How Scalable Is Kindle Publishing?

[PJ Pahygiannis]

How Scalable Is Kindle Publishing? Thoughts? Is it possible to get in the fast lane with the platform?

 

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[AizenSousuke]

Possible but you'd need to market it like crazy and make sure that people buy your books...

however, it's very crowded in there...

 

[PJ Pahygiannis]

I did $270 this month. $500 since November

 

[Lex DeVille]

Is it scalable, yes.

Is it possible yes.

Can you do it? Who knows.

 

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[Lex DeVille]

Is it possible in KDP Select? No.

KDP Select has a cap of around 4mil a month that is divided among thousands and thousands of people. Even if you could scale, you won't get more than what they offer.

 

[Digamma]

Is it possible in KDP Select? No.

KDP Select has a cap of around 4mil a month that is divided among thousands and thousands of people. Even if you could scale, you won't get more than what they offer.

Why, other markets are infinite?

 

[Lex DeVille]

Why, other markets are infinite?

I'm not quite sure what you're asking.

KDP Select has a cap. If that cap is $4 million, then how can you expect to earn more than that on borrows? You're limited right from the start.

If we estimate on the low end and say 1,000 people use KDP Select, then all of a sudden the $4mil is divided by 1,000.

That means there's roughly $4,000 for each person in a given month.

My guess is that a lot more than 1,000 people are using KDP select.

So if you run the same numbers at 10,000, then it becomes $400 per person per month.

I guess what I'm saying is that if your plan is to get rich on borrows, then there's a flaw in your plan.

 

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[Digamma]

I'm not quite sure what you're asking.

(...)

I guess what I'm saying is that if your plan is to get rich on borrows, then there's a flaw in your plan.

Your math is correct. But I disagree with your conclusion. In any market you won't get more of what customers want to spend. Only difference is, you know that cap in this case.
However, to me, a business that can get you 100k a month is something that makes you rich. Then you send that money to make babies.

 

[Lex DeVille]

I guess I'm brain dead on this one, or maybe it's just too early in the morning, but I don't see how you're going to make $100,000 a month on borrows, when the cap is $4 million being distributed over thousands of people.

 

[Digamma]

I guess I'm brain dead on this one, or maybe it's just too early in the morning, but I don't see how you're going to make $100,000 a month on borrows, when the cap is $4 million being distributed over thousands of people.

By raking in the borrows. Like with sales. I don't get where you see a difference. There is no difference except you know how big the pie is.
Besides, you seem to think that selling and lending are mutually exclusive. They're not.

 

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[Charnell]

I guess I'm brain dead on this one, or maybe it's just too early in the morning, but I don't see how you're going to make $100,000 a month on borrows, when the cap is $4 million being distributed over thousands of people.

Because it's not divided evenly. Think of it like a pie. Not everyone is getting the same size piece. Yes there is a limit to how much pie there is, but if I take more in my slice (more people borrow my books) then you get less pie in your slice.

 

[Digamma]

Because it's not divided evenly. Think of it like a pie. Not everyone is getting the same size piece. Yes there is a limit to how much pie there is, but if I take more in my slice (more people borrow my books) then you get less pie in your slice.

Exactly. And there is always a pie. The amount of money people will spend in one market is never infinite.

 

[Lex DeVille]

Actually, it is divided evenly.

Everyone in KU earns the same amount per borrow.

Amazon sets the global fund amount, not the customer.

You can earn more borrows, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to earn more money.

What happens when a whole bunch of people earn a whole bunch of borrows in a single month.

What happens when that amount blows the lid off of the cap?

Amazon doesn't have to raise their fund just to give you money for those borrows.

You agree to the KDP Select terms of service when you use their program.

If you get 20 million borrows and the cap is 4 million, do you think Amazon is going to give you all of the money?

And since you had the most borrows, does that mean everyone else gets nothing?

So, no there is not always more pie.

There is a certain amount of pie, set by Amazon, that you have no control over.


Sales on the other hand are a different matter completely.

But if you're trying to earn more sales, why wouldn't you opt out of KDP Select and publish on all major retailers.

Customers aren't stupid. They're quickly catching on to the poor quality of works in KU.

If the quality doesn't improve, then customers will go elsewhere.

 

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[Charnell]

Actually, it is divided evenly.

Everyone in KU earns the same amount per borrow.

Amazon sets the global fund amount, not the customer.

You can earn more borrows, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to earn more money.

What happens when a whole bunch of people earn a whole bunch of borrows in a single month.

What happens when that amount blows the lid off of the cap?

Amazon doesn't have to raise their fund just to give you money for those borrows.

You agree to the KDP Select terms of service when you use their program.

If you get 20 million borrows and the cap is 4 million, do you think Amazon is going to give you all of the money?

And since you had the most borrows, does that mean everyone else gets nothing?

So, no there is not always more pie.

There is a certain amount of pie, set by Amazon, that you have no control over.


Sales on the other hand are a different matter completely.

But if you're trying to earn more sales, why wouldn't you opt out of KDP Select and publish on all major retailers.

Customers aren't stupid. They're quickly catching on to the poor quality of works in KU.

If the quality doesn't improve, then customers will go elsewhere.

Just because you're in KU doesn't automatically grant you a magical set amount. Yes, the payout per borrow is the same, but the amount of borrows you have is different.

I have $100 to give.
If 10 people get 10 borrows each, that's 100 total borrows, so every borrow is worth $1. Everyone gets $10.
If 10 people get 20 borrows each, that's 200 total borrows, so every borrow is worth $0.50. Everyone gets $10.
If 9 people get 5 borrows each, and 1 person gets 55 borrows, that's 100 total borrows, so every borrow is worth $1. The first 9 people get $5 each, and the last person gets $55.

If you get 20 million borrows and the cap is 4 million, do you think Amazon is going to give you all of the money?
Depends on how many total borrows there are. If there were 40 million total borrows, you'd get $2 million.

No one is saying there is more pie, we're saying the slice of pie you get is determined by the quality of your books, and how many borrows they get.

 

[Lex DeVille]

I agree with you about quality determining the slice of the fund you get, but I still don't agree that KU is Fastlane. Especially not on borrows.

I agree that you can make money with KU. You can even have a full-time job. I don't agree that it's a long-term strategy for making big money.

Maybe you guys will prove me wrong, but as of now, a Google search for "Kindle Unlimited Millionaire" returns nothing.

 

[Thiago Machado]

Please correct me if I'm wrong,

But If you could translate your book into a different language, wouldn't that open you up to a whole new market and allow you to scale your business?

I think this is a way to scale your books on an international level, and it's how normal publishers scale too.

I know they have Kindle in different countries.

If you could have the same book in another language, I'm assuming you could tap into that market as long as there is a demand for them.

 

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[Digamma]

Actually, it is divided evenly.

Everyone in KU earns the same amount per borrow.

Amazon sets the global fund amount, not the customer.

Which is inconsequential. Also, the customers number that use KU sets the fund, albeit indirectly.

You can earn more borrows, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to earn more money.

What happens when a whole bunch of people earn a whole bunch of borrows in a single month.

What happens when that amount blows the lid off of the cap?

What happens when any market gets saturated? The same thing. But, see below.

Amazon doesn't have to raise their fund just to give you money for those borrows.

You agree to the KDP Select terms of service when you use their program.

The fund is determined by the customers number. They already adjusted the fund to reach a decent borrow payout. The moment they don't, everybody that is worth a shit will get out of the program and it's gonna be the end of borrowing books.
Now, interestingly, nobody is going to adjust the fund when somebody comes and steals your customers away in a free market.

If you get 20 million borrows and the cap is 4 million, do you think Amazon is going to give you all of the money?

And since you had the most borrows, does that mean everyone else gets nothing?

So a singularity happens and borrows explode in one month for reasons unknown? Yeah, ok.
And tell me, what if a big company gets in your market and destroys your business in one week?

So, no there is not always more pie.

Which is amusingly something you are saying happens outside of KU.

There is a certain amount of pie, set by Amazon, that you have no control over.


Sales on the other hand are a different matter completely.

Are you insane? There is always a pie, even if you don't know how big it is. Or you seriously think any business can sell infinite product? Like customers are going to be generated from dark matter just to buy your stuff?

But if you're trying to earn more sales, why wouldn't you opt out of KDP Select and publish on all major retailers.

I'm sorry, but I don't know what this means.

Customers aren't stupid. They're quickly catching on to the poor quality of works in KU.

If the quality doesn't improve, then customers will go elsewhere.

What? This doesn't even make any sense. What are you talking about? You realize it's not a different marketplace, yes?
There is the same shit that it's on Amazon, only the customer doesn't have to throw money at it.
And even if, EVEN IF, people got out of KU, so what? No KU anymore.

I agree with you about quality determining the slice of the fund you get, but I still don't agree that KU is Fastlane. Especially not on borrows.

I agree that you can make money with KU. You can even have a full-time job. I don't agree that it's a long-term strategy for making big money.

How much do you want to be able to earn to call it "big money"? What kind of business will make you that?
Or wait, do you mean Fastlane as "I'm gonna sell this company for a trillion in three years"? Then no, it's not. Like most things. Far easier to make a lot of money and use that to make other money, though.

EDIT: Ah, ok, now I got it.

 

[Charnell]

I'm sorry, but I don't know what this means.

He means not going exclusively with Amazon. Going on Smashwords, iTunes, Google Play Store, Kobo, Nook, Scribed, etc.

 

[Digamma]

He means not going exclusively with Amazon. Going on Smashwords, iTunes, Google Play Store, Kobo, Nook, Scribed, etc.

No, I know what he said. I don't know what it means. Where it came from as it wasn't connected logically with the rest of his sentences.
However, I understood why later.

 

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[ChickenHawk]

There are lots of interesting points back and forth here. (I do hope, however, we can keep the debate civil. Some of the above comments seem a bit borderline to me, but I digress...)

About KU, I agree that the quality of works is iffy. Lots of dreck is being thrown up there in obvious money-grabs. I do think that Amazon will have to address issue this one way or another, if only by introducing a sliding scale based on length of work. Right now, shorter works are paid more "pie" per word, regardless of quality. For those who write longer stuff, it's a big disadvantage.

Speaking of the KU pie, it's true that each book earns the same per borrow, but the slice of the pie among different authors can REALLY vary. I operate under two pen names. One pen name earned a tiny KU sliver. The other pen name received a huge chunk of pie. A "ceiling" on earnings doesn't really bother me, because the ceiling is so high that I still have plenty of room to grow.

However, to me, a business that can get you 100k a month is something that makes you rich. Then you send that money to make babies.

I agree with this 100%. Sometimes, my friends will say, "Oh come on, can you REALLY keep churning out these books forever?" I explain to them that this is beside the point. My plan is to earn enough money in the short-term to make sure that I don't ever have to go slowlane again. The idea is to make lots of money now, while the sun is shining, and have that money "make babies," whether in real estate or whatever. It's kind of a two-tier plan.

 

[Digamma]

There are lots of interesting points back and forth here. (I do hope, however, we can keep the debate civil. Some of the above comments seem a bit borderline to me, but I digress...)

You're right, I got heated. I'm a passionate man. And, well, an a**hole.

About KU, I agree that the quality of works is iffy. Lots of dreck is being thrown up there in obvious money-grabs. I do think that Amazon will have to address issue this one way or another, if only by introducing a sliding scale based on length of work. Right now, shorter works are paid more "pie" per word, regardless of quality. For those who write longer stuff, it's a big disadvantage.

Don't know about that. I think they will make adjustments if it makes sense financially - aka if people start dropping out because of this.
Still, before KU, indies were already pushed to $2.99 by the market, regardless.

I agree with this 100%. Sometimes, my friends will say, "Oh come on, can you REALLY keep churning out these books forever?" I explain to them that this is beside the point. My plan is to earn enough money in the short-term to make sure that I don't ever have to go slowlane again. The idea is to make lots of money now, while the sun is shining, and have that money "make babies," whether in real estate or whatever. It's kind of a two-tier plan.

Funny thing, people are dubious on whether you can write forever, but have no problem slaving away their whole lives. Ah!
You are, of course, right. We cannot know what will happen tomorrow. But today, there is money to be made, and as they, better an egg today than a hen tomorrow.

 

[ChickenHawk]

I think they will make adjustments if it makes sense financially - aka if people start dropping out because of this.

Aside from this, the reason I think Amazon may adjust their payout scale is because an ever-growing number of KU authors are publishing books that are consumed in too short of a timeframe. (Note, I'm not talking about the time it takes an author to write something, but rather the time it takes for the customer to consume.)

For example, let's say that Amazon calculated that the average avid reader would "consume" 80 hours of reading-material a month, or let's say eight full-length novels. But now, in response to Amazon's KU borrow structure, authors are chopping up these novels to receive more borrows. (If you write a 100K novel and publish it as one work, you will earn one borrow. If, however, you chop this up into five parts, you earn five borrows.)

As a result, Amazon is overpaying for some works, while underpaying for others. If this keeps up, Amazon will have to drastically reduce the payout rate per borrow. Or, they will have to increase their monthly charge to customers. Neither of these options will benefit Amazon. If they reduce the payout rate, the good authors will leave. If they increase the monthly rate they charge readers, they will lose customers. The only solution, it seems, is to introduce a sliding scale to more accurately reflect the amount of "reading-time" provided per book.

The structure, it seems to me, is on a sort of death spiral, where more and more authors will chop up their books, ever straining the borrow rate until Amazon must do something. I'm predicting that they will introduce a sliding scale, because it seems to make the most mathematical sense.

But I'd love to hear opposing thoughts on this. Other than myself, I've never seen anyone predict this. Does it seem too far out? I'd love to know.

 

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[Digamma]

Aside from this, the reason I think Amazon may adjust their payout scale is because an ever-growing number of KU authors are publishing books that are consumed in too short of a timeframe. (Note, I'm not talking about the time it takes an author to write something, but rather the time it takes for the customer to consume.)

(...)

That is actually a very interesting point of view. I hadn't thought of it that way.
I think this is something that could happen, but you can only make stories so short. Authors can drive the length of stories down, but there is a limit to that. I don't think we can easily go under 5k words, and that's valid only for some genres (good luck selling 5k to fantasy readers).
So the death spiral must end somewhere, if nothing else because you can't go under a handful of thousand words and still be read. How will the balance lie when that limit is reached, I can't say, but I think we're already there on the length.

Besides, it remains to be seen if a sliding scale would restore a balance anyway. I think it's pretty hard.
If the difference in payout is small, the large number of short books will still give advantage to short writers.
If the difference is big, writers of short stuff will just pump out more bundles and still take most of the pie.

 

[Vansita]

I think the secret is to cut, than bundle your work to increase your shares . Just think of what Sir Arthur Conan Doyle did to Sherlock Holmes.

 

[Mattie]

Because it's not divided evenly. Think of it like a pie. Not everyone is getting the same size piece. Yes there is a limit to how much pie there is, but if I take more in my slice (more people borrow my books) then you get less pie in your slice.

That's the way I believe it works.

 

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[Mattie]

That is actually a very interesting point of view. I hadn't thought of it that way.
I think this is something that could happen, but you can only make stories so short. Authors can drive the length of stories down, but there is a limit to that. I don't think we can easily go under 5k words, and that's valid only for some genres (good luck selling 5k to fantasy readers).
So the death spiral must end somewhere, if nothing else because you can't go under a handful of thousand words and still be read. How will the balance lie when that limit is reached, I can't say, but I think we're already there on the length.

Besides, it remains to be seen if a sliding scale would restore a balance anyway. I think it's pretty hard.
If the difference in payout is small, the large number of short books will still give advantage to short writers.
If the difference is big, writers of short stuff will just pump out more bundles and still take most of the pie.

I keep seeing this short stories from 1-15 pages. And wonder how many borrows or sales they get. That's under 5,000 words, but considered 15 minute short reads. 30 minute short reads etc. And there's plenty of people picking up that idea that because people don't have the patience to read, they want flash fiction type books. I haven't started with my fiction books, but I was going to experiment with it. And even authors put their first chapter in them. 1pg. to advertise their novel. Ha ha, I love digging around seeing what people are doing. And then you find the idiots that copy and past 3 pages, or even make photo books with 6 images, and they get bad reviews. So Someone's reading these books, because they get bashed.