China at Number 1

[tchandy]

An interesting read on China.

Tom

China at No. 1 -- already - CNN.com

 

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[Darkside]

All of these areas where China is now #1 are meaningless because their population is much larger than the United States. For instance, they have 420 million internet users whereas the United States only has 310 million people period. I'd be willing to bet though that over 90% of Americans use the internet whereas 420 million people is about 33% of the Chinese population so in terms of the percentage of people who have internet access, America blows China away. China's GDP won't surpass the GDP of the United States until 2035, at which point they will have 4x the population of the United States which means that Chinese people will be 1/4th as wealthy as Americans on an individual basis.

 

[tchandy]

China's GDP won't surpass the GDP of the United States until 2035, at which point they will have 4x the population of the United States which means that Chinese people will be 1/4th as wealthy as Americans on an individual basis.

25 years goes by pretty fast. I've seen just over 30 years go by and have seen a lot of change in such a short time period. I visited Korea in 1982 and then went back again in 1995 and it was like night and day. From a country with a few buildings and plenty of taxis Korea turned into a country with skyscrpaers like NYC, personal cars, pagers (they were the in thing at this time), and companies competing with the US on a national scale. The point I was making is if we're not careful we'll be #2 even though it could be several years down the road.

 

[Guest3722A]

Something that kinda concerns me too about China companies that are publicly traded is the fact that seeing that this enormous growth the country is experiencing, it kinda has a wild west feel to it with those who are accountable to their share holders. What I mean by this is their accounting standards have some slippery slopes and many companies that were once very strong on the balance sheet and had strong momentum are now facing class action law suits. Currently the one that comes to mind is RINO. This is one I doubled on last year. Another one I made a 50% return on was FUQI. Also, faced law suits and crashed.

I like the fact that there are parts of China that are turning/starting to feel Capitalist, but I also think that they have a ways to go.

For the record, I currently own a Chinese stock.

 

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[Darkside]

25 years goes by pretty fast. I've seen just over 30 years go by and have seen a lot of change in such a short time period. I visited Korea in 1982 and then went back again in 1995 and it was like night and day. From a country with a few buildings and plenty of taxis Korea turned into a country with skyscrpaers like NYC, personal cars, pagers (they were the in thing at this time), and companies competing with the US on a national scale. The point I was making is if we're not careful we'll be #2 even though it could be several years down the road.

South Korea experienced that tremendous growth but they were starting out at a very low point. Once a nation gets to the level of development of a United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, etc. they face brand new challenges that a developing nation doesn't face, like providing jobs for people who lost their jobs due to either outsourcing or because new technologies made their position obsolete.

There's also the dilemma of an aging workforce that needs to be replaced, which is something both Japan and the United States are dealing with right now, with us it's the boomer generation. China will continue to have tremendous growth over the next century but then they will reach a point where the same sorts of challenges that are facing the United States will confront them and people will be talking about how some emerging nation is superior to China because they're experiencing rapid growth.

The positive for people like us when it comes to emerging markets like China is that there's a lot of room to provide products and services to them; in that sense it is like the wild west right now and those who get there first will make a tremendous amount of money. However, the high government regulations and also the lack of trust is one thing that would discourage me from starting a business in China or catering to Chinese businesses. At any point the Chinese government can decide to nationalize your business and then you're screwed because all the work you did was stolen from you.

The upside to investing and starting businesses in the United States and Western Europe is lower but at least you can rest easy knowing that your money/assets are safe. I trust the United States government, Japan, South Korea, and most European governments not to screw me over but I don't trust the communist Chinese.

 

[Guest3722A]

Do the statements by Li Keqiang in this article seem to be manipulative?



China's GDP is man-made, unreliable: top leader | Reuters

 

[ramy98]

China's GDP won't surpass the GDP of the United States until 2035, at which point they will have 4x the population of the United States which means that Chinese people will be 1/4th as wealthy as Americans on an individual basis.

I beg to differ, if I am wrong please let me know...

The American people are BROKE... Personally broke, broke on the local and state governement levels, broke at the federal level..

The average Chinese person has a savings rate of like 40 or 45%....

 

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[max momo]

Ramy98 - hyperbole regarding America being broke. Our debt/GDP has been at this ratio in the past. The US holds an incredible amount of facility and infrastructure assets; very productive farmland; and incredible natural resource wealth. Don't believe the hype.

 

[Russ H]

Ramy98 - hyperbole regarding America being broke. Our debt/GDP has been at this ratio in the past. The US holds an incredible amount of facility and infrastructure assets; very productive farmland; and incredible natural resource wealth. Don't believe the hype.

Hype?

Here I thought it was conspiracy theories!! :smxB:

:beatdeadhorse5:

(it's nice to hang out in a place that is relatively free of this hyperbole, thanks max)