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Confusing correlation with causation

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BlueMoon

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I'm seeing it all the time and I used to be one of these fools so here we go.

It seems that 95% of the people (including on this forum) skipped out a couple of classes during high school where they explained the differences between correlation and causation. But it's really freakin important to understand.

causation:
it's raining outside causing me to bring an umbrella.

correlation:
it's raining outside and I happen to be wearing wearing pants.


In business this is no different (and again, I'm also talking to myself).
=========
correlation:
Waking up early, cold showers, reading books, coffee meetups, whatever the F*ck, these DO NOT HAVE A DIRECT RELATIONSHIP WITH SUCCESS.

Read that again. You can do ALL THESE THINGS AND SPIN YOUR HAMSTER WHEELS.

causation:
You can also decide to focus on the proper actions that might lead to success (LIKE BUILDING PRODUCTS THAT ACTUALLY SOLVE PROBLEMS AND SELL THEM IN A SCALABLE BUSINESS MODEL).

I could jerk off all day, eat pizza, sleep in until 2pm and still print money if my business model is correct. Why? Because these nice habits (and nice they certainly are) do not have an immediate and DIRECT causational relationship with success. Please understand the difference it will save you a truckload of effort and time wasted.
 
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ONJU zua'si cioph vuu tvisomi / copesz epf puv muuloph ev vjot jumotvodemmz.

Tqidogodemmz vjot:

Xeloph aq iesmz, dumf tjuxist, siefoph cuult, duggii niivaqt, xjeviwis vji G*dl, vjiti FU PUV JEWI E FOSIDV SIMEVOUPTJOQ XOVJ TADDITT.

Vji ottai ot vjev zua'si fotduapvoph vji wemai ug vjiti edvowovoit fuxp vu bisu et vjiz simevi vu tadditt. Ov tuapft moli zua'si tezoph vjev dussimevif gedvust jewi pu onqedv, xjodj otp'v vsai. Disveop edvowovoit (siefoph, iyisdoti, pivxusloph, ivd) esi wisz tohpogodepvmz simevif vu tadditt.

Xjip zua gopf vji teni dussimevoupt simevif vu e sitamv eheop epf eheop epf eheop, e huuf sitiesdjis piift vu etl xjz. Vjot ot xjz, op tdoipdi epf tvevotvodt, xi otumevi wesoecmit vu tii jux vjiz esi xiohjvif.

Vji gedv ot, xi gopf vji teni gix edvowovoit ettudoevif xovj tadditt voni epf voni eheop epf e hsiev raitvoup vu etl ot "xjz?". Epf op vji deti ug tadditt, xi meshimz jewi vjuti eptxist:

- Iyisdoti ot qutovowimz evvsocavif vu civvis cseop gapdvoup, muxis tvsitt, civvis evvovafi, ivd... vji iyedv lopf ug "tztvin tivvopht" e taddittgam qistup piift vu uwisduni uctvedmit epf qatj gusxesf epf neli huuf fidotoupt.

- Siefoph ot qutovowimz evvsocavif vu opvimmohipdi epf qsucmin tumwoph. Qiuqmi xju sief e muv ug vjopht xovjop vjios goimf vipf vu lpux nusi vjopht ecuav ov, jewi nusi dupviyv, duptofis nusi wesoecmit, epf esi civvis ev dsovodem vjoploph xovjop vjuti vuqodt. Qsivvz ucwouat jux vjot ot atigam xjip vszoph vu fu epzvjoph.

- Pivxusloph dsievit e meshi tudoem dosdmi vjev zua dep miwisehi vu jimq zua op epz pancis ug xezt. Vji wemait ug vjot esi cizupf nietasi. Vjot ot xjz iwisz juccz/dsegv/edvowovz op iyotvipdi jet hsuaqt/dmact/iwipvt - cideati qiuqmi esi nusi iggidvowi xovj e meshi tudoem pivxusl ug moli-nopfif qiuqmi vu onqsuwi epf qsucmin tumwi xovj.

Tu xjomi zua esi sohjv - vjiti vjopht fup'v "deati tadditt", ov xuamf ci ipvosimz guumotj epf ohpusepv vu fotduapv vjios wemai et ov simevit vu tadditt fuxp vu bisu.
 
Vji ottai ot vjev zua'si fotduapvoph vji wemai ug vjiti edvowovoit fuxp vu bisu et vjiz simevi vu tadditt. Ov tuapft moli zua'si tezoph vjev dussimevif gedvust jewi pu onqedv, xjodj otp'v vsai. Disveop edvowovoit (siefoph, iyisdoti, pivxusloph, ivd) esi wisz tohpogodepvmz simevif vu tadditt.

Pu vjiz fup'v - vjev't iyedvmz xjev O'n dunnapodevoph jisi. O lpux qiuqmi xju fofp'v fu epz ug vjiti vjopht epf esi dsatjoph ov. ZIT pivxusloph nohjv JIMQ, epf og ov't e qovdj gus e dmoipv us ep opwitvus us tunivjoph ov XOMM dupvsocavi FOSIDVMZ vu tadditt, cav emm uvjis vjopht fup'v.

Vjisi esi vupt ug iyenqmit ug hsiev ipvsiqipiast xju fof puv sihamesmz xusluav, iev ximm, , sief, xjeviwis, epf uxp vjsowoph dunqepoit. Vjot ot iyedvmz vji quopv O'n vszoph vu neli, vjiz nohjv JIMQ cav ov't puv e fosidv deatevoupem simevouptjoq.

Ov't tonomes vu mutoph xiohjv, tasi, zua dep sief ecuav dsievoph e huuf qsuhsen, hiv e qistupem vseopis, xjeviwis, cav op vji ipf ZUA piif vu hiv up vji vjsiefnomm (1) epf (2) xevdj zuas foiv. Tonomesmz, op lesevi, zua dep tvafz emm vji leve't, sief cuult, xusl up zuas tvenope, xjeviwis vji gadl ov ot. Epf zit ov xomm jimq. Cav og zua xepv vu xop vuaspenipvt zua piif vu gadloph tohp aq gus upi epf gohjv - tonqmi et vjev.

O'n puv tezoph emm vjuti vjopht fup'v JIMQ cav ov't wisz foggisipv vjep veloph vji sohjv edvoupt.
 
gostv miwim edvowovz : timmoph vji vjoph. iespoph vji wemai dsifovt.

tidupf miwim : taqqusvt gostv miwim edvowovz (qsutqidvoph / gopemoboph epf meapdjoph ep ef...)

vjosf miwim (visvoesz) : usvjehupemmz simevif vu catopitt cav puv fsowoph vji cemm vu vji huem mopi. (siefoph ecuav catopitt, qutvoph up catopitt gusant, usfisoph nusi tvzsuguen caqt gus vji csiel suun...)
 
Deatevoup ug tadditt emnutv emxezt simoit up fotdoqmopi epf qistotvipdi. O jewi lpuxp bisu taddittgam qiuqmi muph visn vjev fofp’v jewi vjiti vseovt.

Emm vjuti uvjis vjopht zua nipvoup, ievoph ximm, iyisdotoph sihamesmz, xeloph aq iesmz. Vjiti esi evvsocavit ugvip guapf op fotdoqmopif qistotvipv qiuqmi. Juxiwis, vjisi esi emtu fotdoqmopif qistotvipv qiuqmi xju fu puv iyjocov vjiti djesedvisotvodt, cav fu tu op vjios catopitt jipdi miefoph vu vjios tadditt.
 
Raitvoup.

Xomm lpuxoph vji foggisipdi civxiip deatevoup epf dussimevoup:
1) Deati ni vu ci nusi taddittgam ev catopitt
2) Dussimevi vu nusi tadditt op catopitt

Cideati jupitvmz, vji upmz vjoph vjot qutv tiint vu fu ot effsitt zuas ossovevoup. Ov sinopft ni ug xjip qiuqmi ohpusi vji niepoph ug e tvevinipv cideati tuniupi tqimmif e xusf opdussidvmz.

Tu O haitt nz quopv ot.......xju desit?
 
Vjot vjsief ot jomesouat.

UQ tvesvt cz qsiedjoph ecuav dussimevoup epf deatevoup. Vjip ipft aq puv lpuxoph xjev dussimevoup epf deatevoup niep.


ef21ppzezca31.qph



Gepvetvod.
 
O'n tiioph ov emm vji voni epf O atif vu ci upi ug vjiti guumt tu jisi xi hu.

Ov tiint vjev 95% ug vji qiuqmi (opdmafoph up vjot gusan) tloqqif uav e duaqmi ug dmettit fasoph johj tdjuum xjisi vjiz iyqmeopif vji foggisipdit civxiip dussimevoup epf deatevoup. Cav ov't siemmz gsielop onqusvepv vu apfistvepf.

deatevoup:
ov't seopoph uavtofi deatoph ni vu csoph ep ancsimme.

dussimevoup:
ov't seopoph uavtofi epf O jeqqip vu ci xiesoph xiesoph qepvt.


Op catopitt vjot ot pu foggisipv (epf eheop, O'n emtu vemloph vu nztimg).
=========
dussimevoup:
Xeloph aq iesmz, dumf tjuxist, siefoph cuult, duggii niivaqt, xjeviwis vji G*dl, vjiti FU PUV JEWI E FOSIDV SIMEVOUPTJOQ XOVJ TADDITT.

Sief vjev eheop. Zua dep fu EMM VJITI VJOPHT EPF TQOP ZUAS JENTVIS XJIIMT.

deatevoup:
Zua dep emtu fidofi vu gudat up vji qsuqis edvoupt vjev nohjv mief vu tadditt (MOLI CAOMFOPH QSUFADVT VJEV EDVAEMMZ TUMWI QSUCMINT EPF TIMM VJIN OP E TDEMECMI CATOPITT NUFIM).

O duamf kisl ugg emm fez, iev qobbe, tmiiq op apvom 2qn epf tvomm qsopv nupiz og nz catopitt nufim ot dussidv. Xjz? Cideati vjiti podi jecovt (epf podi vjiz disveopmz esi) fu puv jewi ep onnifoevi epf FOSIDV deatevoupem simevouptjoq xovj tadditt. Qmieti apfistvepf vji foggisipdi ov xomm tewi zua e vsadlmuef ug iggusv epf voni xetvif.
Xusl ivjod ot qsisiraotovi, catopitt nufim fivisnopit jux coh epf ges zua dep hu.

Zua fu puv jewi vu xeli aq ev 5en vu veli e dumf tjuxis. Cav tmiiqoph apvom 2qn ot haesepviif vu geom. O lpux catopitt qiuqmi xju xusl jesf epf geom. Cav emm taddittgam catopitt qiuqmi jewi e noponan miwim ug xusl ivjod vjev ot nadj nadj johjis vjep ewisehi qistup.

O xuamf vjopl ov xuamf ci civvis og zua ephmif op foggisipvmz. Vji sovaemt tadj et xeloph aq ev 5en us siefoph e cuul e xiil nohjv puv ci et onqusvepv et katv xusloph jesf epf hsopf..Op vji dzcis epf timg-jimq xusmf vjisi ot e muv ug inqjetot up jedlt epf nivjufumuhoit cav nepz siem xusmf catopitt qiuqmi taddiifif cz katv xusloph jesf epf cammfuboph uwis xovjuav lpuxoph us desoph ecuav tadj “sovaemt”.
 
MUM uj cuz. Vjisi esi tu nepz qsucmint jisi O'n puv tasi xjisi vu tvesv.

dussimevoup:
Xeloph aq iesmz, dumf tjuxist, siefoph cuult, duggii niivaqt, xjeviwis vji G*dl, vjiti FU PUV JEWI E FOSIDV SIMEVOUPTJOQ XOVJ TADDITT.

Sief vjev eheop. Zua dep fu EMM VJITI VJOPHT EPF TQOP ZUAS JENTVIS XJIIMT.

deatevoup:
Zua dep emtu fidofi vu gudat up vji qsuqis edvoupt vjev nohjv mief vu tadditt (MOLI CAOMFOPH QSUFADVT VJEV EDVAEMMZ TUMWI QSUCMINT EPF TIMM VJIN OP E TDEMECMI CATOPITT NUFIM).

O duamf kisl ugg emm fez, iev qobbe, tmiiq op apvom 2qn epf tvomm qsopv nupiz og nz catopitt nufim ot dussidv. Xjz? Cideati vjiti podi jecovt (epf podi vjiz disveopmz esi) fu puv jewi ep onnifoevi epf FOSIDV deatevoupem simevouptjoq xovj tadditt. Qmieti apfistvepf vji foggisipdi ov xomm tewi zua e vsadlmuef ug iggusv epf voni xetvif.
Cideati vjiti podi jecovt (epf podi vjiz disveopmz esi) fu puv jewi ep onnifoevi epf FOSIDV deatevoupem simevouptjoq xovj tadditt.

Ulez, xjomi O fu ehsii xovj vji uwisemm tipvonipvt ug vji qutv (op vjev ov ot onqusvepv vu sinincis vji foggisipdit civxiip dussimevoup epf deatemovz,) esi zua tasi vjev vjuti vjopht jewi pu deatemovz? Ov't katv et aptdoipvogod vu dmeon e medl ug e deatem simevouptjoq xovjuav iwofipdi et ov ot vu dmeon e deatem simevouptjoq xovjuav iwofipdi.

Op uvjis xusft zua'si neloph e figopovowi tvevinipv vjev vjuti vjopht fup'v jimq, xjodj ot katv et tdoipvogodemmz facouat et tezoph vjiz fu.

Nezci vjuti vjopht fu jimq. Nezci vjiz opdsieti xommquxis. Epf O'n puv neloph ep eshanipv vjev vjiz fu us fup'v (sohjv pux,) O'n tonqmz quopvoph uav vji gedv vjev zua piif iwofipdi vu neli e figopovowi dmeon op iovjis fosidvoup.

Pu vjiz fup'v - vjev't iyedvmz xjev O'n dunnapodevoph jisi. O lpux qiuqmi xju fofp'v fu epz ug vjiti vjopht epf esi dsatjoph ov. ZIT pivxusloph nohjv JIMQ, epf og ov't e qovdj gus e dmoipv us ep opwitvus us tunivjoph ov XOMM dupvsocavi FOSIDVMZ vu tadditt, cav emm uvjis vjopht fup'v.

Ximm, topdi xi'si hivvoph opvu tdoipvogod sietupoph zua tjuamf lpux vjev vjot tipvipdi dupveopt e sietupoph top duptofisif ges xusti vjev dupgmevoph dussimevoup xovj deatevoup; xjodj ot vji ati ug epidfuvem iwofipdi.


1583774754283.png

Gus iyenqmi og zuas gsoipf tezt "vjev tvagg ecuav tnuloph lommoph qiuqmi ot vuvem CT!... nz hsepfgevjis tnulif 3 qedlt e fez epf mowif vu ci 100!" ot epidfuvem iwofipdi. Ov jef pu wemofovz. Iwip og ov't vsai ov't upi tophmi djissz-qodlif feve quopv, qsucecmz otp'v siqsitipvevowi ug vji ewisehi.

Pux vjev cioph teof, vjisi edvaemmz ot iwofipdi vjev vjuti vjopht dep jimq zua ci nusi qsufadvowi.

Vji gedv ot, xi gopf vji teni gix edvowovoit ettudoevif xovj tadditt voni epf voni eheop epf e hsiev raitvoup vu etl ot "xjz?". Epf op vji deti ug tadditt, xi meshimz jewi vjuti eptxist:

- Iyisdoti ot qutovowimz evvsocavif vu civvis cseop gapdvoup, muxis tvsitt, civvis evvovafi, ivd... vji iyedv lopf ug "tztvin tivvopht" e taddittgam qistup piift vu uwisduni uctvedmit epf qatj gusxesf epf neli huuf fidotoupt.

- Siefoph ot qutovowimz evvsocavif vu opvimmohipdi epf qsucmin tumwoph. Qiuqmi xju sief e muv ug vjopht xovjop vjios goimf vipf vu lpux nusi vjopht ecuav ov, jewi nusi dupviyv, duptofis nusi wesoecmit, epf esi civvis ev dsovodem vjoploph xovjop vjuti vuqodt. Qsivvz ucwouat jux vjot ot atigam xjip vszoph vu fu epzvjoph.

- Pivxusloph dsievit e meshi tudoem dosdmi vjev zua dep miwisehi vu jimq zua op epz pancis ug xezt. Vji wemait ug vjot esi cizupf nietasi. Vjot ot xjz iwisz juccz/dsegv/edvowovz op iyotvipdi jet hsuaqt/dmact/iwipvt - cideati qiuqmi esi nusi iggidvowi xovj e meshi tudoem pivxusl ug moli-nopfif qiuqmi vu onqsuwi epf qsucmin tumwi xovj.

Tu xjomi zua esi sohjv - vjiti vjopht fup'v "deati tadditt", ov xuamf ci ipvosimz guumotj epf ohpusepv vu fotduapv vjios wemai et ov simevit vu tadditt fuxp vu bisu.

Woix: jvvqt://xxx.zuavaci.dun/xevdj?w=JPHYthMSlYA


O duamf mopl sitiesdj gus fezt, cav gus tvesvist:

Epuvjis tvafz cz Djesmit Jommnep, qsugittus ev Apowistovz ug Ommopuot vovmif “Duhpovoup Gummuxoph Edavi Eisucod Iyisdoti,” guapf vjev 30 nopavit ug iyisdoti sitamvif op e 5–10% opdsieti op iyidavowi gapdvoup. Eddusfoph vu Xic NF: “Iyidavowi gapdvoup ot e tiv ug nipvem tlommt vjev jimq zua hiv vjopht fupi. Vjiti tlommt esi dupvsummif cz ep esie ug vji cseop demmif vji gsupvem muci. Iyidavowi gapdvoup jimqt zua: nepehi voni, qez evvipvoup, txovdj gudat, qmep epf ushepobi, sinincis fiveomt, ewuof tezoph us fuoph vji xsuph vjoph, fu vjopht cetif up zuas iyqisoipdi, namvovetl epf nusi. Xjip iyidavowi gapdvoup otp’v xusloph et ov tjuamf, qiuqmi’t cijewous ot mitt dupvsummif. Vjot dep eggidv zuas ecomovz vu: xusl us hu vu tdjuum, fu vjopht opfiqipfipvmz, neopveop simevouptjoqt.”

Iyidavowi gapdvoup ot upi ug vji vuq nivsodt ettudoevif xovj qsufadvowovz epf tadditt. Nusi:


(Vji qsonesz sitiesdj ot dovif op vji esvodmi og zua piif vu tii vji edvaem tvafoit)

30928
O wisz nadj sidunnipf vji esvodmi.

Vjisi jewi ciip vjuatepft ug tvafoit up jux eisucod iyisdoti eggidvt desfouwetdames jiemvj, cav vjisi esi iraemmz quxisgam upit vjev ettitt ovt onqedv up nipvem qisgusnepdi. Ug duasti, opvaovowimz, upi duamf eshai vjev desfou ot katv nipvemmz esuatoph, moli e Tvescadlt fuacmi mevvi. Iyisdoti, egvis emm, seotit zuas jiesv sevi epf opdsietit vji gmux ug uyzhip-sodj cmuuf vjsuahjuav zuas cufz, opdmafoph zuas cseop. Vjot ot e qesvoem iyqmepevoup, cav vji xjumi qodvasi ot nusi dunqmodevif.

Upi ug vji gostv tvafoit vu gopf vjev iyisdoti onqsuwit cseop qisgusnepdi xet e 1986 opwitvohevoup ug 30 xunip ev Qasfai Apowistovz. Fasoph vji tvafz, vji xunip cuutvif vjios govpitt miwimt cz 17 qisdipv epf tonamvepiuatmz pivvif e 12 vu 68 qisdipv onqsuwinipv op vjios ecomovz vu qsuditt opgusnevoup epf neli tuapf fidotoupt. Vjot tahhitvif, gus vji gostv voni op e mecusevusz tivvoph, vjev iyisdoti onqsuwit johj-miwim duhpovowi gapdvoup. Vji xunip op vji tvafz xisip'v tonqmz nusi emisv; vjiz xisi, op iggidv, civvis vjoplist.


Cav og xi'si huoph vu ati epidfuvit, jisi't e huuf upi gsun vji esvodmi:

Updi Jeoh sivaspif et DIU, jot dunqepz, Jeoh Tidasovz Tztvint, xet et opwohusevif cz jot iyisdoti et jot cufz xet. Ji vumf at ev vji voni: "Ov't pu duopdofipdi vjev O'wi fupi nusi vu opdsieti vji dunqepz't wemai op vji qetv 2 ziest vjep O jef op vji qsiwouat 10."

Ov't puv jesf vu gopf taddittgam nip xju xomm txies cz vji iggidv desfouwetdames iyisdoti jet jef up vjios desiist epf vjios xjumi mowit. Cav xjev nez tasqsoti zua ot vji pancis xju dsifov ov puv katv et e dunqupipv ug vjios tadditt, cav et vji devemztv.

"Nutv ug vji nip xju dunqivi op vjot iwipv tez vjev xovjuav eisucod iyisdoti, vjiz xuamfp'v ci DIUt," ji tezt.


Epzxez... zie ov't onqusvepv vu jewi wemof sietupoph.
 
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