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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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biophase

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Yes, may start DCAing in soon.
As a casual crypto guy, I’ve lost faith in it. I think that many people have lost confidence in crypto and will not be jumping back in to buy more until it shows it can stabilize itself.

Normally with a stock, if it drops and drops but I still have confidence in the company I would buy the dips or DCA.

So I ask myself, what price would BTC have to be for me to get back in? My answer is whatever price it can stick to for at least 6-12 months. It just feels like it’s slowly dropping each week and there’s no bottom in sight. Same with ETH.

Disclaimer, I had about 1% net worth in Crytpo. Now about .4% LOL. I was trying to get to about 5% by DCA.
 

Xeon

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how we all feeling?

Sell the house, assets, cars, pets, wife, kids, savings, everything and go ALL IN on crypto, buy the dip and tread where others are fearful to. Ignore the market and charts and diamond hands all the way. WAGMI.
 

YanC

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As a casual crypto guy, I’ve lost faith in it. I think that many people have lost confidence in crypto and will not be jumping back in to buy more until it shows it can stabilize itself.

Normally with a stock, if it drops and drops but I still have confidence in the company I would buy the dips or DCA.

So I ask myself, what price would BTC have to be for me to get back in? My answer is whatever price it can stick to for at least 6-12 months. It just feels like it’s slowly dropping each week and there’s no bottom in sight. Same with ETH.

Disclaimer, I had about 1% net worth in Crytpo. Now about .4% LOL. I was trying to get to about 5% by DCA.
I'm in a similar spot. Casual crypto guy too. Had around 2% of net worth in it. I believe in the tech though, and love its promise. I'll keep only a tiny part of my net worth in it as an asymmetric bet.

I feel like when people lose faith is precisely when one should buy. Worst case scenario it goes to zero, we move on and it won't change my life.
 
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ramonorencio

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Do y’all think BTC will survive?
As of now crypto is cool to trade it but I don’t find it useful unless the local currency is worth nothing.
 

EmotionEngine

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Sell the house, assets, cars, pets, wife, kids, savings, everything and go ALL IN on crypto, buy the dip and tread where others are fearful to. Ignore the market and charts and diamond hands all the way. WAGMI.
Pets drop in value real quick anyway, get rid of them! Praise be to the almighty bitcoin! :rofl:
 
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Ing

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Psychology is the same at recurring high volantile markets.
Because of that I beliefe, not the price is most important, but the time.
Motor of crypto cycle is BTC halfing, so times after halfing are the same more likely than not.
Thats why I believe, in Oktober / November this year minimum will be arrived.

And as long some of you still beliefe in Cryptos, its too early to buy! ;)
 

GPM

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Sell the house, assets, cars, pets, wife, kids, savings, everything and go ALL IN on crypto, buy the dip and tread where others are fearful to. Ignore the market and charts and diamond hands all the way. WAGMI.

Someone did offer me $20 for my son today when he was screaming his head off at a garage sale because I would not get him a 7th truck.
 

EmotionEngine

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Psychology is the same at recurring high volantile markets.
Because of that I beliefe, not the price is most important, but the time.
Motor of crypto cycle is BTC halfing, so times after halfing are the same more likely than not.
Thats why I believe, in Oktober / November this year minimum will be arrived.

And as long some of you still beliefe in Cryptos, its too early to buy! ;)
I agree that its too early. Although timing may be different in my opinion. In the U.S. at least we saw the GDP had decreased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022. I believe we will be down in the 2nd QTR which is at the end of the month. That will officially start the recession here in the U.S. but its really a global thing and may be around for 18-24 months.

(Not financial advice)
 
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Timmy C

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Not if goes to 9k. I stress everyone to take caution when trying to time this bottom. It could be more of trying to catch falling knives. No one knows... Heck, its already 184 away from being in the 18k realm as of my writing.

If Michael Saylor dumps it will be even lower, I'm sure a margin call is real likely for him now.

If you are young there's no better time.
Time the bottom you say.
You mean how we all perfectly timed the top, like that?
 

Antifragile

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heavy_industry

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Time the bottom you say.
You mean how we all perfectly timed the top, like that?
b90769b97060edb963ca62a48e6713cf.jpg
 
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Ing

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If you are young there's no better time.
Time the bottom you say.
You mean how we all perfectly timed the top, like that?
I sold my stocks in Oktober 21 and my cryptos in November
If you are young there's no better time.
Time the bottom you say.
You mean how we all perfectly timed the top, like that?
dont know if its different with some zeros more, but I was lucky to time it quite good(selling coins and stocks) I m not afraid of timing.

(Btw, sold my busd when we talked about it)
 

MJ DeMarco

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Just logged into my crypto account for the first time in months ... it is down 71% from the high. This represents the worst investment I ever made in my half-century existence on the planet. And at its high (assuming the good fortune that I had the knowledge to sell at the high) it would NOT have represented my best investment in my life, not even likely in the top 5.

That duality says all I need to know.

For me, crypto assets on the retail side (not as an entrepreneur) merely represents an insurance policy. In fact, they act more like long-term options (leaps) on fiat currency, like buying puts.

EDIT: Please review my note below, the above is a misinterpretation.
 

Kevin88660

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3AC is holding large positions of eth and is on the Verge of losing the position to margin call soon.

If 3ac goes down a lot of liability will drive other crypto firms bankrupt too.

3ac also acted as custodians for running funds. There funds are now “missing” as 3ac took it to cover their own margin call.

I would think no bottom in sight until a big flash crash happen.

Every relief rally is a good chance for this firms to upload their overstretched Leveraged long positions.

This means that a price recovery is impossible until these firms fully unload their positions, which is like impossible because they are literally the bulk of the market.

No chance up, waiting for an inevitable big dump..
 
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Kevin88660

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Crypto trading firms have been liquidating 9 digits of trades in order to pay for interest on margin debt.

Can you imagine the size of leveraged positions?

Short every bounce of eth to earn cash to buy at sub 400 eth..

Not Financial Advice.
 

Antifragile

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When I don’t know what to do, I just do nothing.

Rules that helped me feel less depressed about this situation:
1. Didn’t leverage for any crypto investment
2. Prepared to be wrong and only put in what I felt I could lose without impacting my life.

But I got everything else all wrong, so here we sit (like MJ, down 70%+ and don’t quite see it being bottom either). Brutal.

The challenge with trading and trying to make up some of these (not a loss until you sell) is that we could all be wrong a few more times and make it worse - only to then have to calculate it all for the tax man!
 

Antifragile

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"Look at an MIT graduating class of engineers," O'Leary said. "The smartest people want to work on the [block]chain. So you've got the majority of the best intellectual capital in the world solving poor outcomes on the chain — why wouldn't you expect that to work?"

 
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EmotionEngine

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3AC is holding large positions of eth and is on the Verge of losing the position to margin call soon.

If 3ac goes down a lot of liability will drive other crypto firms bankrupt too.

3ac also acted as custodians for running funds. There funds are now “missing” as 3ac took it to cover their own margin call.

I would think no bottom in sight until a big flash crash happen.

Every relief rally is a good chance for this firms to upload their overstretched Leveraged long positions.

This means that a price recovery is impossible until these firms fully unload their positions, which is like impossible because they are literally the bulk of the market.

No chance up, waiting for an inevitable big dump..

Screenshot 2022-06-19 094753.jpg
I think people believe that was 3AC. I'm no expert on such things though.
 

Ing

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Just logged into my crypto account for the first time in months ... it is down 71% from the high. This represents the worst investment I ever made in my half-century existence on the planet. And at its high (assuming the good fortune that I had the knowledge to sell at the high) it would NOT have represented my best investment in my life, not even likely in the top 5.

That duality says all I need to know.

For me, crypto assets on the retail side (not as an entrepreneur) merely represents an insurance policy. In fact, they act more like long-term options (leaps) on fiat currency, like buying puts.
1.The question is, when did you buy the assets? Why did you buy them? At that time?
2. why do you see Crypto assets as an insurance? Where do you know, that its real?

Seriously:if I had your ability and bite to build a fastlane business, I would build a business with my money!
 

Trevor Kuntz

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MJ DeMarco

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1.The question is, when did you buy the assets? Why did you buy them? At that time?

Actually I misspoke. I'm down 71% from the high. Taking into account "basis", I'm likely still up since I've been buying for years. I'm just not used to assets declining in value 70+% in a matter of months.
 

fastlane_dad

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Actually I misspoke. I'm down 71% from the high. Taking into account "basis", I'm likely still up since I've been buying for years. I'm just not used to assets declining in value 70+% in a matter of months.
Many 'singular' stocks / investments plunged at or near 70% the last few months. You can't single out a single stock or asset, and look at it very 'miopic-ly' for a span of months. Even some solid heavy hitters (take amazon) were down as much ~50% off the top in recent days!!

That's more akin to gambling. If we zoom out a bit - at todays' numbers - even something like bitcoin over just the last five years is up 700%. Amazon over 100%. S&P 500 over same duration is up over 50%. The risks and reward ratio seem to still be very in line.

The 'corrections' and 'risk' we are seeing here will yield to higher rewards and gains down the line. You can't have one without the other, and it was due time to course correct a bit and for the economy to keep working it's magic.

It's fine to call a 'loss' on a gamble, but let's not keep confusing recent noise with proper long term 'investment' allocation and results.
 
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theautismgenius

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Do you guys think that bitcoin is actually going to go up again as we can see cryptocurrencies crashed a lot this year a lot of people lost their home on terra luna. But pretty sure lots of people just gamble their life's saving and hopefully I didn't invest on the crypto yet because of the volatility and there's lots of lack of control but do you guys think that we are in a bubble and that bitcoin will go to the moon for the year 2023 ? Maybe I sound a little optimistic but when there's a big crash usually it follows a comeback and assets grows bigger than ever like a cycle
 

21elnegocio

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I sold my stocks in Oktober 21 and my cryptos in November

dont know if its different with some zeros more, but I was lucky to time it quite good(selling coins and stocks) I m not afraid of timing.

(Btw, sold my busd when we talked about it)
Are you getting back into crypto?
 
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21elnegocio

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This is a good guy to follow, not your typical influencer hyping up BTC. IMO based on what has been happing in crypto there is tons of fear blood on the streets thats when you take calculated risks on so called "stable coins" DCA in based on experts bottoms. Have a number in mind, dont be overoptimistic dont be a fool and think like many die hard HODLers saying BTC will hit $1 million per coin. Id say just go in with the mindset that you will double your money and get out.

This is how I see BTC I am using my ATH as my comp, I am not hoping on $100k or $500k BTC like they are saying, so lets say you buy right now at $20k, yes BTC will go down more if it breaks just know it will run up to its previous ATH which was $69k thats 3x your money and again do not hold to the "moon" and make sure the money you invest is money you can afford loosing dont be stupid.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpQFFn948gw



 

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