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HOT TOPIC How does the economy really work? (Banks, loans, value, economics)

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Kevin88660

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So I'm trying to formulate my idea of how the economy works and would like others to think about this too.

New money is created via debt - yes or no?

Banks lend out money, often in the form of either a business loan or a mortgage.

So let's say that I get a business loan and I hire 20 people. Those 20 people each get mortgages. Their work pays down my business loan over time, and in return I pay them wages or salaries, which they use to pay down their mortgages over time.

This would eventually cancel out my debt and their debt. New value and new wealth was created! ...Right?

Is that true? Can it really work that way across the board, or is more debt always necessary?

I'm trying to figure out how this all fits together intuitively.

Honestly, @JScott ... your expertise would be great for this question.

edit: guys...I know what value is and that it isn’t money. I’m asking people how the government, banks, etc actually function. I’m not asking for people to tell me my own ideology! I am already pro-capitalism and value :)
What you are asking is more about monetary economics, how money runs in the modern economy.

Central banks create base money but credit/debt is generated by the private banking sector.

The banks can create far more debt than the money they own, through the double entry book keeping system.

When Jack the business wants to borrow one million dollar loan for business from Bank A. Bank A approved his loan by not taking from its banknote reserve. Bank A just key in digitally 1 million dollar in Jack’s account. Debt in the form of digital money is created. It is an asset for the bank, because Jack now owe 1 million dollar the bank. It is also a liability for the bank, because the digits represent the obligation to provide banknote once the owner choose to withdraw (even though they rarely do so).

So whatever transfer of the money across account is simple a transfer of “promise to pay”.

Because most of the money is in this form rather than base money or money notes, we say when money is created, debt is created.

Jack the business owner wants to make a profit. He targets a 50 percent return on investment for the year through business profit. He spends the one million dollar away buying equipment and hiring staffs. One million credit is spent. For that 50 percent return to be possible there must be at least 1.5 million of credit in the system. It means new money/credit/debt must be issued other than the existing 1 million in circulation.

In short most people want to “make money”, having more credit/money, than yesterday. This means that banks have to constantly “create money” which is issue new debt into the system. Only then it is possible to have more money than yesterday. Only then it is possible for Jack to earn an revenue large enough to pay down its debt plus interest and have a profit. If banks all stop giving out new loans we will have massive bankruptcy and financial collapse.

Ideally banks in aggregate should expand credit proportional to the real economic growth (value creation), to avoid economic stagnation or too much inflation.
 
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The question is how the banking and monetary systems work. Not how value or entrepreneurship work

There are two ways you can approach this. You can buy a used college textbook on monetary policy and learn all the money supply graphs and statistics on how printing money is great. Also, Funny how Woodrow Wilson was a college professor.

OR

You can learn all of this from what I call the “anti-brainwash” perspective. In other words you reject everything academia says and look at things from a fresh perspective. In that case watch the 1996 documentary “Money Masters” by Bill Still.

I already researched all of this. And my views align more with the second.

Banks create all our money and the loan it out through collateralized lending so some other schmuck takes the risk and they incur no opportunity-cost. Oh, and you don’t get “free money” loans if you are not in “the club” of private bankers.

Oh, and the federal reserve system is cleverly designed so that if shit hits the fan, they can blame someone else for it. Hyperinflation? What are you talking about?
 
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thechosen1

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Money supply is created via fractional reserve banking, meaning I lend out the same dollar ten times, 10x-ing the money supply.

The Fed acquires assets (other people's debt) and pays for them with money created out of thin air. The interest and principe are then paid back as you described, so the Fed makes money off of lending money that they created from nothing.

The system does not work, this is easily seen by charting the value of the dollar since 1913 (or similarly in any central banking system). When the Fed creates money they are stealing value from other people's savings.

Another way it doesn't work: the system diverts investment into less productive projects and it distorts prices, sending confusing signals to entrepreneurs, who then make bad investments. This is the cause of business cycles.

If the system worked you could just save cash instead of investing in stocks, etc. And we wouldn't have boom-bust business cycles.

The system works if you are a banker and you want to steal value without being productive.
Some very profound insights here.

I had never thought about how this could lead people to make bad investments and/or create business cycles, but that makes perfect sense and we can accurately see that now, for instance:

"Dollars bad!! Must invest more money!!" - that is the name of the game in 2021, and has led to many investments becoming quite overvalued.
 

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Productive value creation and voluntary exchange is what makes an economy work.
That statement should be in gold BOLD letters. The economy as we usually think of it is nothing more than the system that keeps voluntary exchange for created value moving.
 

WJK

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Even the mainstream academics debate about effect of money printing. You also have the unorthodox schools like Austrian and post-keynesian/minsky school of thought.

The new classical school (chicago school) simply hold a money neutrality view that money is just a tool for bartering.

The neoclassical (old keynesian)school views money as largely neutral but not entirely neutral. Having some inflation is a good things because lenders rather than savers are the engines of the economy. But when interest gets to near zero monetary policy become useless. The lower of cost of borrowing can no longer encourage business expansion or consumer spending. Hence you need government to take the role of deficit spending. This is what they call a liquidity trap at zero percent. Major proponent of this school of thought is Paul Krugman.

The monetarist school (Milton Friedman and his disciple Ben Bernanke) believes that during normal time moderate inflation is good. But during a crisis aggressive monetary stimulus is needed to ensure there is no liquidity crisis, which leads to massive bankruptcy. Liquidity trap at zero percent is nonsense because the central bank can push negative interest rate and buy up assets directly in the market. When your financial assets hold value market participants are unlikely to liquidate and continue the vicious cycle. 2008 was the example when banks toxic assets are recapitalized, they are not in pressure to call back loans for self preservation. There is less pressure on the entire cashflow chain in the real economy.

The Austrian school will say its the easy money and low interest during the boom years thats the problem which leads to bad investment and bad debt, and we should do nothing during the crisis because this is the time to detox and let bankruptcy take its course. Peter schiff is a proponent of this.

The post keynesian/minsky school will say it is not about whether u should print money but how you should print money. The real problem is private debt is too high (business and consumers) relative to their ability to make an income. So when you recapitalize banks through QE the banks look at the business and individuals and say “These people and business are near broke and I dun dare to lend them money”. Because when private banks create a debt/loan, they create liability for themselves. If they lend the credit to a businessman and its business man spent the credit on a supplier and then went bankrupt, now the bank owes credit to the supplier. So what QE is doing is making banks sitting on cash doing nothing. It makes stock market billionaires richer. And the stock market billionaire say “wow let me cash out to invest in real business operations. But gee.. the people are broke..the consumers have high debt and are broke and can only shop at walmart..I cannot make money in real business and I better reinvest back into the stock market”. Thats why we have rocket high inflation in the asset prices but not much inflation (some here here will say otherwise) and stimulus in real business activity so far despite having QE. And the right solution is to have “People’s QE”-mailing cheque to average people. Steve keen the professor from Australia is a proponent for that, and ironically after covid the governments are doing this, not because they adopted his opinion but it seems to have no choice when you have to put people at home not working.
That's really interesting. You're telling the theories behind the events and business cycles that I have lived for all of these years. I just have seen it as the normal ebbs and flows of our economy -- time after time. It's like living on an earthquake fault line. Disruptive events of varying levels are expected and almost predictable.

This financial moment for me started about 4 years ago... when I felt the earth under my feet getting ready to move again. While the people around me were taking on huge RE mortgages, I was retiring debt. They kept telling me about how they were using leverage in RE. I was retorting by telling them about 1980 -- when suddenly the interest rates went to 21% and 22% to curb inflation. And about the 1990s in Los Angeles where we had a decade-long recession in the RE market -- during which most of my friends who were heavily leveraged went bankrupt. The people around me dismissed me and my warnings. I was stupid and I didn't understand the RE business. And then the virus hit last year with a dull thud. It rocked their little worlds really hard. I'm here and still standing.
 

Kid

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Just to clear this up, so we all know, I am the real and God of the fasltane forum.

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When politicians start taking something into their own hands its time to worry.
But go ahead,hodl, increase in assets rarely is correlates with increase in iq anyway.
 
D

Deleted78083

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Money supply is created via fractional reserve banking, meaning I lend out the same dollar ten times, 10x-ing the money supply.

The Fed acquires assets (other people's debt) and pays for them with money created out of thin air. The interest and principe are then paid back as you described, so the Fed makes money off of lending money that they created from nothing.

The system does not work, this is easily seen by charting the value of the dollar since 1913 (or similarly in any central banking system). When the Fed creates money they are stealing value from other people's savings.

Another way it doesn't work: the system diverts investment into less productive projects and it distorts prices, sending confusing signals to entrepreneurs, who then make bad investments. This is the cause of business cycles.

If the system worked you could just save cash instead of investing in stocks, etc. And we wouldn't have boom-bust business cycles.

The system works if you are a banker and you want to steal value without being productive.
Thank you, this is entirely correct.

@thechosen1 if you listen to MacroVoices episode 265, they explain this whole thing.

They also explain that the FED wont be able to keep on printing as they run out of debt to swap...until they find out a new way to do so ofc.
 

Primeperiwinkle

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We need a Thunderdome on the forum where ppl can go to argue. I will bring snacks.
 

Raoul Duke

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Basically, the economy we have (not the one I want) is Keynesian. Inflation is the name of the game and debt is pretty much the formula.

It’s not the only way, but it works.

Now, how long that economic system can last is a whole other political debate that we really don’t need on the forum. I know I and many here think printing money Willy Nilly is stupid.

But they’re doing it. So what do you do with that information to get rich?


Call your representatives. Tell him to vote for Biden on his new tax plan. Tax the wealthy. UBI BABY!!!
 

Tom H.

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I got sucked into this quite badly when I was young. Reading all the economics books, arguing with people online about banking, going through page after page of Wikipedia, history and so on.

In the end I realized it was such an appalling waste of my time. It doesn't matter one bit what the "real way" an economy works is, nor the "correct way" a given part of it should work. It doesn't care, those in power aren't concerned, the opinion of a peasant is valuable only to him and will change nothing.

Really it's a kind of indulgence in "fake aristocracy", that because I can enjoy my time doing these academic musings, I'm not so poor. But actually I was poor, and those musings were only distractions from that.

The only thing that ever actually mattered was the size of my bank account. Not whether it's "fractional reserve" one, nor if it's "backed by gold", not if the state's policies reduce its real interest rate. All of those things are trivial and distractions to the cold hard self-responsible numbers: how much is it, how much is coming in a week.

Is it true that money should be gold? Yes, but it won't be. Is it true fractional reserve banking causes problems? No (cash reserve requirements actually arise from competitive interbank clearing needs and not from statutes as most people mistakenly believe), but so what? Is it true the state's economic policies are foolish? Of course, but not for them, so it's screaming into the wind.

Hence I think the key question is more: "how does my economy work?".
I almost agree with you, except that understanding how things actually work has informed many of my life decisions.

We are NOT in a Keynesian economy, there is no such thing. We are in an economy massively manipulated by Keynesians, but that doesn't change the principles of how things work. The Keynesian interference leads to certain results, which can be predicted and understood by applying praxeology.

Saying the economy doesn't matter is like saying saying global politics don't matter... Maybe I can't do anything about it, but I can certainly adjust my own personal decisions.
 

thechosen1

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We are NOT in a Keynesian economy, there is no such thing. We are in an economy massively manipulated by Keynesians, but that doesn't change the principles of how things work. The Keynesian interference leads to certain results, which can be predicted and understood by applying praxeology.
Good point.

I don’t like how these politicians and economists manipulate our economy, currency, etc. I don’t like the fact that the Fed now owns corporate bonds. I don’t like the high taxes. I don’t like a lot of things.

But when you’re in execution mode, you gotta know what’s happening and deal with it, even the parts you hate.

Dealing with debt and taxes is something that sucks about business but is essential.

Like being a plumber and dealing with shit in the toilet. Or being in HVAC and finding dead rats. Fixing bugs in your software. Sucks, but ya gotta do it to succeed.

Now if you want to run for office, I think I’d probably vote for you ;)
 

Timmy C

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thechosen1

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thechosen1

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For the sake of the question, assume my business is creating real value, and so are the employees, which is why I am paying them.

Now getting back to the topic: what happens to all this debt?
 

WJK

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I highly disagree. Respect is earned, despite that, I gave him years of respect. He was not even close to worth it.

J has a MASSSIVE people problem. The most important thing in business is making it bigger than you. Leadership. The leverage that gains you. Inspiring others. Lifting them up.

He does nothing, but shit on people. I simply don’t like people like that and I felt like speaking my actual mind instead of wasting energy coming up with some more “respectful” way of typing it. My patience and my filter on this has long been worn thin. I will fully admit that I threw the first punch here, I was aware when I did it.

Respecting someone, just because, is a ridiculous notion. I’m past that point in life where I need to be scolded about respect. To say I don’t care what J Scott thinks of me, my businesses, or my radio show would be an understatement. I don’t need his approval or respect (which he won’t give anyone anyway). I’m doing just fine without it.
I wasn't trying to scold you. I was saying that I hate to watch two adults having a personal fight with each other on this forum. Is there any middle ground for either of you? If you guys feel that you must fight -- go for it. Just remember that there is time and place for everything.
 

Timmy C

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Just to clear this up, so we all know, I am the real and God of the fasltane forum.

My palms are so sweaty she's nervous..
When I cash those billion-dollar checks I know you look at me like a goIMG_20210424_025959.jpgd.

Like don't, like the future.
Like elongate

Few
 

thechosen1

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I wasn’t being sarcastic. I really want a section of the forum to be titled ‘Thunderdome’ then when anybody wants to get into it they can just go there and we can vote on who we think won.
Haha that would be entertaining. I don’t like the idea of someone “winning” an argument though, because in many ways, opinions cannot win or lose. So you fall to who had the best burn or roast. Which is really kind of stupid.
 

Timmy C

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Yea they’d give each other some little bites and get bruised egos, maybe. Meanwhile, keeping a record of who fights who and says what would benefit the circus. We’d be able to see how often somebody acts like a dick, who won’t listen to whom, and who fails to back up their claims. I mean, at the end of the day unless we all share bank accounts it’s he said she said anyways. Might as well make it entertaining.
I can totally share a bank account and fudge the numbers.

The real OG will have arrived.

Yo yo yo homies, so, wanna know how to do this?

Course for sale in forum bio.
 

peddletothemetal

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I got sucked into this quite badly when I was young. Reading all the economics books, arguing with people online about banking, going through page after page of Wikipedia, history and so on.

In the end I realized it was such an appalling waste of my time. It doesn't matter one bit what the "real way" an economy works is, nor the "correct way" a given part of it should work. It doesn't care, those in power aren't concerned, the opinion of a peasant is valuable only to him and will change nothing.

Really it's a kind of indulgence in "fake aristocracy", that because I can enjoy my time doing these academic musings, I'm not so poor. But actually I was poor, and those musings were only distractions from that.

The only thing that ever actually mattered was the size of my bank account. Not whether it's "fractional reserve" one, nor if it's "backed by gold", not if the state's policies reduce its real interest rate. All of those things are trivial and distractions to the cold hard self-responsible numbers: how much is it, how much is coming in a week.

Is it true that money should be gold? Yes, but it won't be. Is it true fractional reserve banking causes problems? No (cash reserve requirements actually arise from competitive interbank clearing needs and not from statutes as most people mistakenly believe), but so what? Is it true the state's economic policies are foolish? Of course, but not for them, so it's screaming into the wind.

Hence I think the key question is more: "how does my economy work?".
 

thechosen1

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I got sucked into this quite badly when I was young. Reading all the economics books, arguing with people online about banking, going through page after page of Wikipedia, history and so on.

In the end I realized it was such an appalling waste of my time. It doesn't matter one bit what the "real way" an economy works is, nor the "correct way" a given part of it should work. It doesn't care, those in power aren't concerned, the opinion of a peasant is valuable only to him and will change nothing.

Really it's a kind of indulgence in "fake aristocracy", that because I can enjoy my time doing these academic musings, I'm not so poor. But actually I was poor, and those musings were only distractions from that.

The only thing that ever actually mattered was the size of my bank account. Not whether it's "fractional reserve" one, nor if it's "backed by gold", not if the state's policies reduce its real interest rate. All of those things are trivial and distractions to the cold hard self-responsible numbers: how much is it, how much is coming in a week.

Is it true that money should be gold? Yes, but it won't be. Is it true fractional reserve banking causes problems? No (cash reserve requirements actually arise from competitive interbank clearing needs and not from statutes as most people mistakenly believe), but so what? Is it true the state's economic policies are foolish? Of course, but not for them, so it's screaming into the wind.

Hence I think the key question is more: "how does my economy work?".
The point of the question is to uncover the best way to grow your business.

For example, my grandfather built his business primarily by doing projects for other companies and borrowing money from banks to buy equipment, real estate, and add on to our facility.

It’s important to have a plan like this and it helps if you know why it works or doesn’t work.

So no, this is not a political or philosophical question. It’s purely intended to be pragmatic and practical.
 

Bruno Calisso

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I got sucked into this quite badly when I was young. Reading all the economics books, arguing with people online about banking, going through page after page of Wikipedia, history and so on.

In the end I realized it was such an appalling waste of my time. It doesn't matter one bit what the "real way" an economy works is, nor the "correct way" a given part of it should work. It doesn't care, those in power aren't concerned, the opinion of a peasant is valuable only to him and will change nothing.

Really it's a kind of indulgence in "fake aristocracy", that because I can enjoy my time doing these academic musings, I'm not so poor. But actually I was poor, and those musings were only distractions from that.

The only thing that ever actually mattered was the size of my bank account. Not whether it's "fractional reserve" one, nor if it's "backed by gold", not if the state's policies reduce its real interest rate. All of those things are trivial and distractions to the cold hard self-responsible numbers: how much is it, how much is coming in a week.

Is it true that money should be gold? Yes, but it won't be. Is it true fractional reserve banking causes problems? No (cash reserve requirements actually arise from competitive interbank clearing needs and not from statutes as most people mistakenly believe), but so what? Is it true the state's economic policies are foolish? Of course, but not for them, so it's screaming into the wind.

Hence I think the key question is more: "how does my economy work?".
Best comment. I absolutely did the same thing, nowdays the only books on money that deserve a place in my bookshelf is on creating wealth & how to manage it.

It is important to understand how the economies work to protect and predict your finances, but don't waste time trying to master it, it is better to master business and management knowledge.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." ~ Friedrich August von Hayek

BTW, a good 101 on economics is Naked Economics by Charles Wheelan, it's quite impartial, usually economics is full of ideology, so you need to be careful on who you choose to learn from.
 

thechosen1

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Basically, the economy we have (not the one I want) is Keynesian. Inflation is the name of the game and debt is pretty much the formula.

It’s not the only way, but it works.

Now, how long that economic system can last is a whole other political debate that we really don’t need on the forum. I know I and many here think printing money Willy Nilly is stupid.

But they’re doing it. So what do you do with that information to get rich?
 

thechosen1

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Call your representatives. Tell him to vote for Biden on his new tax plan. Tax the wealthy. UBI BABY!!!
Lmao not what I meant, more like “use loans to grow your business.”

But good laugh
 

Raoul Duke

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Lmao not what I meant, more like “use loans to grow your business.”

But good laugh

You can use loans to avoid paying high taxes as well. ;)

th8TBvc.jpg
 

thechosen1

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This is a strong video to give you an introduction. However, as Ray Dalio drew this graph, it suggests that long-term, the effect of credit on productivity is 0. Meaning that long term, we'll get the same result (the straight line), as if we allowed for credit (the sine curve). Of course, this is wrong. If Dalio was right, credit should be shunned since there would be no benefit to having it, since ultimately we'd end up with the same result in terms of productivity gained (real wealth).

Screenshot 2021-04-22 at 13.27.58.png

If we were to use credit in a smart way, we should be able to get the productivity curve to increase upwards exponentially and the credit curve would effectively fluctuate around a mean that is different than the current linear productivity line. This should be accounted for in the drawing imo, since otherwise there is no explanation for why we have credit in the first place.
 

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