part of the market). With ZombieLoad, much lower performance per dollar, lower performance per watt and less cooling required EPYC looks insanely better already. And EPYC based on Zen2 is coming in Q3 2019.

I've told my trader buddy that I have strong reason to short Intel about a month ago when it was 57-58 and it's 43 already. Dunno if he listened, I'm not a trader and not giving any professional advice.
 

wordwarrior

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We'll be fine.

There's also AMD and a bunch of companies producing ARM CPUs. Other chips are not made only by Intel too.

In fact, we may see non-Intel Apple Macbooks soon. I won't bet on Intel till 2021, they'll probably survive and we'll continue to have some healthy competition in the industry.
I'm sure Apple has had enough of Intel's delays wreaking havoc on their MacBook product line by now. The poor battery life on my MacBook Pro is probably Intel's fault. The only question is how well pro apps, Java/IDEs, etc perform on ARM instead of Intel.
 

Danny01

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Hauwei will develop their own OS. A very big challenge ahead
 

astr0

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The poor battery life on my MacBook Pro is probably Intel's fault. The only question is how well pro apps, Java/IDEs, etc perform on ARM instead of Intel.
Probably not, the screen usually takes more if you're not doing heavy computing tasks all the time.

Bigger question who will port them from x86/amd64 to ARM. Java and Xamarin apps would be fine, all the big companies would have the time and money for their products, but what about smaller ones? Not all the code can be just recompiled, they potentially would lose a lot with breaking compatibility.

But that's Apple, they've done it before with PowerPC to Intel transitioning...
 

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On the flipside, and possibly playing devil's advocate against the hivemind, more like how you should IGNORE control as far as CENTS go because you won't have 100% control depending on how far you want to go down the rabbit hole.

You're trying to compare multi-billion dollar companies to bedroom operations. Not only are they a different league, but they're also a whole different sport.

EDIT: On second thought, in addition to previously stated, this is not a violation on the commandment of control, because you can't control what another government does. You may have limited control over your own via lobbying and whatnot, but really, you can't say what a government does is violation on control.
 
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Ninjakid

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I don't think there ever was a moment in time where AMD was such in good shape to be compared to Intel, chip-wise.

Ryzen has skyrocketed AMD's market share in CPUs, and the RX 500 series of GPU aren't doing too bad either. With Zen 2 series being on 7nm, it makes a huge competitive advantage. There's a keynote event in 6 days from AMD's CEO that will probably be the launch event of Ryzen 3000 series and Navi GPUs. With Nvidia RTX cards not hitting sales expectations (making it Nvidia's stock first majorly bearish event in 5 years) and Intel's shortage, AMD is in a really good position against two businesses worth 3-5x its market cap.

Intel has been fighting with exploits for the past year, and yet another flaw (ZombieLoad) came out last week, reducing CPU performance in computers (such as Mac PCs) by 40%. We're still waiting after Intel Cannonlake (10nm) while Zen 2 is coming in a couple of months, on 7nm architecture.

Intel does have the major share of the market right now, and it has a huge R&D advantage over AMD (who's fighting on two fronts), but Intel most likely dropped a lot of its efforts in Quantum CPUs and lately, their new GPU line which is coming soon-ish. They could be in far better shape in the CPU market. AMD has chosen their time to strike... and "ryze" (sorry).
I totally forgot about AMD lol I'm such a moron
 

Jeff Noel

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I totally forgot about AMD lol I'm such a moron
*off topic*
Don't say that. Never say that.
Go back to the last thread you started and think of what you think of yourself (think think lol). Change that, you're better than you think. A single word YOU say about yourself can change your mind's perception. Now, you're not a moron. People can say that all you want, it won't change if you think so low of yourself.

*on topic*
You're not wrong either: If Intel stopped tomorrow, the server industry would take more than a couple of years to get back in shape. EPYC is great, but AMD probably can't produce enough to cover 5-15x what it sells right now in the servers and workstation industry !
 

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Yzn

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Just as others have posted, I wouldn't say its CONTROL but it's more of global politics. In order for Huawei to be in control, it would need to be in control of U.S government.
 

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